IHSG jatuh 0,73% ke 7.518,9 di sesi I, Jumat (1/11/2024). Sektor kesehatan -2,55% SILO -16,80%. Sektor konsumsi primer -2,18% INDF -3,62%. Sektor transportasi -2,1% ASSA -2,58%. Di sisi lain, saham bank Himbara melemah BBRI -1,87%, BMRI -1,49% dan BBNI -0,95% ditengah penantian rencana hapus utang UMKM oleh pemerintah.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment we will review how the trade is going throughout the day and we remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive on 08.12.8788.723 as shown on your TV screen.
00:22And right now we are connected through Zoom with Mr. Andri Zakaria Serega, founder of Citi S.A.M.
00:28We will go straight to him. Good afternoon, Mr. Andri. How are you?
00:32Good afternoon, Alhamdulillah. I'm fine.
00:35Mr. Andri, thank you for taking the time to be on IDX Channel. We are back on Jalan Libur trading at the end of the week.
00:42And today, we are experiencing a correction in your analysis for the movement of the Indekargasam Kabungan, especially in the last week, Mr. Andri.
00:52Yes, if you look at it, there are a lot of domestic sentiments.
00:56In the country, if you look at it, yesterday was the day of the rescue of the street tax.
01:02This is also a seismic speculation for the West Bank sector.
01:08So, if you look at it, this is a selling action by both banks.
01:12And secondly, there is also an earnings report that is being anticipated.
01:16It is still on the rise, but actually not as good as the market expectations.
01:22Third, the foreign market is still aggressive.
01:26Net sales for 8 consecutive days until yesterday.
01:28So, the foreign market has now recorded 8 trillion for Samsung chip sales.
01:35Today, there is also a negative sentiment from the inflation rate, which is starting to increase above the market expectations.
01:43Because there was previously inflation for 5 consecutive months.
01:45So, from macroeconomics, from inflow to outflow, and also from the performance of WITEN, it can be seen that it has been priced.
01:54So, this is a selling trend in the market.
01:58And from the technical point of view, it can also be seen that this is still a PFSC.
02:01Indeed, our index should go to 7450 to 7330.
02:06Yes, for us to take the opportunity to buy Samsung chips.
02:14Okay, a projection for next week, Mr. Andri.
02:17Some important agendas will also be faced by investors.
02:21The closest is the election of the President of the United States.
02:24Then it will be followed by the meeting of The Fed in November.
02:28Yes, if you look at it, the market has already priced in.
02:32So, next week, they will do the selling action.
02:35They have also broadcasted the possibility of selling to see the selling pressure on Wall Street and also in Indonesia itself.
02:44Because the cycle is like that.
02:47So, usually, the market sells on rumors ahead of The Fed and also ahead of the PFSC.
02:53Because the PFSC now in America itself is a tough call.
02:57So, it means that it is equally strong.
02:59So, now the polling has shown that Kamala Harris is now leading compared to Trump.
03:03From around 10 to 11 polling.
03:05So, this raises concerns.
03:07Yes, it is possible that if Trump loses again, it is possible that there will be a dispute again,
03:11like the previous year, in 2016, which caused a controversy in the NATO.
03:18So, if you look at it from the cycle, there should be a little chaos in the US election next week.
03:26Maybe someone is not happy or not safe with the results.
03:31And also later on May 5th, along with May 5th,
03:35so at night there will be a press, but in the afternoon there will be GDP Indonesia.
03:38So, the GDP per capita economy is predicted to decline compared to the previous year.
03:42The previous prediction was 5-17% year-on-year.
03:46It is predicted to be 5.05%.
03:48So, I think the market will still sell off from May 3rd to May 5th.
03:54After that, it will buy back again, later ahead of The Fed.
03:56So, I think the worst is ahead of The Fed, which is likely to be cut at a diplomatic point.
04:03Mr. Andri, in some of the growing sentiments, especially in the next few weeks,
04:09you have also explained the direction of the movement of the Samkabungan stock market,
04:13and also some of the stocks that have become heavy.
04:17Foreign trade is still going on, especially from these banks.
04:21And it looks like today's focus is on Bang Himbara stocks, sir.
04:25BBCA is still strong, moving in the green zone.
04:28Even intraday today was able to strengthen above 1%.
04:31The conditions are different.
04:33For BBRI, intraday was able to break above 2%.
04:36BMRI was able to break above 1.87%.
04:38BBNI, BRIS, and BBTN are also under pressure.
04:42How do you see the position of these Samsung-based B-cap banks?
04:46Is there any kind of impact, sir?
04:50Because in the last few times, there have been quite a lot of negative sentiments.
04:56First, there is street tech.
04:58Then also the latest, the government will clear the debt of MSMEs and farmers.
05:05What is your analysis?
05:07Yes, globally, we are also affected from the outside.
05:12Street tech, banking, and we are the same.
05:16So, Samsung, BCA in particular.
05:18Even though it is different from Netbuy, but interestingly, the Netbuy is still decreasing.
05:23It's different from BRI.
05:25This year, the foreign net sale is Rp24 trillion.
05:28From January until now.
05:29So, that's why it's pushing.
05:31BRI's performance is still below 17% if we buy since January.
05:36While BCA is still below 10%.
05:38So, the best for the future performance right now is still accumulated by BCA.
05:44This also supports the index.
05:46So, in the future, it will go below Rp7,450.
05:50So, BCA will also be below its support yesterday at Rp10,150.
05:54So, right now, for us to sell, it will be below Rp10,150 again until Rp9,950.
06:01The same goes for BRI.
06:03It will probably go below Rp4,650 until there is a gap at Rp4,660.
06:09So, it's better to buy below Rp8,630.
06:12So, right now, it's better for us to buy for the future.
06:15Because it's possible that the index and the banking sector, especially the finance sector, is still in recession.
06:21It means that it will continue to decline.
06:23So, I think the issue about CPEX or WMKM has actually been discounted.
06:28It can be seen that the distribution market has been seen by foreigners who are still aggressive in selling.
06:32Especially BRI, BBI, and GBBN which are still lagging.
06:36Right now, it's still underperformed.
06:38It's underperformed in BCA and also in itself.
06:41So, if we want to buy, it's safer.
06:42So, it's safer to sell to the private sector, BCA, or the WMKM, or the BNR.
06:51What is the prospect related to this?
06:53Mr. Andri, in the fourth quarter or in the full year in 2024, for Samsung to bank this BKEP?
07:01Yes, for BKEP itself, it's the same as the index.
07:04The index, maybe the first downgrade for the index since February.
07:07Even though the index is now up to 79%.
07:10Yesterday, it was the highest.
07:11Maybe later in November, it will be the lowest.
07:14Or early December, it will be the lowest.
07:18Actually, it's a bit limited.
07:19So, if I look at it, the market will be more focused on who will win in the U.S. market.
07:25Why?
07:27Because we see that if Trump wins, the mutual fund will be less trading.
07:30It will be negative for us from 2016 to 2020.
07:34But if Kamala Harris wins, the mutual fund will be strong again.
07:44So, the mutual fund will be strong.
07:46That means the weak currency.
07:47It's also not good for Samsung to bank the inflation issue.
07:51So, both of them, in the short term, will be more negative to Trump.
07:57If he wins, for Kamala Harris, the focus will be on Kamala Harris.
08:02So, for the index, the target is 8,800.
08:05The peak, the closing is still 7,550 for the end of December.
08:10Okay.
08:11So, the energy of the mutual fund will be the current price for the closing at the end of the year.
08:18That's all, David.
08:19Okay.
08:20Mr. Andri, we will try to review it again.
08:23Actually, you also mentioned it earlier.
08:25Related to financial activity in the third quarter of 2024.
08:29From some stocks, from some sectors.
08:32It seems that the stock movement in the last few days is more affected by the release.
08:38Overall, according to expectations, isn't it, sir?
08:41In the midst of the pressure from both global and domestic,
08:45the performance of some of the emittances that were recorded in the Indonesian Stock Exchange?
08:51Yes, if you look at it, actually, the performance of the emittances can't be reflected by the expectations of economic growth.
08:59Even if it slows down, we can see that the manufacturing sector is already affected by the automotive sector.
09:07So, it's already industrial, so it also means that this will be interesting.
09:11It means that the market expectations now, if you look at the current space that has been released,
09:15it means that it is still below the expectations of both banks.
09:18I personally prefer macro and technical and cycle compared to the fundamental economy.
09:26Okay.
09:27So, in terms of entertainment, the market has already priced in,
09:30plus the economy is now also slowing down even though there is no crisis,
09:34but at least it is much slower than in the first quarter.
09:37So, this is a boost to the market that is affected by the profit taking because there is no surprise.
09:41There is no surprise from the results of the financial report, which is good,
09:45especially in the net income margin, it is also seen that it is lower.
09:48Automatically, the expectations for dividends and for the next year are also likely to be lower than in 2024.
09:56So, this is also a boost to the market.
10:04Mr. Andri, let's move on to the other sector,
10:06besides discussing banks, especially the big cap bank,
10:09which is indeed a driver for the joint family.
10:12Sectorally, today there was also a rotation, Mr. Andri.
10:16The burden also came from the health sector after the previous day experienced a boost.
10:22It is quite interesting for the movement of some stocks in the health sector,
10:26especially from hospitals.
10:28There is Silo, Mr. Andri.
10:29Silo stocks today experienced a fairly deep correction at 17.87% in 3080.
10:37Your analysis and recommendations in the middle of the direction reversal for Silo
10:42after the end of October trading,
10:45this has experienced a significant increase before.
10:51Yes, in the health sector,
10:53last week there was a high increase,
10:56the last two days there was a rise because of the CPO wave.
10:59But it was only because of the 1,000 balance,
11:01so it was not the time for the rally to buy.
11:03It rose to be able to buy.
11:05So that's why it's normal for the sector,
11:07Silo should also be able to reach below 2,400,
11:122,900 up to 2,700 here,
11:15because of the percentage change.
11:16Because the previous highest was at 3,900,
11:24so the highest was only 3,700.
11:27So if it's technical, it's simple, it's distribution.
11:31So it's normal for today,
11:34usually it will reach below 2,700,
11:382,900 up to 2,700.
11:41So it will probably form a symmetrical triangle,
11:45so it's like the sector,
11:48be careful, the sector itself is not new low yet.
11:50So in the future, the sector head will be new low compared to this week.
11:54So it means that Silo and other companies like Mika,
11:56Hilton, and others will also experience a higher private taxing.
12:01Okay, analysis and recommendations from the health sector.
12:04There is Silo, which today suddenly experienced a fairly deep correction,
12:10above 70 percent,
12:11after experiencing a significant increase before.
12:14And again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of IDX Channel.