BetQL betting experts weigh in on where you should place your money on the upcoming MLB and WNBA games
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Welcome to the Beck UL Daily Boost.
00:06I'm Lucy Burge of Beck UL and I am joined by Matt Horner and Kate Constable and we have
00:12one heck of an MLB odds boost for all of you today on the Phillies to win and Trey Turner
00:17to hit a home run.
00:19This is boosted to plus 900 at Caesars.
00:22What do we think of this week?
00:24I really like this boost actually today.
00:26I mean the Phillies have dropped their last two games to the Braves.
00:28So if they want to avoid getting swept, now is the time.
00:31So let's go Phillies.
00:33Also Max Freed is on the mound and he, the Braves have lost four of his last five starts.
00:38So haven't been all that successful with Freed on the mound plus against Freed this Braves,
00:44this Phillies rather, lineup is hitting 319.
00:47So they've had a ton of success against him.
00:49I also love Breit's, not Breit's Harper, Trey Turner to hit a home run.
00:54He's hitting three homers off of Freed throughout his career.
00:58He's slugging 647 and it's hitting almost 400 against him.
01:03So he's had a ton of success against Freed.
01:05I think he gets going and that means the Phillies get going and get the win here.
01:09So works all around.
01:10Yeah.
01:11I don't have much to add to that.
01:13I mean the Phillies are a much better offense overall against left-handers this year.
01:17They have, they're actually the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching.
01:20They have a 122 WRC plus as an offense, which is just crazy.
01:24They're tied with the Orioles in that aspect.
01:27So yeah.
01:28And Trey Turner to get a home run.
01:29You just talked about his stats.
01:30Don't have a problem with this.
01:31A little bit of a sprinkle.
01:33Very nice.
01:34Get in on this odds boost plus 900 at Caesars and take advantage of our offer from BetMGM.
01:40Bet $10.
01:41Get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet does not hit by entering code Lucy
01:46when you sign up for a new BetMGM account now and head to betql.com.
01:51Check out our exclusive sports book offers there as well.
01:54And of course, follow us on Twitter at Kate Constable at sharp underscore side underscore
01:59and at Lucille Verge favorite bets today.
02:02I'm sticking with this game and I'm taking JT Real Muto to have over one and a half hits
02:08runs RBI.
02:09I have a couple of bets in this game and I kept mixing them all up, including one with
02:13Bryce Harper, but JT Real Muto and Trey Turner.
02:16And I was like, oh, I want Real Muto over one and a half hits runs RBI and Turner to
02:21hit a home run.
02:22There's so much good stuff in this game.
02:23But this is one of my bets here.
02:25So he has hit this in his last five games with six hits, five RBI and two runs in those
02:30last five.
02:31And against Max Freed, he is batting 381 with 16 hits, including four home runs.
02:37And Freed comes into this one with a 3.62 ERA and he has allowed 12 earned runs over
02:43his last three starts.
02:44So I like JT Real Muto to go over on this.
02:48Lucy, we are like in lock sync today because I was going to take, um, um, who was it?
02:56Well, clearly we're not in locks in sync.
02:59Well, Trey Turner, that one we talked about before the show.
03:01You're taking that one as your...
03:02Isn't it funny?
03:03I keep getting like, I originally wrote this as, oh, Real Muto to hit a home run.
03:07And I wrote Real Muto as well at first, and then I was going to go to Turner and now I'm
03:13going Castellanos.
03:14Isn't that crazy?
03:16So like, I don't know why.
03:17I think we just have to come up big today because we love the Phillies.
03:20Go Phillies!
03:21Go Phillies!
03:22Like, what could go wrong, right?
03:24It's so wild.
03:25Yeah.
03:26Yeah.
03:27Which is why, um, for my best man on this pod today, I'm going to go over to the WNBA.
03:30I'm going to take the Atlanta Dream, uh, plus two and a half.
03:34I also think this is worth just sprinkling a little on the money line here.
03:37They're playing the Mercury tonight and the Dream have really been rolling since the Olympic
03:41break.
03:42They've won their last two games.
03:43They've beaten top teams, the Storm and the Sun.
03:45Those are great opponents to get wins against.
03:47I know it's a small sample size, but Atlanta is fourth in net rating and defensive rating
03:51over that span.
03:52It also sits in the half, top half of the league in offensive rebounding percentage
03:56and limiting opponents' second chance points is an area that the Mercury really struggle
04:01and they are dead last in that category.
04:03So, um, I think Dream can keep this one close tonight.
04:06They may even be able to sneak out the win if you want to take them on the money line
04:09for some plus money.
04:10There you go.
04:11Some WNBA betting.
04:12I'm going to go back to the Diamond.
04:14We're going to go with the Angels and the Royals tonight over nine.
04:18It's moving to nine and a half in some places, so see if you can grab the nine while you
04:21can.
04:22It's minus 110 at Bed Rivers when I saw that.
04:24Uh, this game is being played in Kansas City at the ballpark where a lot of offense has
04:28taken place this year.
04:29It's one of the highest park factors in the league.
04:31Winds are blowing in, which is a little bit of a detriment, but it's only seven miles
04:34per hour, so it's not too bad.
04:36Plus, these starting pitchers today are horrendous.
04:39Los Angeles is starting Johnny Cueto.
04:41He's making his debut this year.
04:43Last year for the Miami Marlins, terrible.
04:465.13 expected ERA, 5.20 expected FIP.
04:49His decline is obvious.
04:51He's getting older.
04:52He's getting up there in age, and I just do not see him at this point in his career being
04:56anything more than a below average arm at very best.
04:59Probably more of a replacement level type of pitcher, so I think the Royals, they're
05:03in their superior split as well against the right-hander in Cueto.
05:06They have a 102 WRC plus versus a 95 they have against lefty, so they're in their superior
05:11split.
05:12On the other side, you have Michael Lorenzen going for Kansas City.
05:14I've talked about his regression all year long.
05:17368 ERA, 4.70 expected ERA, 5.01 expected FIP, 81.6% strand rate, 242 BABF.
05:26I mean, he has all the ingredients necessary of a blowup coming.
05:30Angels, I know they're terrible against right-handed pitching.
05:33They have an 89 WRC plus, but I'm still willing to back that regression a bit.
05:37I think nine is a little bit low of a total here.
05:39In Kansas City tonight with these two guys on the mound, so give me the over nine in
05:44the Angels and the Royals game.
05:46I love that.
05:47Get in on this odds boost plus 900 ad seizures and subscribe to the Beck QL Daily Boost
05:52wherever you get your podcast.