BetQL betting experts weigh in on where you should place your money on the upcoming MLB games
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00:00Welcome to the Beck QL Daily Boost.
00:06I'm Lucy Burge of Beck QL, and I am joined by Matt Horner and Cade Constable, and we
00:11have an MLB odds boost for all of you today on the Phillies to win and Zach Wheeler to
00:16have over seven and a half strikeouts.
00:19This is boosted to plus 250 at Caesars.
00:20What do we think of this boost?
00:22I like this one.
00:23I'm on the Phillies today as well, so I think that is a great bet.
00:27They have a seven game lead over the Braves in the NL East right now, and Zach Wheeler,
00:31I mean, he's been great all season long.
00:33I know Chris Hale's kind of run away with the Cy Young as of now, but Wheeler has been
00:37solid.
00:38A career ERA just over three against the Braves, and Phillies offense is much better than Atlanta's
00:43as of late.
00:44It scored 34 runs over its last five games.
00:47Atlanta only has 15 runs over its last five games, so in terms of the Phillies winning
00:50tonight, I think with Wheeler and the run score he'll get, I like that.
00:55In terms of the strikeouts, certainly a number, I mean, a tie, but something that Wheeler
00:58can hit.
00:59The Braves have also had a tough time hitting against the Wrighties, and Wheeler's been
01:04solid again, throwing just four runs over his last three starts, so I think the Braves
01:09just being they've struggled at home, they've dropped their last five home games, and they've
01:13struggled hitting Wrighties lately.
01:15I like this boost a lot, Matt.
01:17Yep, don't mind it at all.
01:19As you said, the Braves, they've struggled with Wrighties pretty much all year, especially
01:22since the injuries early in the season.
01:23They have a 24% strikeout rate against them, so they've been keying up at quite a large
01:28margin there.
01:29Wheeler, he can get this done.
01:31It's a large number.
01:32Like you said, eight strikeouts is a lot, but that's why you're getting such plus money
01:35here on the other side.
01:36Love the Phillies as well.
01:37They're taking on Reynaldo Lopez.
01:39I love fading Reynaldo Lopez.
01:42Guy is pretty much an average pitcher that's been really exceeding expectations.
01:472.06 ERA, absolutely insane.
01:50440 expected ERA and a 388 expected FIP.
01:55It's basically two runs higher, so he's due for some extreme regression.
02:00The only problem, I guess, is that the Phillies have not been as good against right handers
02:03as they are lefties, but at the same time, that regression is going to come to him, and
02:07it's going to come soon.
02:08So yeah, I like the Phillies here.
02:10Don't mind this for a sprinkle.
02:11Very nice.
02:12Get in on this odds boost plus 250 at Caesars and take advantage of our offer from BetMGM.
02:18Get $10, get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet does not hit by entering
02:24code LUCY when you sign up for a new BetMGM account now and head to BetQL.com.
02:30Check out our exclusive sportsbook offers there as well, and of course, follow us on
02:34Twitter at KateConstable, at sharp underscore, side underscore, and at LucilleBurge.
02:39Favorite bets today, I am going with the Mets against the Orioles.
02:44This is Francesco Lindor.
02:45Two have over one and a half total.
02:47Oh, no, sorry.
02:48One and a half hits runs RBI, minus 140 at BetMGM.
02:52He has hit this in eight of his last nine games, and he has two home runs in his last
02:57six games, so he's certainly hit this in those.
02:59And in his last seven games, he has nine hits, seven runs, and five RBIs.
03:04And against Dean Kramer, he is batting 667 with a double and a single.
03:08So he could, I think, go over this against Dean Kramer and the Orioles tonight.
03:13Love it, Lucy.
03:14I'm going to go to the Royals.
03:15I'm going to take the Royals on the run line, minus one and a half.
03:19They're playing the Angels, who are not a good baseball team.
03:22Tyler Anderson's on the mound for LA, and he's coming off a terrible outing against
03:26the Blue Jays.
03:27Gave up seven runs in five and two-thirds, inning his ERA in the month of August, has
03:30ballooned just under six.
03:33So I don't really expect him to have a great outing today.
03:37Kansas City starter Cole Reagans, both Reagans and Anderson faced each other back in May,
03:42and Reagans was kind of blown up.
03:44Eight hits, seven runs in that loss, so I don't see him allowing a similar type of performance
03:49to happen tonight.
03:50And then the Royals' offense has just been unbelievable at home, one of the best scoring
03:54teams in the league at home, nearly five and 5.2 runs per game, and a 7-7-6 team OPS at
04:01home.
04:02So I think this Royals' offense can have plenty of success behind Reagans as the starter,
04:06so I will play them minus one and a half on the run line.
04:09Tyler Anderson getting his comeuppance.
04:11Thank God for that.
04:13He's been deserving of it for so long, that name.
04:16Yep.
04:17Oh, God.
04:18I am going to go to the Brewers and the Cardinals matchup tonight.
04:21We're going to take the under-eight runs.
04:22It was eight and a half, it's at eight, and some places it's at seven and a half, and
04:26it keeps going down, down, down.
04:28We've got two trade deadline acquisitions here.
04:31Frankie Montoz is on the mound for the Brewers.
04:34He's a below-average arm, he's not very good at all, but he's due for some positive regression,
04:38a little bit.
04:394.86 ERA, 4.77 expected, with a 4.56 expected FIP.
04:42On the other side, the Cardinals' offense has been pretty cold since the All-Star break.
04:47They've gone from a 1.08 WRC Plus against Wrighties, down to a 1.02.
04:51So they've been steadily going down, down, down in the offensive rankings, and then on
04:54the other side, you've got Eric Fetty going for the Cardinals.
04:57He's due for negative regression.
04:58He's more of an average pitcher than the 3.40 ERA that he's been showing.
05:02Brewers have also been steadily declining against Wrighties all year.
05:05They started off as one of the hottest teams in the league, somewhere around a 1.15, 1.16
05:09WRC Plus.
05:10They're down to 1.08, and they've been going down as the season's gone on.
05:14Mostly, though, this is a look at the weather in this game.
05:17You've got mid-70s temperatures here in St. Louis, and you've got winds blowing in from
05:22left field at about 10 miles per hour, so perfect pitching conditions there.
05:26Also, both of these teams were off yesterday, so their high-leverage relievers, all their
05:30bullpens should be fresh.
05:32They should have all their arms available to them.
05:34Both teams are top 10 and ex-fifth in the bullpen, so once the starters leave, I wouldn't
05:40expect there to be a ton of runs scored, so overall in this one, everything's pointing
05:43towards an under, and I'm going to take the under 8, minus 105 at Caesars, but the line
05:48is moving quickly, so if you're going to grab this, I'd go there as soon as you listen to
05:52this.
05:53Very nice.
05:54And, of course, listen every day and get in on our Odds Boost and all of our bets, and
05:59subscribe to the BetQL Daily Boost wherever you get your fun.
06:04Thanks for watching.
06:05We'll see you next time.