IHSG +0,65% ke level 6.875,622 sesi I Selasa (18/2). IDX-Cyclic +1,73%, ERAA +12,73%. IDX-Health +1,64%, HEAL +8,78%. IDX-Industry +1,04%, UNTR +1,21%. Dari sisi saham, emiten BBRI jadi kontributor terbesar atas penguatan IHSG di 16,90 indeks poin. Saham BBRI menguat di tengah aksi borong asing Rp371,65 M di Senin.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review the trading path throughout today's broadcast.
00:12And we will remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 8788 3723, as shown on the television screen and later.
00:23And right now we are connected through Zoom with Mr. James Evan Tumpuan, Head Investment Specialist in Securities.
00:30We will be right back.
00:32Good evening, Mr. James. How are you?
00:34Good evening, Mr. David. How are you?
00:36Thank you, Mr. James, for taking the time to join us on IDX Channel.
00:39Today, the share price is more dominant in the green zone, Mr. James, but the fluctuation is also quite high.
00:46Intraday was able to break through to the 6,900 level.
00:49Then, the strength went to the limit.
00:53In fact, it was almost able to get back to the opening level in the first session this morning.
00:58At this time, it is trying to give resistance to the share price to experience strength again.
01:04What is your analysis and technical review of the fluctuation that has occurred throughout today's trading?
01:11Yes, actually, if we look at the historical data from last week,
01:14on February 7th, there was a deep correction.
01:19Yes, it seems to have made a gap down to even the lowest at 8,500 on February 11th.
01:26And, in fact, if we look at the technical moves in the last two days,
01:30yesterday, on Monday, it was quite significant, and today it is still slightly up in the intraday.
01:39Actually, it was a technical reversal to close the technical gap from the action that took place on February 7th yesterday.
01:48Now, if we look at the movement in the ISG, actually, if it can be closed at this time,
01:54it will soon enter the closing hours, if for example 6,850 to 6,890 can be closed,
02:01maybe in the future there will still be a pullback.
02:03But, if the closing is flat, at 6,830, 6,840, it looks like there will be a correction tomorrow.
02:12So, hopefully, the ISG is still closed, it can be above 6,870.
02:18Hopefully, we can see something like that.
02:20For the future, there may be a recovery again.
02:22Okay, from the sentiment side, it looks quite quiet, sir.
02:26The US stock market is closed.
02:27Then, from the global side, it is also minimal.
02:30But, what is also interesting from the domestic side is related to the DHI regulation, sir.
02:33There is a new release, then there is a new change related to several subsidies,
02:40meaning 100% is kept, I mean, not held, in the Indonesian banks to provide the next economic strength.
02:53At the very least, the value of the exchange rate can be stable in the future.
02:56How do you see the position of this policy, then stored in several banks in Indonesia?
03:03Policy, then also the affected sector, Mr. James?
03:06Yes, hopefully, with the existence of the DHI policy, in fact, the banking sector has a liquidity requirement,
03:12even though in the next few years.
03:14So, with the increase of this liquidity, the impact is also for banks, which also increases the DPK,
03:22as well as the management funds, the liquidity of the banks will increase,
03:26and also, in fact, later, the hopes of the banks may be more, what is it called,
03:31the impact on how the products are stored,
03:35when the DHI enters the Indonesian banks,
03:38it also actually strengthens the products for hedging the balance, and so on.
03:46And also, maybe it is also affected by our national deficit,
03:52the hope is to reduce the pressure on the exchange rate of the Rupiah dollar,
03:59as we know, in the last month, the dollar has been strong enough,
04:06from December, even from October, the dollar has been strong against the Rupiah.
04:11And indeed, the impact is actually on the banks in the banking sector.
04:15Hopefully, it can be a positive factor for the increase in liquidity.
04:21Okay, we will try to review from the big cap banks,
04:26which indeed cannot be ignored,
04:28today it is still the main support for the strengthening of mutual funds,
04:32even though there are some price fluctuations,
04:36especially for the BBCA and the MRI,
04:38but it is still the main support for the strengthening of mutual funds.
04:42But I want to go to the BBRI first, Mr. James,
04:44today there is a significant increase in the latest data,
04:47foreign currencies have returned to the domestic market,
04:50and soon the stock is the big cap bank,
04:53and the highest purchase value in the last trade is the BBRI.
04:57What is your analysis for the BBRI, and also the recommendation?
05:00Okay, if we look at it, yesterday the net foreign buy was almost 1 trillion,
05:04and if we look at the BBRI,
05:08if we look at it now, the BBRI has tested the support area twice,
05:12level 3850, yes, 1380 is the area of support that was tested.
05:18And now if we look at it, it rebounded from the area of support level 3850,
05:23ending at level 120, for short-term targets,
05:26testing resistance at level 4380.
05:30That may be a key point, if 4380 is passed,
05:33this will be a sign that the BBRI can continue to strengthen in the future.
05:39Because if we look at it, from December, it looks like 4380 to 4400,
05:43so the resistance level is quite strong, for it to be passed.
05:47What is actually the attraction for foreign investors
05:52for today, or in the last trade,
05:55to enter more into the BBRI stock, Mr. James?
05:58Yes, maybe if we look at it overall,
06:01for some BUMN stocks, BUMN banks,
06:06the BBRI, in terms of valuation, is already quite cheap.
06:10In terms of valuation, it's already quite cheap, so actually this is the momentum when,
06:13if we look at it historically, from the last year,
06:17the BBRI was actually still at level 6200,
06:20and indeed at that time it was already quite close to the discount, 30-40%.
06:24So it looks like the profit-taking action of foreign investors
06:28has also slowly ended.
06:32So the impact is like that, and also,
06:34if we look at it, other sentiments,
06:37such as the North Sea, and others,
06:40also have an impact on the movement of the BBRI in the future.
06:44Okay, from the BBRI, we move to the BNI,
06:47and coincidentally, it also enters the list of our company subjects for today.
06:52The total funds prepared for buyback has been increased from IDR 905 billion
06:57to IDR 1.5 billion.
06:59How do you see it? In the middle, the sentiment is growing,
07:01the dividend potential for BBNI is also increasing significantly.
07:05Intraday, IDR 4,750 billion,
07:07and hopefully this will be maintained to be the highest intraday
07:11at the end of the second session today.
07:13Yes, if we look at the last three days,
07:16Mr. David and friends from X Channel,
07:18it has increased by 10%.
07:20From the 14th of February, Friday,
07:22the BBNI dividend has increased by 10%,
07:24which is quite significant.
07:26It is possible that in the next few days,
07:30there will be a potential correction to the level of IDR 4,680 billion,
07:34and then continue to go back to the level of IDR 5,175 billion.
07:38IDR 5,175 billion is a target that
07:42BBNI must reach first for a reversal,
07:45because when IDR 5,175 billion is penetrated,
07:47it can potentially form a double bottom reversal pattern
07:50in the Bank of Indonesia.
07:52So, those levels must be maintained,
07:55and now there is a potential for a reversal.
07:57It is currently reversing from the lowest level,
08:00at the level of IDR 4,070 billion,
08:02on the 12th of February yesterday.
08:05But before IDR 5,100 billion,
08:08the achievement today is IDR 4,750 billion.
08:10How much resistance must be penetrated first for BBNI?
08:14Okay, before IDR 5,100 billion,
08:16and it creates a double bottom pattern,
08:18the previous key point is at the level of IDR 4,880 billion
08:22to the level of IDR 4,900 billion,
08:24which must be maintained in the next week
08:26for BBNI's reversal.
08:30Before IDR 5,175 billion,
08:32it is at the level of IDR 4,880 billion to the level of IDR 4,900 billion
08:35for the closest resistance.
08:37Okay, today's closing at IDR 4,750 billion,
08:39significantly strengthened at 3.94%.
08:42We move to BMRI, Mr. James.
08:45Today, the fluctuation is also quite high.
08:47It was pulled to the red zone earlier,
08:49to IDR 5,375 billion,
08:51then back to the green zone,
08:53to IDR 5,450 billion.
08:55The note is that BMRI has experienced a significant increase
08:58and has been strong,
09:00standing above the level of IDR 5,000 billion again,
09:03at IDR 5,400 billion even today.
09:05Yes, so if we look at the last minute,
09:07exactly from the 11th of February,
09:10Bang Mandiri has increased by almost 15-16%,
09:14if we look at it from yesterday,
09:17if we look at the 11th of February,
09:19the decline is quite deep,
09:21up to the support level at IDR 4,700 billion.
09:23If we look at it now,
09:25for Bang Mandiri,
09:27there are still small gaps that need to be closed
09:30for the movement of Bang Mandiri,
09:32where the closest is at IDR 5,625 billion.
09:37And after that, the next is at IDR 6,000 billion.
09:40So the closest I see is still at IDR 5,625 billion,
09:43but for the next 1-2 days,
09:46if we look at today's closing in Poladoji,
09:49there may be a correction first,
09:51because the increase has happened
09:53from the 11th to the 18th,
09:56Bang Mandiri's movement has increased
09:58for almost 6 consecutive days.
10:00So there is a possibility that tomorrow
10:02there will be a potential correction first,
10:04and then the next pull will be at IDR 5,600 billion.
10:08Yes, with a significant drop
10:10at IDR 4,880 billion, Mr. James.
10:14Then now it's at IDR 5,400 billion.
10:16Has this changed the pattern
10:18from the movement to the MRI?
10:20At least not for the short term.
10:22Okay, for the short term,
10:24in terms of the minor trend,
10:27it has actually started a reversal.
10:29But in terms of the big picture,
10:31in terms of the primary trend,
10:33it's still a downtrend since September.
10:36But at least there is a reversal pattern
10:39that shows that Bang Mandiri
10:41has started to return to the IDR 5,500 level.
10:45So there is still a potential for a reversal.
10:48Okay.
10:49From Bang Himbara's bank,
10:51we turn to BBCA, Sir.
10:53It's incomplete, I feel,
10:55if we don't review BBCA.
10:57Today it's back to 0.27 to IDR 9,300.
11:00Today it's back to IDR 9,575.
11:03Analysis and your recommendation,
11:05is there a profit taking for BBCA
11:07after it touched IDR 9,575?
11:10Yes, okay, if we look at it,
11:12BBCA's pattern is different from
11:14some other banks.
11:16In other banks, there is a reversal pattern.
11:19If we look at it,
11:21from July 7 to July 13,
11:23the pattern is more consolidated
11:25at level 8.950 to 9.325.
11:28It's consolidated at that level.
11:30Today it's back to IDR 9,575.
11:33And it's closing at IDR 9,325-9,300.
11:37Maybe for now, for the future,
11:39we are still waiting for some
11:41future candles to reverse
11:43at least the point at IDR 9,900
11:46to make BBCA more
11:49prone to reverse.
11:50So for now, maybe in the next 1-2 days,
11:53it's in the range of IDR 9,225
11:56to IDR 9,550 in the next 1-2 days.
12:01Okay, analysis and recommendations
12:03from the BBCA investors,
12:05who are today's sponsors
12:07and at the same time,
12:09the burden for the mutual fund.
12:11And hopefully it can be a reference.
12:13And again, the investment decision
12:15is still in the hands of the IDR channel investors.
12:17Mr. James, we will stop for a while.
12:19Later we will see what Samsung has chosen
12:21to recommend and at the same time
12:23update the closing of trading
12:25We will be back shortly.