Saham perbankan kembali jadi motor penggerak IHSG melemah pada hari ke-4 perdagangan pekan ini. Tak hanya sehari, saham sektor perbankan sudah mengalami tren pelemahan sejak awal tahun 2025. Untuk bank besar, kinerja sahamnya melemah dalam rentang 6% - 16% sejak awal tahun. Lantas, bagaimana merespon pelemahan sektor ini di tengah asing yang juga masih cenderung bukukan net sell?
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TVTranscript
00:00And the next is the Spotlight market. There is the Unilever Rebound, 9.57% to 1,260, and Kian is far from the lowest level in history.
00:16The financial sector, sectoral weakness leader, fell 1.35%, while the technology sector, sectoral strength leader, with the DCII, rose 10% to 226,150
00:28and secured the position as the most expensive stock in the Indonesian stock market.
00:36We go to the Global Economic Agenda, there is a new loan from China in February, South Korea's import export in February and year on year,
00:44Indeks Harga Producent or IPP China year on year and in February, as well as Singapore's unemployment rate.
00:49Then there is a reserve position in the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, and from Europe there is the German IHK in February and month on month,
00:56which is the Governor of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
00:59Then there is the Miten Agenda, which tends to be quiet on Friday, where there is the RUPS from the BBTN.
01:07An update from the ASEAN Stock Exchange, after the US Stock Exchange and also the European Compaq weakened, we see from the Asian area.
01:19The trend is still mixed, where Nikkei Japan rose 0.28%, Singapore's straight time fell 0.09%, South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.81%.
01:31Mixed from the ASEAN area, how will it be for the opening of our domestic stock exchange?
01:36We will review the projection and also the opportunities, especially from the banking sector.
01:41Together with Narasumber through video conference, Mr. Wawan Henrayana, Vice President of Infovesa.
01:48Good morning, Mr. Wawan.
01:49Good morning.
01:50Thank you very much for your time, Mr. Wawan.
01:52The Global Stock Exchange has been re-corrected because of the economic downturn of the trade war,
01:59where Trump's current goal is to go to the European Union, which will threaten to increase the alcohol consumption rate by 200%
02:07when Europe also makes a reduction, if not reduced, for America's own whiskey rate.
02:12What do you think, how far will this create concerns related to this trade war that will continue to escalate?
02:19Yes, of course, the ongoing trade war that continues to escalate and is getting hotter for now,
02:25this makes even the index in the United States itself, S&P and also Dow Jones, drop significantly in March.
02:34So I see that this condition will continue to happen because the market is still waiting,
02:39like what President Trump's policy and what kind of response will be done by the European Union, China,
02:46and also neighboring countries such as Mexico and Canada.
02:51For Indonesia itself, if we export to the United States, it's relatively small,
02:57we may be number 15 out of all there is.
03:01But of course there is still a potential that traders can reach Indonesia.
03:07But for now, we are still exposed to negative catalysts, both from the domestic market and the uncertainty of the trade war.
03:15The uncertainty of the trade war in the United States also creates a kind of polling for the people of the United States,
03:22where about 53% say that Trump's efforts, which is currently considered a bit inconsistent,
03:29tend to make the American economy more at a loss.
03:35What do you think?
03:37Yes, if we look at the latest inflation data in the United States,
03:41it is still under inflation, but it is already below expectations.
03:47It means that if you look at the data, the potential for the United States to lower the flower rate can still happen.
03:54But on the other hand, there is still a reverse data, such as the jobless claim, which turns out to be lower than expected.
04:01So in the coming months, especially if the data is still like this,
04:07it seems that the Fed still has no strong pressure to lower the flower rate.
04:12And inflation can only rise in the United States because of the policy of President Trump at the moment.
04:17Both in the trade war and with a fairly aggressive deportation, this can trigger inflation in the United States.
04:26This is what worries me about the United States' inflation.
04:29The latest data released yesterday is considered to be a bit gloomy, a bit cold.
04:33What is the future projection like?
04:35And what will the impact be on the global economy and the stock market in short?
04:40And what should be the anticipation, Mr. Wawan?
04:43Yes, for the impact itself, I am sure there will still be a lot of volatility.
04:47And for now, the uncertainty makes the stock market sold massively in the United States as well.
04:55This fund will move to fixed income.
05:00And for the global economy itself, I think it will still be the same,
05:04because there will definitely be a lot of investors who will secure positions, including in Indonesia as well.
05:09Moreover, specifically in Indonesia, we are getting closer to the long holiday of Eid.
05:16So, certainly, around the 20th, there will be profit-taking or actions to secure positions.
05:26Okay, we know that Bank Indonesia will hold a meeting of the Governors' Council on the 18th and 19th of March,
05:35which means next week.
05:37Then it will be announced around Rabu about the results of the decision of the Bunga tribe.
05:42What will it be like to see the Bunga tribe, which is currently at 5.75%,
05:46is there a chance to be reduced again in March or will it remain?
05:51Yes, based on the data provided by Mrs. Bungani yesterday,
05:55it is true that from the inflation side, we are experiencing a deflation,
06:00so from that side, it is very likely for BI to reduce the Bunga tribe again, at least 25 basis.
06:08But the challenge is that the exchange rate of rupiah is still above Rp. 16,300-Rp. 16,400.
06:16If the Bunga tribe is reduced, it is worried that it will weaken.
06:20But of course, BI has several options to operate the market so that the rupiah does not weaken further,
06:28even if, for example, our Bunga tribe is reduced.
06:31Because on the other hand, with the government also hoping for economic growth,
06:36the reduction of the Bunga tribe is very much expected by the market.
06:39Okay, the reduction of the Bunga tribe is very much expected by the market.
06:42But on the other hand, there is a gap in the banking sector,
06:47where deposits, for example, are losing from SBN, and the liquidity of the banking sector is also threatened.
06:51And we know that the banking sector has been quite weak since the beginning of the year.
06:56What is your take on the trend of the Bunga tribe,
07:00which may also have a significant impact on the banking sector,
07:04which may lose from other investment instruments?
07:07Yes, of course, although in terms of earnings, the deposit is getting lower,
07:14but it is natural that when the Bunga tribe drops,
07:18the earnings in SBN or in bonds will also drop.
07:24But on the other hand, if we look at the liquidity side,
07:28even though the banking sector is still doing a pretty good job from the last financial report,
07:33but investors are worried that with the decrease in liquidity in the banking sector,
07:39if the BI does not take action or market operations for it,
07:44then even though the Bunga tribe drops, the potential of banks to pay out loans will also be more limited.
07:49But on the other hand, if we look at the projection of our economic growth,
07:55which is still around 5%, there is still room for banks to make a profit.
08:01It means that the current price may also be corrected today,
08:07which can actually be a potential for a buy-on weakness.
08:10Okay, because it is often said that in the first quarter, the adjustment is still a bit slow,
08:16then maybe it will improve in the next quarter.
08:20But you agree, Mr. Wawan, that in the middle of the current banking sector,
08:24many are said to be still growing but tend to slow down.
08:28Well, how to anticipate or face, especially for retail investors
08:34related to the banking sector that tends to slow down?
08:37Yes, of course there are two options.
08:39One, for long-term investors, it can be a buy-on weakness,
08:44because historically, when there is a correction like this, this is a very good opportunity to enter.
08:49Second, do diversification.
08:52If the funds are for the medium-short term, there is actually other potential.
08:58Because it's not just stocks, right?
09:01Investment instruments in Indonesia are also based on fixed income.
09:04And if we look at the real estate industry,
09:08then this obligation is still the driving force for the growth of the real estate market in Indonesia.
09:14Okay, if we talk about switching to fixed income,
09:17you are more interested in the obligation at the moment, right?
09:21If, for example, there are many banks that already own,
09:26and it's not for the short term, but for the medium-to-long term,
09:30and are currently correcting.
09:32Is there any optimism from Mr. Wawan that the banking sector should be kept first?
09:39Especially the blue chips.
09:41Yes, if the banks in Indonesia, especially the blue chips,
09:45always give a fairly high dividend yield.
09:48So this can be an option.
09:50Even the Bank of Indonesia has stated yesterday that the dividend yield is around 2.8%.
09:56So this is also good news when the stock price may drop.
10:01But investors still get cash in the form of the dividend earlier,
10:06which can be an option for other consumers,
10:09or reinvested back into the stock market, especially if it's for the long term.
10:15Okay, the dividend is still considered quite attractive, right?
10:18The newly released one may be the BCA, right?
10:20Do you still feel that the dividend from the BRI,
10:23then also Mandiri maybe, then also BNI,
10:26maybe the payout ratio will not drop?
10:31Yes, historically, the payout ratio for banks, especially BUMN, has never been very low.
10:39And if we talk about BRI, for example,
10:42with the current price, with the assumption dividend like last year,
10:47the dividend is already around 7% for now.
10:50So it's relatively still very interesting.
10:55Mr. Wawan, what kind of stock do you recommend?
10:58For example, with the current weakness,
11:01if we talk about banks, what kind of stock are you more interested in?
11:05Yes, with the short term, we will also face the holiday season,
11:11so it's better to enter the defensive stock first,
11:15one of which is the BCA.
11:18BCA, we will review it later.
11:19Next, there is also a stock from the technology sector, DCII.
11:22This is too vague and maybe a lot of questions from netizens.
11:26Don't be a pioneer, stay with us at MarketBas.