IHSG jatuh di sesi I Selasa (3/9) turun 0,73% ke level 7.638,232. IHSG tak mampu untuk bertahan di level psikologis 7.700. IDX-Cyclic -4,44%, IDX-Techno -3,06%, dan IDX-Infra -0,93. Dari sisi saham, BMRI jadi pemberat terbesar IHSG mencapai 9,3 indeks poin. Sementara saham BUMI melawan arus melaju diatas 6% sentuh level tertinggi 3 bulan.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and we hope you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp on 08.12.8788.723, as shown on the television screen later.
00:18And today we have been in touch through Zoom with Mr. Chris Aperlioni, the Chief Branch Manager of Capital Security.
00:26We will go straight to Mr. Chris, good afternoon, how are you, Mr. Chris?
00:29Yes, good afternoon, Mr. David.
00:32Thank you for your time on IDX Channel.
00:35Today, the Samkabungan family is on the verge of weakening.
00:39What is quite interesting is that this is the deepest weakness in recent times when the Samkabungan family has repeatedly touched the level of new ATH intraday, as well as from the highest coverage over time.
00:54The analysis of the weakness that occurred today and earlier also left a level of 7,600, Mr. Chris.
01:00Yes, if we look at it, the movement of ISK has increased significantly in August, where ISK had increased by almost 10% in August, from bottom to high.
01:12With a very significant increase in one month, it is reasonable if there is a correction.
01:18So, at the end of August, we have predicted that in September, ISK will tend to be red, tend to be corrected.
01:28Because historically, September-October is usually a month of correction for ISK.
01:37What is the next direction in the short and medium term for the Samkabungan family with the correction today?
01:43Okay, in September, it is possible, according to our prediction, ISK will tend to be corrected up to the support area, maybe in the 7,380s area.
01:55Only then, at the end of the year, there will be a return to the top.
02:02On September 18, investors are still waiting for the momentum.
02:07Will the FED cut the ISK according to market expectations or not?
02:13Or cut, but not according to market expectations, Mr. Chris?
02:17How do you see this momentum?
02:19Has the Samkabungan family already priced in first, so that some record and new records were created in the last few weeks?
02:26Now, when the FED decides to cut the ISK, even though according to market expectations,
02:32will the strengthening continue or the position of the Samkabungan family will be more tense first?
02:39Actually, before the FED decides to cut or not, there is a high possibility that there will be a correction first.
02:48Only then, when the FED decides to cut the ISK, the index can start to rise again.
02:57Because if we look at the data from the US, it is likely that it will be less good.
03:03So this can have a global impact, as well as to Indonesia.
03:07We can see from USD to IDR, the Rupiah has weakened again.
03:13So if we look at it, there is a high possibility that the ISK will be corrected first before the FED decides to cut the Sekubunga.
03:21Okay, after the announcement of the Sekubunga, the strengthening will continue.
03:25Then, what is the target? At least, maybe until the end of the year.
03:28At the end of the year, the target is still the same, around 7,700 to 7,800 for the ISK.
03:35Does this mean that the strengthening of the Sekubunga will be more limited, sir?
03:40Or will the range of movement be relatively narrow?
03:42Because the current position is not much different from the target you mentioned earlier.
03:47That's right, so maybe in September or October, we will see a correction first.
03:53So that the spread created by the ISK itself is quite wide, so it is quite interesting to trade again.
04:01Okay, in the middle of the Sekubunga, the pick-up shares seem to be selling quite massively from the pick-up banks.
04:09Then also the capitalization value of the REN shares is still the largest in the Indonesian stock market.
04:15I want to go to the pick-up banks, to the BNRI first, sir.
04:17Today, the pressure on the BNRI is quite deep.
04:21It even had a weakening of more than 2%.
04:24However, the level of 7,000 is still able to survive until now.
04:28Analysis for the BNRI.
04:30Yes, Mr. Mandiri, actually if we look at it, the movement is sideways.
04:35From the end of August yesterday, August 19 until now, the trend is still back and forth in the sideways area.
04:42So even today, the ISK is corrected to 0.9%, but if we look at it, Mr. Mandiri himself is only 1.39%.
04:51So it's not too significant for the decline of the ISK itself.
04:56If we look at the decline of the ISK itself, it tends to be more to the shares that recorded a very significant increase yesterday.
05:06This is also what makes the ISK do all-time high continuously.
05:12But for the pick-up banking, then the companies that have been in Alcum 45 for quite a long time,
05:22haven't felt a significant increase in the ISK.
05:32Your analysis and recommendation for the BNRI today.
05:36Yes, Mr. Mandiri, as our recommendation yesterday, the ISK tends to be corrected in September.
05:44So the possibility, Mr. Mandiri, if you want to enter the area below 7,000,
05:49in the range of 6,700-6,800 is quite an interesting area.
05:55From the BNRI, let's move on to the BBC.
05:58The BNRI is under the brand, the capitalization rate today is also quite deep at 0.97%,
06:05and has already left 10,300 and today again left 1,200 and closing at 10,175.
06:14Analysis or BBCA?
06:16Yes, the BCA looks quite interesting in the long run,
06:19but because yesterday the decline was only temporary and then it went up again because of the 10,300.
06:26So the spread above it is not too interesting,
06:29because maybe it only falls to 10,500 until the end of the year.
06:34For that, it's better when the BCA has a correction,
06:39maybe in the range of 9,800-9,700 is quite an interesting area to get a wider spread.
06:47In the short and medium term, where will it go for the potential to 9,800-9,700?
06:54What is the scenario like?
06:55Mr. Chris, did you say that before the Fed announced that the ISG will be corrected first,
07:01including the BBCA, is there a possibility to break through to the support level?
07:06Yes, if we look at the corrected ISG,
07:10the correlation with the increase in ISG by 10% is supported by the brand,
07:16which rose to 35% in August yesterday.
07:19So it is very likely that the correction of the ISG will mostly be on the Samsung,
07:29which is like this brand.
07:30So today it was corrected to 4.6%,
07:33which will be a burden on the ISG in September.
07:39So be careful for Samsung, which has risen quite significantly yesterday,
07:43there will probably be a deep enough correction in September.
07:47For the brand, where will it go with the potential correction?
07:53Yes, the brand with a chance to return to the FTSE market,
07:58this is likely to be corrected maybe in the 9,700-9,400 area,
08:07and while waiting for the FTSE, it will be sideways in those areas,
08:13and after the FTSE, there may be a correction,
08:16because the target has been achieved to enter the FTSE index.
08:22Does it mean that the opportunity to return to the 11,000s is still quite a long journey, Mr. Chris?
08:28To return to the 11,000s, I think it is quite difficult,
08:32because it is not supported by the good fundamentals at the moment.
08:37Okay, from the shares that have become a burden for the ISG,
08:41Samsung from the Bakri Group is also quite interesting today.
08:44We notice that Pak Chris, there is BUMI, there is BRMS,
08:47this has strengthened in recent times,
08:50even though the ISG is experiencing a fairly deep correction today,
08:54BUMI shares and BRMS seem to be still strong and still able to survive in the green zone.
09:01Let's go to BUMI first, Pak Chris,
09:03your analysis with the strength that occurred,
09:05103 and also managed to break through to the highest level in the last three months.
09:11Yes, BUMI is a coal mine,
09:13where other coal mines have experienced quite a rise in the past,
09:20and finally BUMI too, if we look at it,
09:23actually since August there has been a chance for an uptrend,
09:27it seems that the trend has started to be positive,
09:30and today it started to break in the 95th area,
09:33with a closing now at 98.
09:36So with the price of coal that is still strong,
09:39still quite good in the 130-140 area,
09:43this makes the shares of the M810-M810 coal mines still quite interesting at the moment.
09:50In addition, the correlation is usually when the ISG weakens,
09:55Samsung Bakri Group usually tends to strengthen.
09:59Today it happened.
10:02What is the recommendation, Pak, for the support and resistance for BUMI?
10:06Okay, the closest is at 94, because it breaks at 95,
10:10the support is now at 94, with the closest resistance is at area 106.
10:16Okay, is the same condition also for BRMS, Pak?
10:20Yes, it's the same for BRMS,
10:22because yesterday, when Bakri's group rose,
10:29one of the groups usually increased.
10:31Today, if we pay attention, there is ENRG, there is DEWA also experienced an increase.
10:36What is the recommendation for BRMS?
10:39BRMS support in area 163, resistance at 180, the recommendation is still good.
10:46Okay, closing today at 169, strengthening at 5.62%.
10:51And again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of the investors of Idea Channel.