Sentimen Global Membaik, IHSG Konsisten di Level 7.200
IHSG menguat 0,59% ke 7.237,248 di sesi I Jumat (9/8). Penguatan terbesar dari IDX Sektor Barang Baku +1,35% dengan AMMN berbalik menguat +4,25%, dari koreksi dalam 8,61% di Kamis. IDX Sektor Properti dan Real Estate +0,89% dengan CTRA +2,31%, WIKA +7,00%. IDX Sektor Infrastruktur +0,51% dengan JSMR +2,34%. IDX Sektor Keuangan +0,4%, dengan BBNI +1,99%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going all day today.
00:11After the weekend vacation, the conditions are a bit different.
00:14Previously, the index of the GASAM combined was more dominant in the red zone due to the profit-taking action.
00:20However, today, the growth rate continues.
00:23And we remind you that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive on 08.12.8788.723, as shown on your TV screen later.
00:33And today, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Hari Suwanda, CEO of Akilat Trading System.
00:39We will go straight to Mr. Hari. Good afternoon. How are you, sir?
00:44Good afternoon, Mr. David. Amazing, sir.
00:48Thank you, Mr. Hari, for your time on IDX Channel.
00:52Is it also amazing, Mr. Hari, the movement of the GASAM combined in the last few months?
00:57In June, it dropped to 6,700.
01:00Meanwhile, in the last few months, it dropped to 7,300.
01:03And it dropped again to 7,200.
01:10What is your analysis?
01:12This week is a super special week, actually.
01:17If we look at this week, the IHSG was hit on Monday.
01:23We remember it because of the Japan Carry Trade.
01:26It was affected by the negative impact of the Japan Yen Carry Trade.
01:31And it has been worse like this.
01:34But what happened?
01:36Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
01:40So, for the last four days, this has been successfully reclaimed.
01:45So, this decline, almost all of this decline, only the gap remains.
01:50Well, there's only a little bit left.
01:52This can be recovered again.
01:54So, if we look at it weekly, it appears to be a long leg doji like this.
02:01You can't see where the decline is.
02:04For the past week, it has been worse.
02:07And then it was reversed back to around the closure.
02:11Technically, this is bullish.
02:17And why is that?
02:20Because the chance of the Fed to cut ties is now almost certain.
02:27There's even a chance that they will cut 50 basis points.
02:31And next week, globally, we are waiting for the US inflation data.
02:38If the US inflation rate continues to decline,
02:42inflation is no longer at level 3, but already at level 2,
02:47down below 3%, then their chances of cutting ties,
02:52including 50 basis points, will be even greater.
02:55And this makes the dollar weak.
02:59So, what's even more exciting is that our rupiah is getting stronger.
03:05Because of that, with the strengthening of rupiah and then IHSG like this,
03:11then this is actually a healthy condition.
03:15So, it's bullish.
03:17Mr. Hari, when the Samkabungan index previously reached a new psychological level,
03:23this Samkabungan index, as a kind of treatment,
03:27several times passed through that level,
03:29but that level was not able to be maintained.
03:31But the conditions are different.
03:32It looks like it's at the level of 7,200.
03:34It immediately stepped on the gas, immediately jumped,
03:37and it looks like level 72 on the support side.
03:40Is it strong enough so far and the direction,
03:43especially for trading in the future, sir?
03:46Yes. So, we're starting to enter this trading range again.
03:52Because this trading range is trying to be broken, but it doesn't work.
03:56So, we're entering that level again.
03:59Between 7,200 to 7,354.
04:09So, between 7,200 to 7,354.
04:12This is our range for the next week.
04:16If this 7,354 manages to break out again,
04:20it's already at level 12.
04:22So, it's very bullish.
04:26In terms of year-to-date, Mr. Hari,
04:28the Samkabungan index so far is still at minus 0.22 percent,
04:32even though it has been strengthened in the last few days.
04:36Actually, how much resistance must be passed through,
04:38and maybe also maintained by the Samkabungan index,
04:41when in terms of year-to-date, it returns to positive again
04:45for the moving position of the Samkabungan index?
04:50So, as I mentioned earlier, the level is 7,354.
04:53This is the first one, 7,354.
04:577,354.
04:59Then there's another one at 7,396.
05:03And the last one is 7,454.
05:07Here it is. So, 7,354.
05:11Then there's another one at 7,454.
05:16This is the key.
05:18If these two manage to break out,
05:21it means it's over.
05:23There's no more resistance.
05:26Okay.
05:27In terms of the sectoral movement today,
05:30Mr. Hari,
05:31it seems that Barang Baku is leading the strengthening.
05:34When it was traded the day before,
05:36it actually experienced quite a deep correction
05:38and became a burden for the Samkabungan index.
05:41There's Aman Mineral, sir.
05:42Today, it's moving fast again,
05:44even though it doesn't seem to be enough to balance
05:47the position of the correction yesterday.
05:49The difference is quite thin.
05:50When on Thursday, Aman weakened above 8 percent.
05:53Today, it's closed and strengthened at 7.25 percent.
05:56Analysis there for Aman,
05:57which is back above the level of 11,000.
06:01Mr. Hari.
06:03In technical analysis,
06:05a pattern like this is known as harami.
06:10So, this is harami bullish.
06:12In terms of short-term, it's still bullish.
06:16But, Aman Mineral has several resistance
06:19that needs to be examined.
06:22The first one is here.
06:27This is the level of 12,450.
06:32In 12,450 and the previous high level,
06:41this is 11,950.
06:44So, 11,950 and 12,450
06:48are the resistance that needs to be examined
06:51if it can uptrend bullish again
06:56like the period until last May.
07:02So, this is the challenge in these two resistance, Mr. Dave.
07:06Okay.
07:07How do you see Aman's chance
07:09to touch the highest level again?
07:12At least until the end of the year, sir?
07:16Maybe there is still a chance.
07:18So, the key is what I said earlier, 11,950.
07:22Okay.
07:23Now, this is a short-term bullish.
07:25It's still short-term until 11,950.
07:28So, can we break the 11,950 challenge?
07:31Is it still recommended to enter with this position, sir?
07:33Or is the risk-profit ratio quite high?
07:35Is the chance of profit-taking high?
07:39Yes, there is a chance of profit-taking.
07:41Although, technically, this is a bullish-harami.
07:49Today's closing at 11,100 strengthens at 7.25%.
07:53And again, the investment decision
07:55is still in the hands of Pemirsa IDX Channel.
07:57We move on to TPIA, sir.
07:59Today, it still continues to strengthen.
08:01Although, the strengthening is at 1.45%.
08:05But, it looks like intraday.
08:07Today, it also breaks through the highest level again.
08:10At 10,475.
08:12Right in the position of today's closing.
08:14Is it a bullish-harami, sir, for TPIA?
08:18Oh, of course.
08:19If it's about the overbought,
08:21it's clear that it's already very overbought.
08:23Don't forget that
08:25this stock,
08:27if we count it from the beginning of the year,
08:30the opening at the beginning of the year
08:32is at 5,400.
08:36So,
08:38now it's at 10,475.
08:41This means that it's already double, sir.
08:44So, the increase is already very significant.
08:47So, if you ask if it's overbought,
08:49it's already very overbought, actually.
08:52But, again,
08:54the uptrend is still intact.
08:56So, I just want to say that
08:58this is suitable as a hold
09:01for profit-taking.
09:04When there's a profit-taking signal,
09:06when there's a reversal signal,
09:08to bearish,
09:10then it's time for profit-taking.
09:12But, not for new purchases.
09:15If it's a new purchase, it's not recommended, right?
09:19Yes, that's what I mean.
09:21If you don't have the stock yet,
09:23it's not recommended.
09:25If you already have the stock,
09:27then please hold it
09:29while you're ready to wait
09:32for the reversal pattern to appear.
09:34That's when it's time to start profit-taking.
09:37Okay. But, from the support side, sir,
09:39which is likely to be monitored
09:41to secure the existing profits?
09:43Okay. Good.
09:45The support is at 9,400.
09:49The closest support is at 10,150.
09:52And the next one is at 9,400.
09:55So, 10,150 and 9,400.
10:00That's it. Support 1, support 2.
10:02Okay. Analysis for SAM-SAM Barang Baku
10:05is safe and TPIA seems to be the driver
10:08for the Sam Kabungan family
10:10and again, the investment decision
10:12is still in the hands of IDF Channel.