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00:00All right, Joe, it's time for the pick six now for the NFL
00:06week six Sunday slate and beyond. Again, a reminder of
00:11the pick six, our favorite touchdown score, a pater pick
00:15for you. Moneyline underdog to pull off the outright upset.
00:17Our favorite under of the weekend. An alt line with a
00:21sprinkle of plus money. Our favorite yardage prop. Joe and
00:24I thinking about the same guy but in two different ways and
00:28we combine forces, excuse me, for a two-leg six-point teaser
00:34that through five weeks, Joe, in the year of the underdog, we
00:37have not hit on together yet. Might it happen in week six?
00:41Let's start with the touchdown score. What do you like? I'm
00:46gonna go quick cuz II can't remember the last time we were
00:49able to get this at this price here and I'm going to go back
00:53to a very old reliable Mark Andrews anytime touchdown at
00:58better than three to one here. Uh Ben, listen, Andrews has
01:03always been Lamar's guy but he's also finally now getting
01:07healthier by the week. Uh I mean, a training camp car
01:11accident, an injury last year and all of a sudden, we're
01:16trying to figure out where is Mark Andrews, what's going on?
01:19He's now gone eight straight. Lamar Jackson starts without a
01:23TD. He never went more than six. He's facing an awful pass
01:28defense here that's already allowed. Eleven passing
01:31touchdowns. Uh I have no doubt that he is gonna be involved in
01:36this and get back on track with Lamar. This is the game and the
01:39price you wanna back Mark Andrews getting in anytime
01:42touchdown. It's an astronomical number. Lamar Jackson threw
01:46three touchdowns a week ago. Two of them to a tight end just
01:50not Mark X. Actually, they get four passing touchdowns last
01:54week. Three of them to tight ends. Charlie Kohler, the
01:57second-year player out of Iowa State and two to Isaiah likely
02:01although Mark Andrews was evolved in the passing attack.
02:05Joe, same kind of thought process for me. CD Lam minus 125
02:10against the Detroit Lions. It's the highest total of the
02:12weekend. Fifty-two and a half. We saw CD Lam verbally upset
02:18last week at Dak Prescott for what was an abysmal
02:21interception thrown late. Well, the last time CD was happy or
02:26not happy, excuse me and then owned up to it was the game for
02:30the Cowboys where he had seven grabs on eight targets for 98
02:34yards and a touchdown against the New York Giants. CD only
02:37has two TDs this year. He'll find pay dirt for at least a
02:41third time on Sunday against Detroit. The Lions secondary
02:45still a little bit of a work in progress this season. Yeah,
02:49no. Again, he is the guy that you have to scheme against and
02:53worry about and even teams like Pittsburgh for instance here.
02:58There's only so much you can do and I think that connection is
03:02going to have to carry the Cowboys for a while. I'm with
03:05you here, Ben. It's it's that combo or a bus for Dallas.
03:09Alright, Moneyline Underdog time. Joe, who pulls off the
03:12slight upset this week outright. Yeah, well, it's not
03:17a huge underdog, but it's an underdog nonetheless and I
03:20believe Jacksonville goes home to London and wins this game at
03:25plus money. I think they win it out here. I do not still as
03:29good as I think Chicago looks or has looked over the last
03:34couple of weeks and Caleb Williams. I do think what we
03:37got in that game against Indy from Trevor Lawrence and that
03:42offense. I think that could be the catalyst for them to start
03:45getting the ball rolling here. I don't think they're going to
03:48regress. I think the offense is going to have success against a
03:52huge zone playing Chicago defense and I do think when
03:56it's all said and done, they'll have their second win. By the
04:00way, they're staying for another week to play another
04:03game next week there. So, I like Jacksonville's chances in
04:07this one to pull the upset. Which is what the Jaguars did
04:11last year. They were a perfect two and oh in their London
04:14games, including outright as a five and a half point dog
04:17against Buffalo in their second London game a year ago. They
04:21have played eleven games across the pond. They're six and five.
04:25They're two and oh in Tottenham Stadium. The recipe for the
04:29Jags. By the way, the Bears two losses this year, both away
04:33from Chicago. My Moneyline Underdog and the rest of the
04:36week six pick six. Next, live right here on the early line.
04:40It's a football Friday. It's our week six pick six all
04:44around the NFL Sunday slate and beyond. Moneyline Underdog for
04:48Joe Ranieri. The Jags as a slight dog in London. For me,
04:53it's the Colts as a slight underdog in Tennessee. Now, I
04:57might actually feel better about this if Joe Flacco is the
05:00starting quarterback. Anthony Richardson is trending toward
05:03a return and right before he got injured against the Steelers
05:07two Sundays ago, he was playing phenomenal football about to
05:11lead the Colts to their second touchdown drive in as many
05:14offensive possessions to start that game. So, we're hoping for
05:17good out of AR. You also get JT back more than likely.
05:21Jonathan Taylor, the running back for Indianapolis and
05:24frankly, Joe, it comes down to my disdain if you wanna call it
05:28that. I don't think he's a bad guy personally. I just don't
05:30think he's fit to be an NFL starting quarterback. That is
05:34Will Levis. This is the first game for the Titans as the
05:38favorite since 2022. They were not a favorite at all last year
05:43and have been booked as the dog in all five games this season
05:48and they're just one and four. What's very interesting about
05:51this game for Indianapolis, it will be their sixth game this
05:54year if the line holds where all six have been played with a
05:58spread either in the slightly favorite or slightly the dog of
06:01two and a half points to three and a half points for that
06:06spread. I don't think Tennessee should be favored against
06:08anybody. Give me Indianapolis outright. Yeah, I listen. That's
06:13uh I gotta see it before uh I believe it. I think the fact
06:16that they're going uh with Will Levis is is nice but I think we
06:21ultimately understand Ben. It's a good chance. He's gonna shoot
06:25himself in the foot before it's all said and done. Props not
06:28out just yet for Indianapolis passing yards prop for Levis
06:32192 and a half favorite under of the weekend is where and in
06:38what game? Uh I am gonna go Atlanta and Carolina. Uh it was
06:4447 and a half. I think it's down to uh probably 46 and a
06:48half and I agree with the market move. Listen, this is a
06:52terrible spot for Atlanta. Uh this is a team that is now going
06:57to be a road favorite of more than a field goal coming off of
07:01not one, not two but three consecutive home games and no
07:04by anywhere in there. That has been a bad bet historically to
07:10back a team like that. Not to mention they're going to
07:12Carolina and taking on an NFL team that just got beat by more
07:17than three touchdowns. That is usually also not a team that I
07:21wanna be laying that many points against. Yeah. I think
07:24the market overreacted to the 509 passing yards of Kirk
07:29Cousins now apparently Atlanta's the greatest offense
07:31in the world. I'm not buying it. Both defenses love to force
07:36you to milk the clock and go ten, twelve, thirteen uh play
07:40drives in order to be able to score. I think that's exactly
07:44what we're gonna get here. I don't think this is a high
07:46scoring game in any way, shape, or form. I'm on the under. The
07:50Falcons first over of the year 2 weeks ago in their first
07:54divisional game by the way and they went to the over without
07:58scoring a single offensive touchdown against the Saints.
08:01The Falcons have played two straight overs both in NFC
08:04South showdowns. Big weekend in the NFC South as the Bucks also
08:08will visit New Orleans and the Saints starting rookie
08:11quarterback Spencer Rattler. Carolina Joe, what an
08:14intriguing team. An underdog in all twenty-two games since the
08:17start of last year. Just five fifteen and two against the
08:21spread. They're one and four ATS this year as the underdog
08:25in all five. The only cover. The outright win of course and
08:28Andy Dalton's first start this season. They have gone over and
08:33all three starts that Dalton has been under center in
08:37Carolina. I do kind of agree though. Feels like a sleepy
08:40spot. Also, Joe, just wanna mention this. Six and a half
08:43points as you see the number there. In the year of the
08:45underdog. Five and a half point dogs or greater. Now, nineteen
08:50five and one against the spread. Entering week number
08:53six. Last week, there was only two spots on the Sunday slate.
08:57Three in total and the underdogs were two and one
09:00against the spread. New Orleans, the only one not to
09:02cover or in fact, went outright. We've got five games
09:06on Sunday with a five and a half point number or greater
09:10which leads me to my favorite under of the weekend and
09:13another one of those spots. The Patriots, a six and a half
09:16point dog against Houston. The Texans have not been a great
09:19cover team this year despite a four and one start. One three
09:23and one against the spread as the favorite under CJ Stroud.
09:28Four eight one against the number. Don't know if this game
09:32is a blowout for the Texans as many anticipate. I just think
09:35it's a really rough spot for Drake May to make his NFL
09:39starting debut. The Pats have allowed nineteen sacks this
09:43year. Second most through five weeks. Houston, one of ten
09:47teams around the NFL with at least fifteen sacks in the
09:50opening five weeks of the year. Pressuring the quarterback in a
09:54ton. Maybe Drake May over twenty-five and a half rushing
09:57yards is a way to play it. I think the Patriots stay under
10:00their team total of fifteen and a half. Yeah, I mean really
10:04hard not to just blindly play that every week, Ben. Uh you
10:09know, matchups are interesting. I will say this. The one
10:11intriguing thing about that game is that Houston is a
10:15bottom five defense against the rush. Yup. We know they
10:19don't do a lot of things great. You're putting a rookie out
10:22there. You're going to have to run the ball. It'll be
10:24interesting to see what Houston can do to stop it. It's been
10:28their recipe, Joe. In the two games that New England played
10:31competitively this year to start the season from Andre
10:33Stevenson who's had his turnover issues and Antonio
10:36Gibson were phenomenal. They gotta grind the clock out if
10:40they are going to keep this game within the number but also
10:42would it help for the Pat staying under fifteen and a
10:46half points? Alright, Chargers Broncos is the lowest total of
10:50the weekend, Joe at thirty-five and a half but apparently not
10:53low enough for you and your alt line. Oh, hell no. Is that low
10:57enough? Uh absolutely looking at the alt line here. Uh I
11:01think it's listed at thirty-five and a half thirty-six.
11:04I I don't think we get the thirty points in this game
11:07here. Bo Nix is not going to throw against this uh this
11:12Chargers defense. The Chargers get both starting offensive
11:16tackles back for this game. Yup. I do think they're going to
11:19run it down the throat uh and I do think they're going to have
11:22an opportunity to get some points on the board. I just
11:25don't see where the points are coming from Denver. Uh this
11:28feels like a seventeen to three kind of game and that's the way
11:33I'm playing it under thirty and a half. The Chargers off the
11:37by much healthier offensively but the only team that has been
11:41under in every game this year. Only four examples for the
11:44Chargers as compared to five for a lot of other teams but
11:48under by an average margin of nine point nine points per
11:53game. We'll continue to pick six for best bets for the
11:56weekend up next. The NFL Sunday slate week number six and our
12:00pick six continues. Alt line for me as we fly through our
12:05final picks and bets. Buccaneers lay in six and a
12:08half to win by a touchdown at plus 148. I know it's been a
12:13difficult week in Tampa. All of our thoughts, our prayers,
12:16everything that we can share with that community. The
12:19Buccaneers because of Hurricane Milton left early in the week
12:22in unorthodox logistical schedule. They've been
12:25practicing at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans in preparation for
12:29a huge NFC showdown on Sunday but I think they step up to the
12:34spot after comping up an opportunity to win one on the
12:37road Thursday night football a week ago. They've had the mini
12:41bye. They've had time to get healthier on the defensive side
12:44and frankly, I like Spencer Rattler. I think it was the
12:48right decision after Derek Carr suffered the oblique injury to
12:51start Rattler in favor of Jake Hayter. Just think it's going
12:54to be a difficult spot in his first NFL game on Sunday. Give
12:59me the Bucs laying six and a half at plus 148 as my alt
13:03line. Yeah, I can't argue with that either. I listen. I
13:07thought New Orleans was a little overvalued to begin
13:10with. They had some early success in those games to start
13:14Ben and everyone fell in love with him. Still not a good
13:17offensive line. Defense has issues. I'm with you here. I
13:20think it's a great opportunity to back Tampa to get on track
13:24and I understand that even laying three and a half in a
13:27road divisional game when you have been away from home for
13:30longer than expected is insane. I just think it's a bad spot
13:34for the rookie quarterback in Spencer Rattler. Joe, our
13:37yardage prop is the same guy, but in two different
13:41components kind of tied into one. We're both focused on
13:44B. Robinson against Carolina. You like rushing. I like
13:48rushing plus receiving just to add it up a little bit. Break
13:51down B. John on Sunday. Well, I I think listen, I mean B. John
13:56Robinson. It was 68 and a half. I believe the rushing yards,
13:59but he's only cleared this number once, but I love the
14:03fact that they got extra rest and I love the fact that
14:06schematic wise they're going up against a Panthers defense
14:10that loves to funnel the run and I do think that they're not
14:15going to ask you know good old Kirk Cousins to have to drop
14:19back 50 plus times in this game. I don't think they'll
14:22have to. I think there's also a pretty good chance with the
14:25Falcons as a six point favorite. They're going to be running
14:27the ball lot in the fourth quarter here and we know his
14:31breakout potential his explosive potential there. I
14:35mean look what Chase Brown did back in week four against this
14:38defense. I do think this is a short number. I think it's a
14:42great opportunity to back him to get well over this. I think
14:45he gets 100 yards in this game, Ben. I really do. I mean, Joe
14:49you feel bad for Carolina in a way just so many defensive
14:52injuries. One of the bright spots on the defensive line
14:55Derrick Brown out for the year early this season. Shaq Thomas
14:59out for the year that was announced late last week.
15:02They've got a ton of guys questionable who haven't
15:04practiced either on the D line or in the linebacking core and
15:09the Panthers are already the fifth worst total defense in
15:12the National Football League. So I'll go B. John Robinson over
15:1595 and a half rushing plus receiving a number. He was well
15:19over in the opening two games for the Falcons this season at
15:23least 111 scrimmage yards and then for some reason it is kind
15:28of dwindled off. It needs to happen. He's your best
15:32offensive player still. Feed him the football in a favorable
15:35spot on the road to get out of Carolina with a huge divisional
15:40victory and start three and oh in the NFC South. That would be
15:44something for Raheem Morris in his first year once again as
15:47the head coach in the A. Let's combine forces and let's get it
15:52done this time. Our two-leg six-point teaser. You begin and
15:58you're looking beyond Sunday. Take it away. No, it's going to
16:02be absolutely disgusting. I hate myself already Ben for even
16:07thinking about this but the reality is there's no way you
16:11can't bet it. I'm going to take the New York Jets. It's a new
16:17era. Jeff Ulbricht is your interim head coach. He's
16:20already sat Hackett and told him sit in the corner. Nobody's
16:25interested in what you have to say anymore. Downing is your
16:27new OC calling the plays and we have seen this, right? The new
16:32coach you fire Sala who apparently was liked by some in
16:36that locker room but not all. I do think Buffalo is still a
16:40little banged up. It's a great opportunity to back the Jets
16:43getting over a touchdown here. Let's call it what it is. It's a
16:48must-win game even in week six, even on a Monday night for
16:52the New York Jets to turn the entire season around after only
16:56five weeks. It might be the best game of week six and it's
16:59on Monday. Give me the Broncos up to nine. We'll take them
17:02through three through seven, nine-point dog in a game, Joe
17:05that you alluded to has the lowest total and it might not
17:09be low enough. The Broncos four and one against the spread this
17:13year. Have a great weekend everybody. We'll see you on
17:16Monday back on the early line.