NFL Futures: Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Transcript
00:00One of the great things about preseason football you get to see rookies around the National
00:07Football League make their NFL debuts and for a ton of rookies at the quarterback spot
00:15we got a lot of action over this full first weekend of NFL preseason contest that featured
00:21number one overall pick Caleb Williams making his NFL debut on Saturday in Buffalo.
00:27Number two overall pick Jaden Daniels spinning it on Saturday at MetLife.
00:32Drake May saw a possession for New England on Thursday and then some pretty strong sample
00:38sizes out of Michael Pennix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix to round out the weekend.
00:45So it ties us back to the NFL offensive rookie of the year odds, Caleb Williams of Chicago
00:51remains that favorite at plus 150.
00:54Jaden Daniels number two overall pick looking good in his NFL preseason debut now 6-1 Marvin
01:02Harrison Jr. rounds out the top three at plus 850.
01:06Again entering the first week of the preseason Caleb was the short favorite same price plus
01:11140 but both Daniels and Harrison Jr. tied for the second best number at 7-1.
01:17So the market working positively in the manner of Jaden Daniels.
01:22Yeah and again it should be working that way because he is the starter he barring injury
01:26he is going to play all 17 weeks and also he has an unbelievable talent and athletic
01:31ability to get outside of the pocket and run for hundreds of yards on the season.
01:35I think he can approach that 7-8 900 range if he does stay healthy and he's electric
01:41as I think he's going to be.
01:42But obviously Caleb Williams set up he's going to be fine.
01:45I really think he's going to be great in Chicago so it's gonna be hard to upend him.
01:48Therefore I do agree with that plus 140 price.
01:51But if you are looking a little bit farther down the list yet Marvin Harrison Jr. is going
01:54to have a very good season Xavier Worthy obviously playing with maybe the best quarterback of
01:58all time Malik neighbors an unbelievable talent just I don't know if that offense is going
02:02to be able to get him enough of what he needs but when you slide it down and take a look
02:05at Michael Pennix Jr. at 75-1 yeah you say boy that's a great price.
02:09We obviously understand he's not starting here but if you are saying all right I like
02:13let's just say Jaden Daniels been at a 6-1 price wouldn't you still sprinkle a little
02:17flyer on Michael Pennix Jr. because let's just say and nobody's rooting for this but
02:21it's football and it happens and you saw it last year.
02:24Let's just say Kirk Cousins gets injured whether it be a concussion whether it be an Achilles
02:28or a knee and let's just say he's even down not for the season been two to three weeks
02:32Pennix comes in and plays great football.
02:34I don't know if they ever go back to Kirk Cousins at this point.
02:36So that's 75-1 price is interesting if there is an injury.
02:40Now is that going to be your five star best play of the season.
02:43Michael Pennix Jr. to be working there.
02:44No it isn't.
02:45So that price point a couple dollars just might make some sense.
02:49Yeah no I hear your point absolutely and the talent and the offense around whatever quarterback
02:54takes the spot for Atlanta should be enough to pad the stats and obviously the outlook
02:59for the Falcons is favorable entering this year the divisional favorites in the NFC South.
03:04That's all because of Kirk Cousins and if it is injury it's bad news for Atlanta because
03:11you invested in Kirk Cousins as well for year 180 million dollar deal with a hundred
03:18mil guaranteed if Michael Pennix Jr. is in the offensive rookie of the year running.
03:24I think that's a bad sign for the Falcons because let's even say DRS.
03:29It's an injury.
03:30It's unforeseen.
03:31It is something that nobody would hope for in the ATL but Pennix does come in and look
03:35the port of the rookie of the year.
03:37Do you go back to Kirk Cousins in twenty twenty five.
03:41Do you just try to get rid of the deal with so much invested.
03:45It's why the pick has never made sense to me to have Michael Pennix Jr. there despite
03:49him getting a ton of runs throughout the preseason.
03:52You're right about it.
03:53Nobody agree with it.
03:54They can say all they want like we probably won't ever be up and if we expect Kirk Cousins
03:57to be a quarterback I understand why you're trying to play the long game here because
04:00if you just take a look at the Green Bay Packers it has worked in specific instances.
04:04But if you were being honest like Kirk Cousins I'm coming to town where we drafted in the
04:08top 10.
04:09Oh man.
04:10Imagine the weapon you can get me another dominant offensive line a crazy tight end
04:13to go with my already crazy tight end another great wide receiver to go with Drake London
04:17who we expect to be great as a young guy or heck even an unbelievable quarterback that's
04:22going to be able to shut down the other team but instead you've got a quarterback that's
04:25not expected to be on the field for the next couple of years as a top 10 draft pick.
04:29I don't care how the quarterback works out in four to five years.
04:31You got Kirk Cousins on your team for what then to win five or six games.
04:35No.
04:36You actually think you can win the division and make deep runs in the playoff and another
04:39top 10 pick with Kirk Cousins would have really helped.
04:42The only problem is that top 10 pick was a quarterback who you're hoping doesn't see
04:46the field because you're right about this.
04:47You heard about all the instances right.
04:49Oh it's a great problem to have because if Penix doesn't play it means Kirk Cousins was
04:52great.
04:53No you expected Cousins to be great you idiots down there.
04:55So get him another playmaker.
04:57But I digress on that point.
04:58I think Penix is an interesting option.
05:00But again it seems to be cut and dry.
05:02Caleb and Jaden they're not coming out of the games this year unless they're injured
05:06and they should be putting up good numbers.
05:08They deserve to be those top flight guys.
05:11And even when that is the case when a rookie quarterback take it in the first round the
05:15top 10 the top five first overall they are not often this short of a favorite to win
05:21NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year unlike many other football awards either college football
05:26or in the National Football League where a quarterback can qualify to win the hardware.
05:31It is one of the few awards that doesn't automatically go to a QB.
05:35Only four of the last 10 winners of Offensive Rookie of the Year in the NFL have played
05:40the quarterback spot.
05:42Why?
05:43Because when you are a quarterback drafted early it often means you are going to an organization
05:48that hasn't won a ton of football games at least as recently as the year prior.
05:54But it's very different for Caleb Williams as Chicago is expected to be a winning football
05:59team and contend for a playoff spot.
06:02That is why the price is so low on Caleb Williams for the last 10 only a quarterback but three
06:08of the last five including CJ Stroud a year ago in 2023.
06:13If not the two top quarterbacks Donnie who gets your look in the Offensive Rookie of
06:17the Year odds?
06:18I mean it's pretty simple for me because I do think Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of those
06:22guys you can just drop in and he can have a dominant season and also the advent of
06:25some of these wide receivers coming into the NFL right off the bat where let's just go
06:2920 years back first round wide receivers always said well they don't run a pro style offense
06:33going to take them some time to learn the system now they just drop for it and can play
06:36football.
06:37Also you do have a veteran quarterback that can get you the football and also in a division
06:42where we think you might be losing more football games than winning which means extra chances
06:46in the fourth quarter.
06:47I know it's easy to say well look the first two quarterbacks are Williams and Daniels
06:50Donnie's going right to Marvin Harrison Jr.
06:52No I honestly believe he's the most dominant player in this draft and as long as he stays
06:56healthy he's going to get ample opportunities to show his dominance.
07:00Yeah absolutely so and again I think the quarterback throwing MHJ the football in Kyler Murray
07:05is a lot better than Daniel Jones doing so in New York.
07:09By the way Malik Nabors leaving practice yesterday a little bit early with what the team is calling
07:14a minor ankle injury not the best news you could ever hope for out of training camp.