Forecasters are watching an area of concern in the Caribbean that they say is likely to turn into Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Sara.
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00:00The tropics are showing no signs of slowing down quite yet as we step into mid-November.
00:04Another threat is lurking down south of Hispaniola.
00:07Now, Bernie Rayno spoke earlier with AccuWeather chief meteorologist John Porter
00:12about this latest round of activity in the Caribbean.
00:16This has been a repeated pattern this year. Look at these thunderstorms across the Caribbean Sea.
00:21Pressures are lowering and over time here this is going to be the trouble spot once again.
00:27These thunderstorms will consolidate I think pretty quickly into a tropical storm late this week.
00:32Let's go over this. We think that this is going to organize over the next couple of days.
00:36Then as it moves into the northwest Caribbean, let's say Friday into Saturday,
00:41that's where we think this is going to be a named storm and you all are all
00:44concerned that it's not only a hurricane but a major hurricane by early next week.
00:48That was a consensus and our hurricane experts are concerned that this is going to likely become
00:53a tropical storm, hurricane and major hurricane here as we head through the next five or so days
00:59in the Caribbean and then it can be drawn north.
01:02All right, let's talk about this. John, all morning I've been talking about maybe a five percent
01:06chance that the dip in the jet stream that's coming into the northeast, let's say Wednesday
01:11night into Thursday, could pick this hurricane up early next week and move it to the north and east
01:18out of the picture. That seems so unlikely. So this is what we think are the two scenarios as we
01:24move forward, John, and it's all one of the biggest keys is that area of high pressure across Florida.
01:30Explain. Yes, as this area of high pressure drifts slowly off to the south and east,
01:34its intensity and location is going to be key. At first the storm will start to move to the west
01:40but as that area of high pressure drifts off to the south and east, a northerly route can open up
01:46and that is why we're concerned that the storm as a major hurricane can be drawn north toward Cuba
01:51and then into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and may threaten Florida and other parts of the
01:56southeast as we head toward next week, the end of next week. If that high remains strong then the
02:01western track persists and then it goes into Central America. And really quickly, John, in about
02:0615 seconds, South Florida has fortunately missed out on a lot of storms but climatologically
02:13Florida this time of the year is a place to look for impacts. It sure is, that's why we want
02:17everybody in Florida to be monitoring this very closely here on the AccuWeather Network.
02:23All right, AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter, Storm Nate 18 on the way.
02:32All right, let's get a closer look at that storm now, where it's going and other activity in the
02:38tropics as well. We're taking you out to Aruba, seeing some people out and about. Not so bad
02:45there in Aruba, but there are areas that are getting soaked across parts of the Caribbean
02:50and we even still have the ghost or at least the shell of Rafael impacting some parts of the U.S.,
02:58mostly here along the coast. We do have some small craft advisories here along the Gulf Coast of the
03:03U.S., even extending along the Atlantic Coast as well with those onshore winds. But overall we are
03:09tracking or at least watching for that threat for rough surf, strong rip currents. There are rip
03:15current statements out across those same zones, so just make sure you're staying weather aware
03:21before you head out, especially if you are heading out on a smaller craft. We do have that high risk
03:26here in the Caribbean that's going to go from November 13th through the 15th. This is our most
03:32updated with your exclusive AccuWeather forecast and you know a lot is telling us that this is
03:37likely to develop. We do have that higher ocean heat content here sitting in the Caribbean. If you
03:43look at the numbers where you're seeing those reds, that's where we have the warmer waters and the
03:49deeper the warmer waters go if you take a vertical column of the oceans. Now a little cooler here
03:54sitting in the Gulf, you know Rafael spinning up those waters, it's going to remain relatively
04:00cooler especially in comparison to the Caribbean, but you know will some of the Gulf warm up? Will
04:06it ride some of that heat that's extending around Cuba? Who knows, but we'll need to see if it's
04:12enough to really push this storm north because you're starting to see a little bit of a spike
04:17here over the last few days in the Gulf of Mexico when it comes to that ocean heat content because
04:22we had dropped down to previous levels. Though here in the MDR, Caribbean included, we've been
04:28running above that here still and we have plenty of moisture to help draw from this storm sitting
04:34out in the Caribbean right now and you know we'll see these pockets of low wind shear and that's
04:40just going to help fuel these storms as they do head into the future Jeff.