Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun pada perdagangan Rabu hingga lebih dari 1%. Pelemahan diiringi aksi jual utamanya saham blue chip perbankan yaitu BRI dan BNI yang anjlok hingga 5%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Deficit Savings in October
00:05Good morning to all of you who have just joined us.
00:08You are now watching the MarketBuzz program
00:10which will cover a number of analysis recommendations
00:12and information about the current market.
00:14Let's take a look at this morning's opening news.
00:16It seems that Asia is tending to weaken.
00:18But before we take a look at the data from the Asia Stock Exchange,
00:21we present some global economic agendas
00:23that should be taken into consideration.
00:25Among them, Indonesia's Deficit Savings in October,
00:28China's Trade Deficit Savings,
00:30China's Deficit Savings, Singapore's Deficit Savings,
00:33South Korea's Trade Transaction Savings,
00:35Malaysia's Deficit Savings, and Philippine's GDP Savings.
00:38Then, from the United States, POMIERSA claims initial unemployment
00:41and retail sales in September from the European Union,
00:45Trade Deficit Savings from Germany in September.
00:48From the Global POMIERSA Economic Agenda,
00:51we move on to the domestic market,
00:53where in the Indonesian Stock Exchange,
00:55there is Capital Market Summit and Expo, or CMSE.
00:59For those of you who want to join,
01:01you can open the official website of the Indonesian Stock Exchange.
01:05Then, from METEN, there is NetTV RUPS,
01:08VRNA RUPS,
01:10then there is VUTR RUPS,
01:13SMSN KUM Dividend Tunai,
01:15DAPG KUM Dividend Tunai,
01:17BSSR DPS Dividend Tunai,
01:19WINS DPS Dividend Tunai,
01:21and so on.
01:23These are the recommendations on the METEN Agenda,
01:26POMIERSA, which should be your focus,
01:28which could be your reference in investing.
01:32Then, let's see what POMIERSA looks like,
01:34an update from Asia.
01:39POMIERSA claims the victory from Donald Trump,
01:41the Republican Party in the United States.
01:43We can see that Nikkei tends to weaken,
01:45down 0.71 percent,
01:46while Singapore rose 1.2 percent,
01:48Kospi down 0.58 percent,
01:50Hang Seng, Hong Kong down 0.77 percent.
02:13Compared to the Asian stock market,
02:15POMIERSA in the United States,
02:16Wall Street is a record,
02:17not just one index, but all of them.
02:19Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq,
02:21all of them reached the highest record just yesterday.
02:24Wall Street is a record,
02:25led by banks.
02:26POMIERSA, the bank,
02:28is the main supporter of the joint price index
02:30in trading yesterday,
02:32and the IHG rose more than 1 percent to 7,300.
02:35We will discuss this this morning
02:37with Patrick Jorgie,
02:39Research Analyst at the Indonesian Security Agency.
02:42Mr. Patrick, good morning.
02:45Good morning.
02:47Good morning, Mrs. Prisa.
02:49Mr. Patrick, Wall Street is a record,
02:51a victory for Trump,
02:53led by banks.
02:55What is your analysis of Trump's victory?
02:57What makes the opposite happen
02:59in the Asian stock market,
03:01where the majority is doing net sales,
03:03including the IHG that rose more than 1 percent yesterday?
03:06Okay, thank you, Mrs.
03:08It's true,
03:10if we look at the Asian stock market,
03:12whether it's the developed Asian countries
03:14or the emerging markets,
03:16the tendency is to experience weakness,
03:18because it is the result of
03:20the victory of Donald Trump himself.
03:22Because Donald Trump,
03:24including the president,
03:26has a protectionist nature,
03:28where Donald Trump will try to increase
03:30the economic growth of the United States.
03:32So they will be more focused on
03:34the economic growth of the United States.
03:36So they will be more focused on
03:38the economic growth of the United States.
03:40So they will be more focused on
03:42the domestic growth of the United States.
03:44That is also reflected in their slogan,
03:46Make America Great Again.
03:48So we see that
03:50it is something that
03:52we have projected from the beginning.
03:54Because indeed,
03:56for Kamala Harris,
03:58they are more focused on
04:00social issues,
04:02while for Donald Trump,
04:04they will focus on the economy.
04:06So from the topic of discussion
04:08about the concern of investors
04:10regarding Trump's election,
04:12there are three things.
04:14The first is from the tax rate,
04:16where the tax itself
04:18in the United States
04:20has the potential to be lowered
04:22because Trump is pro-low tax.
04:24This leads to concerns
04:26about the inflation of the United States.
04:28As we know,
04:30at the moment, the United States' inflation
04:32is in the decline trend.
04:34And it will also be accompanied
04:36And for 2025,
04:38the big picture that will be a fresh wind
04:40is from the decline trend of the flower family.
04:42So that is what makes
04:44the concern that later
04:46Trump will be in office
04:48and the tax rate will be lowered,
04:50it leads to concerns about
04:52the inflation that will again experience an increase.
04:54Like that. Then the second point
04:56is from the import tariff.
04:58We need to remember that this import tariff
05:00applies not only to China
05:02or like what happened
05:04during the trade war.
05:06But Trump himself increased
05:08the import tariff for
05:10the countries that want
05:12to enter the United States
05:14by 20%.
05:16And for China itself,
05:18the import tariff is 60%.
05:20So that is what
05:22makes the concern
05:24for the exporting countries,
05:26one of which is Indonesia.
05:28Because we are one of the largest
05:30trading partners for the United States.
05:32In other words,
05:34China is a trading partner
05:36and also one of the largest trading partners
05:38after China.
05:40So it has the potential
05:42to affect our trade
05:44if it is
05:46implemented.
05:48And the third point is
05:50from the topic
05:52or the agenda of
05:54Donald Trump is about anti-immigration.
05:56As we know,
05:58Donald Trump is quite
06:00strict on anti-immigration,
06:02especially to the countries
06:04around them.
06:06Especially one of the countries,
06:08China, which has started
06:10to invest
06:12in several countries
06:14around the United States,
06:16such as Mexico.
06:18As we can see, the increase
06:20in China's investment
06:22is increasing
06:24so that it can enter
06:26through Mexico to the United States.
06:28So, Mr. Patrick,
06:30there is an import tariff, anti-immigration,
06:32and there is also an opportunity for an increase in inflation.
06:34Yes, that's right.
06:36But why is the World Bank
06:38the leader of the World Bank?
06:40If you talk about inflation,
06:42what is the connection?
06:44Moreover, there will be a meeting of the Fed
06:46this weekend.
06:48Okay, if we talk about
06:50the decline in the number of
06:52domestic banks,
06:54it is more about
06:56foreign flow.
06:58If we look at the ISG itself,
07:00there has been an outflow
07:02for the last week.
07:04As far as I remember,
07:06there are about
07:08two trillion more
07:10out of our regular market.
07:12In addition, if we look at a month,
07:14there are about 4.72 trillion more.
07:16And if we also look at
07:18the outflow
07:20from our banks,
07:22the foreign flow is also experiencing...
07:24Mr. Patrick, let's talk about the US Bank.
07:26The US Bank is the leader
07:28in strengthening the US Bank.
07:30Is there a chance that the US Bank will be affected?
07:32Or do you think that the US Bank
07:34will be affected
07:36due to the US stock market's
07:38weakening?
07:40If we look at it,
07:42it is more likely that the US Bank
07:44will be affected
07:46due to the US stock market's
07:48weakening.
07:50Because the prospects of the US Bank
07:52under the leadership of
07:54President Donald Trump will be more
07:56likely to be affected.
07:58Okay, that's also what makes
08:00the US Bank
08:02experiencing a weakening.
08:04And we can see that the US Dollar
08:06is in favor of Trump's victory.
08:08The gold price has fallen,
08:10and the rupiah is at 15,800.
08:12But you have explained earlier
08:14why Trump's victory
08:16attracted foreign net sales.
08:18How far do you see Trump's victory
08:20in attracting foreign net sales,
08:22especially in our domestic market?
08:24Okay, if we talk about
08:26how far,
08:28we can see that
08:30this concern can be reflected
08:32in the DXY index,
08:34which was mentioned earlier.
08:36The DXY index experienced
08:38more than 2%,
08:40and the US Treasury
08:42experienced more than
08:4425 points.
08:46So if we look at it,
08:48we can see that
08:50the riskier instruments,
08:52such as the stock market,
08:54especially the emerging market,
08:56are more likely to be saved
08:58by the US.
09:00So if we talk about
09:02how far,
09:04we can see that
09:06the opportunity can be
09:08seen until the end of this month.
09:10Will there be additional stimulus
09:12to turn back the table?
09:14In other words,
09:16we need more stimulus
09:18than that.
09:20Because if we talk about stimulus
09:22or the current sentiment
09:24that has become a market concern,
09:26it is more related to the election
09:28of Donald Trump's president.
09:30Although on Friday,
09:32there will be a flower harvest.
09:34But it feels like the US flower harvest
09:36is expected to be priced in the market.
09:38So we need a little additional stimulus
09:40or a stronger sentiment
09:42to add
09:44to the interest of the capital market,
09:46especially in the emerging market.
09:48Okay.
09:50So it is not yet possible to project
09:52how far Trump's victory will lead to foreign net sales.
09:54But for this morning,
09:56how do you project?
09:58There is a rebound chance,
10:00but if we look at it earlier,
10:02it looks like only the S&P 500,
10:04I mean, the Strait Times from Singapore.
10:06Yes.
10:08If we look at it,
10:10today,
10:12it will try to retest
10:14the existing support.
10:16Where if we look at it
10:18technically,
10:20we see that there is an area of 7,320
10:22to 7,360.
10:24Where it is
10:26a strong support.
10:28So if, for example,
10:30the IASG experiences a decline,
10:32the range will be the range that we can see
10:34as a support that will support the decline.
10:36But if we talk about
10:38a week or a month,
10:40the IASG will tend to move
10:42ranging or sideways.
10:44Where the movement itself has a potential
10:46in the area of 7,600
10:48to 7,300.
10:50Because it really needs
10:52sentiment or catalyst
10:54that is very strong
10:56so that our IASG can
10:58return to the strengthening path.
11:00Can you repeat?
11:02What is the level of strong resistance?
11:04For the support itself,
11:06we are at level 7,320
11:08up to level 7,360.
11:10That is the support area.
11:12And for the movement,
11:14it will tend to move sideways.
11:16With the resistance, the IASG may be
11:18in the range of 7,600
11:20for the IASG up to 7,550.
11:22Okay.
11:24The trading opening this morning,
11:26the IASG fell again at 7,370
11:28although not as deep as yesterday.
11:30The name is still early minutes.
11:32It fell 0.1 percent.
11:34If it does touch, as you said,
11:36at 7,330,
11:38what is the IASG trend?
11:40Is it still consolidating?
11:42If we take
11:44in a week or
11:46the last two weeks,
11:48yes, it is consolidating.
11:50But we need to see
11:52this support is a support
11:54that is said to be quite strong
11:56because it was formed on
11:58August 2024
12:00as a resistance.
12:02Actually,
12:04this support is said to be quite strong
12:06although in terms of a week
12:08or up to two weeks, the IASG tends to
12:10experience consolidation.
12:12Okay, that's it.
12:14If for example,
12:16to 7,330,
12:18that means the IASG
12:20is in the downward trend, right?
12:22Yes, that's right.
12:24At the moment, it is still consolidating.
12:26We are waiting for the opportunity.
12:28But you see, in the short term,
12:30it will still weaken first
12:32because there is a big market
12:34in the country that can push the IASG
12:36to experience consolidation.
12:38But it is still more dominant,
12:40especially from the United States,
12:42which tends to be positive
12:44for the domestic stock market.
12:46Later, we will discuss
12:48Bank Mandiri, BRI, BNI,
12:50BCA, Telkom,
12:52which are all in the same category
12:54with the weakest
12:56performance,
12:58still 5% for Bank Mandiri and BNI.
13:00Stay tuned with us on MarketBas.