Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Kepala Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Bappenas) Rachmat Pambudy menegaskan, saat ini menjadi kesempatan terakhir bagi Indonesia keluar dari perangkap pendapatan menengah atau middle income trap. Hal itu karena Indonesia diprediksi akan mengalami puncak bonus demografi.
Namun, perekonomian Indonesia masih menghadapi tantangan besar, terutama dalam sektor ketenagakerjaan. Laporan Bank Dunia 2023 mencatat bahwa tingkat pengangguran usia produktif di Indonesia mencapai 12,5%, tertinggi di kawasan ASEAN, meskipun Indonesia tengah menuju puncak bonus demografi.
Rachmat mengatakan, bonus demografi harus dimanfaatkan semaksimal mungki, guna mencpai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkualitas. Sebab jika Indonesia tak mempu mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkualitas, maka ekonomi Indonesia akan jalan di tempat.
Namun, perekonomian Indonesia masih menghadapi tantangan besar, terutama dalam sektor ketenagakerjaan. Laporan Bank Dunia 2023 mencatat bahwa tingkat pengangguran usia produktif di Indonesia mencapai 12,5%, tertinggi di kawasan ASEAN, meskipun Indonesia tengah menuju puncak bonus demografi.
Rachmat mengatakan, bonus demografi harus dimanfaatkan semaksimal mungki, guna mencpai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkualitas. Sebab jika Indonesia tak mempu mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkualitas, maka ekonomi Indonesia akan jalan di tempat.
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00:00Indonesia's Development Minister, Rahmat Pamudi
00:13Minister for National Development, Rahmat Pamudi, has confirmed that this is the last moment for Indonesia to get rid of the middle class by using the demography bonus.
00:26And with the current challenges, Rahmat invites all parties to push Indonesia into the category of a developed country.
00:38In a speech before the 11th Committee of the DPRR last week, Minister for National Development, Rahmat Pamudi, emphasized that this is the last moment for Indonesia to get rid of the middle-income trap.
00:53Rahmat said that in order to get rid of the middle-income trap, Indonesia must maximize the demography bonus.
01:00According to Rahmat, Indonesia's demography bonus must be used to achieve high-quality economic growth.
01:07Even though the middle-income trap is a condition when a country manages to reach a middle-income level, but cannot get out of that level to become a developed country.
01:16We are trapped in a middle-income trap. We cannot be trapped in a middle-income trap. If we are trapped in a middle-income trap, we will not be able to get out.
01:28And this is our last chance. Now or never.
01:33Why is this our last chance? Because our demography bonus is there.
01:38And our demography bonus must be used to achieve high-quality economic growth.
01:45Therefore, Rahmat invited the DPRR members and all parties involved to work together to encourage Indonesia to get out of the middle-income trap, namely by promoting high-quality economic growth.
01:57In addition to creating high-quality economic growth, Indonesia's economic growth must prioritize the principle of equality.
02:04Considering that there are still many Indonesian citizens who face poor social and health conditions.
02:09From Jakarta, Tim Liputan, IDX News.
02:16Yes, Mr. Mirso, to discuss our topic this time, the strategy to release Indonesia from the middle-income trap.
02:22We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Ajib Hamdani, economic policy analyst at the Indonesian Business Association or APINO.
02:28Hello, Mr. Ajib, how are you?
02:30Very good, Mr. Ras.
02:32Thank you for your time. Then we will directly talk to Prof. Didin S. Damanhuri, a senior economist at Indef.
02:39Hello, Prof. Didin, how are you?
02:41Hello, how are you? I'm good.
02:43I'm good, too, Prof. Thank you for your time. Before discussing further, Prof.
02:48I want you to review first, how is the condition of Indonesia's economic growth right now, Prof?
02:55Yes, after the pandemic, economic growth experienced a drastic decline of 2.03 percent.
03:05Then the next year, it has increased to 3.7 percent.
03:11And the fourth, 5.2 percent in 2023.
03:16And the last one, 2024, the probability is about 5 percent.
03:23So this is indeed a stagnation.
03:28Before the pandemic, we were on average only 5 percent.
03:32So this is indeed a mediocre growth.
03:39We only had 6.5 percent during the PSBY era.
03:47After that, it never happened again.
03:50This must be taken into account by the government.
03:55Okay, if we look at the existing conditions, what are the factors, Prof. Didin?
04:00If we look at it, if you say there is stagnation in terms of Indonesia's economic growth.
04:06Yes, this is complex.
04:08If we look at countries that have been hit by the middle-income trend,
04:13there are several Latin American countries, then Indonesia.
04:18I think there is a problem of microeconomics, macroeconomics, and even politics.
04:26Okay.
04:28So this continues, it can't just be a heroic assumption.
04:33If you want to be a developed country, then for example,
04:36you only focus on the issue of microeconomics or only microeconomics,
04:41but the political ecosystem is not improved,
04:44then you learn from other countries.
04:47Usually, then the middle-income trend will continue.
04:54In Indonesia, since the reformation,
05:01let's say from 2000 to 2025,
05:05the income per capita has only increased by 4.5%, almost 5%.
05:10Okay.
05:12Whereas in the era of Mr. Harto's government,
05:17it increased from 80 to 1,000,
05:23which is about 15 times.
05:26This is only 4 times.
05:29We are almost the same, 25 years.
05:32So this is a strong reminder,
05:35including from the Minister of Development and Development,
05:37that there must be a multi-faceted solution.
05:45The issue of monography bonus,
05:49the issue of the contribution of GDP from only the people's consumption,
05:55the political ecosystem is not conducive,
06:00especially in the last 10 years of reformation.
06:03Okay, Prof.
06:04Mr. Ajib, how has the world of business,
06:07especially manufacturing business,
06:09been maximized for Indonesia's economic growth?
06:12Remembering that this sector is also one of the main supporters of Indonesia's GDP.
06:16What do you think?
06:18Okay, Mr. Pras.
06:20If we look at the manufacturing sector,
06:22the manufacturing sector in terms of volume,
06:25we continue to experience an increase.
06:27As we can see in the data from 2024,
06:30the volume of our manufacturing sector transactions
06:34is more than US$240 billion.
06:37And even this is around the 12th largest in the world.
06:41But if we look at the ratio above the GDP,
06:45we continue to experience a decrease in the percentage.
06:50And this is what we call deindustrialization.
06:53And if we look at the latest data,
06:56the manufacturing sector, even the ratio is only below 20%.
06:58More precisely, it is only at around 18.98%.
07:03This means that this is the government's job.
07:06In order for the government to push for the best incentives,
07:10so that manufacturing can support economic growth.
07:14Because if we look at it, Mr. Pras,
07:16that manufacturing is the principle of deindustrialization.
07:21Because manufacturing will continue from raw materials to semi-finished goods,
07:25or semi-finished goods even to finished goods.
07:26So there is a maximum added value in the process of deindustrialization.
07:31So our hope, if we want to make a leap towards a developed country,
07:35then of course we expect more added value
07:38for the superior commodities owned by Indonesia, Mr. Pras.
07:42And one of them is of course through the improvement of the manufacturing sector quality.
07:47And of course the manufacturing sector will be balanced with investment.
07:51And if we look at it, Mr. Pras,
07:52that investment in Indonesia, the Ministry of Investment and Hillarization,
07:56has a target of more than Rp13 trillion for the next five years.
08:02And even if we look at it, Mr. Pras,
08:04in 2025, the target will reach Rp1,900 trillion.
08:09Now, when these investment figures can be achieved,
08:12then this can support the manufacturing sector,
08:15can support hillarization,
08:17and I also think this will have a positive contribution to economic growth in aggregate.
08:22And if we look at Mr. Prabowo-Subianto's big narrative,
08:26for us to reach a developed country in 2045,
08:30the economic growth must be above 6%.
08:33And even if we look at it, Mr. Prabowo has a more ambitious target,
08:38to reach a figure of more than 8% per year.
08:42And this is of course a very challenging figure,
08:44and we must be able to meet some conditions
08:47to be able to leap towards a developed country,
08:49to be able to leap towards economic growth above 8%.
08:53That's about it, Mr. Pras.
08:55Okay, if you look ahead, Mr. Ajip,
08:58as you said earlier, there are quite complex issues
09:01from our microeconomic, macro, and also political perspectives.
09:04So, do we really need a stronger booster?
09:09Or if we talk about incentives,
09:11there are already many incentives given to industries,
09:14especially manufacturing, for example.
09:17Mr. Ajip, please.
09:19Okay, before the context of the booster and the incentives, Mr. Pras,
09:24we have to see first, what is bottlenecking in the manufacturing sector?
09:27We note that there are at least four things, Mr. Pras.
09:30Bottleneck in the context of manufacturing.
09:32First, in terms of regulation.
09:34Where our regulation is too long, too complicated, and too long.
09:38So this will interfere with a business process,
09:41and competitiveness in Indonesia will be relatively
09:44less able to compete with Singapore, with Malaysia,
09:47even with Vietnam and Thailand.
09:49This is our first bottleneck.
09:51The government should be more supportive of deregulation,
09:54so as to provide positive incentives
09:57and give a better impact to the manufacturing sector.
10:00This is the first problem.
10:02The second problem is the issue of SDM,
10:04or human resources quality,
10:06where our productivity and competitiveness are still low.
10:10And even if we look at the data, Mr. Pras,
10:12from the Apindo survey,
10:13only about 26% of entrepreneurs are satisfied with the quality of their employees.
10:21This is indeed relevant.
10:24If we look at the data, even in Indonesia,
10:27the number of SDM graduates is only around 12%.
10:30The highest number of SD graduates is only around 36%.
10:34This is relevant to the results of the Apindo survey.
10:37Only 26% of entrepreneurs are satisfied with the existing SDM.
10:40Our hope is how the government can encourage
10:43SDM to increase competitiveness and productivity.
10:47The third is the issue of technology.
10:49Technology is of course the main issue
10:51so that we can push the production sector to be better
10:54and have competitiveness in a global context.
10:57And the last is the issue of efficiency,
10:59where our efficiency is still very low compared to Mr. Pras.
11:03Even including, for example, the transportation or logistics sector.
11:07The logistics sector is more than 20% for us.
11:10This, of course, reduces the efficiency of manufacturing.
11:16And when our efficiency tends to be weak,
11:19this becomes a problem because our competitiveness is not maximal in a global context.
11:24That's about it, Mr. Pras.
11:26Looking at these four problems,
11:28the government must formulate how each of these problems can be solved
11:32with regulations that are pro-industrialization.
11:35That's about it, Mr. Pras.
11:36Now, Prof. Didin, if we talk about some of the points that have been mentioned,
11:40one of them is our technology.
11:42Countries like Korsel, Taiwan,
11:45all of them can get out of the middle income trap
11:47because they are able to apply industrialization based on IPTEC
11:50and also economic growth based on productivity.
11:53So, how can this be a threat to Indonesia's economy?
11:57Prof. Didin, we will discuss it in the next segment.
11:59We will take a break for a while, Prof.
12:01Please don't leave your seat.
12:03We will be right back.
12:06Indonesia's Economic Growth in 2014-2024
12:21You are still watching Market Review.
12:23In the next segment, we will be sharing data
12:26on Indonesia's economic growth in 2014-2024.
12:32As mentioned by Prof. Didin,
12:34Indonesia's economic growth has stagnated
12:37in 5% of the country's GDP.
12:41This has happened in terms of micro, macro, political,
12:44as well as industrial manufacturing.
12:46Mr. Ajib mentioned regulations, competitiveness,
12:49technology, and efficiency.
12:51That's about Indonesia's economic growth.
12:54Now, let's talk about the 10 largest countries with the largest GDP.
12:58The first is China with US$39.44 trillion,
13:03followed by the United States, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, and Indonesia
13:07with US$4.98 trillion.
13:12Let's continue our discussion with Prof. Didin Sedamanhuri,
13:16Senior Economist at Indef,
13:18and Mr. Ajib Hamdani, Economic Policy Analyst at Apino.
13:22Prof. Didin, if we talk about a number of countries
13:27that are out of the middle class,
13:30can that be considered Indonesia's weakness?
13:33Or are the challenges they face different
13:37from those in Indonesia today?
13:40Yes, if we learn from Korea,
13:43for example, Japan,
13:47with the authoritarian regime,
13:51and the leadership of the industry,
13:55which started with a firm stance
14:00on the mobility of their resources,
14:05does that include land reform?
14:11How will the people bring access
14:14to spectacular industrialization progress
14:17from South Korea?
14:19Then, as a large business group,
14:26the government, including the APBN,
14:34allocated for research and development
14:38up to 4% of their GDP.
14:44Then they chose the top industries
14:49such as electronics, automotive,
14:55and even the shipping industry,
14:58which was previously dominated by Japan.
15:02In the last 15 years, it has been 20 years.
15:06That's South Korea.
15:09Then, we move on to mental health planning.
15:14So, one of the things that stands out in South Korea
15:19is the high level of the citizens.
15:23And then, not only the high level,
15:27but also the hard-earned GDP.
15:30Then, with power planning,
15:34they choose the right focus study.
15:37The right focus study,
15:40so that the market formed
15:43by the advanced industries
15:46can be supplied by accurate workers.
15:51So, indeed,
15:54South Korea is an example of a developing country
15:58that emerged from a poor country in the 1960s,
16:02then became a middle-income country,
16:05and has become an advanced country
16:08in the 1990s, 2000s.
16:10And now they have 30,000 of their capital.
16:13However, the regime authority, Pak Chung-hee,
16:18from 1961 to 1997,
16:21was ended by the emergence of Moteu,
16:24who was a bit pro-democracy, he was a general,
16:27but then democratized by Kim Dae-yong
16:31and overthrown by Kim Jong-un.
16:33So, don't let Indonesia learn
16:37piece by piece with South Korea, for example.
16:39Yes, it was only Pak Chung-hee
16:42who appointed a foreign minister
16:44to lead the industries.
16:47But then,
16:49it was not yet an advanced country at that time.
16:52But the advanced countries
16:54were democratized
16:56in line with industrialization.
16:59This, I think, must be learned
17:01because we tend to simplify
17:05to bring together the outside of advanced countries
17:07with the authoritarian model.
17:11Okay, Prof. Didin.
17:13Mr. Ajib, then, from the world of business,
17:16what kind of extraordinary steps
17:19do we need to take
17:21if we can get rid of,
17:23as the Minister of Development and Social Development said,
17:25this is the right momentum
17:27if we really have to get out
17:29of this middle class trap?
17:31Okay, before I talk about the strategy,
17:33I want to start with Prof. Didin's interesting data.
17:35When Prof. Didin compared us to South Korea,
17:41I very much agree
17:43because our orientation there must be if we want to be an advanced country.
17:45But Prof. Didin said that,
17:48for example, Chaebol,
17:50or its conglomerate group in South Korea,
17:5210% of the people there
17:55control 50% of the wealth in South Korea.
17:58It's different from Indonesia, Prof.
18:0010% of our people control 90%
18:02of the assets and businesses in Indonesia.
18:03This means that even from our generation,
18:06it's not ideal if we want to jump to an advanced country.
18:09So the first problem,
18:11our generation is very unideal
18:13if we want to be from an emerging country
18:16to an advanced country.
18:18The second is poverty,
18:20the third is unemployment.
18:22Let's look at our poverty data,
18:24which he said was 9%,
18:26but the data in other ministries also shows a difference.
18:28The Ministry of Finance said,
18:30Prof. Didin's permission, I have to say this,
18:31only 25 million people are poor.
18:33This is the data from the Ministry of Health.
18:35But if we look at the data from the Ministry of Health,
18:37for example,
18:39there are 96 million people who receive PBI,
18:41or Permanent Benefit.
18:43This means that this is also the definition of a poor person
18:45who receives PBI.
18:47This means that our data is also not in sync.
18:49Poverty is one of the main factors
18:51for us to make it difficult to jump to an advanced country.
18:53These are the main points, Prof.
18:55But okay, what is the solution
18:57for us to jump?
18:59I have four notes
19:01for investment, for sure.
19:03Because in the meantime,
19:05our investment only has a narrow space
19:07to be a leveraging or economic boost.
19:09At present, 57%
19:11is supported by household consumption,
19:13which in turn becomes an unideal condition.
19:16The ideal is investment.
19:18And the problem of investment,
19:20is that in 2013-2014,
19:221 trillion investment money
19:24absorbed more than 4,000 workers.
19:27But now,
19:29with 1 trillion investment money,
19:31it only absorbs around 1,000 workers.
19:33Now, this is also a problem in itself.
19:35But, increasing investment
19:37becomes a must.
19:39The second point is the issue of
19:41better country spending quality.
19:43Spending better, in the term,
19:45for APBN.
19:47And now, Mr. Prabowo has initiated
19:49with efficiency and others,
19:51but our hope is that the programs
19:53will be comprehensive throughout,
19:55so that our APBN spending quality
19:57can be better,
19:59so that it can be more supportive
20:01The third point is the issue of
20:03MSMEs, Mr. Pras.
20:05Because our MSMEs support
20:07more than 60% of our GDP.
20:09So, the government should be focused
20:11on how this business can rise to the top.
20:13And this requires a
20:15well-organized business ecosystem
20:17and deliberately built by the government.
20:19Let's try if we criticize, Mr. Pras.
20:21The richest person in Thailand
20:23is building a business kingdom in Indonesia,
20:26for example.
20:28Well, the government should be able to encourage
20:29local entrepreneurs to rise to the top
20:31with sectors such as agro,
20:33maritime, plantation, etc.
20:35And lastly, the issue of hybridization.
20:37Because this hybridization
20:39can encourage
20:41an increase in added value.
20:43And if we want to be a developed country,
20:45then the rich communities in Indonesia
20:47must increase their added value
20:49and must be encouraged by local entrepreneurs
20:51who have a participating role
20:53so that they can rise to the top.
20:55I think that's all, Mr. Pras.
20:56And lastly, how do you see
20:58the potential of Indonesia
21:00to be free from the middle-income trap?
21:03Yes, our natural resources potential
21:06is extraordinary.
21:08We are one of the countries
21:10with a very rich nature,
21:14a very wide and large biodiversity,
21:19whether it's land, sea,
21:23even the deep sea.
21:26The problem is that
21:29our natural resources
21:32are very slow to be hybridized.
21:36So, we used to do industrialization
21:38during Mr. Harto's era.
21:40That's because we are a developed country.
21:45Japan, Korea,
21:47then Europe,
21:50Korea, and China.
21:53But the hybridization that increases
21:57the added value of our natural resources
22:00has just started
22:02in the last few years.
22:05But the hybridization idea
22:08when Nikal was founded
22:10was quickly
22:12focused on industrial cooperation
22:14with the RRC.
22:17And even then,
22:19we were controlled by more than 95 percent
22:20of the RRC.
22:26So, we have to have a platform
22:29of hybridization
22:32that contains the interests
22:34of the national economy.
22:36There are three conditions for me.
22:38First, there are laws
22:40on hybridization
22:42that cooperate not only with one country.
22:45But let's say the RRC,
22:47then South Korea, Japan,
22:51the US, and Europe.
22:53Several countries.
22:55And those are the laws
22:57that require cooperation
23:00to hybridize with foreign companies.
23:03Because we are not yet capable in terms of technology.
23:05There must be a transfer of technology.
23:08There must be a transfer of managerial expertise.
23:11And capital transfer.
23:13That's what we learned from China.
23:14Yesterday, we even attacked the RRC.
23:20So, we became their industrialization pillar.
23:24So, we have to learn.
23:26Because this will be expanded in the era of Mr. Prabowo.
23:29Not only Nikal, but also other mines.
23:31Then, even to agronomy, maritime,
23:34farming, and so on.
23:36Okay, Professor.
23:38So, hybridization can be one of the game changers
23:40to push Indonesia's economic growth
23:41and to get us out of the middle-income trade.
23:45Prof. Didin, thank you for the information and updates.
23:48Mr. Ajip, thank you for the information and updates
23:51given to Mr. Mirsa today.
23:53Good luck with your activities.
23:55See you again soon, Prof. Didin.
23:57Mr. Ajip, thank you.
23:59Mr. Mirsa, I've been with you for an hour
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