IHSG menguat tipis 0,05% ke 7.835,99 di sesi I Rabu (18/9). IHSG kembali menembus level New ATH intraday di 7.879. Sektor kesehatan +1,15% HEAL +3,20%. Sektor properti +0,99% BSDE +4,88%. Sektor perindustrian +0,55% ASII +2,96% dan sentuh level tertinggi 3 bulan penopang terbesar IHSG di 6,6 indeks poin. Sektor teknologi -2,02 GOTO -4,62%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going on today and we remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 at 8788.723 as shown on your television screen and later.
00:22We will also invite the CEO of Akella Trading System. Mr. Hari, good afternoon. How are you?
00:32Good afternoon, Mr. Adit. How are you, sir?
00:36Thank you, Mr. Hari, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel. Today, Indekargasam Gabungan's strength is at its peak after reaching the highest intraday at 7879.044.
00:49Then, the latest information, Bank Indonesia is expected to cut the 25 basis points to 6%.
00:56But, this sentiment does not seem to have a significant impact on Indekargasam Gabungan, where the current position of Indekargasam Gabungan is more likely to be fluctuating and more likely to be graphless at 7832.
01:14What is your analysis, Mr. Hari?
01:17Because the strengthening of IHSG has been going on, if we look at it, it has been going on since the beginning of August until now, relatively without correction.
01:32Because of that, when there is a very crucial event where the FED will start to cut the basis points,
01:47before that, the FED only stayed at 525.550, but this is the beginning, the FED will start to enter the cycle of cutting the basis points.
02:04And there is a difference between expectation and reality.
02:12The current expectation is that the FED will cut 50 basis points.
02:19From the FED Fund Futures Market, we see that the expectation is 61% probability that the FED will cut 50 basis points.
02:29Meanwhile, only 39%, not up to 40%, who expect the cut is only 25%.
02:38What is the decision like? It depends on the policy of the FED later tonight.
02:42If what happens is actually 25%, then there is a risk of market disappointment and stocks that have moved up quite a lot will experience what is called profit taking.
03:00However, if there is a profit taking, then the opportunity is that the IHSG may experience a pullback, but it won't last long.
03:13Because after that, it will continue the rally again. Why?
03:17Because later in November, the FED will cut the basis points again.
03:22Likewise, later in December, the FED will gradually cut the basis points again.
03:26Then we will enter 2025.
03:30Until mid-2025, we will wait.
03:35Later tonight, there will be a summary of economic projection.
03:39The FED's target, the FED Fund Futures, until mid-2025, what will it be like?
03:45It means that it is not focused on some of the basis points that have been cut, but what is the prospect for the future?
03:52But when the basis points are cut, but then the FED will be aggressive, does this give a positive direction, sir?
04:04Yes, but still, what is called profit taking can happen, sir.
04:10Remember that this has been anticipated for a long time.
04:15So, what happens is buying on rumors, selling on the news.
04:19It's usually like that.
04:22So, before the question arises, people have rallied first, the news came out, profit taking happened first.
04:29But I quote the word profit taking, because this won't happen just once, sir.
04:36It will continue. The FED's target is still far away.
04:40The space to plant the flower is still very large.
04:42My expectation is that it will stop planting the flower when the flower is already normal in the range of Rp275,000-Rp300,000.
04:52But Rp275,000-Rp300,000, when can it be? It can be in 2025, it can be in 2026.
04:58Okay. Related to this position and various possibilities, where is the direction of the movement of the Samkabungan family?
05:04Short-term, medium-term, sir? Support and resistance?
05:07Well, let's see.
05:10All these bullies actually happened because, again, the anticipation that the FED will plant the flower.
05:19Likewise, BI is in a hurry to plant the flower as an anticipation.
05:27Well, because of that, there is a bull market.
05:30The current support is at Rp7,726,000.
05:36And the next support is at Rp7,546,000.
05:41Well, since this has passed, so it's already ATH,
05:47it means that the resistance is already above the current highest point.
05:55So, the current highest point is at Rp7,879,000.
06:01If it passes again, it means that it can reach Rp7,970,000.
06:09My expectation is that it can even pass the level of Rp8,000,000 by the end of the year.
06:15Okay.
06:17In the midst of the strengthening of the Samkabungan family, some stocks today also become supporters, sir.
06:24We go to Astra International first, sir.
06:27It's been quite a long time since Astra International has experienced significant strength.
06:33Today, 5,250 closures, the highest is 5,275.
06:37The highest level of intraday for the last three months.
06:40How do you see the expectation of the strengthening of the ISE so far?
06:45Is this also related?
06:46Still with the closure of the Bunga family, the position of the lending will also decline.
06:53And the technical position for the ISE.
06:57Yes, that's right.
06:59Astra is one of the stocks that is very sensitive to the Bunga family.
07:06When the Bunga family falls, then automatically, our motor vehicle fees if we buy a car,
07:13the interest becomes lighter, sir.
07:17And this is positive for Astra.
07:20And technically, if we look at it, starting from May 2024 until now,
07:27Astra has formed a very interesting pattern.
07:31So, if I start to draw, this is a pattern of cut and handle in classical technical analysis like that.
07:41And this has the potential for a rally when it breaks.
07:47Now, it has broken. This resistance has been broken today.
07:51So, 5,225 resistance has passed, Mr. Dave.
07:54So, the potential for this rally is big, Astra.
07:59Because of that, later in the election, one of the things I put in is Astra.
08:06Okay.
08:08The support and resistance may be short-term, right?
08:11Okay.
08:13The support is at 5,125.
08:17The second support is at 5,000.
08:20This is a very strong support at 5,000.
08:22The resistance is at 5,425.
08:31Okay.
08:33The target is until the end of the year, sir?
08:34Yes.
08:36The target until the end of the year is the first target.
08:41The first target is 5,600.
08:44If 5,600 is achieved, then 5,425 is the resistance that has been broken.
08:50So, our first target, the opportunity to reach 5,600 is very big.
08:54And then, if it still passes, then 5,700 is very easy to achieve.
09:00Okay.
09:02That was the analysis for Astra International,
09:04which today seems to be the biggest supporter for the Samkabungan family.