IHSG -0,82% ke 7.403,56 di sesi I Kamis (12/12). Sektor teknologi -1,04%. Sektor keuangan -0,97%. Sektor infrastruktur -0,76%. Sektor perindustrian -0,69%. Saham Big Caps jadi pemberat utama, BBCA menekan 11,37 poin, BMRI 10,99 poin, BBRI 9,11 poin. Selanjutnya TLKM 7,91 poin, ASII 6,53 poin, GOTO 4,53 poin, BBNI 4,04 poin dan ADRO 1,82 poin.
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TVTranscript
00:00Game Plus Arcade, available only on NCTE Plus Super App.
00:04Play it now!
00:31We are now in Zoom with Mr. Kiswoyo,
00:34Head of Investment, Awasena Abipraya Investama.
00:38Let's have a chat with him.
00:39Good afternoon, Mr. Kiswoyo. How are you?
00:42Good afternoon.
00:44Thank you for your time, Mr. Kiswoyo.
00:47Mr. Kiswoyo, today Samkabungan has undergone a deep correction.
00:51Mr. D, 1% of IHSG has been traded at level 7,300.
00:57What is your analysis?
00:59Is the correction purely profit-taking?
01:02Because in the last few days,
01:04Samkabungan's index has weakened significantly.
01:06Even a few days ago,
01:08it tried to approach the level of 7,500.
01:13That's right, because IHSG's current range is
01:17psychological level is below 7,000, above 7,500.
01:20The middle line is 7,250.
01:22So, the current range is 7,250 to 7,500.
01:27Indeed, according to our calculations,
01:30IHSG will close between 7,500 to 7,600 at the end of the year.
01:35So, it's still early.
01:37There are still three weeks left.
01:39So, it's already close to 7,500.
01:42Maybe it's normal for the trend to decline,
01:44but there's no need to worry.
01:46Because December is the best month for IHSG,
01:49from 1999 to last year.
01:55December is only twice as red.
01:58So, December is the best month for IHSG.
02:00Moreover, last month, we were down by 6% or more.
02:03So, I'm not afraid for IHSG.
02:08So, maybe IHSG will happen this month.
02:13Alright.
02:14What is the support limit that needs to be monitored
02:16with the internal pressure that happened again today?
02:207,250.
02:25Hello.
02:28Hello, Mr. Keisoyo.
02:29The level is 7,250.
02:30Yes.
02:317,250, right?
02:32Yes.
02:33The level is super high.
02:34Yes, it's 7,250.
02:35Okay.
02:36Today's closing is at 7,389.
02:39In today's trade,
02:40from global and Asia,
02:42the average is experiencing an increase.
02:43Responding to the US PCE inflation data,
02:46it experienced a slight increase,
02:48but in line with market expectations.
02:50Even though the movement from inflation
02:52to the devaluation continues to increase.
02:56Asia, even in the US PCE, recorded a record.
02:59The conditions are different for the domestic market.
03:02Is it purely from a technical point of view
03:04or maybe there are other factors, sir?
03:08If we look at it from a technical point of view,
03:10we are already approaching the end of the year target,
03:12which is 7,500 to 7,600.
03:14So, the correction is a healthy correction.
03:17But maybe when we get closer to the 7,250 level,
03:20it will go up again to 7,500 to 7,600.
03:25The exchange rate factor,
03:26which has returned to 15,900,
03:30Mr. Kisoyo,
03:31does this also burden the ISG movement, sir?
03:35The rupee is actually only a small factor.
03:39But indeed,
03:40if we look at Indonesia's economic growth,
03:42this is what becomes the reference for the ISG.
03:45Because the ISG is a representation
03:47of Indonesia's economic growth in the next six months.
03:49So, if we are still optimistic
03:51about our economic growth in the next six months,
03:53the ISG should still rise or grow.
03:57Okay, Mr. Kisoyo.
03:58Today, the shares that have become a burden
04:00for the domestic market,
04:02the BICAP shares,
04:03the Langanan shares,
04:05which are quite active or quite attractive
04:09when we look at the Indonesian momentum
04:13that occurs every December, every year.
04:16How do you see this position?
04:19Strengthening, then reversing,
04:21a significant weakness for the BICAP shares
04:24in the Indonesian Fed.
04:27Very interesting.
04:28Because this is an opportunity to buy.
04:30For example, BRI, BCA, Mandiri, BBNI, Astra Telekom,
04:35they have also fallen quite deep,
04:39so it's interesting to buy.
04:41Especially in terms of window trading,
04:43this is something that is very interesting in my opinion.
04:46We go to BBRI first, Mr. Kisoyo.
04:48Today, it fell quite deep, 2.74%
04:50in the 4-2-60 analysis
04:53and your recommendation for BBRI.
04:56BBRI is interesting
04:57because I see this is actually
04:59one of the opportunities for the stock market
05:00to experience window trading.
05:03It should be moving above 5,000,
05:06for BBRI actually,
05:07until the end of this month.
05:09So, especially with the current price,
05:12this is very interesting, I see.
05:16What is the support and resistance?
05:20The initial resistance is actually 5,000.
05:22If the support is,
05:24so there was a level 4,200,
05:26but if 5,000 falls,
05:28maybe it will go to 5,500.
05:30Moreover, this is one of the,
05:31I said earlier that this is an interesting METAN,
05:33because I said this METAN
05:35is owned by many fund managers.
05:37Moreover, the price is still lower
05:39compared to the price at the end of last year.
05:44So, the possibility of window trading
05:46will be very large for this BBRI.
05:49So, I said above 5,500,
05:51hopefully it can be achieved before the end of this month.
05:54Okay, it seems at the same time,
05:55answering the question
05:56from Mr. Akas Mudin from MEDAN,
05:58who just entered our interactive WhatsApp,
06:00asking where the BBRI stock is heading.
06:02If compared to other big cap banks,
06:04it seems that the BBRI has the deepest pressure.
06:06Mr. Kiswoyo.
06:09That's right, because this is related to the issue,
06:11there used to be a lot of title issues,
06:13then later there was an issue about the NPL being deleted.
06:16But I see, yes, there seems to be no problem
06:18if it is seen that the NPL of the BBRI is still maintained.
06:21And don't forget,
06:23BBRI is the most profitable bank in Indonesia.
06:26So, if you look at the total banks in Indonesia,
06:28the biggest profit is the BBRI.
06:30Then, overall,
06:32the net interest margin,
06:36that is, between the highest deposit ratio
06:39and the lowest credit ratio,
06:41is very high, very large.
06:43Including the BBRI, the net interest margin is quite high.
06:45In fact, this bank in Indonesia
06:47has one of the highest net interest margin in the world.
06:49So, this is the most profitable bank in the world, actually.
06:52And the BBRI is good at micro.
06:54So, it's actually safer,
06:57because it generates small but a lot of credit.
06:59So, if there is one problem,
07:00the effect is very small.
07:02It's different from a corporate independent bank.
07:05So, for example,
07:06a corporate independent bank consists of 500 corporations.
07:09If there is one collaboration,
07:11there may be a surge.
07:12But for BBRI, it can't be 500.
07:14Because of the micro credit,
07:15maybe it can be its debt.
07:17The debt of BBRI may reach
07:1910, 20, 30 million people.
07:22If there is one collaboration,
07:23the effect is very small.
07:25Okay, for BBRI.
07:27We move to BMRI, sir.
07:28Coincidentally, there is a question on our interactive WhatsApp.
07:31Mr. Bahri from Jakarta.
07:33Thank you for joining us.
07:34Stuck at 6,700, Mr. Kisoyol.
07:36Let's go to technical details.
07:40BBRI is actually interesting.
07:42If I look at the graphic,
07:45it is supported at 6,000.
07:48After it is supported at 6,000,
07:50if it can break above 6,500,
07:54it will go straight to 7,000 to 7,500.
07:56So the current strong resistance is at 6,500.
08:00And 6,000 should be the strong support of BBRI.
08:03It's an independent bank.
08:04Okay, 6,700 stuck in the hole only?
08:09In the hole only.
08:10Actually, it can still go up.
08:11Moreover, the face price next year can be above 8,500.
08:15Okay.
08:16From BMRI, we move to BBNI, sir.
08:18Where BBNI, at the closing of the second session today,
08:22is closed at the level of 4,880.
08:25Stuck at 4,900.
08:27Actually, the range is not far.
08:29Analysis and recommendations for BBNI.
08:33BBNI.
08:34If you look at BBNI, the support is at the strong level.
08:38The support is still at 4,500.
08:40But the closest is 4,750.
08:43The resistance is 5,000 first.
08:45After 5,000 is the level of 5,500.
08:47So if it can break above 5,000 and close above 5,000,
08:51it will go to 5,500 to 6,000.
08:54Indeed, from the perspective of BBNI,
08:56BBNI is the cheapest.
08:57Compared to the other three major banks.
09:00Okay, analysis from several pick-up banks
09:02that today became heavy.
09:04BBNI, 4,880, 3,84,
09:07and at the same time, Mr. Bahri from Jakarta.
09:10From the bank, sir, we move to Energi, sir.
09:14For a fairly phenomenal stock,
09:16which has just been recorded in the Indonesian FIQ,
09:19auto-rechecked several times.
09:21Then today is the second day.
09:22Finally, AADI has undergone a fairly deep correction.
09:259,200.
09:26And coincidentally, there is also an input question
09:28on our interactive WhatsApp.
09:30AADI shares continue to fall
09:32after experiencing multiple auto-rejects.
09:35How is this?
09:36The future direction and potential for AADI.
09:41I once said that
09:43AADI is because there is PUPS.
09:45With PUPS, it means that Aadhaar Realty is almost released.
09:49So if all PUPS are released,
09:51the initial IPO is 10%.
09:53The remaining 90% must be kept by Aadhaar Realty.
09:55But with PUPS, if everything is released,
09:57it means that Aadhaar Realty will no longer own AADI.
10:00It means that there is no business call,
10:04but there is still an ADMR calling call.
10:07It turns out that if all PUPS are released,
10:10it means that the market will increase.
10:12From only 10% of the IPO yesterday,
10:14it was increased by about 47%.
10:16So it means that more than 50% will be in the hands of retail or society.
10:20This will create quite a lot of sales pressure.
10:23Technically, if it is below 10,000,
10:27it will continue to go down.
10:29So, the retail market,
10:31if PUPS is included, they can reach the 6,000 area.
10:34If I get 6,000 in the market,
10:37and the market price is 11,000,
10:39I will immediately sell it.
10:40Moreover, if the profit is more than 50%
10:43in less than five days of work,
10:45I will definitely sell it.
10:46So I see that the sales pressure will be very big.
10:49Indeed, if the PUPS pair is cheap,
10:52the PUPS is still below 2,000.
10:54But remember that in the past,
10:56the coal mining business in Adaro,
10:59it was Adaro himself who relied on this business call.
11:03The PUPS is very rare to reach 2,000.
11:05It usually plays between 0.5 to 1,000.
11:08So it means that this ADMR,
11:11maybe if it follows the old Adaro trend,
11:13it will play at PUPS 0.5 to 1,000.
11:16Which means that PUPS 1 is below 6,000.
11:19That's why I said that if the correction keeps going down,
11:22it can go down to below 6,000.
11:25Okay.
11:26From the target side, sir,
11:27there are also many who recommend that the target is quite high.
11:30There are those at 12,000, 15,000.
11:32There are even some securities with a target of 30,000.
11:36In short, sir.
11:38In the long run, fundamentally it can be.
11:40But in the short run, there is a sales pressure
11:43from the PUPS investors.
11:46Yes.
11:47So I see that until the PUPS sales pressure is over,
11:50maybe just now,
11:52usually if it's going down,
11:54it will be sideways first.
11:56After the sideways,
11:57we will see if it will continue to go down again
11:59or continue to go down or go up.
12:01Like that.
12:02Okay.
12:03In the closing of the second session today,
12:04the ADI was closed and weakened again at 9,200.
12:07Pressed at 4.17%.
12:09And again, the investment decision
12:11is still in the hands of the ADI channel.
12:14Mr. Aki Soyo, we hold for the time being.
12:15Don't forget, we will be back.
12:16Later, we will just see
12:17what Samsung has recommended.
12:19And later we will update
12:20what the closing position of the trade is like
12:22in the second session today.
12:23And we will be back soon.