IHSG jatuh 1,18% ke level 7.115,385, di sesi I Jumat (29/11). Tiga sektor dengan penurunan terdalam, IDX Techno 1,87% GOTO -2,78% dan MLPT -7,37%.IDX Energy -1,86%, ADRO masih jadi beban kembali anjlok 22,83% usai sentuh ARB di perdagangan Kamis. IDX Industry -1,05% ASII -1,46%.
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TVTranscript
00:00In this segment, we will review how the business has been going all day today,
00:09where the last week of the holiday, the share price index has again experienced a fairly deep correction and is getting closer to 7,100.
00:18And we remind you again, you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 08.12 at 87.88.723, as shown on the television screen later.
00:28And now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Yosep Gabitua, who is a Senior Analyst of Creative Trading System.
00:36Good evening, Mr. Yosep. How are you?
00:39Good evening, Mr. David. How are you?
00:41Thank you, Mr. Yosep, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:45But it looks like the news is not so good, sir.
00:48It came from the villagers. Today, the internal weakness continues and is already at the level of 7,100, Mr. Yosep.
00:58Before we review today's intraday technically, we will flashback, we will briefly review, Mr. Yosep,
01:05where the share price index has been corrected, sir, 10% from the highest level this year.
01:12How do you see the process or sequence of the technical movement of the share price index
01:19to reach the highest level of intraday for a long time, and then to be more depressed until today's trading?
01:28Yes, if we look at what makes the IASG finally depressed,
01:33whereas this year the IASG hit its highest level in September, at the end of the third quarter.
01:43So, if we look at what dominates the IASG to be depressed, it is the big bank shares,
01:50especially shares like BRI Bank, which is weak, if we look at the year-to-date, it is almost 25%.
01:58And what makes the BRI stock depressed, we can see in the transaction, it is very large.
02:04So, in my opinion, this is what makes the IASG tend to be depressed.
02:13Not only BRI, actually BCI is also outflow, but if we look at the last week, the biggest outflow is in the BRI Bank.
02:22That's why we need to pay attention to things like this, especially this is close to window dressing.
02:28Okay, the position of the IASG so far is still a massive sale, not a payosep, or is it already a bit depressed,
02:36compared to the sales action that was done in previous weeks?
02:41If for example, until now, if we look at the last two weeks, from November 18,
02:49the BRI was still sold for around Rp 2 trillion, even Rp 2.9 trillion,
02:54BCI was sold for Rp 1.3 trillion, Adaro for around Rp 500 billion.
02:58So, indeed, the sales action pressure from foreign investors has not subsided.
03:03That's why this may be a bit different from the window dressing phase,
03:07which usually happens in December, which this year is compared to the previous year.
03:13Because this year we are presented, this is the last day in November,
03:18usually window dressing is from December 1st to the end of December.
03:22This is the pressure from foreign sales is still big,
03:26that's why we need to choose wisely the stocks that we want to take advantage of the momentum of window dressing.
03:33Okay, but overall, you said earlier, since this November is the last day of trading,
03:40and we will enter trading at the beginning of December.
03:43From Mr. Yosep's point of view, every year November is more tense,
03:48with a 1% weakness today,
03:51does this confirm that the ISG will also be tense throughout November 2024?
03:58Sir, throughout December, perhaps.
04:00November, sir.
04:01Oh, throughout November.
04:03In November, for example, we see that since 2000,
04:10there are much more, there are 14 times the ISG was closed,
04:15experiencing a decline throughout November.
04:17So there is a pattern, but there is one pattern that is almost higher,
04:24the chance, the opportunity is in the pattern in December.
04:27Because in December, since 2000, 22 times the ISG has experienced a strength in December.
04:36So maybe that's the cycle.
04:40So November was made a little lower first,
04:43to be able to buy at a lower price,
04:45so that December can be like window dressing,
04:49can beautify the portfolio.
04:52Okay, but from your point of view, Mr. Yosep,
04:56how big is the window dressing opportunity in December this year,
04:59considering the global situation,
05:01which is still not on the side, especially from the domestic market?
05:05Yes.
05:06What is the chance for window dressing this year?
05:13Maybe we have to be more selective,
05:16if we look at the previous year,
05:19or two years ago,
05:21we still have more choices.
05:24So the foreign investors tend not to be too volatile,
05:32their transactions are not too massive buying or not too massive selling,
05:36it's just normal.
05:37But in this current period,
05:39the position is massive selling,
05:42so the transaction sales are really big.
05:44That's why I think we need to choose.
05:46For example, as Mr. David said,
05:48LQ45, which stock that experienced a decline,
05:55let's just see,
05:57the foreign investors don't sell too big,
06:01so the transaction sales of the foreign investors tend to be smaller.
06:04For example, like BRI,
06:05it's really under pressure,
06:07throughout this November, or year-to-date,
06:0925% weakness,
06:11but the transaction sales are still fast.
06:13That's why I don't choose BRI stock
06:16for the momentum of window dressing this year.
06:18Okay, Mr. Yosef, the conclusion is
06:20window dressing will still happen,
06:23then the weakness is the weakness for the investors to choose
06:28which stocks will be collected in the window dressing,
06:31but still pay attention to
06:33which stocks whose net sales are quite minimal.
06:37The next question is,
06:39from your analysis,
06:42which stocks are under pressure today
06:45for some big cap funds,
06:48which are not recommended,
06:50if we look at the foreign net sales
06:52that are not so massive to those funds.
06:54Please, Mr. Yosef.
06:56For the banks,
06:58I prefer BCA and BNI banks,
07:04if we look at the foreign stock sales.
07:08First, BCA's foreign stock sales
07:10are still quite large in the last two weeks,
07:14but if we look at the price of the stock,
07:17it tends to be more stagnant,
07:20experiencing a decrease too,
07:23but not as deep as others.
07:25The endurance is more resilient, right?
07:27The endurance is much better for BCA.
07:30So, in my opinion, BCA is more recommended
07:33and BNI banks too.
07:35BNI banks tend to be safer
07:37and the outflow from the investment tends to be smaller.
07:40Okay, let's go to BCA first.
07:42Mr. Yosef, what is your recommendation?
07:45Support and resistance,
07:47maybe buy or buy on weakness,
07:49at what level for BCA?
07:51For BCA,
07:53I am quite optimistic
07:56if at the current price,
07:59it is relatively safer
08:01if we want to take advantage of the momentum of Indodressing
08:04with support at IDR 9,700
08:06and hopefully the target can reach IDR 10,400.
08:11Yes, the closing today at IDR 10,000.
08:14No problem, sir, to enter next week.
08:17The support was at IDR 9,700.
08:21Okay, with the target price at IDR 10,400.
08:24Let's move to BNI, Mr. Yosef.
08:28Okay, for BNI,
08:31actually if we look at the price today,
08:35it is quite okay
08:38if we want to take advantage of the momentum to enter
08:41at the price of IDR 4,900, IDR 4,800.
08:45If it is given a little lower,
08:48I think it is better with the support
08:51that we can use at IDR 4,700
08:54and the profit target
08:57hopefully at the end of this year
09:00can be closed at IDR 5,300.
09:03Okay, for BNI, Mr. Mirsa,
09:05the support that can be observed,
09:07from IDR 4,900 to IDR 4,800,
09:10resistance up to IDR 5,300,
09:13the closing today at IDR 4,980.
09:15But overall, Mr. Yosef,
09:17technically, is it heavy enough, sir,
09:20for Samsung to fly the big cap back
09:23or at least not approaching the highest level
09:25that has been achieved before?
09:28The period is until the end of the year.
09:30If it's until the end of the year,
09:32I'm not too optimistic that it can happen,
09:35especially up to the highest level.
09:37But at least we take advantage of the discounts
09:41in November to get a cheaper price.
09:45Okay.
09:46There are already questions on our interactive WhatsApp.
09:48Mr. Inder from Bali asks,
09:50how much is the ideal price?
09:53Today, BMRI is experiencing the deepest correction.
09:55Mr. Yosef, has it been recommended to enter?
09:59For independent banks,
10:01this is actually quite okay.
10:03I mean, the sale of foreign investors
10:06is actually 11-12
10:08between independent banks and BNI banks.
10:10So it's okay for us
10:13to take advantage of the momentum of window dressing.
10:15That may be the support that needs to be paid attention to
10:20at IDR 5,900,
10:22with a target,
10:24I'm not too optimistic
10:26by looking at an outflow like this
10:28at IDR 6,700-6,800.
10:33That may be the closest target.
10:36Okay.
10:37The answer for Mr. Inder from Bali.
10:39Before we continue,
10:41Mr. Yosef,
10:42today, energy has become a burden, sir.
10:44Adaro is again experiencing a deep enough correction,
10:47although it has not yet had time to auto-reject below.
10:49Analysis and recommendations for Adaro
10:52in the midst of significant weakening
10:54that happened in the last two days, sir?
10:56For Adaro,
10:57first, it's like this.
10:58I mean, we need to pay attention to the fact that
11:00Adaro's corporate action is not just this one.
11:03They still have the next corporate action.
11:05First, they want to spin off
11:07their stone business at AADI.
11:10Then they also want PUPS.
11:12PUPS is like,
11:13maybe simply like copying pasta.
11:16Copying pasta from Adaro's investor to AADI.
11:19So, what they are doing here
11:21is very influential
11:23to their next corporate action.
11:25So, maybe it will be more protected.
11:28If I look at the momentum like this,
11:30the action will be more protected
11:33so that the impact is not too bad
11:37for the investors.
11:38Because if you look at the decline today,
11:41it means that all the dividends received
11:43have been used up by capital loss.
11:45To cover capital loss.
11:46Okay.
11:47So, what is the technique for Adaro?
11:49For Adaro itself,
11:51I am still quite optimistic
11:54that this stock can rebound.
11:56At least, it will return to the level at the beginning of the year.
12:02So, for the support,
12:07actually, this is beyond the support
12:09that I have observed before.
12:13At Rp 1,900,
12:14maybe the closest support is now.
12:16With the target,
12:18not too close to the opening level at the beginning of the year.
12:21Okay.
12:22For Adaro,
12:23but has it been recommended by all means,
12:25at least,
12:26or wait and see first?
12:27In short, sir?
12:30For those who are more brave,
12:32maybe they can buy Adaro directly
12:36at the beginning of next week.
12:37Okay.
12:38Adaro today became another burden
12:40from Samsung's various pickups.
12:42And again, the investment decision
12:44is still in the hands of IDX Channel.