IHSG 0,09% ke level 7.205,838 di sesi I Kamis (8/8). IDX-Basic -1,05% AMMN -5,74% IDX-Energy -0,70% ADRO -1,55%. IDX Konsumer non primer -0,23% GGRM dan HMSP ke level terendah 10 tahun terakhir usai rilis kinerja, sentimen cukai dan PP kesehatan. IDX-Teknologi +0,31% BUKA +3,45%,GOTO +2%. ASII berbalik +2% di tengah aksi paparan publik perseroan.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us, and in this segment we will try to review how the business is doing throughout today's broadcast,
00:12where the Samkabungan family has experienced quite a high volatility and it seems in a few minutes of the closing,
00:18the 7,200-odd households seem to have been successfully occupied by the Samkabungan family.
00:23And we remind you that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812.8788.3723,
00:31as shown on the television screen later.
00:33And let's just talk to Mr. Ahmad Yakiye, Head of Online Trading and Technical BCH Security,
00:39who is not connected via YouTube.
00:41Mr. Yaki, good afternoon. How are you, sir?
00:44Good afternoon, sir.
00:46Thank you, Mr. Yaki, for your time on IDX Channel.
00:49Today, the Samkabungan family is more depressed, Mr. Yaki,
00:53even though the volatility is quite high because it was able to export at 7,234 earlier.
00:59It has experienced significant strength in the last few days.
01:03How do you see the movement pattern in the Samkabungan family today?
01:10From today's movement, it is indeed prone to profit taking or correction,
01:14because according to the V-CAM from this morning, the ISG strengthening is still possible,
01:20but it is a bit prone to profit taking in the range of 7,221 to 7,272.
01:29So, the risk area is still not strong enough for ISG to strengthen again
01:34and to correct again to test the support area again around 7,127 to 7,196.
01:39Actually, this is still relatively safe, there is no problem.
01:42And this is more because of Rupiah, which was already below the level of Rp. 16,000,
01:47even though the IS market is still weakening.
01:50For tomorrow, the last weekend, where will it go?
01:54Will the range of the Samkabungan family movement be more narrow, Mr. Yaki?
02:00Yes, if you look at today's movement, there is a potential for tomorrow,
02:04the ISG is prone to correction,
02:06but as long as the ISG maintains above the range of 7,125 to 7,130 for its support,
02:12and the closest resistance level is in the range of 7,250 to 7,260,
02:16the movement of the ISG will not be too far.
02:20Okay, Mr. Yaki, today from the sectoral movement rotation,
02:24there is a solid item that has become a burden, Mr. Yaki.
02:27Aman Mineral is experiencing a fairly deep correction today,
02:31in a position where its weakness is above 8%,
02:35in the 10,350 range today, it is quite wide with the deep correction that has occurred.
02:41What is your analysis like for Aman, which previously rose significantly in terms of employment,
02:46also yesterday from the laba side,
02:48this increase is also above the expectations of the market players, Mr. Yaki.
02:56Yes, if we look at the movement of the ISG,
02:59then also from the ISG, it's not too bad.
03:02Yes, and we also see that the chart is still in the range of MA100,
03:08so it should be today, if it can be closed above 10,450-10,600,
03:15this is actually quite interesting,
03:16but if it is closed below that, there is a potential for tomorrow to test the spot first,
03:21the range of 10,000 to 10,200,
03:23for the initial confirmation for him to return to the bullish,
03:25or he continues the bearish.
03:27So it's a bit worrisome for Aman,
03:29but actually from a business point of view,
03:31Mr. Yaki, you have also discussed that the results are good,
03:34but maybe a little worried,
03:36there are some rumors that Aman will be affected by the rebalancing effect,
03:40either MSCI or FBS, I forgot.
03:43This may make people a little panicked,
03:45in the last two days, the selling pressure was quite high,
03:47until it reached below the MA100.
03:50Okay, for those who are stuck in the 11,000 range,
03:53what is the analysis and strategy like, Mr. Yaki?
03:57It's best if you still want to hold some Aman,
04:02tomorrow pay attention to the range of 10,000 to 10,200,
04:05because if the 10,200 breaks,
04:07the spot is quite far, at 9,500 to 9,800 for the next spot.
04:11So be careful if Aman breaks below 10,000 to 10,200 tomorrow.
04:16That's my suggestion,
04:17so it's better to sell off first,
04:19if Aman breaks below 10,000.
04:21But if tomorrow it can rebound above 10,000,
04:25Aman's potential to rebound above 11,250 is quite good.
04:31What is the buy momentum at what level,
04:33when Aman continues the pressure later?
04:39If you really want a good entry for speculative,
04:42it's better to wait until Aman can rebound above 10,500,
04:48then we can entry buy again.
04:50Today, Aman is quite deep in the pressure,
04:52and becomes the heavyweight of the Samkabungan family,
04:548.61% at 10,350,
04:58the range is quite wide,
04:59the share price is from the highest intraday,
05:01today at 11,400 rupiah per share.
05:05Mr. Yaki, apart from Aman Mineral,
05:07the share that is also the heavyweight today,
05:10comes from the consumer stock,
05:12especially for Samsam, a cigarette producer.
05:14Coincidentally, today is also included in our topic of choice,
05:18from a technical point of view,
05:19these two stocks have touched the lowest level in the last 10 years.
05:25Before from a technical point of view,
05:27how do you see the prospects of Samsam, a cigarette producer,
05:30from several heavyweights,
05:32maybe Kinerja, Cuka Rokok,
05:34and then also the latest health insurance
05:36that has been announced by the government?
05:41This is more because of the weakness of the buyers and consumers
05:45who like to make the direction of policy
05:50that will be taken by this cigarette will also be a dilemma.
05:54Because no matter what,
05:57the weakness of the buyers will automatically make the cigarette consumers
06:00will shift from the usual premium,
06:03more to the bottom again,
06:04and if it is already in the middle,
06:06back to the bottom level again.
06:07That's why some cigarette producers like Jalom
06:10have also launched in several areas for the low-end series,
06:13such as Jalom Coko, Sekeranda, Jalom Mangga, and others.
06:15So indeed, the consumption shifting,
06:18cigarette consumption cannot be stopped or reduced,
06:21but more shifting to the cheaper ones.
06:23And this is a new problem for cigarette emitters,
06:26as I heard from HMS Fair and WIM,
06:28if they can't provide a new product diversification
06:31at a relatively affordable price.
06:34Okay.
06:36Until the end of the year,
06:38how do you see the prospects?
06:39Is the pressure still continuing, sir?
06:42For the end of the year,
06:44the pressure is still continuing,
06:46because the debris is still a bit heavy for this year.
06:49But maybe what's a bit better,
06:51maybe tomorrow around September,
06:53because there is the Kadah Bill,
06:55and this may be an additional catalyst,
06:57but it may not be too big,
06:59because for the consumer goods, especially cigarettes,
07:02because it will be more to the consumer goods,
07:04for the dairy products, more to that.
07:06Okay. Do you see the diversification that is being done,
07:09instead of focusing on cigarettes?
07:11Then there were also some emitters
07:13who were able to transfer or expand their business
07:16to infrastructure, like airports, Mr. Yaki.
07:20Is this not balanced enough so far?
07:23Actually, it's not quite balanced yet.
07:26But from the analysis side,
07:28we haven't seen how big the contribution is.
07:30Because like other emitters,
07:32who are still in the new business side,
07:35although maybe the growth is good,
07:38for example, Dulbert from rental cars and taxis,
07:43then made a charter bus,
07:45the growth is good, 30%,
07:47when they first built the first stone.
07:49But the production is only 5%-10%,
07:51so it's not visible.
07:53This may be the same.
07:54So from Gudang Garam, who built the infrastructure at the airport,
07:57and now built Jalantol,
07:59we haven't seen how big the contribution is
08:01for their transportation.
08:02Okay. From the technical side,
08:04let's go straight to Gudang Garam.
08:06Now it's closed.
08:07Weakening deeper, at 2.03%, at 14,500 rupiah per share.
08:12Your analysis for Gudang Garam,
08:14has it been sold out?
08:15Or is there a potential for strengthening?
08:17At least in the short term.
08:19Yes, if you look at the sales,
08:21it's been happening since early July 2024.
08:24Because the stock has entered the oversold,
08:27but it hasn't gone up.
08:28It was able to go up at the end of July,
08:31but it went back to oversold again until now.
08:33And if we look at the movement itself,
08:35there is a support area at 14,500,
08:3814,500 to 14,300,
08:4114,325 to 14,500.
08:44So if it can hold up to 14,300 tomorrow,
08:47there is a potential to hold up to 1,000 first.
08:49But if it fails to hold up to 14,300,
08:52there is a potential for Gudang Garam to go up and down
08:55according to its decline,
08:56closest to 13,875 and 13,025.
08:59This is a bit worrying,
09:00because the trend is still quite strong,
09:01it has been playing below the lower-bollinger band.
09:04It hasn't been recommended yet, right?
09:07It's better if it can rebound and hold up to 14,325,
09:12or if it goes back to 14,650 tomorrow.
09:15Because if it doesn't go back up,
09:18the trend may still continue
09:21to touch 13,875 and 13,025.
09:25Okay, from Gudang Garam,
09:26let's go straight to HMSP, sir.
09:28Today also a deep correction,
09:303.01%, 6.45%.
09:32The lowest intraday was 6.40%.
09:34What is your analysis for HMSP?
09:37HMSP is smoother,
09:38because the support is not too far,
09:40as long as it maintains above 600,
09:42it is at 600 and 620.
09:44But if it breaks at 600,
09:46this is a bit worrying.
09:47Because if we look at the movement,
09:49actually the closing at 640
09:51is like at the end of October 2011,
09:56the layout is the same.
09:58So it should be quite cheap
10:00with the current movement.
10:01But indeed the supply trend
10:03may still continue.
10:04This is a bit worrying
10:05if the HMSP breaks below 600 and 620.
10:08It can continue to 520 and 560.
10:11Okay, today's closing, 6.45%,
10:13weakening at 3.01%.
10:15HMSP and Gudang Garam are more
10:17tenacious in the last 10 years.
10:20Analysis in a fundamental and technical way,
10:22and again, the decision of the investment
10:24is still in the hands of the supplier, IDF Channel.
10:31For more information, visit www.idf.gov.uk