This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 26/06/2024. The hot spell many of us have had this week is coming to an end but there’ll still be some sunny weather in the next week or so but with temperatures closer to average . Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
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You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00It's 10 day trend time. Thanks for joining me. We're still in the first half of summer and we've just had our first taste of summer heat that is being swallowed up by the Atlantic.
00:11But will it return? We'll be looking at that as we head into next week.
00:15But first of all, let's come back to the current situation after the jet stream has been shifted south for most of late spring and much of June.
00:25In recent days, it has finally shifted north, which has allowed hotter air to waft in.
00:30But behind me, we are in for a shift.
00:34The jet stream is driving back further south, a bit of a pep in its step as well.
00:39Some of the pinker colours there suggesting quite a strong core of the jet.
00:43And it's not only just strengthening, it's also bending.
00:46And this trough, as we know it, is a breeding ground for low pressure systems.
00:51And in here at the moment, low pressure is forming.
00:55Quite a deep area of low pressure, in fact, unseasonably low for the time of year.
01:00That's going to bring some wet and windy weather across the north and the west during the course of Thursday and Friday.
01:06And it is also going to usher in cooler air.
01:09So the warmth that's been building, we've had our first 30 degrees of the year, is going to get pushed away as the low moves in.
01:16And particularly, this weather front just sweeps away the hotter air.
01:20And temperatures will be back much closer to average come the end of the week and into the weekend.
01:25Also for the weekend, we need to keep an eye on this next area of low pressure.
01:29More on that in a second.
01:31But before we get there, first of all, let's rewind the clock and just watch this weather front as it comes in.
01:36We'll bring some cloud and rain, but the rain really fizzling out as it crosses through central and eastern parts of England on Thursday.
01:43But the rain is not fizzling out close to the low.
01:45You can see it's spiraling around there, sending unseasonably wet and windy weather across Scotland and Northern Ireland.
01:51Very blustery conditions for the end of June for Northern Ireland and Western Scotland on Thursday.
01:56The winds only slowly ease on Friday and plenty of showers packing in.
01:59Not a couple of days to be up in the highlands of Scotland, wet and windy and feeling cold as well.
02:06Temperatures will be dipping away even across the south.
02:09Also, that cooler air is ushering in, but there'll still be plenty of sunny spells.
02:14But this map shows quite nicely the difference in temperature when you compare Friday to Wednesday.
02:20Wednesday, the last of the hot days, really.
02:23And by Friday, we're all in the cooler air.
02:25And some areas are going to be nine or 10 degrees lower on Friday afternoon compared to Wednesday afternoon.
02:32So, yes, it is going to turn cooler with temperatures back much closer to average for Friday and the weekend.
02:37What about the weather for the weekend?
02:39Well, remember this area of low pressure I talked about earlier?
02:43That is the main feature.
02:45It's giving us a few headaches, certainly for Saturday.
02:48Still the old area of low pressure up to the north, still providing plenty of showers, certainly across northern Scotland.
02:53But this one may introduce more cloud and some patchy rain elsewhere.
02:57But if we look again at the bigger picture and what the jet stream is doing, it's pretty weak now.
03:02And it's kind of breaking off and driving to the south.
03:06Nothing to really spin this area of low pressure up.
03:08So this is what we call a flabby area of low pressure.
03:12And as a result, it's pretty weak and it's just kind of meandering towards the UK.
03:17And as a result of that, there's some uncertainty about its exact position for Saturday.
03:23And that's shown quite nicely on this graphic, this Dalmatian plot from the European model.
03:31Plotting when we run it many, many times, what's called an ensemble forecast.
03:36Each of these pinky, purpley, browny blobs is a position of the low pressure.
03:41That low we talked about a second ago from each of those individual computer model runs.
03:47And you can see there's quite what we call a spread, quite a range of where that low pressure could be,
03:52perhaps into southeast Scotland, maybe down to the southwest of the Republic of Ireland.
03:57So it's not unusual when you have these weak weather systems, particularly in the summer months,
04:00that aren't being forced by the jet stream very much.
04:04And yeah, so quite a spread, quite a range of where that low could be.
04:08And that's going to impact the weather because that weather system will provide more cloud
04:12and some outbreaks of rain as it spreads in, most likely over parts of Wales and northern England,
04:18some patchy rain on Saturday. But the low could be further north or it could be further south.
04:22So as I said, quite a range of different possibilities for Saturday.
04:27So keep up to date with the forecast if you've got plans for Saturday.
04:30There's still a lot of fine weather around. And then on Sunday, as that weather system starts to clear,
04:35there is the potential for some heavy showers across parts of the south as well.
04:39Always across northern Scotland, the breeze coming in from the west or the northwest.
04:43Plenty more showers here on both Saturday and Sunday, although by Sunday,
04:47that first low should finally be starting to clear away a little bit.
04:52What about the temperatures through the weekend?
04:53Well, this map is now showing temperatures when you compare them to the June average.
04:58Now, at the end of June, so you'd expect them to be towards the higher end.
05:03But generally speaking, we're back much closer to average for the weekends across much of the UK,
05:09within that plus to minus three brackets, some signs of warmth, a bit of sunshine across East Anglia
05:14in the southeast on Saturday and staying on the cool side across the far northwest on both Saturday
05:20and Sunday, where there's winds still coming in from the northwest.
05:24So temperatures much closer to average as we head through the end of June.
05:29What about next week and indeed next month?
05:33Well, we're looking out in the Atlantic, one weather system clearing away,
05:37potentially bring some showers to the south on Sunday.
05:40And then this low heading in from Iceland, high pressure down across the Azores,
05:45a classic picture of our weather, if you like.
05:48And this weather front will provide some cloud and outbreaks of rain.
05:51But there's quite a bit of uncertainty about the position of this low, this weather front, I should say.
05:57And that's shown quite nicely here on this spaghetti plot from the European model.
06:03Again, when you run the computer model many times, it's called an ensemble forecast.
06:07Each of those model runs plots the position of the weather front.
06:10And that's represented here by each of these lines.
06:14And you can see quite a spread, again, quite a range of where that weather front could be.
06:19Could be pushing into Western Scotland. It could be a few hundred miles out still in the Atlantic.
06:23That's for Sunday night. By the time we get to Monday, well, that spread, if anything,
06:27is even wider of where that weather front could be.
06:31Now, all the models are agreeing that this weather front is going to come in and bring some cloud and rain.
06:36Just a question mark about the timing ahead of it.
06:39Plenty of fine weather across East Anglia in the southeast on Monday.
06:42And behind it will be a mixture of brighter spells and showers.
06:45But the timing of that weather front is still open to doubt.
06:48That's not unusual. We're five days away at the moment.
06:52And then into the rest of next week, we have that classic set up, if you like,
06:57with a low pressure across Iceland, high pressure down across the Azores.
07:02And say this is kind of your typical weather pattern across the UK, particularly so in the winter months,
07:08the jet streams coming in from the Atlantic.
07:11And in fact, this is what we call the North Atlantic Oscillation.
07:16The way we measure the North Atlantic Oscillation is by taking how low the pressure is across Iceland
07:21and how high the pressure is across the Azores.
07:24The North Atlantic Oscillation is a way of looking at the pressure patterns across the Atlantic and how they affect the UK.
07:31And we either have a positive, neutral or a negative NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation.
07:37When it's positive, it means the pressure up across Iceland is lower than usual.
07:43And the pressure down across the Azores is higher than usual.
07:46So you have a stronger difference across here.
07:49That's a positive NAO.
07:50And when that's the case, with low pressure here, high pressure here, you get westerly winds coming in from the Atlantic.
07:56And that is our most likely weather flavour throughout next week.
08:01And that's shown on this graphic here.
08:04There are the dates going along the bottom there and the coloured bars from zero to 100% of the different flavours of weather.
08:11And this dark blue colour is the positive NAO and that will dominate through the weekend.
08:17And it looks like for most of next week or at least even by Thursday, that's the most likely scenario.
08:2260% chance that that will be the dominant flavour.
08:25The next colour you can see there, which comes into play through the back end of next week.
08:30Next shade of blue is for a northwesterly winds to be the dominant weather flavour.
08:36They're both pretty similar all in all.
08:38So quite a strong signal that we have an idea of what the weather is going to be next week.
08:42With the winds coming in from the Atlantic, that means we'll see weather systems moving in one after another.
08:48And it means our weather is going to be chopping and changing quite a bit.
08:51So for most of this week, we've had a fairly static weather regime with the jet stream up to the north.
08:56That's allowed the temperatures to build and many of us to see two or three days of fine and sunny weather.
09:01What we're likely to see next week with this, with this positive NAO, is the weather chopping and changing quite a bit.
09:07That's clear from the European model when this is the deterministic run, when we just look at that one main run,
09:14which isn't, again, always that useful for the details.
09:17But I just wanted to show it for the flavour of the weather as we go through next week because it shows it quite nicely.
09:22This is the picture for Tuesday with a ridge of high pressure across the UK, low pressure out in the Atlantic.
09:27By Wednesday, that low is moving in, but then there's a ridge behind it and then another area of low pressure.
09:32Then for Thursday, we've got the ridge back again and then another area of low pressure.
09:37And then for Friday, that low is crossing the UK with some ridging down to the southwest.
09:42So it's that flip flopping, that changeable theme that we're most likely to see through next week.
09:47Now, for the details of that, we'll have to get closer to the time because of the range of spreads of those weather fronts.
09:54But it's likely that it will be that changeable theme.
09:57So every day is going to be different. One day may well be fine and sunny.
09:59The next day, we may have a weather system moving in, bringing cloud and outbreaks of rain.
10:03But it is early July, which means when the sun is out, it's always going to feel warm.
10:08Temperatures generally with that westerly wind are going to be close to average.
10:12And the wettest weather is likely to be across the north and the west, closest to those areas of low pressure.
10:18So changeable as we go through next week, but still plenty of fine weather to be had.
10:23So for the details day to day, do keep up to date with the forecast.
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