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00:00The great thing about October, not only playoff baseball to
00:06fill the days without football but also the fact that football
00:10is only ever two days away throughout September and
00:13October around the National Football League. Week number
00:17five starts in just two days. Short week Thursday night
00:20football game. Another divisional duel and might this
00:23be the best we have seen. Week two wasn't great in Miami
00:27because of the injury to Tua Tungabailoa. Week three, eh,
00:31Jets hammering the Patriots. The Cowboys and the Giants was
00:35closer maybe than we expected but not a pretty game. How
00:38about this one, Joe? Two bona fide contenders for the NFC
00:41South and two teams playing decent football at this moment.
00:46To Atlanta, we go. Standalone primetime game. The Falcons a
00:50slight. One and a half point favorite. Minus 126 on the
00:53money line at this moment. Forty-three and a half against
00:56the three and one Tampa Bay Buccaneers who currently have
01:01the best record in the NFC South who have won three
01:05consecutive NFC South divisional crowns and yet the
01:09Falcons back to the favored side in this division as they
01:13were before the year got underway. Joe, what are your
01:16early thoughts here on the early line looking at the early
01:20lines for the start of week five of this NFL season? Well,
01:24we can tell you right now that Thursday night game. Primetime
01:27under is now fourteen and ten. Kurt Cousins under nine of his
01:32last ten starts. He's eight and three to the under as a
01:35primetime starter since 2020. Oh yeah, Baker Mayfield thirteen
01:39and two to the under in primetime here. So, short week.
01:44Uh I would tend to think the way both these teams are able
01:47to run the ball. That's what we're gonna see a lot of. If it
01:51wasn't for a blocked punt touchdown and a pick six, that
01:56game would have went under against the Saints as well. So,
01:59I do think forty-three and a half. Uh I would only look at
02:03the under in that game and think we get a big big uh big
02:06big rushing game out of both teams and both the running
02:10backs in that series should be interesting. All three short
02:14week Thursday night football games have gone under and
02:17pretty substantially so so far this year. Buffalo and Miami
02:21week number two. Week three, the Jets and the Pats played a
02:25game with a total of thirty-eight and a half and it
02:28stayed well under only twenty-seven combined points.
02:30Pretty similar story last week in Met Life as well. The
02:34Falcons first over of the year was Sunday against the Saints
02:38first over of the year Joe as you alluded to in a game where
02:41Atlanta didn't score an offensive touchdown. A ton of
02:44young way, a muff punt that was recovered into the end zone
02:47for an Atlanta touchdown and of course, a pick six of Derek
02:52Carr. Joe, when you look at the Buccaneers, nobody since the
02:55start of last year has been a better underdog team than
02:58Tampa. Last week, slight home underdog against the Eagles.
03:02They win outright. Week number two on the road in Detroit
03:05catching near a touchdown. They win outright. It's only a point
03:09and a half spread as you can see pretty close distinction on
03:12the money line as well but the Buccaneers are eleven and four
03:15against the number as an underdog. The only team in the
03:19best cover percentage of teams booked as a dog at least five
03:24times since the start of 2023 and if you're saying, alright,
03:28well, what are they going to cover? Lose by a point here.
03:30They've won eight of those eleven covers outright. Eight
03:34and seven straight up. A winning record outright as an
03:38underdog. I do think the Buccaneers are being slightly
03:42discredited here with how good they have been in the NFC
03:45South whether it's been Tom Brady or Baker Mayfield. How
03:49good they've been under Baker. An uncharacteristic game where
03:53they were really banged up defensively against the Denver
03:56Broncos. They were healthy on Sunday. We saw the results
03:59against Philly. Yeah, I mean and really as good as Baker has
04:03been and he's playing at a very high level right now. I think
04:06he had almost 107 QBR in that in that game. It was 100
04:11degrees by the way on the field. It was a very hot and
04:14humid day for the end of September and you can tell
04:17Philadelphia was struggling but really the the running back
04:21Bucky Irvin. I mean getting six yards and carry. They still
04:24have white. They I mean this is a team that can run the ball
04:28and is not one dimensional with the way that he is playing. So
04:32Tampa survived the injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
04:37This is a real team that should win their division here, man.
04:40Let's be realistic fourth best passer rating in the National
04:44Football League. That is Baker Mayfield second most touchdowns
04:47thrown this year. He has eight to only two interceptions. We
04:53still need to see more offensively out of Kirk Cousins
04:56and Atlanta again. They won last week did not cover as a
05:01slight home favorite in another divisional game against the
05:04Saints, but they did so without an offensive touchdown. Just
05:09something to pay attention to. So that's Thursday night
05:12football, a divisional duel in the A for the first time in
05:162024. We go across the pond to foggy old London town. The
05:21undefeated bike to the jets. Now here we are on the opening
05:25day of October. We will preview all four games of playoff
05:29baseball that begin today in our next segment, but here on
05:34the early line, we take a look at the early lines for a new
05:37week in the National Football League. Even on a Tuesday week
05:42five begins short week Thursday night divisional duel in
05:44Atlanta between the Falcons and the Bucks. That's fun, but man
05:48we gotta wait till Sunday at 1 PM Eastern for our next NFL
05:52game like we do every week wrong. First time we go across
05:56the pond. The international series begins in London on
06:00Sunday with an undefeated Vikings team. One of the two
06:04unbeaten four and oh teams alongside Kansas City,
06:08Minnesota will take on Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets
06:12as they look to bounce back from a dreadful loss to Denver
06:16and some drama of brewing within that gangrene organization.
06:21Joe, let's start with the line two and a half points in favor
06:25of the Vikes. Listen, Minnesota deserves every bit of their four
06:30and oh start. They are not just one of two remaining
06:33undefeated teams. They are the only unbeaten team against the
06:36number a perfect four and oh ATS at the end of the opening
06:39month of this NFL season. Their last three wins, however,
06:43outright as an underdog. This is the first time for Minnesota
06:47as a favorite second time in five weeks since their opening
06:51game of the year as a very slight point and a half
06:54favorite in that life against the other New York team. That
06:58being the Giants, they won that game comfortably 28 to six
07:03again. It feels deserving for the Vikings as a favorite, but
07:08how do you approach the spread seeing Minnesota laying the
07:10number? Yeah, as much as this is going to pain me because I
07:15had the Jets in that Broncos game and wanted to throw up
07:18watching it. This is another spot here, Ben, where it's
07:23going to be Jets or nothing for me because we already know
07:26wouldn't shock me if this starts creeping up. We know the
07:28public is not going to back the Jets here. The four and oh
07:32overhyped Minnesota Vikings are going to get all the public
07:36love. This is exactly the kind of spot. We've already seen it.
07:39We saw it last week. In fact, with Tampa Bay, we've seen it
07:43with the Panthers already where the public is going. Absolutely
07:48not teams off a horrible offensive performance are
07:52usually great teams, especially with experienced quarterbacks.
07:55They're great teams to come back on the following week, and
07:59I think we're going to see that in a big, big way in this game.
08:02Listen, 15 penalties drop passes. The Jets beat themselves
08:08in that game. They weren't beaten by the Broncos. The Jets
08:12beat themselves. They have a week, although a short week
08:16here with the trip. Now they've got to clean that up. All of
08:19that stuff is very fixable. It should not take that long. And
08:24by the way, a Brian Flores defense. I don't think it's
08:27going to confuse Aaron Rodgers here. The Jets would be the
08:30only way dog or pass in this one for me, Ben. Yeah, it's
08:34going to be really interesting Joe because the offense was the
08:37issue. There's no doubt about it. The New York Jets defense
08:40played well in that game and far good enough for New York to at
08:44least come out with a victory losing outright as a seven and
08:48a half point underdog. What has been one of the bright spots
08:51for the Jets this year as Aaron Rodgers shakes off the rust.
08:55The ground game, the rookie Braylon Allen alongside Brees
08:58Hall, 64 yards on the ground, 2.8 yards per pop against
09:03Denver on Sunday. Brees Hall, 10 carries for four yards and
09:08both guys were involved in the receiving game and they were on
09:11Sunday to an extent, but certainly in the opening three
09:14weeks, Brees Hall, two catches on five targets, 14 yards.
09:18Braylon Allen, one grab for 12 yards. It needs to be better
09:21against Minnesota and frankly Joe. Yeah, they gave up 29
09:25points at the end of the game to the Green Bay Packers.
09:28That's going to skew their stats from a yardage perspective
09:31from defending Jordan through for nearly 400 and four
09:35touchdowns, but the Vikings are the fourth best scoring
09:38offense in the National Football League and defensively
09:41have been pretty good under Brian Flores, fourth best
09:44scoring defense still allowing less than 15 points per game,
09:49but it does feel like if there was ever an opportunity for
09:53that first loss of the year to come for the Vikes, it would be
09:56this one and although the game is not in Minneapolis, it's not
09:59in the Twin Cities. It's across the pond in London as we know
10:02Aaron Rodgers is familiar playing Minnesota. This will be
10:06the thirtieth game that Aaron Rodgers has played against this
10:09Vikings organization in his career. He is 1711 and one
10:15straight up against the Vikings in that span. Yeah, it's there
10:20is no doubt their coaching matters in the NFL and we have
10:23said it in the Vikings and what they have done to Sam. Donald
10:27is unbelievable. The turnaround that we're seeing no doubt.
10:30Don't forget Donald number one pick of the Jets back in the
10:33day and they basically failed him on every level by giving
10:37him Adam Gase and the fact that he's not out of the league
10:40right now is a testament to how tough he must truly be, but he
10:44has found a home there, but let's not forget he also
10:48single-handedly was responsible for allowing Green Bay to get
10:51back into that game on Sunday. So we know the flaws are there.
10:56The question is the Jets defense good enough to expose
10:59it. We shall see revenge game for Sam Donald, albeit in
11:05London town on Sunday morning, Joe. We have seen drastic odds
11:09movement for both of these teams for the New York Jets
11:12really after the result week for losing to the Broncos because
11:16the numbers were pretty standard as they had kind of
11:18figured things out weeks two and three beating up on the
11:21Titans and the Patriots, but now plus 270 to win the AFC East.
11:26The bills remain the odds on favorite 17 to one to win the
11:30AFC in the Super Bowl price longer as well at 21 to one.
11:35Nobody has seen more positive odds movement than the Vikings
11:38one of two teams that is undefeated, but by far the most
11:42surprising one and they have looked more impressive in being
11:44undefeated than even Kansas City plus 125. The Vikes now the
11:49favorites to win the NFC North plus 750 now fourth best price
11:53for Minnesota to win the NFC crown a 17 to one number Joe.
11:58Let's start with Minnesota. It sounds like you favor New York
12:01to pull off the slight upset in London on Sunday, but Minnesota
12:06would still be four and one. Do you believe this is a
12:10Cinderella opening month situation or will the Vikings be
12:14a double digit win team and into the playoffs when all is said
12:17and done? Yeah, listen, there's there's no doubt they have been
12:22they've been great through September, but we all know Ben
12:25teams that run the table in September are often nowhere to
12:30be found come the end of October. so it is a very very
12:33long season. I do think in fact that in a lot of aspects, the
12:37Vikings have got a lot of things that have gone their way, but I
12:42do think that there is regression coming in this team.
12:46Congratulations. You only play the teams that are on your
12:49schedule, but as as this moves forward here, I do think the
12:53Vikings starting this week might see a little bit of
12:56regression coming in would not shock me and namely, I think
13:01Sam Donald will come back down to earth sooner rather than
13:04later. He right now leaves the National Football League in
13:08touchdown passes with eleven. He has the fifth best price to
13:11win the NFL MVP award. I believe he should be in
13:14consideration and I believe he keeps pace with some of those
13:18numbers. Listen. I don't expect Minnesota to fall off and be
13:21eight and nine or nine and eight at the end of the year
13:24and nine and eight might be enough to earn a playoff spot.
13:26I think the Lions end up winning the NFC North, but Joe
13:30there's a good chance we might see three of the four teams
13:32from this division contend for playoff spots. The Bears will
13:36be on the outside, but the Packers should be there as well
13:39for the New York Jets assuming they win this game in London is
13:43now than the time to buy back on the division price on the
13:46playoff price. How do you see things going from here on out
13:49for gangrene? Oh, it's a much easier path for the Jets and it
13:53is the Vikings though, right? They basically have Buffalo in
13:56front of them that they they are yet to play. It's quite
14:00obvious Miami and New England are not a threat right now. So
14:06the Jets who have an opportunity here coming up in a
14:09couple of weeks to take on Buffalo. That's where their
14:13opportunity lies easier path for the Jets to win the NFC
14:17East and the Vikings to win the NFC North. We thought the AFC
14:21East might be the most competitive division. The NFC
14:23North now appears to be that side of where things are in
14:28football and man the Dolphins are going to be bad. The
14:31Patriots are bad as we expected. There is some life for
14:35the New York Jets at a time favored to make the postseason.
14:39Now it's a pick them minus 110.