Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan kembali menahan suku bunga acuan di level 6,25 persen.
Dalam Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (RDG BI), Rabu (21/8/2024), suku bunga Deposit Facility juga tetap bertahan sebesar 5,5 persen dan suku bunga Lending Facility tetap di level 7 persen.
Dalam Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (RDG BI), Rabu (21/8/2024), suku bunga Deposit Facility juga tetap bertahan sebesar 5,5 persen dan suku bunga Lending Facility tetap di level 7 persen.
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TVTranscript
00:00The Domestic Necromy Growth is Still Imagined by Global Monetary Market Uncertainty
00:05Breaking News
00:08Indonesia's Domestic Necromy Growth is Still Imagined by Global Monetary Market Uncertainty
00:20You are watching Breaking News IDX Channel with me, Rosa Lencu.
00:24Domestic Necromy Growth is Still Imagined by Global Monetary Market Uncertainty
00:29The Domestic Necromy Growth is Still Imagined by Global Monetary Market Uncertainty
00:35What is the response of the Bank of Indonesia in facing this challenge?
00:41Let's see the complete statement of the results of the meeting of the Governor's Office of the Bank of Indonesia in August 2024.
00:48Honorable Vice Governor Judha Agung, Honorable Governor Aida Gudiman,
00:53and Honorable Deputy Governor Filiana Syed Hindarta,
00:56I would like to deliver the results of the meeting of the Governor's Office of the Bank of Indonesia
01:03that we held on August 21, 2024.
01:12In the two days of the meeting, we discussed and discussed the latest development assessment
01:25of the domestic economy, the monetary sector, the financial sector, and the financial system in general.
01:34With the latest developments and prospects,
01:38the future projections, and also the formulation of the balance sheet of the Bank of Indonesia policy,
01:44both in monetary policy, macro-business, and payment,
01:50I will represent the Governor's Office of the Bank of Indonesia to deliver the main points of the discussion
01:58through and from the assessment, projections, and also the development of the global economy.
02:08I will start.
02:11At least, the global financial market is beginning to reduce the risks that still need to be taken into account in the future.
02:25The global economy is expected to grow by 3.2 percent in 2024 due to the slow trend.
02:37The US economy is expected to slow down in the second semester of 2024
02:44due to the decline in domestic demand.
02:48Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is not strong and the economy in Europe continues to recover.
02:58The US economic slowdown has an impact on increasing unemployment and decreasing inflation
03:07faster towards its long-term inflation target of 2 percent.
03:16This development strongly pushes the expectation of a faster and larger Fed Fund Rate Decline than estimated.
03:27This development then caused a two-year tenor US Treasury Yield Decline
03:36which is also followed by a ten-year tenor US Treasury Yield Decline
03:42and a US Dollar Yield Decline in terms of world currency.
03:50At least, the global financial market is also beginning to reduce.
03:56These various developments push for an increase in foreign currency inflow
04:02and strengthen the eyes of developing countries, including Indonesia.
04:09In the future, there will be risks related to economic recession concerns in the United States
04:16and geopolitical dynamics in various parts of the world, including the United States.
04:24The general election process there needs to be continued.
04:31These conditions require caution in summarizing the policy response
04:37from the Global Uncertainty Pact on Domestic Economy.
04:43In the country, Indonesia's economic growth is still good,
04:48supported by domestic and export demands.
04:53The 2022-2024 economic growth is recorded at 5.05 percent year-on-year,
05:02especially supported by household consumption and investment.
05:06Export is recorded to increase,
05:08pushed by the demand for the main trade route and the increase in labor exports.
05:14Based on the business field,
05:16the economic growth is mainly supported by the goods, construction,
05:23as well as large-scale trade.
05:26In a special way, the growth is recorded to increase in most of the Indonesian regions,
05:32with the highest growth in the regions of Bali Nusa Tenggara and Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
05:40In the future, economic growth needs to continue to be pushed
05:45so that we can maintain the confidence of economic players
05:50in terms of national economic prospects.
05:53In particular, household consumption needs to be increased
05:59with the end of seasonal factors related to National Religious Day
06:05and the impact of the election in the 1-2024 semester.
06:10Next, the National Strategic Project is expected to increase investment,
06:16especially private investment.
06:18The increase in fiscal stimulus in 2024,
06:23from 2.3 percent to 2.7 percent of GDP,
06:29is expected to also be effective in providing positive impact on the economy.
06:39The Bank of Indonesia estimates that economic growth in 2024
06:45is in the range of 4.7 to 5.5 percent.
06:50The Bank of Indonesia continues to strengthen the government fiscal stimulus
06:55with the macro stimulus of the Bank of Indonesia
06:58to support economic growth in the future,
07:02especially from the side of demand.
07:06The Indonesian payment system remains healthy
07:08and continues to support the defense of Indonesia's external economy.
07:13In the 2-2024 semester, the transaction deficit is expected to be low,
07:19supported by an increase in the surplus of the trading system.
07:23Meanwhile, capital and financial transactions are in surplus,
07:28while the global financial market uncertainty continues.
07:33The positive performance of the Indonesian payment system
07:37is expected to continue in the 3-2024 semester.
07:43In July 2024, the trade deficit again recorded a surplus of US$0.5 billion.
07:52The flow of foreign portfolio investment into Indonesia
07:58also strengthened various domestic financial market instruments
08:04such as SBN, SRBI, and SHAM.
08:08As of August 19, 2024,
08:13the quarter-to-date figure in the triangle is 3,
08:17while the net inflow is recorded at US$7.2 billion.
08:26The position of the capital reserve at the end of July 2024 was recorded high
08:31and increased to US$145.4 billion,
08:39or equivalent to a 6.5-month import payment
08:44or a 6.3-month import payment and a US foreign debt payment.
08:51The capital reserve level is well above the international supply standard
08:57of 3-month imports.
09:00In the future, the Indonesian payment system
09:03is expected to remain healthy throughout 2024
09:08with transactions running in the low-deficit range,
09:14i.e. between 0.1% and 0.9% of GDP.
09:21The decline in capital and financial transactions is also expected to record a large surplus
09:28that is not only supported by foreign capital planting,
09:33but also foreign portfolio investment into the domestic financial market.
09:40This positive development is in line with the positive perception of investors
09:46regarding national economic prospects and interesting investment results.
09:53The value of rupiah exchange is strong,
09:56supported by the rise of the monetary policy of the Bank of Indonesia,
10:00increasing the flow of foreign capital
10:03and starting to reduce the uncertainty of the global financial market.
10:07The value of rupiah exchange on 20 August 2024
10:13increased to Rp15,430 per US dollar
10:19or increased by 5.34% during August
10:25compared to the position at the end of July 2024.
10:30This increase is higher than the regional currency appreciation
10:37such as Baht Thailand, Yen Japan, Peso Filipina, and Won Korea
10:42which each recorded an appreciation of 4.2%, 3.2%, 3.2%, and 3.04%
10:55for Baht Thailand, Yen Japan, Peso Filipina, and Won Korea.
11:02If compared to the position at the end of December 2024,
11:08the level of rupiah appreciation is also lower
11:12compared to the appreciation of Rupiah India, Peso Filipina, and Won Korea.
11:19In the future, the value of rupiah exchange is expected to continue to grow
11:27by attracting low-inflation results
11:33and maintaining the growth of the Indonesian economy
11:37as well as the commitment of the Bank of Indonesia policy.
11:41In this regard, we will continue to optimize all monetary instruments,
11:47including strengthening the Pro-Market Monetary Operation Strategy
11:51through the optimization of SME, SVBI, and SUVBI instruments.
11:59Inflation has decreased and remained low at an average of 2.5% plus or minus 1%.
12:09The consumer price index inflation, IHK, recorded the lowest in July 2024,
12:16which is 2.13% year-on-year.
12:20It is lower than inflation in June 2024, which is 2.51% year-on-year.
12:29This development is driven by the low inflation in all components.
12:36The main inflation is recorded low, which is 1.95% year-on-year.
12:44Volatile food inflation also continues to decline,
12:48to 3.63% year-on-year from 5.96% year-on-year in July.
12:57The decline in volatile food inflation is recorded in most of the Indonesian regions,
13:04supported by an increase in food supplies as the harvest season continues
13:09and a synergy of inflation control, Central and Regional Inflation Control Teams,
13:16Central and Regional Inflation Control Teams,
13:19through the National Movement for Food Inflation Control, CNPIP.
13:26In the future, the Bank of Indonesia believes that IHK inflation is still under control at an average of 2.5% plus or minus 1%.
13:37The main inflation is expected to be maintained in line with the expected inflation
13:42that is within the target, the economic capacity is still large and can respond to economic demands,
13:50the imported inflation that is under control is in line with the policy of stabilizing
13:56the exchange rate of the Bank of Indonesia as well as the positive impact of its development in the region.
14:03Volatile food inflation is also expected to remain under control,
14:07supported by a synergy of inflation control of the Bank of Indonesia and the Government,
14:12both Central and Regional.
14:15The Bank of Indonesia continues to strengthen the Monetary Prostability Policy
14:19and increase the policy synergy with the Government to ensure that
14:25the inflation of 2024 and 2025 is under control at an average of 2.5% plus or minus 1%.
14:34To strengthen the stability of the exchange rate and achieve inflation targets,
14:40the Bank of Indonesia continues to optimize various pro-market monetary instruments,
14:45namely SRPI, SVBI, and SUVBI.
14:51This policy is also intended to accelerate the effort to deepen the financial market
14:57and support the entry of foreign portfolios into the domestic financial market.
15:05As of 19 August 2024, the position of SRPI, SVBI, and SUVBI instruments
15:16each amounted to Rp8.99.5 trillion for SRPI,
15:23US$1.73 billion for SVBI,
15:30and US$168 million for SUVBI.
15:39SRPI instruments have supported the entry of foreign portfolios into the domestic market,
15:46resulting in non-residential ownership of Rp243.27 trillion or 27.04% of the total outstanding,
16:04The implementation of the Primary Dealer since May 2024 also strengthens the effectiveness of SRPI
16:15as a monetary instrument in supporting the stabilization of the exchange rate stability
16:20and inflation control. This is proven by the increasing volume and transactions of SRPI
16:31in the secondary market. In the future, Bangladesh will continue to optimize various
16:37pro-market instrument innovations, both in terms of volume and withdrawal power,
16:44and in support of Indonesia's strong fundamental economic conditions to continue
16:52the entry of foreign portfolios into the domestic financial market.
16:58Monetary policy transmission continues to run well. The Indonesia Overnight Monetary Market
17:05is moving at around BIRID, which is 6.39 percent, which was recorded on August 20, 2024.
17:19SRPI flower bouquets for tenors aged 6, 9, and 12 months were recorded at 7.05 percent, 7.14 percent,
17:37and 7.20 percent on August 16, 2024, and can still attract entry of foreign portfolios.
17:45The total SBN income for tenors aged 2 and 10 years also decreased, which was recorded at 6.43 percent
17:53and 6.64 percent on August 20, 2024,
18:01pushed by the increase in non-residential applications by strengthening the entry of foreign
18:11portfolios into the domestic financial market. Meanwhile, the Bank's liquidity continues to run well
18:17by implementing the Bangunisa policy, including the macro-potential liquidity incentive policy.
18:24The Bank's liquidity and efficiency in creating a better price
18:32are running well by implementing the Transmaransi policy of the SB3 basic credit flower tribe,
18:38which has a positive impact on the Bank's flower tribe, which is still maintained.
18:45The Deposit Flower Tribe for one month and the Credit Flower Tribe for July 2024 were recorded at 4.73 percent
18:56for one month and 9.20 percent for one month.
19:01Relatively stable compared to the previous month.
19:06The growth of credit in July 2024 remained strong, reaching 12.40 percent year-on-year.
19:18This development is supported by the offer side, where the interest in credit flow remains
19:24maintained. It is supported by the growth of the third party funds, the Deposit Flower Tribe for July 2024,
19:31which is 7.40 percent year-on-year. The strategy of reallocating liquid
19:40to the credit flower tribe is also supported by the macro-potential liquidity incentive policy
19:49provided by the Bank of Indonesia. To strengthen funding, banks also optimize
20:00funding sources other than third-party funds, including by providing
20:06valuable letters and loans. In terms of demand for the growth of credit, it also continues to support
20:17sources from corporate demands in line with still strong sales.
20:24Meanwhile, the demand for household credit is still high, especially on household credit, KPR.
20:35In terms of sector, the high growth of credit occurs in the majority of economic sectors,
20:40especially in the industry sector of electricity, gas, water, and transportation.
20:47Based on the use groups, the growth of credit is supported by investment credit,
20:53working capital credit, and consumption credit, each of which grows by 15.2 percent year-on-year
21:03for investment credit, 11.6 percent year-on-year for working capital credit, and 10.98 percent
21:13year-on-year for consumption credit in July 2024. The distribution of interest rates and
21:21UMKM loans each grow by 11.75 percent year-on-year and 5.16 percent year-on-year.
21:31With this development, the growth of loans in 2024 is expected to be
21:40at the upper limit of 10 to 12 percent.
21:47The financial system is well maintained. The liquidity of banks in July 2024 is still
21:54adequate, reflected in the ratio of liquid assets to third-party funds,
22:00namely 25.56 percent. The ratio of capital adequacy in the banking sector is also quite high,
22:16namely 26.09 percent, so it can absorb risks and support the distribution and growth of credit.
22:27Meanwhile, the risk of non-performing loans in June 2024 remains low,
22:35namely 2.26 percent and 0.7 percent in the NETO.
22:43The defense of capital and banking liquidity is also supported by the ability to pay and the
22:50maintained profitability of corporations. How is the result of the current banking stress test?
22:59In the future, the Government will continue to strengthen the policy synergy with the KSSK
23:05and the KSSK in mitigating various potential risks that can affect the stability of the financial system.
23:16In the payment system, the performance of digital transactions, economies, and finance
23:23in July 2024 remains strong, supported by a secure, smooth, and reliable payment system.
23:32In terms of value, the BERTGS real-time gross settlement transaction increased by 15.36 percent
23:42year-on-year, up to Rp15,400 trillion. In terms of retail, the volume of BIFAS transactions
23:53grew high, namely 65.08 percent year-on-year, up to 301.4 million transactions.
24:05In terms of digital banking services transactions, it was recorded as 1,845 million transactions,
24:17or grew by 30.5 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, electronic money transactions grew by 22.46 percent
24:29year-on-year, up to Rp1,272 million transactions. Payment transactions using ATM debit cards
24:42experienced a decrease of 9.57 percent year-on-year, up to Rp584 million transactions,
24:53in line with the acceptance and preference of the community, which is increasingly directed to
25:00digital payment system transactions and services. Credit card transactions grew by 15.3 percent
25:09year-on-year, up to Rp39.8 million transactions. KrisQRIS transactions continue to grow rapidly,
25:21which is very high, namely 207.5 percent year-on-year, with the number of users reaching
25:30Rp51.43 million and the number of merchants recorded at Rp33.2 million. Once again, this shows the
25:42acceptance and preference of the community towards digital payment system services. Meanwhile,
25:52from money management, the amount of credit card money generated grew by 9.45 percent year-on-year,
26:02up to Rp1,041.02 trillion. The stability of the payment system infrastructure remains maintained
26:13thanks to the wide interconnected industrial structure. In terms of infrastructure,
26:22the smoothness and reliability of the Indonesian Bank Payment System is maintained well, safe and reliable,
26:30supported by adequate liquidity and operational conditions. In terms of industrial structure,
26:38interconnection, payment system, and expansion of the digital economy ecosystem continues to increase.
26:47Payment transactions are based on the National Open API Payment Standard or SNAP
26:57which facilitates interconnection in the payment system to grow positively. It is encouraged by the
27:05expansion of cooperation between industrial players, both in terms of digital technology,
27:13business cooperation, and also in the relationship of ownership. The Bank of Indonesia continues to
27:22maintain the availability of Rupiah in a sufficient amount, with a reasonable quality
27:29in all regions of the United Nations, including the three T regions, the front, the outside, and the long term.
27:38It also includes the success and smoothness of the Indonesian Rupiah Festival,
27:50which is celebrated by the Bank of Indonesia on the anniversary of the independence of the
27:57Republic of Indonesia, which we recently held in Senayan and also in all offices of the Bank of Indonesia.
28:08Therefore, the main results of the assessment, projection, global economy, domestic economy,
28:17monetary conditions, financial system, and payment system are based on the decision of the Governor-General Assembly.
28:25Based on the assessment, projection, and future scenario,
28:31the Governor-General Assembly of the Bank of Indonesia on 20-21-2024
28:42decided to maintain the interest rate of 6.25 percent,
28:51as well as the deposit facility ratio of 5.5 percent, and the lending facility ratio of 7 percent.
29:05This decision remains consistent with the focus of the pro-stability monetary policy,
29:12namely to further strengthen the stabilization of the Rupiah exchange rate,
29:19as well as the pre-emptive and forward-looking steps to ensure that inflation is still under control
29:27at a target of 2.5 percent plus or minus 1 percent in 2024-2020.
29:34Fifth, meanwhile, macro policy, budget, and payment system remain pro-stability.
30:04The Governor-General Assembly of the Bank of Indonesia on 20-21-2024
30:10decided to maintain the interest rate of 6.5 percent,
30:14as well as the deposit facility ratio of 5.5 percent plus or minus 1 percent in 2024-2020.
30:22This decision remains consistent with the focus of the pro-stability monetary policy,
30:28namely to further strengthen the stabilization of the Rupiah exchange rate,
30:32as well as the pre-emptive and forward-looking steps to ensure that inflation is still under control at a target of 2.5 percent plus or minus 1 percent in 2024-2020.