IHSG +0,09% ke 7.328,56 sesi I hari ini Rabu (13/11). Sektor teknologi +2,51% MLPT +19,9% GOTO +2,94%. Sektor barang baku naik +0,51% DAAZ +24,7% Sektor keuangan +0,15% ditopang BBRI +2% dam BMRI +1% bangkit dari level terendah 3 bulan. Sektor properti -1,37% PANI -3,48%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going throughout the day,
00:12where the strength of the Samkabungan industry is at a peak.
00:15However, the good news is that the support level of 7,300 is still able to be maintained.
00:20And we remind you again, you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 0812 8788 3723,
00:28as shown on your television screen later.
00:31And right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Rio Rizaldi, the founder of Galeri Saham.
00:36We will get right to it. Mr. Rio, good afternoon. How are you, sir?
00:39Good afternoon, Mr. David. I'm fine, sir.
00:41Thank you, Mr. Rio, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:45The Samkabungan price index throughout today's trade is going in the opposite direction, as you can see, Mr. Rio.
00:51The situation now is moving in the red zone, even though the level of 7,300 is still able to be maintained to this day.
00:59Your analysis?
01:00Yes, if we look at the flashback from around the beginning of the year,
01:04we can see that the level of 7,300 is a strong resistance of the IHSG.
01:10Since January, March, May, and July, the level of 7,300 is very difficult to break through.
01:19So, with the current situation, at a similar level, our index is testing this level of 7,300.
01:25However, what we need to pay attention to here is,
01:28if we use the Simple Moving Average MA200,
01:32basically, the level of 7,328 is the MA200 level.
01:38And indeed, in the last 3-4 days, our index was below that level.
01:43So, what we need to pay attention to now is the ability of the index to be able to withstand at least above 7,350.
01:51So, we see here there are two scenarios of IHSG moving range.
01:58So, if our index is able to withstand above 7,350,
02:03basically, the range of movement is around 7,350 to 7,600.
02:08That's the base case.
02:11However, if our index is unable to withstand above 7,350,
02:16even at the level of 7,300, it is already below MA200,
02:22then the range of movement is around 7,350 to 7,000.
02:29And what we need to pay attention to here is,
02:31at the end of June this year, our index left a gap area.
02:38So, the gap is around 6,961 to 6,992 before it goes to 7,000.
02:45So, that's a very strong level of support for IHSG.
02:49In the last quarter, Mr. Rio, the Index of Samkabungan, touched 7,100.
02:55In today's trading, IHSG seems to be able to withstand above 7,300,
03:02even though the strengthening position is more towards the limit here.
03:06How do you see the technical position during today's trading?
03:10With the ability to withstand above 7,300,
03:13is there any chance for the Index of Samkabungan,
03:18the percentage of strengthening will still be large,
03:21or the opportunity to pass below 7,300 is still quite open so far?
03:27Looking at the range of historical movement since the beginning of the year,
03:31the actual important level is actually at 7,350, Mr. David.
03:38So, with the combination of the previous resistance with the current MA200,
03:44basically, with the current conditions, with a slightly lagging closing,
03:50we see that the scenario is still moving in the lower range,
03:55which is 7,000 to 7,300 for some time in the future.
03:59So, we try to monitor in the next two days,
04:02if our index is unable to exceed the MA200,
04:06basically, we need to see a new range in the movement of IHSG,
04:107,350 to 7,000 as a range of movement, maybe for the next month.
04:17Okay, from the fundamental side, Mr. Rio,
04:20investors are still waiting for the release of US inflation data.
04:23What are the expectations?
04:25Yes, basically, what we need to know is that,
04:28the Fed is likely to gradually decrease the flow rate.
04:32However, with relatively strong economic data,
04:37basically, according to the flow rate, it is not as aggressive as expected in the beginning.
04:41So, people expect,
04:43last September, 50 basis points were cut,
04:47and people expect 50, 50, 50, more or less like that.
04:50But with the existing conditions, it tends to be slower, more relaxed, if you look at the decline.
04:55And this is also one of the challenges,
04:59that with the spread, the difference between the PI rate and the Fed rate,
05:02which is not too thick, quite thin,
05:05so it looks like the capital outflow is still tending to shake our business.
05:11More or less like that, Mr. David.
05:13Okay, from the fundamental, we switch to the sectoral today, Mr. Rio.
05:18Mr. Rio, even though finance is not leading in terms of sectoral movement,
05:23or in terms of capitalization, or we see from the stock market,
05:26the contribution is still quite large, sir.
05:29How do you see the foreign position, up to today's trade,
05:33for the Samsung Banking Picket?
05:35Is the sales or net sales still quite high,
05:39or is the sales still there,
05:41but the position or value has declined, Mr. Rio?
05:45Well, so if we look at some of the market movements,
05:50where it tends to experience weakness,
05:52and we also see the US Dollar IDR is relatively stable at the level of 15,600.
05:58The dollar is stronger compared to,
06:00let's say in October, at the level of 15,000 to 15,900.
06:04Indeed, there is still a tendency for outflow, sir.
06:06And it becomes a reasonable reason,
06:09that our banks are not going anywhere, why?
06:12Because basically, when there is an outflow,
06:14what is left is the big cap stock in the stock market,
06:19which is the big banks.
06:20So basically, if you look at the existing conditions,
06:23basically, outflow still has a tendency to occur.
06:28Especially with the inability to index back to the level of 7,350,
06:33basically, we will still see those things with their respective volatilities, sir.
06:40Okay, we will try to review the two stocks that are the supporters of the housing index today,
06:45from the Big Cap Banking, there is BBRI, then there is also BMRI.
06:49We go to BBRI first, Pario today, rebound for BBRI,
06:54rose from the lowest level in the last three months, Pario.
07:00Then the movement of BBRI stocks is also unstable,
07:04where the intraday rate was able to increase by more than 2%,
07:07but on the closing track, the strength is more limited.
07:10Analysis and recommendations for BBRI?
07:13Yes, basically, the rise in BBRI is very reasonable,
07:16because it has fallen a lot, even more than its peers.
07:22Basically, we see here that the rebound that occurs will tend to be limited,
07:26because basically, BBRI is a big bank stock that is below MA200.
07:33It means that in terms of trend, it is not really uptrend,
07:35while others are relatively okay, but it is experiencing a fairly massive sell-off.
07:41So basically, the strategy still tends to sell on strength,
07:45where the current resistance level for BBRI is around 4650,
07:53so try to monitor 4650, there is a possibility of selling pressure.
07:58And for support, as simple as we see the previous low in June this year,
08:04it is around 4250.
08:07So for BBRI, the short-term trading is still relatively okay,
08:12but for accumulation, it is better to wait at a lower level than the current level.
08:17Okay, good. Does it affect the target price from the end of the year?
08:22No, sir. With the movement of BBRI in the last few months?
08:26Yes, most likely, yes.
08:28Because if we look at September, the BBRI chart is already so good,
08:35but finally back to below the level of 5200 at that time.
08:40So basically, with the current conditions, the target price map is relatively different.
08:45In September-October, we can expect around 6000,
08:51but for now, the 4800 level may be the maximum in normal conditions for BBRI at this time.
09:02Okay, from BBRI we move to BMRI, sir.
09:05Today we also try to rise from the lowest intraday level in the last 3 months.
09:10The position is still far from the 7000 level. What is your analysis for BMRI?
09:15Yes, for BMRI, the decrease is not, so it can be said that if we say movement,
09:20then BBRI is more bearish than BMRI. BMRI moves more in a sideways range.
09:26For me, it's like that.
09:27It should be noted here that there is a fairly strong resistance level,
09:31which is closest to the level of 6700 to 6750,
09:36and the support level is more or less around 6200.
09:40So basically, that's the independent trading range at 6200 below and 6700 above.
09:46And as long as the market is still below the level of 7350,
09:52then the strategy for independent stocks or other big banks is more to short-term trading.
09:58Swing trading will be more favorable than long-term saving.
10:02Okay, but for long-term investment, is it better to increase the position, sir?
10:09For long-term investment, it's okay to increase the position, but when there is a correction,
10:13so if there is a rebound like this, it's better to sell on strength.
10:19For short-term investment, it will be wiser, sir.
10:23Okay, analysis from some of the big cap banks
10:26that today became the supporters of the mutual fund,
10:29and again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of the IDA channel.
10:33Mr. Ryo, we will be back soon,
10:35later we will try to review the options that you recommend,
10:38and at the same time update the closing of trading in the second session today.
10:42And we will be back soon.