10 Day Trend – Snow and ice return
Large parts of the UK have seen temperatures over 20 C this week but a return to winter is on the way. Easter weekend will be dry but by Monday a significant wind chill will bring a very cold feel along with sleet and snow showers.
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00:00Welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. Be prepared for a big change. Now, this
00:06change is going to kind of happen in two stages. After plenty of warm sunshine for
00:11most of us over the past few days, temperatures will be dropping back
00:15closer to average. But I must stress, for many, the looming Easter weekends will
00:21bring plenty of fine weather, but temperatures will be back much closer to
00:25average. It's during the second half of the long weekend that things really
00:29start to change quite dramatically as we see another drop in temperatures. And by
00:35early next week, it will be much colder than usual and also turning quite a bit
00:40wetter as well. For the time being, though, the weather is generally set fair.
00:44Certainly across England and Wales, we've seen plenty of sunshine, but this cold
00:47front is moving in and removing those 20-degree pluses that we've seen through
00:52Tuesday and Wednesday, at least for most of us. As that cooler air sinks its way
00:57southwards, it doesn't quite reach the far southwest. So still some pretty warm
01:01conditions here on Thursday, but a big drop for places like Hull down through
01:06Lincolnshire and into East Anglia, where temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
01:10lower through Thursday. That weather front, though, is really just bringing a
01:13bit of cloud. There will be a rain around, so most places will be dry and fine
01:18through Thursday and will stay that way thanks to this large area of high
01:21pressure, which dominates through Good Friday and Saturday too. The high, though,
01:26is sitting to the northeast, and with the winds toppling around it like that,
01:29that's going to bring cooler conditions, again, especially to those easternmost
01:33areas that have seen the highest temperatures this week. But the high
01:37pressure will also bring a lot of dry and fine weather through Good Friday and
01:42Saturday. Many places won't see any rain at all. There'll be more cloud around
01:47perhaps than we've had of late, but still sunny spells, especially in the west.
01:51Gardeners take note, however, there will be the potential for frosty mornings. It
01:56will be cooler, but it has been exceptionally warm. So temperatures will
02:01just be back closer to average and it will feel pleasant if you get some sunny
02:06spells. Most notably, it will be colder on that east coast, as I mentioned. However,
02:11a bigger change happens through Easter Day itself and into Monday. This cold
02:17front, follow the ice bars pointing all the way up to the Arctic. Very cold air
02:23is on its way. Bitterly cold winds accompanying all behind this cold front
02:29as it swings its way southwards during the second half of Sunday, and it's right
02:34across the country by Monday. Look at those blues just flooding down, much
02:38colder air in place as we go into Bank Holiday Monday, and feeling even colder
02:44because of those winds. Now, I wouldn't normally show charts for individual days
02:49and the 10-day trends, but because of the confidence, because it is Easter Day, I
02:52thought I'd show this chart because just to emphasise again, for most of England
02:55and Wales, Sunday is still a fine day. But there's that weather front bringing the
03:00cloud and a band of rain that will swing through. It will be rain at this stage, but
03:04also starting to introduce that colder air. Further south with some sunny spells,
03:09again, temperatures could easily climb into the teens. However, Monday is a
03:14different ballgame for all of us. By then, that front has swung its way
03:17southwards across all of England and Wales. So we're all in the colder air. And
03:21yes, there will be wintry showers. We'll see showers with this northerly flow,
03:27mostly around north-facing coasts, down North Sea coast as well, but also
03:31potentially around some western coasts. We could get a Pembrokeshire dangler.
03:35Google that. It's a convergence line that brings showers to Pembrokeshire, possibly
03:39Devon and Cornwall as well. And a lot of these showers will have sleet, snow mixed
03:45in, even down to lower levels. Now, we've got to the stage, time of year, where road
03:49surfaces have warmed up quite a bit. So we're not expecting the snow to stick,
03:54certainly not at low levels. But on the hills across parts of northern Britain,
03:57there will be some on vegetation. That snow is likely to potentially cause a few
04:03issues. And these are the temperatures for Monday, 7 to 9 degrees Celsius.
04:07We might squeak double figures with a bit of sunshine here and there.
04:10These temperatures, more typical, more close to the average for January.
04:16And don't forget to add on the wind. It will feel even colder.
04:20So look at Hull, for example, again, over 20 degrees earlier in the week.
04:24By Monday, we're looking at a fields-like temperature of just 2 Celsius and feeling
04:28sub-zero across northern parts of Scotland. So a big shock to the system.
04:33Sunny spells and wintry showers during Monday. So many places will be dry,
04:38but everywhere it will feel cold. Now, for most of us, that just means we need to dig
04:43the big coat out again. But of course, that big change, that big shift to colder
04:47conditions will have some impacts on certain industries, particularly farming,
04:52especially as we're in the middle of the lambing season. But also, gardeners,
04:56as I said earlier, take note. It is going to be turning an awful lot colder.
05:01Just prepare yourselves for that and maybe take precautions. Protect your delicate
05:06plants if you can. And don't be thinking of planting too many through this long
05:10weekend because of the cold spell on its way early next week.
05:15Beyond that, well, there's not a lot to say except we're not expecting too many changes.
05:20Here's the bigger picture for Good Friday. The jet stream is well to the north.
05:23So we're on the warmer side of the jet. But behind me, the jet is really starting
05:28to invigorate across the eastern side of Canada. And as it does so,
05:33it pushes northwards and then drives its way southwards. And we are then stuck
05:38in this trough. And it's in here that low pressure systems are likely to generate.
05:44And that's the setup it looks like for much of next week. Low pressure and cold air will be
05:49the dominant features. This is the pressure, the probabilistic pressure trends as we go
05:55through next week with the dates along the bottom. Red is high pressure.
05:58Blue is low pressure. So, yes, high pressure dominating through the first half of the
06:02Easter weekend. But look at that. Low pressure set to take control really from
06:07Sunday onwards, 70, 80 percent likelihood that low pressure will dominate throughout next week.
06:14And this next chart shows the wind direction or the tendency of where our flow will come from.
06:20Blue being northerly and red being southerly. A lot of blue on that chart again from Sunday
06:26onwards, going back in time here through previous computer model runs.
06:29Again, a pretty solid signal that northerly winds will dominate throughout next week.
06:34So, yes, expect cold and with low pressure nearby, that means unsettled weather.
06:38So spells of wet weather, cold enough for further wintry problems as well.
06:42Rain, sleet, snow with low pressure generating close to the UK.
06:46Can't really give details of when and how much we'll see at this stage, but stay tuned to the forecast.
06:52Snow isn't expected, as I say, to build up on roads or anything at this stage.
06:56But frost and ice will be an issue and there will be snow lying on the hills across northern Britain.
07:02If it makes you feel any better, I'm on leave next week.
07:05Make sure you keep up to date with the very latest over the next few days.
07:09Some dramatic weather on the way.
07:10The best way to do that, of course, is to follow us on social media.