Awal tahun ini, Bank Indonesia (BI) menurunkan suku bunga acuan atau BI Rate sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 5,75%. Meskipun penurunan ini memberikan ruang bagi perekonomian, tantangan ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global dan domestik dinilai tetap membayangi.
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00:00Thank you, Mr. Mayor, for joining us again.
00:07In addition to highlighting the value of our currency, Mr. Mayor, which is still weakening to Rp16,400,
00:13we also have other information in the next Spotlight market.
00:17Among them, Mr. Mayor, there are BBRI, Bang Bandiri, and also BBNI, these three big caps,
00:22which are still the top traders on Thursday.
00:25Then five days ago, the top auto-reject, Samratu, increased by 201%, with a market cap of Rp9.42 trillion.
00:35And it was suspended, Mr. Mayor, because of unreasonable movements.
00:40Then Samren became the heavyweight of IHSG with a weakness of 3.74%.
00:47Moving on to the economic agenda, we see that the United States has several agendas as follows,
00:56then also from the European Union.
01:00Moving on to the emittance agenda, there are RUPS from a number of emittances such as Okas, Uang,
01:08then payment of cash dividends from KKGI, payment of cash bonus from Keju, and payment of cash dividends from Acro.
01:16We will see an update from the Asian Stock Exchange, Mr. Mayor, in the middle of a weakness in the exchange rate of Rupiah.
01:21Then how about the Asian Stock Exchange? Is the exchange rate quite affected?
01:26And what is the stock market like? We see that Nikkei Japan fell by 0.91%,
01:30Shrewd Times rose by 0.1%,
01:32Kospi fell by 0.33%,
01:35Hang Seng Hong Kong by 1.23%,
01:37Cendolung Mix, Mr. Mayor.
01:45Mr. Mayor, Sobang Indonesia fell by 0.0% at the beginning of 2025,
01:50and economists say that this is a bit out of projection or surprising.
01:55Let's see what the economists at the University of Indonesia have to say about this.
02:01Most of the predictions are still dominant.
02:04So it's quite a surprise.
02:06If we look at the analysis of the economists yesterday afternoon and in the morning,
02:14there were a lot of people in the group who said that it was relatively unexpected.
02:19But on the one hand, it's quite positive.
02:21The economists also said that even though it was unexpected,
02:24but of course we as economists are in need of stimulus.
02:28Bank Indonesia has always been more pro-stability to maintain Rupiah stability.
02:32However, in the midst of weakening Rupiah,
02:35when President Trump was elected as President of the United States,
02:40and will soon be re-elected,
02:42the global negative sentiment has increased,
02:44so Rupiah is quite stressed and the dollar is very strong.
02:47In the midst of that, but it turns out that we are confident enough to reduce our flower rate.
02:52Because in terms of inflation, it should decrease.
02:56When inflation has decreased and has reached the target of 2.5 plus or minus 1,
03:02we should be able to start releasing the BI rate.
03:06But we still have Rupiah.
03:08What does that mean?
03:09Economists may read that Bank Indonesia is more pro-growth right now,
03:13so not too pro-stability.
03:15Yes, stability is still there, but right now it will be more focused on pro-growth.
03:22With the decrease in Rupiah, it is hoped to maintain the condition of the banks.
03:25Because we know that our banks are afraid of a bit of a shake.
03:28For example, there are cases of PHK, there are cases like textile that will go bankrupt.
03:33That's a number of banks that are affected.
03:35With that, to maintain stability in the banks,
03:38the decrease in Rupiah will provide a fresh air for the stability of the banks.
03:42Banking stability, financial stability, we keep.
03:45But earlier, the PR was still exchange rate stability.
03:49Rupiah.
03:50Rupiah should also affect the business world.
03:52Yes.
03:53Like multi-finance will also be affected by Rupiah.
03:57That's why, in addition to maintaining capital and capital inflow,
04:00maintaining Rupiah is also very important.
04:03That's the conclusion from the economist.
04:05We will review the conclusion from Mr. Hans Kui,
04:09who is a capital market observer this morning.
04:11Good morning, Mr. Hans.
04:12Yes, good morning.
04:13Rupiah is at 16,400,
04:15even though Bank Indonesia has decreased the rate of Rupiah.
04:18But it was said earlier by Mrs. Telisa, the economist from UI,
04:22that this is a bit beyond the economic expectations.
04:24What do you think?
04:26Is it true that Bank Indonesia is choosing
04:29the stability growth of economic growth
04:31rather than excluding the value of the exchange rate of Rupiah?
04:34Or how?
04:36Yes, if we look at it,
04:38actually, the expectation market for the cut of Suku Bunga
04:42has been there for a long time, since last year.
04:44When the Federal Reserve started the cut in September,
04:4750 basis points were followed by the next two cuts.
04:52The Federal Reserve had cut 100 basis points,
04:55but our central bank only cut 25 basis points.
04:58At that time, the main reason was to maintain the value of the exchange rate of Rupiah.
05:03It was seen that the pressure on the value of the exchange rate of Rupiah increased
05:06when Donald Trump won in America,
05:09where the trade policy,
05:13his three main policies,
05:17trade war, migration, and tax,
05:21all benefit the US dollar.
05:25The second one pushes inflation higher.
05:28The third one pushes the yield higher.
05:30So, it seems that the market understands
05:34when Bank Indonesia does not do the cut of Suku Bunga.
05:38But in this edition, there is a slight change.
05:41If we look at the statement of Bank Indonesia,
05:43they see that inflation is under control.
05:46But if inflation is under control, it has been happening since last year,
05:49that the inflation is low.
05:51But there are words about growth there.
05:55The market will see this,
05:58that maybe the BI sees a negative signal,
06:02that Indonesia's relative economic growth is quite under pressure.
06:08In the last few months,
06:10maybe since last year,
06:12the BI has to cut Suku Bunga.
06:15So, there is a shift in the view of the central bank.
06:20But what about the exchange rate?
06:23Rupiah 16,400.
06:25Before, it was only Rupiah 16,200.
06:27This is a significant weakness,
06:29even though many people say there is a target at Rupiah 16,500.
06:34What about this exchange rate?
06:36Yes, we have to admit that when the central bank cuts,
06:41maybe this is a bit surprising to the market.
06:44Especially if we look at the survey conducted by Bloomberg,
06:48almost all economists do not expect a cut.
06:52Of course, if the stock market responds quite positively,
06:55because if the price of Suku Bunga drops,
06:57it is an opportunity.
06:59It means people will tend to buy stocks
07:02when the price of Suku Bunga moves down.
07:05But we also have to look at the weakness of the exchange rate of Rupiah
07:10as a challenge.
07:12Because Rupiah has to be quite controlled.
07:16Because the transmission from the crisis
07:18to imported inflation
07:21always comes from the exchange rate of Rupiah.
07:24Therefore, if we look at the rise of the stock market,
07:30it is impossible to continue in a relatively long term.
07:34When the price of Suku Bunga drops,
07:36people experience a rather short euphoria
07:39because the price of Suku Bunga moves down.
07:41But after that, the market players will also pay attention to the global condition
07:46and of course also the weakness of the exchange rate of Rupiah.
07:49In general, if we look at it,
07:53yesterday, the average exchange rate of Asia was strong.
07:59But Rupiah weakened.
08:01When the U.S. reported a lower inflation rate than expected,
08:07it was responded by the Asian regional currency with a boost.
08:12But Rupiah still experienced a drop in pressure yesterday.
08:17That's right.
08:18So it's a bit of an opposite comparison.
08:20There is Rupiah and also Won that are a bit against the Asian exchange rate,
08:23which I mean is the exchange rate in Asia,
08:26which is generally experiencing a boost.
08:28Is the possibility of Rupiah weakening still continuing?
08:31Yes, if we look at it,
08:34although it may be relatively limited.
08:37Relatively limited.
08:38If we look at the government bond,
08:40we can see that the yield is rapidly strengthening.
08:42From the 10-year government bond,
08:44to the PASCA, to the policy of flower cutting,
08:46it means that people are returning.
08:49Yesterday there was also positive data
08:51because ASEAN actually inflows into our obligation market.
08:56This is also expected to reduce the pressure on our exchange rate.
09:00The Trump administration is getting closer.
09:02What are the opportunities for the exchange rate and the stock market?
09:05Because it's getting closer on January 20,
09:08making the Rupiah exchange rate weak.
09:11And the weakening factor is because the dollar is going crazy.
09:15President Donald Trump is expected to have some policies
09:19that will boost economic growth,
09:21increase inflation in the United States.
09:24What are the anticipated steps for Donald Trump to return to the US government?
09:30First, if we look at the first period of Donald Trump,
09:34he needs a relatively long time,
09:36up to nine months before the attack on the trade war begins.
09:41In this second period, it is estimated that Donald Trump can do it faster
09:45because he has previous experience.
09:48But there are indications that Donald Trump
09:52is taking the exchange rate war step by step.
09:55This will actually be responded to by the market in a relatively positive way.
09:59It means that he does not directly hit the high exchange rate,
10:03but slowly raises it while negotiating.
10:07So, what Donald Trump does with the exchange rate is actually negotiating.
10:13So, when Donald Trump raises the exchange rate,
10:16he invites the countries he hits the exchange rate,
10:19he asks them to buy more American goods.
10:22When he raises it slowly,
10:25it is expected that the impact on the economy will not be as great
10:28when he directly raises the exchange rate by 10-20% in one country.
10:33This is actually what will be responded to by the market in a relatively positive way.
10:38And maybe this is also the signal that was caught by the Bank of Indonesia
10:42so they decided to lower the rate of the exchange rate.
10:49The experience shows that in the first period of Trump,
10:52November 2016 was indeed a correctional period.
10:56But after Trump took office, the stock market can rebound
11:00because the US policy will return to the US
11:05and will tend to harm the US economy itself.
11:08Okay. In the short term, you see Donald Trump's replacement
11:11in the middle of a projection sentiment,
11:13because it is still a projection about this rate,
11:15it will put pressure on the stock market in the short term. Is that right, Mr. Hans?
11:18Yes, in the short term, there may be pressure
11:21because uncertainty has never been liked by the market players.
11:24But if we look at when Trump raises the rate,
11:29it must be answered by other countries.
11:31What is the impact?
11:32The impact is definitely that inflation in the US has increased.
11:35But on the other hand, the US economy is also under pressure.
11:38Trump will not choose that, right?
11:40The capital will outflow from the US to the emerging market.
11:45Okay.
11:46I don't know what your recommendation is in the middle.
11:48Various considerations earlier, Mr. Hans,
11:51then also related to balancing the mid-range
11:54with the drop in the flower rate.
11:56We will review it in the next segment.
11:58Stay tuned on Market Pass.
12:05Market Pass