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00:00All right, Joe, let's get ready for Sunday, though, around the
00:07National Football League as we do our pick six. A reminder, if
00:10you've not been with us just yet on a football Friday, here
00:14are the components of a pick six. Our favorite anytime
00:17touchdown prop. Our favorite Moneyline underdog to win
00:20outright. Our favorite under of the weekend. It could be a team
00:23total or a game total. All lines that we will look at as
00:28well. Yardage props for the weekend could be passing,
00:32receiving, rushing, does not matter. And we combine forces
00:35for a two leg six point teaser. All right, Rene, start with your
00:40favorite anytime TD score of this weekend slate.
00:45All right, so we're gonna start, I think, keeping it pretty
00:48simple, right? I am going to go for an anytime touchdown to the
00:52game in which I think is going to see the most points. And
00:55that's going to be Arizona hosting Detroit. I'm going to
00:58go with Jameer Gibbs is an anytime touchdown. Listen, you
01:01can be sold all you want against the Rams with this with this
01:05Arizona defense. I'm not. I do think in fact that the run
01:10defense is going to be weak. I think Gibbs who is going to get
01:14the bulk of the carries for Detroit this game. I think he's
01:17going to have a huge opportunity to have a big and I mean big
01:21game here against this rushing defense of Arizona. Give me
01:24Gibbs for an anytime touchdown and yardage props and everything
01:28else that you want to talk about.
01:30Joe, I am right there with you in that game. 51 and a half is
01:34the number between the Lions and the Cardinals in Glendale on
01:37Sunday. It is the highest total of the entirety of the week
01:40three slate. I think we will see some points. I think we will
01:43see a very competitive football game. I think it's going to be
01:46really, really good between the Lions and the card. So I'll go
01:49to the other side. James Connor, anytime TD at minus 115. He has
01:54scored in both games this year. And again, 51 and a half is the
01:57highest total of the weekend. I think James Connor is a factor.
02:01Now the fun part. Moneyline underdogs with some plus money
02:05who wins outright on Sunday.
02:08Yeah, I I'm going to go we talked about this game a little
02:11bit earlier, but I'm going to go to the one game in which I trust
02:16clearly one side over the other and that's going to be the
02:20Chicago Bears. Small dog in this spot here, but they did
02:24open up as a two two and a half point underdog in here. The
02:27money has continued to roll in throughout the week on them. And
02:30I told you this comes down to the defense of Indy Indianapolis
02:35not being able to stop the run for anybody. We're talking about
02:39a Chicago Bears team that is going to want to run the ball
02:42and Anthony Richardson has got a recipe for a disaster against
02:47this Chicago defense, the way he has no idea where the ball is
02:51going. I like Chicago in a big way here to pull the upset on
02:56the road against Indy.
02:58Third career start for Caleb Williams, the de facto rookie
03:01season for Anthony Richardson. Neither guy has been very good
03:06this year. Caleb 56.1% completion percentage. It's
03:10bottom six out of the 32 qualified starting quarterbacks
03:13through two weeks. Anthony Richardson is the only guy with
03:15less than 50% as his number in terms of completion percentage.
03:20If there was a fear for AR, it wasn't the talent or
03:24athleticism out of Florida. It was his lack of experience and
03:28his inability to be accurate. Even in college, 53.8% during
03:34his only season as a starter at Florida back in 2022. You might
03:40think I'm crazy and maybe I am. Moneyline underdog, the
03:44Carolina Panthers in Las Vegas on Sunday. It just feels like
03:49the game that Andy Dalton wins. In the one start that Dalton
03:54made last year on the road in the Northwest against the
03:57Seahawks, he threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns. In the 18
04:02games that Bryce Young has started in his NFL career, he
04:05has thrown for more than 250 once. Andy Dalton did it in his
04:09only game that he has started in the last year plus and Carolina
04:13made that a single score game Joe 2220 early in the fourth
04:17quarter before the Seahawks did prevail. It was 3727 though
04:21Seattle did cover but it was the best offensive output we have
04:24seen out of the Panthers since the beginning of 2023. And oh,
04:28Andy Dalton does have that experience. He's actually a
04:31perfect 4-0 against this Raiders organization in his lengthy NFL
04:36career. Give me the red rocket. Leading the Panthers to just
04:39their third win in the last 20 games since the beginning of
04:432023.
04:45Yeah, and if you were paying attention earlier in the week,
04:48you there were a lot of very big numbers available six and a
04:52half were out there. Even still after the announcement was made.
04:57So it pays to shop around and to jump on situations like that
05:01band fluid situations when you can so I can't wait to watch
05:06that game as disgusting as it sounds.
05:09Yeah, it's going to be a fascinating watch, albeit a
05:12disgusting one to say the least. And all the credit to
05:15Antonio Pierce and Las Vegas, by the way, they're two and one
05:19against the number they want outright as an underdog. A week
05:23ago, under Antonio Pierce as the interim head coach now the
05:27permanent head coach, just think it's a spot for Carolina and not
05:30sure the Raiders should be laying five and a half even
05:33against the team like the Panthers just here. Yet your
05:36favorite under of the weekend is in which game or dairy.
05:40I'm going to the Rams and 49ers. Look at the injury list here,
05:46folks. This is just you can put together an all star fantasy
05:49lineup with all the guys that are not playing in this game
05:52here. Mix in the fact that the the Rams offensive line,
05:56although they do get some back here. I don't see how either
06:00McVeigh or Shanahan are going to think dropping their quarterbacks
06:04back in the pocket 4050 times as a recipe for success. I don't
06:08see how this thing gets over 43 and a half points, man.
06:12Yeah, it went over last week in Arizona, Joe for the Rams, but
06:16they scored 10 points. Arizona scored 41. I don't really know
06:21how this game plays out. There are so many injuries, not just
06:25for LA, but for San Francisco. As you mentioned, I'm starting
06:29to think that game could be a little bit ugly and low scoring
06:32inside. So five stadium on Sunday, we continue to pick six
06:36up next on TV. So earlier in the show, as we looked at the
06:40entirety of the week three Sunday slate around the NFL, my
06:43co host today, Joe Ranieri said that he liked the over and
06:47seeing some points in Tampa between the Buccaneers and the
06:51Broncos. Joe, if that is the case, I hope it's Tampa scoring
06:5440 and the Broncos scoring seven or at least less than 16 and a
07:00half because my team total and my favorite under of the weekend
07:04is Denver under 16 and a hook. They scored only six points last
07:09week against Pittsburgh. So they scored 20 in the opener against
07:13Seattle, but Bonet still turned the football over two times in
07:17that football game. And the Bucs have been wildly impressive
07:20this year. Also because of the defense one for seven. That was
07:23the Lions last week, but do not break in the red zone, only
07:27allowing 16 points to Detroit in a game that featured a pregame
07:30total north of 50 that stayed well under in Washington with
07:35Jaden Daniels against some backups did score on their final
07:38offensive possession as that game was wasting away. They did
07:42score 20 points, but really, it was 13 points for the commanders
07:46early on buying into this Buccaneers defense. I am not
07:50buying into this Broncos offense until proven otherwise until
07:54proven that Bo Nix is not going to throw the football to the
07:56other team multiple times in a single game. Broncos team total
08:01under 16 and a half. So let's say it's 2814. Joe Tampa wins
08:06comfortably. We go over 40 and a hook for the game, huh?
08:10That's exactly what I've got. I don't need them to get 17 points
08:14there been to get this thing up and over because I do think the
08:18Buccaneers will have a good day offensively and we'll be able to
08:22move the football rather easily.
08:25Let's go alternate lines. Now a different way of approaching the
08:29Sunday slate and some of our favorite matchups. Joe, which
08:31team catches your attention?
08:34Yeah, I'm gonna go where this is another if it ain't broke, man,
08:38let's not fix it. Somebody tell me how in the world that the
08:42Saints aren't going to continue to put up points in bunches
08:47against that defense now of Philadelphia on a short week
08:51or bend that have to try to figure out where things went
08:54wrong. The Saints to me, I've got at least 28 or more points
08:59in this game coming. I have it. I do think this could also be
09:03one of the more higher scoring games, especially early. But
09:07yeah, I would love to grab as many old line New Orleans team
09:12totals over and correlate the props in that game on the New
09:16Orleans side because I do not trust Philadelphia's defense on
09:20the road to do anything to come up with answers to stop this
09:23team. They can't get to Derek Carr. He's going to pick them
09:27apart.
09:28Let's stay right there. Then Derek Carr is my alternate line
09:32250 passing yards or more at plus 140. His prop is 232 and a
09:38half a number that both of the QBs Philly has faced this year
09:42have gone over Kirk Cousins 241. I'll be at 70 on the final
09:46offensive drive that led to the comeback for the Falcons. Jordan
09:49Love had 260 in week number one out in Sao Paulo. But
09:54Philadelphia Joe was the third worst passing defense in the
09:57NFL a season ago, allowing 256 yards per game. They're giving
10:02up 241 on average this year and that incorporates some sacks in
10:09there as well. But Philly has not pressured the quarterback
10:11much. The Saints we thought there was some concern with the
10:14offensive line. Not here yet this season and the Eagles have
10:18only recorded three sacks in 2022. Philly was one of the best
10:22passing defenses in the national football league because the team
10:25had 70 sacks. They have four guys with 11 sacks. In that
10:29year, they made it to the Super Bowl. The Eagles had the second
10:32most sacks in a single season in NFL history only behind the
10:35monsters of the Midway Bears back in the mid 80s who had 72.
10:40It's been different. And it's still taking some time for Vic
10:42Fangio to figure this out. Now as you look at Derek Carr,
10:47443 total yards this year. But on only 39 attempts, Joe, that's
10:5311.4 yards per attempt. Why do I highlight that? If this game is
10:58competitive, and we expect it to be, it's less than a field goal
11:02spread, albeit in favor of New Orleans. If they finally are
11:06tested and it's not a 47 whatever route of Carolina or
11:1044-19 to Dallas when they scored on their first six offensive
11:14drives. If Derek Carr is throwing the football for all
11:17four quarters for all 60 minutes, I think he gets the 250
11:21plus on Sunday in the big easy.
11:24Yeah, I'm with you, man. I think this is going to be a fun
11:27one. I got faith in the offense of Philadelphia. But I think
11:33they're going to have to go toe to toe and match score for score.
11:35So it to me, New Orleans got a lot of opportunities to cash
11:39tickets in the prop market all line as well as team totals and
11:44maybe even total score.
11:46Joe, there's a lot of statements that can be made on Sunday. If
11:50New Orleans wins and covers over Philadelphia, the Saints are a
11:54legitimate NFC contender, at least the odds will show that
11:57in the Eagles might have a few weaknesses, they still have to
12:01address that is also the case for sure. In Dallas, the line is
12:06only a point and a half in favor of the flock. But now it's just
12:08four cents of difference between the Ravens and the Cowboys
12:12Baltimore minus 110 Moneyline, Dallas minus 106. The Ravens
12:16trying to avoid a dreadful Oh, and three start that more than
12:20likely would have Baltimore missed the postseason. If the
12:23Cowboys can't do that, though, and Baltimore picks up its first
12:27win, we're going to have two one and two teams at the end of
12:30week three. So how are you approaching this game from the
12:33prop perspective?
12:35I to me, it's all about Lamar Jackson and the rushing prop
12:39here. Yeah, 48 and a half yards. He is going to have to get at
12:44least that then if they're going to have any chance of getting
12:48this done. I don't like that the Henry fit here that Derek Henry
12:51fit. It doesn't make any sense. They're always out of the
12:54shotgun. That's where Lamar is his most comfortable Derek
12:57Henry's a guy where you need a quarterback under the center.
13:00None of it made any sense to me. But I can tell you this, if
13:04Lamar ain't taken off scripted and unscripted, they don't win
13:08this game. I think he's going to have to I think you can get
13:11it done. Maybe three, four runs, man, and you're flying over that
13:14total.
13:16And this number on the way up, it's 53 and a half as of this
13:20football Friday morning Lamar 45 yards last week in a loss to the
13:25Raiders, of course, 16 carries for a buck 22 in the season
13:29opener in Arrowhead against the Chiefs. Part of that is because
13:34the offensive line still needs some time to gel. Obviously, a
13:37lot of it is how it is organized. And Joe, I think with
13:41how important already this week three game is for the Ravens.
13:45Lamar, who has already been tasked with doing everything is
13:49going to feel like he has to do everything to make sure the
13:52Ravens avoid the win list. Oh, and three star will continue to
13:56pick six on the other side of the break. You're on sports. So
13:59in your pick six journary, you're looking at a rushing
14:02yards prop for Sunday, a quarterback Lamar Jackson to go
14:06over 48 and a half. I'm also looking at a rushing yards prop
14:10on Sunday in a game that you detail where the under might be
14:14the focus. It might not be the explosive offensive game we
14:17might have expected earlier in the season, where running the
14:21football might be the way things get done. Jordan Mason for San
14:25Francisco over 91 and a half rushing yards against the Rams
14:29on Sunday, Sam Fran a six and a half point road favorite for the
14:33Rams home debut and so far, but there are so many injuries for
14:37the Rams. I don't even know where to begin. But Puka Nakua
14:40Cooper Cup, at least he's not on the I are numerous injuries on
14:44the offensive line and defensively for La for San
14:48Francisco, though, Chris McCaffrey on the IR demo Samuel
14:52set to miss this one with a calf injury. George Kittle not at
14:55practice yesterday. Now dealing with an injury as well. Jordan
14:59Mason has been the constant at least 100 yards on the ground in
15:04both over that number of 91 and a half 147 week number one
15:08against the New York Jets who are better against the run than
15:12the Rams third worst rushing defense so far Joe allowing 197
15:17yards per game the Lions had their way to Cardinals last week
15:21had their way with so many injuries offensively for the
15:2449ers. They trust in Jordan Mason over 91 and a half rushing
15:28yards.
15:30Yeah, it's they're gonna have to have that again, but two of the
15:34better offensive minded head coaches are going to struggle to
15:37draw plays and score some points in this one, Ben.
15:40Yep, yep, they are Kyle Shanahan, by the way, 10 and five
15:43straight up against Sean McVeigh, including the post
15:46season as those friends will duke it out on Sunday in Los
15:50Angeles. Now we finish with a combined 6.2 leg teaser Joe
15:55both weeks. I have let us down I had the Bengals minus one and a
15:59half against the Patriots. They lost outright I took the
16:02Cowboys down to a pick last week at home against the Saints. They
16:06lost outright I need to come through. So let me start here.
16:11Chargers up through two key numbers. They're a point and a
16:13half dog in Pittsburgh against the Steelers on Sunday. We'll go
16:18through three we'll go through seven, the Chargers getting
16:21seven and a half in a game that features the lowest total the
16:24weekend 35 and a hook I do think LA has a good chance of winning
16:28outright in this football game where it is, but I'll tease them
16:30up to seven and a half.
16:33Yeah, I don't mind that Ben, I'm gonna go on Monday night, and I
16:38am going to take as many teasers as I can with the Cincinnati
16:41Bengals down to one and a half get them under a field goal. I
16:45just need them to win the game. I can promise you that Joe
16:49Burrow and company here will win their third game of the season
16:53like they have done been pretty much every year since starting
16:57Oh, and to this is where they come. Keep in mind the
17:00Washington defense forced the Giants into just two punts last
17:04week two punts. They allowed 37 points to the box in week one. I
17:10can tell you Burrow and company T Higgins is moving towards
17:14playing they're saying, yeah, give me give me Cincinnati in a
17:18blowout fashion. I'll move them down to minus one and a half.
17:21And of course, they did put up a lot of points last week in
17:25Kansas City in a game that was slightly spoiled due to the
17:28fact of a pass interference call on Dajon Anthony Joe. In fact,
17:33in each of the past two years when they have started Oh, and
17:36two, they have won four of their next five games. And in fact,
17:40they have one week three every single season. So that's a good
17:46note for Cincinnati. We shared it earlier in the show. Since
17:51the postseason expanded in the National Football League to
17:54seven teams making it per conference for division winners
17:57and the additional wildcard team only twice out of the 32 teams
18:02that have started Oh, and two, and now the four plus years have
18:06we seen or in the previous four, I should say, have we seen a
18:09team make the playoffs the Bengals in 2022, the Texans a
18:13season ago, we have only seen one team though, in this
18:17millennium, since 2000, start Oh, and three and get to the
18:21postseason. It was the 2018 Texans, which means Monday night
18:26for the Bengals. desperately important, which means Sunday
18:30for the Ravens. desperately important. In Dallas, Ranieri
18:36great stuff is always my friend on this football Friday, we will
18:38talk tomorrow on college football in game live. Wait,
18:44looking so forward to it a lot of this is what it's all about.
18:47We got conference games. Now we've got do or die for the
18:51NFL. And we got postseason baseball, Ben doesn't get any
18:54better.
18:55Ranieri our noon slate tomorrow, though, noon Eastern
18:58time, the early window of college football. A little bit
19:02of a heck luster at 330, though, and into the primetime hours, it
19:06definitely definitely picks up Ranieri. Have a great weekend.
19:10We'll talk tomorrow. Everybody out there. Have a great weekend.
19:13The early line returns on Monday, 8am Eastern Time here on
19:17SportsCenter.
19:21Transcribed by https://otter.ai