It's almost mid-November, but forecasters are still expecting another named storm in the Caribbean.
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00:00So here we have a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms.
00:03Most of the activity right now is in a broad area,
00:06and it's kind of ambiguously circulating, but it's not very focused yet.
00:10Out to the south of the Dominican Republic and south of Haiti,
00:13and there are a couple of spotty thunderstorms over Jamaica, but that's no surprise.
00:17This is just driven by the daytime warming and over the mountains.
00:20Otherwise, small-scale showers elsewhere.
00:22So we'll be watching this disturbance.
00:24We're still a few days from development.
00:26Satellite loop, kind of filling in the gaps beyond the simulated radar.
00:30It was based on satellite as well.
00:32And there is some deeper convection here, mainly south of the Dominican Republic side.
00:36Some activity on the southwest side of Haiti.
00:39And again, the western part of the Caribbean is generally drier,
00:43and also we don't have much of any deep convection into the Gulf itself right now.
00:48So here we have a front that's draped across the region on the north side near Cuba,
00:52the Turks and Caicos, and the tail of this front is nearly stationary.
00:55South of the front here, this time of the year where we're going to likely see development,
01:00showers and thunderstorms into this area of the central and west central Caribbean eventually.
01:05But again, we don't get fronts like this in August or July.
01:08They just don't make it.
01:10They die farther to the north, maybe north of Bermuda and over I-40.
01:15So this is a November-like pattern.
01:17It's kind of the telltale sign of late-season activity here
01:22And we have strong wind shear over the Gulf,
01:24and we can basically close most of the Gulf off here regarding new development.
01:28But there's not much shear this far south, down to the south of Jamaica,
01:32so it's late this week and this weekend where we have a high likelihood.
01:35We bumped up to the red here, high likelihood of development,
01:38mainly west of the current location for the bulk of the moisture.
01:41So it is going to be moving west, and by the 14th to the 18th here,
01:45late this week right through the weekend.
01:47Remember, today Veterans Day is the 11th, 12th, 13th, the 14th.
01:50It takes us to Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, arguably next Monday as well.
01:55Again, we're going to be looking at development.
01:57Now, big picture, where can we give generally the all-clear for tropical threats
02:01for the U.S. coastline between now and, say, Thanksgiving
02:04and most likely even beyond that time for the rest of the season?
02:08We don't think we're going to see anything else north of Cape Hatteras.
02:11We don't think we're going to see anything.
02:13We kind of shut things down over the western Gulf weeks ago.
02:15But the most likely area to be at risk would be generally south Florida and the Florida Keys.
02:20Sometimes we get these storms that kind of round the bend and hook it through that region
02:24on their way back into the Atlantic from the southwest to the northeast.
02:28So that's our main concern.
02:29And if we do see development, which we probably will, Sarah will be the next storm's name.