Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00So of course as we enjoy doing at the end of week number one are swift
00:05reactions. Overreactions perhaps but it's a fun time of year in the National
00:11Football League. Renneri as we look back on Monday night football in Santa Clara
00:15the San Francisco 49ers even without the best offensive player in football
00:20Christian McCaffrey still looking darn good on both sides of that equation.
00:26Jordan Mason has a career night in his very first career start 28 carries a
00:31hundred and forty seven yards and a rushing score. Brock Purdy did not throw
00:35a touchdown but still looked very efficient. San Francisco put up 32 points
00:40one by two touchdowns and covered as a three and a half point home favorite
00:45with making six field goals and not being able to pay off a couple of
00:50scoring drives. By the way Jake Moody now in his second year a perfect six for six
00:55including a 53 yarder as his longest that is why you draft a kicker in the
01:00third round or at least if you do he better make good on that price. So let's
01:06start with San Francisco a team that entered this year a short favorite to
01:10win the NFC. A team that has played in the NFC championship game three
01:15consecutive seasons four of the past five NFL years and we expect them to be
01:20right back atop the NFC once again and frankly Joe last night did not do
01:26anything to alter that vision for San Francisco this season. Absolutely nothing
01:32in fact I mean they there's a ton of turnover on that defensive side of the
01:37ball and you weren't quite sure what you were gonna get from them and the Jets
01:42being a you know at least had been a very good rushing team with Brees Hall
01:48and company in the back you were you were wondering all right well let's see
01:51what this new look defense of the 49ers is gonna have here we know offensively
01:55you're gonna get exactly what we got for them but the questions were defensively
02:00they struggled against really good running teams last year but I wasn't a
02:04problem in week one here Ben they seem to have been you know kind of like I
02:10would say week four week three or four kind of conditioning where the Jets look
02:16like they are coming out of training camp to be completely honest with you
02:20there were a lot of questions about the 49ers last night Brendan are you gonna
02:25snap count what would Trent Williams look like as a left tackle having signed
02:29his extension late last week Iuke wasn't great two grabs for 28 yards but Trent
02:36Williams was out there the entirety of the game had to go back to the locker
02:40room a few times and get an IV to stay hydrated and in shape but really no
02:45concern for San Francisco one of the underrated storylines of yesterday that
02:50hand up I did not even realize Leonard Floyd now on the defensive line for San
02:55Francisco who last year played against Aaron Rodgers in the Jets in the Monday
02:59night opener in Buffalo it was the guy to sack Aaron Rodgers that led to the
03:04injury and the torn Achilles was the only guy to record a sack last night for
03:09the 49ers that was part of what you mentioned Joe for gangrene an offensive
03:14line that has caused some worry in New York was actually pretty solid in
03:19protecting Aaron Rodgers last evening on a Monday night so we expected San
03:24Francisco to be good breaking news the San Francisco 49ers are still very good
03:30they had the second best price to win Super Bowl 59 we'll look at where the
03:34odds are after week one in the shortest price to win the NFC crowd at plus 230
03:39it is half the price of everybody else the Eagles the Lions and so forth in the
03:45NFC but of course Joe our main reaction to Monday Night Football was going to be
03:50the New York Jets so much expectation hope and optimism the last two off
03:54seasons it came to a quick conclusion last year with Aaron Rodgers being
03:59injured four plays into the year but that same optimism followed this New
04:03York Jets franchise in the 2024 offseason so after the first game of
04:082024 where are your expectations now for New York well again I think a lot of
04:15this is is what happens to Hassan Redick can they come to an agreement get him on
04:20that defensive side you know when you're playing against a team that runs 70
04:25offensive plays and you only run 49 it's gonna be very hard to get a 40 some odd
04:31year old quarterback in rhythm Ben when he's not on the field nearly enough
04:35because the defense can't get off so I do I do think it's going to be a work
04:39in progress and don't we always say forget about what you see in September
04:44just forget about it let's see what we get come October and that's I'm gonna
04:49hold off judgment on the Jets until Hassan Redick situation gets covered and
04:54until we see Aaron Rodgers and a few more starts I think the Jets front seven
05:00on the defensive side of the football more concerning than anything we saw in
05:04the 40 year old quarterback and Aaron Rodgers you see nine and a half for the
05:08win total the over still has the heavy juice at minus 142 well talk playoff
05:13price on the other side of the break because that is the first focus for
05:17gangrene this year that's next on the earth what did we see on Monday night
05:21football to end out week number one and what does it already mean for the next
05:2617 weeks of this National Football League season we start with Aaron Rodgers
05:31and the New York Jets Joe you see a minus 184 make playoff price for gangrene
05:37the Jets have the longest postseason drought in the National Football League
05:4113 straight seasons but they are still heavily favored to make the NFL
05:47postseason we'll hear from the public a little bit later on in this show but I
05:52just wanted to make this point still expected to be a playoff team and I
05:57still think the New York Jets will get there beyond that who knows we'll see
06:02how much it is worth for Aaron Rodgers to be out there at the age of 40 but I
06:08still think even after last night losing by multiple scores not keeping it close
06:13like the odds makers expected with just a three and a half point spread the New
06:18York Jets are destined to be a playoff team in the AFC this year yeah and I
06:24think it's setting up Ben well for them because the the Jets if they have
06:30Super Bowl aspirations playoff aspirations while they just played a
06:34Super Bowl caliber team and they saw exactly where they stood so and a lot of
06:40the quotes coming out of the locker room after that game last night were just
06:43that that we are nowhere near where we need to be the 49ers are a championship
06:49quality team so the good news is the schedule lines up well still for the
06:54Jets you lose it to an NFC team who cares in game one except it's a wake-up
06:59call which is fantastic now you got to play Tennessee then you're gonna play New
07:04England so you have a couple of weeks here in the month of September to get
07:09yourself right figure some things out and get ready to really start the push
07:14in October so it doesn't shock me that the line isn't gonna move that much from
07:18where it was after this loss I do think it's setting up pretty well though for
07:23the New York Jets I think they needed that wake-up call last night and they
07:27got it in a big way listen still the fourth easiest schedule based on
07:31projected win totals in the NFL and Joe one thing that Donnie and I were breaking
07:35down yesterday that I will find incredibly interesting to follow
07:39throughout this year the Jets without Aaron Rodgers in large part booked as an
07:43underdog 14 of 17 games in 2023 they were six and eight against the spread
07:49five of those six covers an outright victory of course an underdog in week
07:54number 101 against the number but how many more times this season if Aaron
07:59Rodgers remains healthy will New York be booked as a dog entering a game the
08:04Jets home opener is not until week three so this upcoming week in Nashville
08:09against the Titans the New York Jets are still a four and a half point road
08:14favorite that's where I think the Jets will be from the oddsmakers perspective
08:19throughout a good majority of this 2024 campaign the Jets did enter week number
08:24one as the slight AFC East divisional favorites a couple of weird things
08:28happening in that division the Dolphins and the Bills now co-favorites at plus
08:32180 the Jets back by only a dime at plus 190 the Jets though have a better price
08:39to win the AFC championship than that of Miami by two and a half dollars but are
08:44behind Buffalo the Bills have the fourth best number at seven to one all
08:48to say a lot of reshuffling in the odds after week one and it's been really
08:54interesting Joe to look at the Super Bowl odds throughout this offseason the
08:58Chiefs have won two consecutive Lombardi trophies looking to make NFL history
09:02being the first team to ever win three straight Super Bowls but when the
09:06offseason odds opened up it was San Francisco about a half dollar in front
09:11of Kansas City then they were co-favorites and then entering the
09:14season the Chiefs had a better price and then entering the Monday night finale of
09:18week number one co-favorites were the 49ers and Chiefs once again at a six to
09:24one number San Francisco dominant in week number one the Chiefs winning of
09:30course as well and now Kansas City is in front at a five to one price in San
09:35Fran at plus 550 but you can see there is that clear tier of two it's Kansas
09:41City and San Francisco in front of the pack by five and a half bucks and and I
09:47do think that that list right there is going to be that we're not gonna have to
09:52change a lot of names on that list at least through the first month of the
09:56season I mean those teams at those prices will move a little bit as the
10:01weeks progress here but you know those what seven teams on that list there Ben
10:05that those seven teams and let's say three weeks just the odds are gonna be a
10:10little bit different and maybe in a different order but that's your seven
10:14there I don't see anybody creeping in over the first month taking any of those
10:18names out of there and keep in mind the Bengals have never ever played the month
10:23of September well but yet there they are at the bottom and still realistic with
10:28those odds yeah listen the Cincinnati Bengals since playing in Super Bowl 56
10:34in Los Angeles have started the next three seasons losing their opener now
10:39all three years and they have been a touchdown favorite at bare minimum which
10:45means that the Bengals who also then started all three of those years
10:48following that appearance in a Super Bowl lost week number two in started
10:54over winless oh and two and that would seem to be the case at least based on
11:00the odds for the more key matchup Sunday afternoon in Arrowhead the
11:04Chiefs and the Bengals the rivalry renewed with Kansas City booked as a
11:09five-and-a-half point home favorite so Joe as we go elsewhere around not only
11:15just the AFC but the Super Bowl odds as well the Ravens moved back ever so
11:20slightly losing by a touchdown in KC but I do want to focus on the NFC because
11:27you see only two other teams on this list of seven for the changing market
11:32after week number one San Francisco a dominant performance and we expect to be
11:37that top team in the NFC once again they are half the price of Philadelphia plus
11:43234 the 49ers to win the NFC title Philly is plus 470 they got a win week
11:48number one in a marquee primetime spot it's Friday night over Green Bay Detroit
11:54got a win week number one in overtime against the Rams and that marquee
11:58primetime spot the Lions now plus 550 how far in front Joe if at all in your
12:03estimation are the 49ers from the rest of the crowd in the NFC well I mean
12:09judging just by week one that those two teams there that just faced each other
12:14in the big game then are on track to do it again all things being equal now a
12:20lock it out between now and then but I do think after this weekend we can look
12:24at it and go you know listen to Chiefs pit you know beat a pretty good Ravens
12:29team and while the Jets aren't exactly there yet we had a lot of questions
12:34about this 49ers team with all the distractions and without McCaffrey and
12:39everything else and they still steamrolled so I do think those two are
12:43just heads and tails above everyone else right now and so let's look at the Super
12:49Bowl 59 odds as a full picture right now the ten best prices to win that
12:55Lombardi trophy the Bengals fall off a twenty to one number the Lions and the
13:00Eagles round out the top four alongside the 49ers with the Chiefs the team out
13:06of the AFC having the shortest number the Ravens Texans Cowboys Bills also
13:13included in the top ten Joe of those teams that are outside the top five but
13:18in the top ten Texans Cowboys and Bills three teams that we always expect at
13:23least with Houston taking that mantle right now with the expectations in 2024
13:28are you buying in on any of those numbers after week one or maybe you were
13:33buying in before the season got started no again I think the overreaction for
13:41the Cowboys is going to be laughable here the Bengals are always intriguing
13:45because they were without a doubt the worst loss on the board in week one but
13:51we've been here and we've done this before and we've seen this with this
13:56team so the Bengals would be the only one that I'd be interested in looking at
14:01moving forward because I think as they win games that number decreases in a big
14:06way once chases on the field with borrow so Bengals started Owen to in 2022 they
14:13went on to win I think their next six games they figured finish the regular
14:17season 13 and 3 of course not playing one complete game because of the Damar
14:22Hamlin incident that happened in Buffalo on a Monday night but then even last
14:28year Joe after the Owen to start since he rattled off four wins in their next
14:32five games and then they lost one and then Joe Burrow was sidelined for the
14:36rest of the season let's see more up next on the early the odds update after
14:42week number one is now completed in full around the National Football League
14:47that includes the rookie quarterbacks we saw on display three of the six that
14:52were drafted in the first 12 selections of 2024 started week number one for
14:58their organizations that included the number one overall pick Kayla Williams
15:02number two overall pick Jaden Daniels and of course the 12th overall selection
15:07Bo Nix I don't think Granary you would say it was a stellar debut for any of
15:12these three quarterbacks in any of their spots the only thing that was different
15:17among the three Caleb's team Chicago got a win not because of the offense that
15:23did not register a point outside of a converted two-point conversion but
15:28because of the defense and the special teams coming all the way back to knock
15:32off the Tennessee Titans in week number one in that second half Joe what was
15:38your evaluation of the three rookie quarterbacks that started week one on
15:42Sunday well you know Caleb Williams was interesting because I think that's the
15:47first time in oh what 20 years that a number one draft pick as a quarterback
15:52ended up winning their first game and ironically enough it had absolutely
15:57nothing to do with Caleb Williams he had absolutely no hand in winning that game
16:02at all it was the defense and special teams that ended up getting it done for
16:07the for the Bears I thought Jaden Daniels was poised in a tough spot
16:13there on the road against a Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay team that was
16:19obviously gonna put up some points I thought he did pretty good with the legs
16:23in the arm and Bo Nix with the 12th man not an easy place to start your career
16:28there I thought he I thought he handled it pretty well a couple of bad
16:32interceptions but you got to expect that with a rookie I mean all in all for the
16:37first game on all three guys it wasn't terrible but your number one draft pick
16:41there was the worst of all three of those guys so when you look at where
16:46these guys were and the statistical output in their career debuts in the
16:50National Football League Caleb looked a little bit spooked he looked a little
16:54bit shaky which as we heard in hard knocks he admitted himself he never gets
16:59nervous you would not be able to tell from the performance in week number one
17:03making decisions throwing the football as a rookie might in their very first
17:09NFL game Bo Nix also kind of doing that his second interception less than six
17:15minutes remaining in the fourth quarter led to Adam Archuleta who was on the
17:20call for CBS going oh no before the ball was even intercepted by the Seattle
17:25secondary Jaden Daniels did not make a ton of questionable decisions it wasn't
17:31an overwhelming prolific day through the air he did have 88 yards utilizing the
17:35athleticism and two rushing scores but not many of the decisions that left you
17:40being like what is that I don't know if this guy's ready to write that kind of
17:44thing so there is at least a little bit of confidence in Jaden Daniels I
17:48honestly think there's a little bit of confidence in all three of these guys we
17:53did see a little bit of change in the offensive rookie of the year market as
17:57well my favorite movement it's not Caleb Williams moving back or Jaden Daniels
18:02having more than a dollar shaved off that price or anything with Bo Nix it's
18:06the fact that Michael Pennix Jr. dropped by $20 75 to 1 early in the preseason now
18:1455-1 maybe that's not all week one movement because Kirk Cousins was so
18:20terrible for Atlanta the odds makers now expect or the betting public that
18:24Pennix Jr. will get a couple of shots this year I just kind of laugh at that
18:28price dropping by 20 bucks when we do not expect to see Michael Pennix Jr. at
18:33all and if we do and not just because of a Kirk Cousins injury it's a really bad
18:38thing in the ATL yeah let me and let me just point out while the market is
18:44overreacting to everything keep in mind that Caleb Williams Jaden Daniels and
18:48Bo Nix combined for just as many touchdowns in week one is Drake May
18:54Michael Pennix Jr. and JJ McCarthy through so the answer is zero people
18:59we've got absolutely no passing touchdowns for many of them so let's not
19:04overreact and run to the window and spend money on what may be the reality
19:09is not one of those guys on a list has a passing touchdown yet in the NFL yeah it
19:14is very true and another guy that was not a quarterback expected a content
19:18for this award Marvin Harrison jr. pretty much the same price of plus 750
19:23but the fourth overall pick we thought would come into the NFL right away and
19:28groove with Kyler Murray the card scored 28 points in Western New York against
19:33Buffalo on Sunday afternoon but Marvin Harrison jr. just one grabber dairy for
19:39four yards his price still third best at plus 750 how about a couple of other
19:44rookie wideouts Xavier worthy three touches two touchdowns for Kansas City a
19:50lot to like in that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid offense Malik neighbors man I
19:56feel for you you got Daniel Jones throw you the football not sure that price of
20:0015 to 1 is gonna get shorter anytime soon no it's not and I'll tell you I
20:05just keep an eye on another name on that list Ben because I thought Thomas jr. in
20:09Jacksonville this kid is going to be really really good and a lot of people
20:16thinking that it could be the steal of the draft and when it all comes down to
20:21it we might be talking about him and Trevor Lawrence more than we're talking
20:24about anybody else here so I think this kid is I think he's going to be special
20:29and I think they're going to utilize them at Doug Peterson's offense a lot
20:32this year he looked really good on Sunday in his career debut catching a
20:38touchdown when things were going well for the Jaguars in that opening half the
20:42second half Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense held scoreless
20:47tough day for Travis ETN who did have that costly fumble but four targets four
20:52grabs 47 yards a touchdown for the other wide receiver out of LSU drafted in the
20:58opening round Brian Thomas jr. and I will just say we see the market movement
21:03in a positive way on Jaden Daniels plus 470 20 cents added on to the number for
21:09Kayla Williams he was not good in his career debut for Chicago but Joe the
21:15reason that I had Kayla Williams winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award
21:19entering this season is because quarterbacks have a tough thing to win
21:24the Offensive Rookie of the Year hardware because they normally get
21:28drafted early to a bad team where not much is expected and the Bears somehow
21:32someway still found their way to a win over the Titans even covering inside
21:38Soldier Field pretty much to say that if your quarterback as a rookie can lead
21:43your team to overall success a winning record a playoff spot it looks good in
21:49the Rookie of the Year hardware the stats will need to be better but the
21:53Bears win total is still eight and a half in the over still has the juice a
21:58winning record expected for NFL reactions after week one next from the
22:03rookies to the vets the Offensive Rookie of the Year award odds update to now the
22:08MVP race after week number one Patrick Mahomes entered the year as the favorite
22:14to win his third NFL MVP award his second trophy in the last three seasons
22:20the Chiefs look good on Thursday night in the season debut Mahomes throwing for
22:25nearly 300 291 to be exact a touchdown and an interception and the price has
22:32grown shorter plus 350 now the number on Mahomes to win the NFL MVP award seems a
22:39little bit exaggerated Josh Allen for total touchdowns to lead Buffalo back to
22:44a victory over Arizona in the home opener on Sunday afternoon CJ Stroud
22:50continues to do CJ Stroud things 234 yards two touchdowns clean football as
22:57Houston wins in a high-scoring affair in Indianapolis week number one Joe those
23:02are the three guys with a three-digit price less than ten to one or shorter
23:07Mahomes Allen Stroud all justified to have that short of a number
23:14listen I'll keep it simple with this Ben I think whoever you believe is gonna
23:20represent the AFC in the Super Bowl is your MVP so whoever you is that you
23:28think is going to make it and run the run the table and play the NFC that is
23:32gonna be your MVP so if you think Houston this year has a legit shot to to
23:38win the AFC crown and Stroud is going to be it if you think it's Baltimore well
23:43then they're gonna have to beat Mahomes and somewhere along the line here and
23:46get it done he's gonna have to have an unbelievable year make it Lamar I and we
23:50already know if the bills can run that the only way the bills are running the
23:53tables if Josh Allen has an MVP year so who do you think is gonna win the AFC
23:58that is going to be your MVP because every one of those guys in the AFC are
24:04better than any of the guys listed in the NFC when you look at those prices
24:09right there there are three or four quarterbacks I should say in the top 10
24:13from the NFC but the shortest number was Jalen Hurts who looked a little bit
24:18shaky in Sao Paulo with two INT's but of the what is that the seven best
24:24prices I guess there's a group at 16 to 1 but of those seven first names that
24:29you see Hurts is the only quarterback from the NFC and then Purdy who was
24:34alongside Jackson and Tunga Vailoa at a 16 to 1 number Dak Prescott follows suit
24:40at 18 to 1 I still have a little bit of belief in Jared Goff at a 20 to 1 price
24:45knowing the offensive number should be very good this year under Ben Johnson I
24:51don't know why Mahomes is necessarily that short at plus 350 it wasn't like he
24:57was incredible by Mahomes standard and that is a standard that requires him
25:03surpassing it to win the NFL MVP award Josh Allen was really really good
25:09against Arizona and frankly had to be 18 of 23 for 232 yards and two touchdowns
25:1639 yards on the ground and two scores as well a couple of those MVP contenders
25:23Tua and Josh will face off on Thursday night to start week number two 48 and a
25:29half is the total in Miami the Dolphins a point and a half favorite frankly at
25:35this moment Joe I'm not sure any of those prices are worth a bet but I do
25:40agree with your analysis that the team that wins the ASE probably has the best
25:45opportunity of having that MVP frontrunner and you're getting Joe Burrow
25:49who is 10 to 1 entering the year now at a 15 to 1 price he was not great
25:54Cincinnati was awful and atrocious in their home debut against New England on
25:59Sunday yeah not not good and and I do think you'll have any one of those guys
26:06I think over the first four games Ben is probably going to take a step back and I
26:12think that is when you probably want to jump in if you're going to be in this
26:16market wait until one of those quarterbacks has a has a bad game or the
26:21team loses and then watch the overreaction in the marketplace the
26:25only one that's not going to move is my homes and we all know it and with good
26:29reason yeah and that's really the case right if you didn't bet one of these
26:34guys in the preseason I don't know if you're gaining an odds advantage either
26:39from a longer number or a shorter price that makes you feel even more justified
26:44on your early season thought we know CJ Stroud is going to be in consideration
26:49at a point last year as he was already etching his name on the NFL offensive
26:53rookie of the year award trophy in week eight or nine he was a part of the NFL
26:59MVP consideration he looks really good and again one of the things about CJ
27:04Stroud that was so impressive during his rookie season how great care he took of
27:09the football he had five interceptions in total three of those coming in a
27:13single game it took him a hundred and seventy seven attempts to even throw his
27:18first interception that was an NFL record our two is up next on the early
27:24line