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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - Eagles, Niners, one of the biggest games of the year
00:09 with one of the most eye catching lines of the season.
00:12 The 10 and one birds catching three in their own building.
00:16 What do you make of this game?
00:18 - I think that this spread obviously is inflated,
00:22 but it's probably not completely wrong.
00:24 Otherwise we would have seen strong Eagles money
00:26 come in on game day.
00:28 And I by now would have thought that we would have seen
00:30 those threes get wiped out by strong positions
00:33 for anybody who wanted Eagles tickets
00:35 waiting for this line to pop three
00:37 and limits rise on game day.
00:38 But we just haven't seen enough Eagles money
00:42 enter the market.
00:42 So I believe the market is efficient
00:45 and thus I don't see this number being completely wrong.
00:47 Now I attack this game a little bit differently.
00:49 I look to the Eagles, faded the Eagles in the first half
00:53 rather than the full game
00:54 because of how the Philadelphia Eagles start games
00:57 this year compared to last year.
00:59 If you look at full game stats,
01:01 this Eagles team looks nearly identical
01:03 to what they were last year.
01:05 But the big difference is this year's Eagles
01:07 are playing catch up mode late in games.
01:09 On average, they were actually losing at halftime.
01:12 Though they're 10 and one,
01:13 they actually have a losing deficit at halftime this season.
01:17 Whereas last year at halftime,
01:19 they were leading by an average of 7.1 points per game.
01:22 And that was the best margin of any team in the NFL.
01:25 So the big night and day difference
01:27 between these two teams this year to last year,
01:29 I think the Niners are able to come out here
01:31 and start quickly.
01:32 There's a number of props that I took on this game.
01:34 I like Brock Purdy.
01:35 I took his yardage over.
01:36 I took his passing touchdowns over.
01:38 I think Brock Purdy's going to have a little bit
01:40 of success here against this Eagles secondary.
01:43 This Eagles defense without Zach Cunningham there
01:45 patrolling the middle of the field.
01:47 They're already down to Kobe Dean.
01:49 This is a problem for them.
01:50 And I like the Eagles to come out the gate struggling.
01:54 I think the Niners first half,
01:56 I like the Niners first half team total over 10 and a half.
01:59 If it's 12 and a half,
02:00 you could still go over that number
02:02 because I think you really rarely going to see a 11
02:05 or 12 scored in the first half.
02:06 So 10 and a half to me is virtually the same as 12 and a half.
02:10 I still think that the Niners get at least 13 here
02:13 in the first half.
02:14 (upbeat music)
02:16 (bells chiming)