BetQL Boost of the Day: Insights on today's MLB games
BetQL betting experts weigh in on where you should place your money on the upcoming MLB games
Transcript
00:00Welcome to the BetQL Daily Boost.
00:06I'm Lucy Burge of BetQL, and I am joined by Matt Horner, and we have a Nerfy Odds Boost
00:12for all of you today on a Nerfy to occur in Rocky's Diamondbacks, Pirate's Padres, and
00:18Brave's Giants boosted to plus 550 at Caesars.
00:22Matt, what do you think of this boost?
00:24Yeah, I don't mind it.
00:25If you just want to put a little sprinkle down on it.
00:28Rockies right now have just been not hitting.
00:31It's been awful.
00:32I do the Nerfy article for us every single day, and let me just tell you, it's been a
00:35struggle over the past three weeks.
00:37There's been so many Yerfies, but you're getting plus 550 here to put all these together, so
00:42maybe just a little something on it.
00:44Rocky's Diamondbacks, the Rockies are terrible offensively.
00:46They're a disaster, especially on the road.
00:48The Diamondbacks, obviously a little worrisome.
00:51Their offense has been really hot lately, but could happen.
00:54Pirate's Braves, or Pirate's Padres, I should say.
00:57Pirate's also terrible offensively.
01:00The Padres, great offensively.
01:01So again, 50-50 shot.
01:04Then the Braves and the Giants, I like this one.
01:06I think you should be more concerned about Charlie Morton going for the Braves, honestly,
01:10tonight, than you would with Kyle Harrison going for the Giants, which I'll talk about
01:14in a minute.
01:15But yeah, plus 550, just a little bit.
01:18I don't mind it.
01:19Very nice.
01:20The betql.com Nerfy article, check that out every day, and get in on this odds boost,
01:25plus 550 at Caesars.
01:26Right here.
01:27Yes, exactly.
01:28See?
01:29Exactly.
01:30There's this cool thing, the Yerfies, that we are due for a stretch of Nerfy run.
01:34Right.
01:35That's why you check it out every day, to see if the heater begins, which today could
01:39begin with.
01:40Let's go.
01:41Yes.
01:42Let's absolutely go.
01:43Nerfy article and the boost, plus 550 at Caesars, and take advantage of our offer from BetMGM.
01:49Bet $10, get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet does not hit, by entering
01:55code LUCY when you sign up for a new BetMGM account now, and head to betql.com.
02:01Check out our exclusive sports book offers there as well.
02:04And of course, follow us on Twitter, at sharp underscore, side underscore, and at LUCYLBURG.
02:10Our favorite bets for today, I'm going with Jackson Holliday, to have over one and a half
02:16hits runs RBI against the Nationals.
02:19This is plus 105 at BetMGM.
02:22He has hit this in five of his last seven games, with five hits, six runs, six RBI,
02:27and four home runs in his last seven games.
02:29He has been very hot right now.
02:31He will be facing Jack Irvin, starting for the Nationals, who gave up eight hits and
02:35five runs in his last start.
02:37So I think this is a good spot for Holliday to just go over one and a half hits runs RBI.
02:41He's been really hot lately.
02:42So I think he can continue that tonight.
02:45Yeah.
02:46Don't mind that at all.
02:47We're on a long stretch of winning here on the Lockstar.
02:50We'll have one six straight.
02:52Yesterday, we hit that plus 214 parlay with the Twins in the over there.
02:57Oh, yay!
02:58Very nice.
02:59That has been killing it lately.
03:01So let's see if we can make it seven straight.
03:03It's going to be tough, but we'll see here.
03:05I'm going to go with the Giants tonight.
03:07San Francisco at minus 103 over at Vanduul against the Braves.
03:11I was just talking about this as part of the nerfy there.
03:14Charlie Morton is starting for the Braves.
03:17His month of July was horrendous.
03:206.21 ERA and 11 homers allowed in 29 innings.
03:24He got absolutely shelled, barreled, 10.1 percent barrel rate.
03:29He was getting destroyed.
03:30He's 40 years old at this point.
03:32I think fatigue, the amount of innings he's pitched, is starting to set in on him.
03:36He's an older guy at this point.
03:38He's just not having it this late into the season.
03:41And yeah, I think the Giants can get to him a little bit.
03:44They're not as great against righties.
03:4695 WRC plus for the 116 against lefties.
03:49I think they could put a number on him.
03:51On the other side, it's interesting.
03:52Kyle Harrison, he's usually a below average arm.
03:55He has a 472 expected ERA and a 428 expected FIF overall, so he's not great.
04:01But if you look at his home and road splits, that's the difference.
04:05When he pitches at home, 323 ERA with a 384 expected FIF.
04:10On the road, that flies up.
04:12494 ERA and a 506 X-FIF.
04:16And his home run rate is ridiculously crazy as well.
04:190.65 at home compared to 2.15 home runs through nine on the road.
04:24It's crazy.
04:25And it's because he's a fly ball pitcher.
04:2762% fly ball rate for Kyle Harrison in his career.
04:31When he pitches at home, he's pitching at Oracle Park.
04:33As we know, one of the best ballparks in baseball for pitchers
04:38limits home runs a lot at Oracle Park, only a 79 park factor.
04:42So he gets helped out a lot when he pitches at home
04:44because of how many fly balls he pitches.
04:46So I expect him to be better here going up against a Braves
04:49offense that has just been slumping.
04:51They're just kind of falling out of it at this point right now.
04:54So I think Harrison could be more aggressive here, have a better game.
04:57Morton is declining.
04:58He's going in the opposite direction at this point.
05:01So I like the value on the Giants here.
05:02Minus 103 over at Fandor.
05:04So give me the Giants as my lock of the day and my bet hero on the podcast.
05:08Very nice.
05:09Also check out the lock of the day article at betql.com.
05:11You can find it all there and here.
05:14So we have everything that you could also need on the Daily Boost right here.
05:17So get it on the Zod's Boost plus 550 at Caesars and subscribe to the Daily Boost
05:22wherever you get your podcast.