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00:00for a little, uh, Netflix special coming up tomorrow afternoon. Chief Steelers Ravens
00:08Texans in, I think it goes pretty simple in this one. The Steelers are getting the score
00:14grabbing the points home dogs. I think for Kansas City, Patty Mahomes playing a little
00:18banged up. He's always got this ankle injury. He's always got this ankle injury, but they
00:23could be looking towards the post season. Steelers come in, catch him napping and the
00:28Ravens going against the Texans. Well, Joe, we highlighted some of the wildcard contenders,
00:33Baltimore, very, very scary. And you look at Lamar Jackson, what we saw in that press
00:38early there yesterday, my guy's excited. He's excited to be in the building. He's excited
00:43to see Beyonce in person for the very first time. And for the Texans, look, they're a
00:48little banged up as well. Tank doll. That's a massive loss for them. So give me the Ravens
00:53to cover their five and a half. Love the look of the Steelers at home and what's going to
00:56be a bit of an arm wrestle. We saw plenty. We're projecting a lot of points in the association.
01:03Something for me, Joe, leans towards the unders in both spots. I think it's going to be run
01:07game heavy where we really don't see that high octane offense that we're expecting to
01:12see from a couple of these gun shooters. So what do you think, Joe? Are we seeing it eye
01:16to eye? Are you jumping in on Dubsy's holiday hamper parlay, if you will, for Wednesday?
01:23I agree. I would even go, I like the unders in, in this spot as well with you here, dubs,
01:30especially the Steelers at home for intunity under. And we know Kansas city is not in a
01:36rush to run up and down the field on anybody. I think their games are only averaging around
01:4242 points. So I do think the only thing I worry about is the short week. It usually
01:47affects the defenses more than the offenses. I do think maybe if you're looking to fade
01:55a team, maybe you should be looking to fade the team total of the Houston Texans. Because
02:01I do think they're going to be going through it. They are trying to get, and listen as
02:06it is, they haven't been the most prolific offense this year. I think they're going to
02:10have, I think they're going to have problems against this much improved Ravens defense
02:15as well. I think 20 and a half was the team total doves. I mean, are they getting to 21
02:21points here on this Ravens team? I don't know. CJ Stroud has become very predictable and
02:27so has the Houston Texans team. So if they ain't scoring early, they ain't scoring late
02:33against Baltimore. So I would look to fade them and go under their team total.
02:37Yeah, I, yeah, I can't see it. So we're in line on that one. And this is gonna be the
02:42last segment for me, Joe. We've got Tom Vecchio, who's going to join the program to close out
02:46the third and final hour here of the early line on the Sports Grid Network. But I need
02:50to get your thoughts. MVP market, Josh Allen, we've sung his praises all show, minus $4.50.
02:57Very short price. Is there a world, is there a scenario in which Lamar Jackson could catch
03:02up in this award? We've just got two games to play. He sits at plus $3.80. What would
03:07Lamar have to do to close out the season and maybe overtake Josh Allen? Is it even
03:12possible or is it already done and dusted? I don't see how. I mean, they've been trying
03:17to give this award to Josh Allen for the last couple of years. They're just looking for
03:22an excuse to give it to him. And the numbers are certainly there. The team success is there.
03:28The only wild card, and I don't think it's Lamar. I think the wild card here is Joe Burrow.
03:35And Joe Burrow gets Cincinnati to the playoffs here because his numbers, it's what now? Six
03:41straight games with three touchdown passes or more. I mean, the guy has been absolutely
03:47unbelievable here and he's got a, you know, he's got a small chance, but nonetheless,
03:53they're going to need some help. But if he finishes it out strong with another three
03:57plus touchdown performance in back-to-back games here and finish the year, I think Burrow
04:02has got the shot, the outside chance, depending on how things fall. But I do think with the
04:08voters, it just feels like they've been trying to give Josh Allen this award, looking to
04:13give him this MVP award. And I think he's finally going to get it this year. It's probably
04:17already done. Yeah. Yeah. I think he's, he's very close to having that thing locked up
04:23and the odds reflective of that minus 450. But if you wanted to make the case for Joey
04:28Burrow and you, you build a pretty strong argument, still sitting at 150 to one to
04:34take out the MVP for this season. But I think you'd have to correlate that with that little
04:38playoff dance and a playoff run. And so with that, that's a, that's going to do it for
04:42me here on the Tuesday card. I've asked you what the drink choice is for Christmas day.
04:47I've asked you what's going to be on the dinner table. What about sweets? You know, your boy's
04:52got a sweet tooth. What are we packing? Oh, it's gotta be, it's all cannolis, man. Cannolis
04:58and tiramisu. That's the only way you can go. Just all homemade. Sicko. You absolute
05:04sicko. All right. Welcome back into the early line. I'm Joe and Eric. Appreciate you stopping
05:18by as we T minus 24 hours and counting here. Christmas day will be upon us and we'll have
05:25five NBA games, but more importantly, we'll have two NFL games and we're going to do a
05:31deep dive into both of those games as we welcome in our good friend, Tom Vecchio here on the
05:37early line. And Tom, I listened to scheduling has been interesting by the NFL and deciding
05:43to just bury the Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs in three games in 10 days. My goodness.
05:51This is an interesting early game. I think Kansas City's win last week and my homes didn't
05:58seem to have any injury, but I think Kansas City's win last week pretty much wraps up
06:03the one seed in the AFC. I don't think it mattered whether Kansas City had it or not.
06:09I don't think they're at that point with this team, but it likely they're going to get it.
06:14But this is a big ass for both these teams. Steelers heading one way feels like the chiefs
06:20heading the other. We're talking about a field goal or less here. Tomlin as a home dog has been
06:26profitable over the years. Who wins this game? I honestly think the Steelers come away with it,
06:32but it's going to be super close. Like I can't fault people for wanting to take the Chiefs at
06:37minus two and a half, which is, you know, the argument people have always made, like, oh,
06:40they're not covering these numbers that are six and a half or seven or ten and a half when they're
06:43going up against the Panthers. But, you know, they end up winning by a field goal. Surprise,
06:47surprise, and Butker is back. So they're that much better. You know, I don't want to lay the
06:50minus 120 at two and a half. So I am on board with taking the Steelers. I also side with the
06:55under in this game. This is a super important game for a Steelers team that's kind of reeling
06:59at this point, like you said. And I don't know what you feel about the other game, which we can
07:03get into, but that's a very straightforward, winnable game for the Ravens. And if they win
07:07that and the Steelers lose this, the Steelers had control of the division all season. And now
07:12they've seen it slip away over the past few weeks. So I think this has to be a game where
07:15the Steelers look to control the ball and control the clock and just keep out of my home's hands
07:20as much as possible and hopefully lean towards the under like that's how they win this game.
07:24I don't think putting the ball in Russell Wilson's hands 35 times is a path to them winning. They
07:29don't want to turn this into a barn burner back and forth. Well, yeah, I mean, and to your point
07:35on the under here, it's not like this is the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs offense of years
07:41past here. I mean, they, their games are just averaging about 42 points here and you can see
07:47the total at 44 and a half, 43 and a half. The only problem I have is, have you seen this Pittsburgh
07:56defense over the last couple of weeks? They've been getting gashed, haven't they? And, and it's
08:01not what, I mean, what's playing. So like, what's the deal with this secondary and Tomlin's defense
08:09at a certain point? They were, they were so good that a, they may be in for a little bit of
08:14regression, but at a certain point, we're also just dealing with that. They were so good. You
08:18know, attrition is starting to hurt them where they're just slowly taking steps back. It's not
08:22like a massive performance. Like you're saying like week by week, they're getting just slightly
08:26worse, slightly worse. And you know, this is a point where I think Pacheco and Kareem Hunt could
08:31have a big game on ground. As much as I think the Steelers need to play things into their hands and
08:35play like how they, they need to like force the Chiefs to play their style. But Pacheco and Hunt
08:39both having big games, I think is on the table. And we're looking at Kansas City team total at
08:4423 and a half. You know, we're getting Pacheco at plus one 54 touchdown. So everyone is plus
08:50money in this game. So really expecting a solid amount of scoring. I like Pacheco. I also mind
08:56don't taking a shot on Hollywood Brown up at plus three 30, like a quarter unit kind of play on
09:01that. He's back. He's healthy. Granted, you only played 27% of the snaps last week, but they want
09:05to get him back in the mix after, you know, his first game last week. So I think this has to be a
09:10very straightforward game from both teams. Like you said, it's not necessarily a must win for the
09:14Chiefs, but this is a huge statement game for the Steelers. If they're able to come away with the
09:18win. How big does Pickens playing change your, change the way you look at this game? If he plays
09:27if he plays correct, their offense has been terrible over the past few weeks. Like it's
09:31just completely different when they don't have that downfield threat. If they have that,
09:35I actually think it opens up a path for nausea Harris to have a big game because
09:38you know, we're looking at other other games or the past few weeks where
09:42opponents can stack the box against the Steelers. There's no viable cat pass catching options. Like
09:47Pat Fryer moves. I think is good, but we can get in the ball to Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin,
09:52like Mike Williams, like these aren't consistent pass catching options. So if Pickens is out there
09:56and he has that default threat, that moonshot that we know that Russell Wilson likes to give,
09:59I actually think it opens up a bit for nausea Harris to have a solid game.
10:05So it's that's the one o'clock game. And again, big game for Pittsburgh at home as a dog Baltimore
10:14handled their business against Pittsburgh last week. They got to take on, I don't know, Houston,
10:19Texas team. To me, it's just heading in the wrong direction that, you know, you're picking up
10:26Deontay Johnson off of waivers in desperation because you don't have anybody else. They can't
10:33figure it out in the second half. There's no adjustments. They're the worst second half team
10:38in the NFL. I don't see them playing from in front in this game. And that's the problem here.
10:44How do you see this? I'm totally in agreement there from where their season started. The hype
10:50coming in off of Stroud's year last year, you bring in digs. Like you think you have this high
10:54flying offense ready to go. And we saw Joe Mixon start the year super strong. That has all changed.
10:59And their defense is inconsistent. Their offense can't move the ball. Their offensive line is
11:03terrible. Stroud is constantly under pressure. There's nothing that says to me, like you said,
11:08if they do not get out in front, they won't have the lead at any point. And the Ravens will win
11:12wire to wire. They will take care of business. Lamar, one passing, one rushing, a rushing
11:17touchdown from Derek Henry. And at no point do I think that the Texans will be live to win and
11:22probably not even cover. Like, I just don't think there's any path for them outside of a disaster
11:28game from Lamar with two pick sixes. I don't think there's a shot that the Texans win this game.
11:34I'm with you. And what people haven't noticed, Tom, is that since week 10,
11:39the Ravens haven't given up more than 315 yards in a game to any team. This defense has gotten
11:45better as the season has progressed. And I don't see Houston being the one that gets them to revert
11:52back to. I don't see a 400-yard performance here from this Houston offense. And if the game is out
11:58of hand, are the starters even playing? Are you risking any more injuries in the second half with
12:05Houston? I mean, at that point, no. I mean, Neal Collins is great. But if he's not getting the
12:10ball, who do they have on offense besides Joe Mixon? Like, they already won the division.
12:14They're making the playoffs. So like you said, you actually may want to reel things back on Joe
12:17Mixon as the game comes to a close. Yeah, there's a we'll talk a few more props in that game. Maybe
12:24a couple of team totals as well. We'll touch base on the NBA as we look to close out the early line
12:31next year on the grid. All right. Welcome back in here. The early line on the SportsGrid Network,
12:37Joe Neri alongside Tom Vecchio as we're getting you ready for Christmas Day football, the NFL.
12:44We're talking about the second game on the slate tomorrow, which happens to be a rematch. If you
12:50may recall, the divisional round game last year where Houston barely got over 200 yards of offense
12:58and were certainly missing tanked out then and scored, oh, I think a whopping three offensive
13:03points here. Baltimore's defense, we were just talking about this, Tom. They have this, everyone
13:10has this impression because of how the season started that they're a terrible defense. But
13:15yet since week 10, they haven't given up more than 315 yards in any game. The defense has gotten
13:22better. I don't see team total 20 and a half for Houston. Are they getting 21 points in this game?
13:29Because I don't see it. The only way I see happening is if it's like a backdoor garbage time
13:36where the Ravens drop 30, 35 points and they maybe they pull some defensive starters. They've
13:41had their injuries on defense. And then we see a late touchdown that is absolutely meaningless.
13:46The Ravens still cover. That's the only spot that I see them getting to. And like you said,
13:50this defense has gotten better week in and week out for the Ravens and outside of Nico Collins
13:56and Joe Mixon probably not moving the ball too much on the ground. I don't know where they're
13:59going to be getting the yards to put them in a spot. I will say the one prop that I do like
14:04from the Houston side of things is Joe Mixon over 19 and a half receiving yards.
14:09When we're looking back at some of these recent game logs, you know, only 14 last week, but 33,
14:1318, 23, 44 and 44 from mixing with how bad this Houston offensive line has been. Stroud is not
14:21going to have a ton of time. We saw it last week. He has to get out of the pocket quickly. So easy
14:25check downs to Joe Mixon. We'll get him some yards, but they're not going to be sustaining drives.
14:30Speaker 3 Can't, I just can't see it. It's, it's tough to do. I do however, think that,
14:38and listen, Baltimore as average, what 34 points a game over the last couple of weeks,
14:43the number one offense, they have been money to the over 12 and three on the season to the over,
14:50no matter what the other team does here, the total at 46 and a half. I can only look over
14:57because I think I think Baltimore is more than capable of dropping 30 points or more in this
15:03game. And I don't think Houston's going to contribute all that much, but they certainly
15:09can contribute enough to help this thing get up and over. Right. What are we like? 31, 17,
15:1634, 17. I think that's very reasonable. And like you said, we're right at the number pushes over
15:21maybe late, but again, as we said in the last segment, Ravens, they will be out in front.
15:26They should be again, wire to wire victory for them. I think they cover, you know, obviously
15:30they win and what's the Ravens team total. What are we looking at? Probably 27 and a half, 28 and
15:35a half, whatever it is for them. I think they do 27 and a half. Yep. 27 and a half touchdowns.
15:41You know, Tucker, he's has inconsistencies this year. You take it for what you will. They're
15:44going to be inside, you know, no conditions. I think they go over the team total. I think they
15:48cover like this is just, let's, let's stop talking about the Texans offense for what they were.
15:53This is as straightforward as game as you possibly can imagine for the Ravens. And they
15:57will know they've a shot at the division. If the Steelers lose at 1. Yeah, absolutely. There's a
16:03lot on the line here. And sometimes we want to overthink it and let's, let's not do it at this
16:10particular point. All right. NBA season starts tomorrow. We all know it. Nobody will admit it,
16:15but we all know the NBA season starts on Christmas. But having said that some interesting
16:21match-ups here tomorrow, I'm going to start with the late game because
16:25I can't trust the Phoenix suns. I don't know what the hell that was last night
16:30to have rest advantage going there, to have Denver on the second of a back-to-back in a rough game,
16:37all signs pointing towards Phoenix. And they look as dysfunctional as they can be.
16:42I usually like to go opposite, right? Hey, Denver won the game 24 hours ago. I'm going to look to
16:49fade Denver and back Phoenix, but I can't, I just can't at this point, Tom. And, and they lost a
16:55Phoenix loss was a couple of days ago at home to Detroit. No, the rants in and out of the lineup.
17:02And listen, obviously the talent is immense and Booker could drop 40 points, but he could do so
17:06in a losing effort. So like you said, like, why would we have, there's nothing that they've done
17:11to prove to us that like, we should have faith in them that they're going to be winning this game.
17:15So I'm on board with that. Like, and I understand the concept, he said, like, oh,
17:19Denver, they lost a back-to-back game, et cetera, et cetera. That's a spot that I always love to go
17:23to, but it's got to be Denver. And I will say quickly. So the early game, early game real quick,
17:29I like Jalen Brunson going over his combined points plus assistant sitting at 31, going up
17:34against the Spurs, not worried about the Spurs defense at all Brunson in a bounce back game.
17:39I love that. Tom Vacchio, always a pleasure, my man. We'll see you again this week. Have
17:45a great holiday and you do as well. Merry Christmas from all of us here on the early
17:50line. We'll see you again on Thursday on the grid, happy holidays.