BetQL Boost of the Day: Insights on todays MLB games
BetQL betting experts weigh in on where you should place your money on the upcoming MLB games
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00:00Welcome to the Beck QL Daily Boost. I'm Lucy Burge of Beck QL and I am joined by Matt Horner
00:09and we have a massive odds boost for all of you today in Major League Baseball. This boost
00:15is on four teams, all of them to win the Orioles, Red Sox, Braves and Twins all to win. Boosted
00:22to plus 800 at Caesars. What do you think of this boost, Matt?
00:26I don't mind it. You're getting eight to one odds here, obviously. So whenever you get
00:29an eight to one odds on something, you're not going to be putting that much money down
00:33on it. So caution, definitely just a sprinkle here, I would say. But you know, with these
00:37four teams, I don't mind their matchups today. Honestly, the Orioles are facing the Astros.
00:42The Astros call Hunter Brown on the mound. He's worse on the road. He's a much better
00:47pitcher at home. So again, Cade Povich going for them, not the greatest, but at the same
00:52time, I definitely think they can win. Red Sox at home against the Diamondbacks today.
00:56I love the Red Sox and their second half, which I know you'll be happy to hear about
00:59that. So I think they can. I think they can definitely win this game. Chris Sale on the
01:03mound for the Braves. Chris Sale probably going to win the Cy Young. He's absolutely
01:06fantastic. And then the other one, oh, the Minnesota Twins. Yes, the Twins are facing
01:11the Cardinals. Don't like the Cardinals. They have been ice cold down the stretch. So, yeah,
01:15you want to sprinkle this one at eight to one odds quite a bit. I don't mind it.
01:20Yeah. Love this boost. Plus 800 at Caesars. Get in on that and take advantage of our offer
01:25from BetMGM. Bet $10. Get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet does not
01:31hit by entering code Lucy when you sign up for a new BetMGM account now and head to betql.com
01:38and check out our exclusive sports book offers there as well. And of course, follow us on
01:43Twitter at sharp underscore side underscore and at Lucille Verge, our favorite bets today.
01:49So this guy has been very hot lately. So I thought, why not take Aaron Judge over one
01:54and a half total basis? This is minus one thirty five at BetMGM, but there's still a
01:58little bit of value there. And I think if he even if he doesn't hit a home run, which
02:01yes, he could very well, it is awesome to run really what most players to go over one
02:08and a half bases is plus one ninety or something tonight. Nuts, nuts. The guy is nuts. So just
02:13to go over one and a half bases, I feel very confident that he has hit this in his last
02:17three games with four, eight and six in those. And he has hit this in nine of his last ten
02:23games with seven home runs in those last ten. Kyle Freeland has an ERA of five point
02:29nine seven and has allowed eight hits in his or just in his last start, allowed eight hits.
02:34So I think this could be another big game for Aaron Judge. Maybe a home run. I wouldn't
02:37hate that, but I'm going with him to go over one and a half bases. Yeah. Aaron Judge think
02:43he can do it. Yeah, I think it's pretty good. I think he has a pretty good chance of doing
02:48that plus one ninety to hit a home run. That is absolutely insane to me. Yeah. Over one
02:54and a half total bases. I love it. I am going to go to the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. They're
02:58playing in the late game over in Los Angeles against the Dodgers here. I'm going to take
03:03the Rays on the money line at some massive plus money. You can get around plus one seventy
03:07four right now over at MGM. Yeah, it's a lot. I understand that. And they are the Rays facing
03:13the Dodgers. But if you take a look at the two starting pitching matchups in the bullpen
03:17in this game, I don't see how they're plus one seventy four. I just think that's way
03:22too massive of a price. Tyler Alexander getting the starts for the Rays. He's a left hander.
03:27He's not that great. He has a five seventeen era, but he is due for some positive regression.
03:32Five thirteen expected era and a four forty two expected fifth. He's still a below average
03:37arm. He's not great, but he is due for some positive regression, which I like there. The
03:42Dodgers are great against lefties. I'm not going to say they're not. They have a one
03:45seventeen WRC plus. But countering him is Bobby Miller, right handed pitcher for the
03:50Dodgers. He has been horrendously bad. And when I say horrendously bad, he's been a disaster.
03:56He has a five point oh eight walks through nine rate, which is the highest I've seen.
04:01The guy has zero command. He's lost two miles per hour off his velocity down a fastball
04:07velocity, I should say, from ninety nine to ninety seven. His era is eight point oh two,
04:12which he's anybody with an era that high is due for some positive regression. Usually
04:17six point seven two expected era and a four eighty one expected fifth. But either way,
04:21even with those numbers, I see him as a replacement level arm. He's just been really bad in the
04:27starts. His triple A starts were not that good either. And I see him as either on par
04:32with Alexander or even slightly worse than Alexander getting the start tonight. So I
04:38think he's terrible. I'm going to fade him. Then the bullpens, both these teams own top
04:42ten bullpens. The Rays bullpen has been really solid, especially as of late. This is a team
04:47that people left for dead after the trade deadline. But quietly, they've won five of
04:50their last seven games. They just swept the red hot diamondbacks and the Rays have been
04:56competing honestly. And if you're going to give me plus one seventy four with a top ten
05:00bullpen, both bullpens top ten and a pitcher who's equal to or slightly better than the
05:07Dodgers pitcher, I think it's worth it. Plus one seventy four. I think that's way too much.
05:11Give me the Rays tonight to beat the Dodgers at that large plus money number. Love that.
05:16Get in on our bets and the odds boost plus eight hundred at Caesars and subscribe to
05:20the Beck QL Daily Boost wherever you get your podcast.