Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia (BI) Bulan Maret 2025 memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan atau BI-Rate tetap berada pada level 5,75%. Adapun suku bunga deposit facility tetap berada pada level 5%. Sedangkan suku bunga lending facility juga diputuskan untuk tetap pada level 6,5%.
Keputusan ini konsisten dengan upaya menjaga prakiraan inflasi 2025 dan 2026 tetap terkendali dalam sasaran 2,5±1%, mempertahankan stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah yang sesuai dengan fundamental di tengah ketidakpastian global yang tetap tinggi, dan turut mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Bank Indonesia terus mencermati prospek inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam memanfaatkan ruang penurunan BI-Rate dengan mempertimbangkan pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah.
Gubernur Bank Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo mengatakan, BI masih membuka ruang penurunan suku bunga untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini. Tetapi diperlukan waktu yang tepat, mengingat ketidakpastian global masih tinggi.
Keputusan ini konsisten dengan upaya menjaga prakiraan inflasi 2025 dan 2026 tetap terkendali dalam sasaran 2,5±1%, mempertahankan stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah yang sesuai dengan fundamental di tengah ketidakpastian global yang tetap tinggi, dan turut mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Bank Indonesia terus mencermati prospek inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam memanfaatkan ruang penurunan BI-Rate dengan mempertimbangkan pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah.
Gubernur Bank Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo mengatakan, BI masih membuka ruang penurunan suku bunga untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini. Tetapi diperlukan waktu yang tepat, mengingat ketidakpastian global masih tinggi.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Bank of Indonesia decided to hold on to the Cuan flower family at level 5.75%.
00:18The decision to hold on to the Cuan flower family was made to maintain the stability of rupiah in the midst of global uncertainty.
00:30The meeting of the Council of Governors of the Bank of Indonesia on March 18-19, 2025 decided to hold on to the Cuan flower family at level 5.75%.
00:43The Bank of Indonesia also held on to the deposit flower family at level 5% and the landing flower family at level 6.5%.
00:52The Governor of the Bank of Indonesia, Perwarjo, said that the decision was consistent with the efforts of the Bank of Indonesia in maintaining the target of inflation in 2025 and 2026 at a target of 2.5% plus minus 1%.
01:05In addition, the decision also maintained the interest rate to maintain the stability of rupiah in the midst of global uncertainty.
01:12The decision was consistent with the efforts of the Bank of Indonesia in maintaining the target of inflation in 2025 and 2026 at a target of 2.5% plus minus 1%.
01:25It also maintained the stability of the value of rupiah exchange in accordance with the fundamentals in the midst of high global uncertainty.
01:35It also pushed for sustainable economic growth.
01:41In the future, the Bank of Indonesia will continue to monitor the prospects of inflation and economic growth
01:48in taking advantage of the interest rate drop by considering the movement of the value of rupiah exchange.
01:56The Bank of Indonesia assessed that the global uncertainty will still be high in the future, especially due to the income tariff policy implemented by the US government.
02:04The US import tariff policy also has an impact on the economy in a number of countries such as India, Japan, and European regions
02:11amid domestic demand that has not yet increased significantly due to the confidence of low business and export delays.
02:17From Jakarta, Raju Padmo, Aidek Channel.
02:23Yes, viewers, to discuss our topic this time, the Bank of Indonesia has again maintained the BRT level of 5.75%.
02:29We are connected via Zoom with Mrs. Hossiana Evalita Situmorang.
02:33She is an economist at PT Bank Nanamon Indonesia TBK.
02:37Hello, Mrs. Hossiana, how are you?
02:40Hello, Mr. Assalamu'alaikum.
02:42Good morning. Thank you for your time.
02:44As mentioned earlier, the Central Bank has again maintained the BRT level of 5.75%.
02:50According to your analysis, is the decision of the Central Bank already correct
02:56when it comes to the situation, economic development conditions, domestic and global?
03:04Yes, Mr. Ian. So, with the policy of the Bank of Indonesia, which in the RDJ this month
03:09still maintains the BRT level of 5.75%,
03:14this is indeed in line with the consensus.
03:16Although there are some who think that the Bank of Indonesia needs to use the BRT.
03:21But what we want to see is the uncertainty in the global.
03:24This is again high.
03:26Because, as we have also anticipated,
03:29starting from the end of 2024 when the US was elected,
03:32until Trump was re-elected in this 2.0, facing a trade war.
03:37So, what is of concern is the value of the currency exchange.
03:40Because, if we look at it, the growth catalyst in quarter 1 is relatively good.
03:45Because we have just experienced a rise in minimum wage,
03:49UMR in the national,
03:51then there is also a disbursement of THR which is supposed to boost purchasing power.
03:57At least in quarter 1 until later in the early quarter 2.
04:00Now, back to the exchange rate.
04:02This exchange rate, if we look at it historically,
04:06from the time of Trump 1.0 until 2016-2019,
04:11the Rupiah weakened by 6-8% volatility.
04:15So, if we look at it,
04:17the Bank of Indonesia, as a central bank,
04:19needs to give confidence in the results that are attractive to investors.
04:23So, against the potential of weakening of the Rupiah exchange rate.
04:27Because, per day,
04:29the exchange rate is still the worst performance
04:35in the Asian region.
04:37Although, in terms of year-to-date depreciation,
04:39it's not far.
04:41I mean, it's only around 1.5%.
04:43That's what I'm concerned about the Bank of Indonesia
04:45to be able to provide interesting results
04:49in the middle of a relatively helpful pre-economy condition
04:52from the moment of Ramadan.
04:54Okay. Well, according to you,
04:56is the current BI rate level 5.75%
05:00still an ideal level
05:02to meet the target of inflation?
05:04How about the business world
05:06if we look at the current level?
05:11Yes, it's like the latest release.
05:14In the first half of the year,
05:16we were surprised by a fairly deep deflation
05:18and even more surprising.
05:20Actually, it's not surprising.
05:22I mean, okay, from the numbers,
05:24in terms of year-to-year,
05:26we deflated at minus 0.9%.
05:31But if we look at the contribution,
05:33it turns out that our core inflation
05:35has increased since January.
05:37So, the position per February
05:39was recorded at 2.48%.
05:41Which is the target
05:43of the National Bank
05:45and core inflation is a reflection
05:47of supply and demand.
05:49That means when the core inflation increases,
05:51demand increases,
05:53and many more.
05:55This is because of the Ramadan factor
05:57and at the beginning of the year,
05:59the interest rate also increased to a minimum.
06:01And again, is this 5.75%
06:03an ideal level?
06:05Actually, in my opinion,
06:07Indonesia has a lot of space.
06:09But again,
06:11we also want a stable exchange rate
06:13and not the worst
06:15compared to other currencies
06:17in the Asia region.
06:19Because both physically
06:21and from the outflow factor
06:23from emerging
06:25to assets that are considered
06:28safer
06:30or to destination countries
06:32that are considered more interesting
06:34are still a concern
06:36in anticipation of this trade war.
06:38Because both globally
06:40and in the Asia region,
06:42the impact of inflation
06:44is one of the main concerns.
06:46So, this is what Indonesia is looking at.
06:48How to maintain
06:50the trust of investors
06:52so that this outflow doesn't happen too much.
06:54Because we see
06:57that the outflow
06:59is around USD 1.5 billion
07:01in the equity market.
07:03This cannot be countered
07:05by what is happening
07:07from the obligation side.
07:09But according to you,
07:11the concern of the Central Bank itself
07:13is more focused on the global
07:15or domestic conditions.
07:17If we talk about inflation,
07:19we know that in the last two months
07:21there has been inflation
07:23even though we know that there is a policy
07:25How about the movement of rupiah
07:27which is still above 16,000?
07:33So, actually we see
07:35from the point of view
07:37of the value of the rupiah exchange
07:39Indonesia has already
07:41made an intervention.
07:43So, if we compare the position
07:45of the reserve in January to February
07:47around USD 2 billion
07:49one of them is used to maintain
07:51the stability of the value of the rupiah exchange.
07:54The value of the rupiah exchange
07:56should not be too significant
07:58in terms of strengthening
08:00because again
08:02if the value of the rupiah exchange
08:04is too volatile,
08:06this will cause a lot of WNC actions
08:08or also confidence
08:10from investors, market players
08:12or business players
08:14this is also relative
08:16because they will always ask
08:18what is the right time
08:20when the value of the rupiah exchange is strengthening.
08:22So, our focus is on the stability
08:24of the rupiah exchange
08:26because if we compare
08:28from the beginning of the year
08:30the rupiah is at level 16,300
08:32then it can be at level 16,600
08:34this is also relatively affected
08:36by the domestic factor
08:38so if it's domestic
08:40from a fundamental point of view
08:42this is solid
08:44but there are some things
08:46that are inevitable
08:48such as Morgan Stanley
08:51or the downgrade of the rating
08:53this is what we see
08:55as a pressure
08:57from the domestic factor
08:59which is still above us
09:01which can still be around 5%
09:03but again, the concern of Indonesia
09:05is to balance the value of the rupiah exchange
09:07so that it is not too volatile
09:09Okay, that's it
09:11if we talk about the stability of the rupiah exchange
09:13if it is too volatile
09:15it will be a problem for investors
09:17or business players
09:20for now, for the financial sector
09:22how do you see it?
09:28from the banking sector
09:30we will definitely appreciate
09:32the steps of Indonesia
09:34to be able to reduce interest rates
09:36but we also hope
09:38from the liquidity side
09:40Indonesia will also provide accommodative
09:42which also supports
09:44because if we want to trace
09:46from the development of basic credit interest rates
09:48from level 6.25%
09:50to 5.75%
09:52the SBDK position is not significant
09:54okay, we understand
09:56it takes time
09:58to reach the intermediary level
10:00to be able to
10:02accept the transition
10:04from the flow of interest
10:06but again, the concern is
10:08liquidity
10:10we know there are some views
10:12whether there may be a crowding out effect
10:14from the SRDI policy
10:17or also from the debt potential
10:19the government is in a hurry
10:21to push for more issuance
10:23government bonds
10:25but from our observation
10:27Indonesia Bank is indeed
10:29the largest net buying
10:31but we hope
10:33Indonesia Bank can also
10:35provide liquidity support
10:37even with the macro-prudential policy
10:39which has experienced an increase
10:41but if the liquidity increases
10:43we see the potential
10:45for the transition to the intermediary level
10:47towards the growth of credit
10:49the SBDK can decrease
10:51because it will be more attractive
10:53to do business to attract credit
10:55because even though it has dropped
10:5750 basis points
10:59but it is still quite challenging
11:01for the SBDK to experience a decrease
11:03okay, but if we look at
11:05the credit distribution energy
11:07as you said
11:09how do you see yourself in 2025
11:11in the last few months
11:13how do you see yourself in the next 3 months
11:15with a bear rate of 5.75%
11:17okay
11:19in fact, business balance
11:21maximizes the role of the intermediary
11:23and we also appreciate
11:25how Indonesia Bank
11:27from the SRDI side
11:29has decreased
11:31from level 7.3 to 6.4
11:33so we hope
11:35we can make the balance
11:37from the cost of fund
11:39and also from the name side
11:41because if the interest rate is high
11:43it will tend to increase
11:45from the profitability side
11:47and also the potential risk of the credit
11:49is quite challenging
11:51now, let's go back
11:53we see that the economic growth
11:55is relatively solid
11:57because actually
11:59for the interest rate of 5%
12:01because the Trump policy
12:03is not yet significant
12:05in the course of 2025
12:07because it will be implemented in April
12:09for several countries
12:11and probably
12:13the intake will be in the second half
12:15while our economic growth
12:17is relatively solid
12:19in the first half and also in the second half
12:21now, the growth rate
12:23if we look at it from the balance sheet
12:25towards the W-digit is interesting
12:27but again, I hope this uncertainty
12:29does not slow down
12:31towards the crisis
12:33now if for example the US is slowing
12:35China is not fully rebound
12:37from the risk of the credit
12:39which can be more
12:43I mean the risk of the credit
12:45can be quite challenging
12:47because we can't just
12:49distribute the credit
12:51if for example we don't consider
12:53aspects of the risk
12:55that's it
12:57is there still potential
12:59or space for the Bank of Indonesia
13:01to reduce the rate of inflation
13:03as you said earlier
13:05we will take a short break
13:07and we will be back
13:09shortly
13:35on the television screen
13:376.25% in July-August
13:39then held at 6%
13:41from September 2024
13:43until December 2024
13:45then at the beginning of the year 2025
13:47until March 2025
13:49the Bank of Indonesia
13:51still maintains the rate of inflation
13:53at 5.75%
13:55next we see
13:57how with the movement of currency exchange value
13:59towards the US dollar
14:01from 2 January
14:03until 19 March
14:05if we see
14:07the fluctuation is quite high
14:09last in 19 March
14:11at 16,528
14:13per US dollar
14:15and meanwhile
14:17how with the target of Indonesia's economic growth
14:19in 2025
14:21it is expected to touch
14:235.3%
14:25next year at 6.3%
14:27until 8%
14:29in 2029
14:31let's continue
14:33with Mrs. Hosyana Evalita Situ Morang
14:35economist at Bank Danamon
14:37Mrs. Hosyana Evalita Situ Morang
14:39if we look at the data
14:41you see how
14:43with our flower trend
14:45you see there is room
14:47for the central bank
14:49to reduce the rate of inflation
14:51but there are some factors
14:53that make it stay at 5.75%
14:55how do you see the opportunity?
14:57so
14:59if we listen to
15:01what Governor Ban Indonesia
15:03said at the RDJ this month
15:05Ban Indonesia estimated
15:07that the central bank
15:09the Fed has the potential
15:11to reduce the Fed fund rate
15:13only once
15:15and also Ban Indonesia sees that
15:17there is no urgency
15:19to rush to reduce
15:21the flower trend
15:23so to maintain the attractiveness
15:25of financial assets
15:27in domestic
15:29to maintain the exchange rate stability
15:31that's why Ban Indonesia maintains the flower trend
15:33meanwhile, if we look at the results
15:35of the FOMC meeting
15:37yesterday
15:39we see that
15:41the Fed estimates
15:43that there is a 2x potential reduction
15:45even though
15:47we see
15:49maybe, if the market estimates
15:51the potential reduction will be in June
15:53or it will continue in September
15:55so we see
15:57if this happens, 2x the Fed fund rate
15:59can be reduced by the Fed
16:01this gives a very interesting spread
16:03between the Fed fund rate
16:05which will be at 4%
16:07after it is reduced twice
16:09with Ban Indonesia at level 5.75
16:11so we estimate
16:13this can create room for Ban Indonesia
16:15to reduce the flower trend
16:17at least 1x 25 basis points
16:19in the rest of this year
16:21from the development
16:23of the Fed fund rate in the US
16:25and back again, if we look at the historical data
16:27when the Fed is estimated by the market
16:29will reduce the flower trend
16:31at least in the previous month
16:33there will be a massive inflow
16:35both in the obligation and equity
16:37of the stock market in emerging
16:39one of Indonesia
16:41and this is what we have seen since the beginning
16:43since the year 2 in the obligation market
16:45our government bonds
16:47included inflow
16:49of USD 1.2 billion
16:51this is what we see as a positive catalyst
16:53but back again
16:55still from the right
16:57because of the rating effect
16:59our stock market is outflow
17:01but we should look at
17:03this is what happened in the US
17:05it has been going on since the first half of last year
17:07so hopefully this is already
17:09approaching the bottom
17:11so it's actually going up
17:13back to the inflow
17:15but back again, still waiting
17:17how about the Trump 2.0 policy
17:19which will start
17:21on April 2
17:23that's what we must be aware of
17:25so that's why
17:27Bank Indonesia chose to maintain
17:29the flower trend even though we are actually
17:31waiting for the Fed fund rate to go down
17:33so the BI can follow
17:35what is the potential in the middle of this year?
17:37or how?
17:39yes, we see it
17:41with the assumption that the Fed
17:43can cut in June
17:45for Bank Indonesia
17:47even though the inflow has started
17:49because historically, the inflow will start
17:51in one month before the Fed cut
17:53so if in the month, the Rupiah is already
17:55strong, then we will also
17:57go through the repatriation
17:59of dividends, which the Rupiah
18:01may weaken, but
18:03the inflow that has started
18:05we hope it can boost the Rupiah
18:07so in the month,
18:09or at the end
18:11at the end of
18:13the second quarter, there is room for Bank Indonesia
18:15to maintain the flower trend
18:17but again,
18:19whether there is an inflow in our financial market
18:21net inflow
18:23and also the strengthening of the Rupiah exchange rate
18:25this is the right moment
18:27for the central bank to support
18:29economic growth
18:31if we talk about economic growth
18:33how much contribution can be made
18:35when compared to
18:37the central bank that maintains the flower trend
18:39at the current level for the future economic growth
18:41of Bank Indonesia in the future?
18:43Yes, Bank Indonesia also has
18:45tools, namely the policy
18:47of liquidity macro-prudential
18:49KLM, and this can be allocated
18:51for priority sectors that are
18:53pro-green economy and
18:55also support MSMEs
18:57or also job creation
18:59and we see in terms of
19:01transmission by intermediaries
19:03those sectors record
19:05the decrease in the flow rate
19:07based on credit, while
19:09those that are not included in the priority
19:11of KLM do not decrease
19:13in terms of SBDK
19:15and we really appreciate it
19:17so the balance has liquidity
19:19that is quite flexible
19:21for sectors
19:23if we direct
19:25the credit to the previous sectors
19:27including the priority of KLM
19:29and we also see the commitment
19:31from Bank Indonesia starting
19:33from the end of 2024
19:35even though in the middle of the SRBI
19:37it reached almost
19:391 trillion
19:41930 trillion, which is quite high
19:43but with the existence of KLM policy
19:45it can balance
19:47from the position of liquidity
19:49in the market.
19:51Okay, well, looking at the existing conditions
19:53how do you see the sectors
19:55are there still
19:57benefited by being maintained
19:59at the current level?
20:01Is there any property there
20:03to the financing sector and others?
20:05Yes, we see
20:07that the benefits are
20:09the sectors that are included
20:11in the priority
20:13to get the macro-prudential
20:15liquidity incentives
20:17and actually almost
20:19cover all sectors
20:21that are closely related
20:23to the banking business
20:25and also,
20:27even though the BBI
20:29is maintained at level 5.75
20:31but we are more
20:33focused on anticipating
20:35the continuation of liquidity
20:37so at that level,
20:39if we look at quarter 1
20:41it's quite similar to the KLM
20:43which is higher compared to
20:45the beginning of 2024
20:47there is an indication
20:49that is more convincing
20:51in the direction of improvement in 2025.
20:53Yes, and from the point of view
20:55of our economic growth target
20:57we have reached 5.3% this year
20:596.3% next year
21:01and 8.9% in 2029
21:03What is the role of the Central Bank
21:05if you look at it like that?
21:07How far can this be the framework
21:09for Indonesia's economic growth?
21:15Yes, we were hoping
21:17for the Bank of Indonesia
21:19but this is actually
21:21more due to external factors
21:23we see that the Bank of Indonesia
21:25is already very maximal
21:27so when the money can be maintained
21:29in the form of export
21:31we hope that this can support
21:33the stability of the currency exchange
21:35by providing ample liquidity in the market
21:37because if last year
21:39it faced the potential
21:41of crowding out from SRD issuance
21:43this year, the tools
21:45to maintain and support the stability
21:47of the exchange are from DHE
21:49and we hope that this can be implemented
21:51well so that our currency
21:53can be appreciated
21:55so that it opens up space for the Bank of Indonesia
21:57to reduce the flow rate
21:59How about the policy
22:01with the tax?
22:03Collaborative between
22:05monetary policy and tax
22:07to be able to maintain the activity
22:09of economic growth and industry
22:11because we know that the pressure
22:13as you said, global
22:15is quite devastating
22:17for a number of industries in the North
22:19Yes, we really appreciate
22:21the fiscal policy
22:23in the electricity discount
22:25especially in the last 10 years
22:27the impact of the increase in electricity
22:29is relatively pressing
22:31especially the lower middle class
22:33in allocating
22:35their consumption
22:37so it's not the development
22:39it's more convincing
22:41that the electricity discount
22:43is actually effective
22:45to make the lower middle class
22:47or the middle class
22:49because if we look at the KWH
22:51this is also enjoyed by those
22:53who are in the middle class
22:55even though it's already ending
22:57in February, we hope that
22:59programs that can target the middle class
23:01especially this can be re-implemented
23:03by the fiscal policy
23:05because you can imagine
23:07this electricity is something
23:09that can reach 10 to 30%
23:11from the allocation
23:13of household expenses
23:15with the discount of 50%
23:17this can encourage the household
23:19to allocate
23:21their income
23:23for things that
23:25can help their consumption
23:27that's what we appreciate
23:29Yes, the middle class
23:31and the lower middle class
23:33still need to pay attention
23:35to policies or incentives
23:37this is already ending
23:39but it's proven to cause
23:41a deflation in the last two months
23:43do you see that one policy
23:45is it actually right
23:47if we talk about the government's
23:49policies like the
23:51discount of electricity
23:55yes, actually there are many
23:57but in our opinion
23:59if the policy
24:01can minimize
24:03I mean, from the middle class
24:05this can really be transferred
24:07to the society in a system
24:09as far as we can see from the discount of electricity
24:11even though there is a subsidy
24:13there is rice assistance
24:15there is food assistance
24:17but again
24:19this is also one of the global factors
24:21with the price of food
24:23that can be maintained and also
24:25subsidized by the government
24:27this can be enjoyed by the lower middle class
24:29one of them is rice
24:31in 2023-2024
24:33it will increase by 20%
24:35and this is also for the poverty line
24:37to increase so that the average
24:39middle class will decrease
24:41this may be a concern
24:43from food security
24:45this is the main focus
24:47of the new government policy
24:49and we really appreciate this
24:51so from the food side
24:53and also from the energy and electricity side
24:55that's it
24:57food security, energy security
24:59which is the focus of the government
25:01is expected to be able to boost economic activity
25:03then create space for example
25:05for the lower middle class
25:07and is expected to be able
25:09to further increase
25:11economic activity in the lower middle class
25:13as well as economic activity
25:15in the Indonesian industry
25:17unfortunately, we are running out of time
25:19thank you very much for your time
25:21sharing and also the analysis
25:23that you have given to the audience
25:25today, congratulations on continuing
25:27your activities again, good health
25:29see you again, thank you
25:31thank you
25:33audience, I have been with you for an hour
25:35in the market review and continue to discuss
25:37your information only on IDX channel
25:39your trustworthy and comprehensive
25:41investment reference
25:43because the future must be ahead
25:45I am investor saham
25:47I am Prasetya Wibowo
25:49along with all the workers
25:51who are on duty, I bid you farewell
25:53thank you, see you
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