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00:00It's time for the Daily Bases.
00:06Craig!
00:07All right, here we go. Base number one, that would be first.
00:11We focus on a setback for Clayton Kershaw, trying to make his way back up through the minors in rehab starts.
00:18Clayton Kershaw will be shut down for at least
00:2110 days due to lingering soreness in his throwing shoulder.
00:27Craig, what does this mean for the veteran, for the Dodgers? When do you think he will return this season?
00:33Yeah, injuries are really hard to predict, and Kershaw's had his fair share of them with the back and the shoulder as well.
00:38Again, I think we talked about this probably about a month ago.
00:41For the Dodgers, what are the expectations for Kershaw? Hopefully he can pitch in the postseason for them.
00:47I think that beyond that, I don't think that they would be
00:50concerned with anything else, and of course the Dodgers with this
00:53unlimited amount of money can go out and get any player they want.
00:56So I guess what we will do, Ben, is we'll check back right around after the All-Star break to see what his progress is.
01:01Probably gonna have to start over as far as starting in the minor leagues again. Made a very limited amount of starts.
01:07But in order to be eligible, I think for the Dodgers postseason, my guess is is he'll have to pitch sometime in September, and
01:15you know,
01:16medicals,
01:17understanding, I guess that's when you'll see Kershaw. Sometime at the very end of the season, just so he can pitch in the postseason.
01:25Yeah, pitching staff that's very talented with the names in it,
01:28but certainly a lot of those injury concerns entering into the season, now raising it once again with Clayton Kershaw.
01:33Let's take a look at one team here that's not worried too much about many things in first place by a wide margin.
01:38That's the Guardians. They've been taking on the Orioles here with another victory yesterday. Two teams here, Craig,
01:43seemingly going in opposite directions. When the Orioles, you say opposite direction, that's the only direction
01:48they know has been winning.
01:49They've lost a few games in a row, and now you're seeing the shrieking Guardians. Talk to us about two of these ballclubs and the
01:54expectations moving forward seem fantastic for both of them.
01:57Yeah, tremendous season again for Cleveland. Remember, Terry Francona retired at the end of last season.
02:04They really didn't go out and get a ton of players, and here Cleveland is in a position not only to win the division,
02:10but maybe to have the best record in all of baseball. Credit to that organization, scouting, development, and free agent signings.
02:17They've done a fantastic job. They've also found a way to keep some of their pitchers healthy,
02:22regardless of what you're seeing in earn, run average, and whip, and some of the advanced metrics. Guys, every Guardians pitcher just pitches every
02:29five days, and they just keep that going. As far as Baltimore is concerned, you're right, Donnie, a little bit of a blip,
02:34but that's going to happen to every team over the course of the year.
02:37I just don't know what the Orioles are going to do. It's a very complex situation with Baltimore. They kind of have this, you know,
02:45Houston Astros model through the years. The Astros did make acquisitions when they were so successful. I think Baltimore is going to be down those
02:53same lines, but every once in a while they would get a player. It wasn't like they would just break the bank at the trade deadline or in the
03:00offseason. So call me curious to see what Baltimore ends up doing next month.
03:05The O's on a four-game skid. The Guardians, the hottest active team in Major League Baseball, make that six wins in a row. But Baltimore
03:12favored it home today to snap the skid and even up this midweek set against Cleveland. Craig, what an ace's affair we have today in the
03:21Motor City. Ranger Suarez, 10-1, with a 1-7-5 ERA. The 10 wins for Suarez, the best in Major League Baseball, at least tied for the
03:31most. That 1-7-5 ERA, not tied for anything. The best in all of the bigs. Tarek Scouble has been great for Detroit on the other side, 8-3 with a
03:412-5-0 ERA. Who has the pitching edge today in the Motor City?
03:47Look, I think this is in line for a close game. I mean, Scouble's two bad starts in a row now for him. So I would imagine he'll fare better,
03:54although it is a very potent Philadelphia Phillies offense. We know that Ranger Suarez has been one of the best pitchers, if not the best in all of
04:01baseball this season. I look at the total of 7-1-2. And, you know, I take a look at what Detroit has been doing, essentially, which is, you know, going
04:11under in their last game, going over the game before that, and then going under, under, under, under, under. So I think I'm going to go under on this
04:22game today. Look, the Tigers, they pitch well. They really just don't score runs. I mean, this has been going on all season long. So, you know, I don't
04:30think you could just close your eyes and click under for the rest of the season. But, you know, the Tigers are going to hang around in this thing. But until
04:37they start hitting the ball more, that's a team to look toward the under.
04:41It feels that way, too, Craig. It's almost like it's Riley Green and maybe get a little bit out of Matt Vierling and not much out of the rest of that
04:47lineup here. We'll see how that holds on that 7-1-2. Subway Series today. Battle of New York City. The New York Mets and the New York Yankees.
04:54Gary Kolbach on the mound facing the left-handed pitcher, David Peterson, an 8-1-2 total and a favorite here for the Yankees at about a minus $1.48 price.
05:03What are we looking at tonight? Subway Series action.
05:05Yeah, you're going to get your money's worth because I think this is going to be one of the longer games played in baseball because you're going to have two
05:12teams that are going to have pitchers out probably in the fifth inning or even before. And the difference in a game like this in June as opposed to some
05:19others, look, these two teams want to beat each other. There's bragging rights on the line. It's not like that in every game, guys. But in these series in
05:28particular, you're going to see the managers managing. You're going to see a lot of pitching changes going on. Have no real strong opinion in this
05:34because I think it's more of a live action game where you check back in the third or fourth inning, see what the score is and see if there's any advantage. But I can
05:41assure you there's going to be a lot of pitchers on both sides pitching in this game.
05:46The Yanks struggling ever so slightly lost to the Atlanta Braves this weekend at home in that weekend set. They've dropped seven of their last 10, but still 52
05:55wins for the Yanks. That's the most in MLB. The New York Mets in the grimace era in the month of June 13 and six. Two games this week at Citi Field in
06:07Queens. We'll go to the Bronx at the end of July for two more games in the Subway Series between the Yankees and the Mets. Craig Misch, as always, we
06:16appreciate the time. Thank you for being here on this Tuesday on the early side. Plenty of more MLB plays up next.
06:23What a start it was this week in the Motor City for the Philadelphia Phillies. A 1-3-5 triple play recorded the first since the late 1920s in an 8-1
06:33victory over the Tigers, which featured five RBIs from Bryce Harper, three more ribbies from Alec Boehm, who is having a great season for the Phils. And
06:42really, it's a great season for Philadelphia overall. And that encapsulated in Ranger Suarez, 10-1 with a 1-7-5 ERA, an ace affair today in the Motor
06:54City against Tarek Skubel and the Tigers on the other side. We asked the R.S. Craig Misch about this ace affair. What is your take that sees the Phytons as a road
07:04favorite in Detroit?
07:06They should be a road favorite. They should win this baseball game. You take a look at the temperatures here. 86 degrees in Detroit is a pitcher's ballpark, but a wind
07:12blowing out to left field at 12 miles per hour. Here's what you're gonna have to quantify yourself. There are two very good pitchers on the mound. The
07:18Philadelphia Phillies as a team, and again, just against just any lefty, doesn't have to be a superstar like Skubel. They've been tremendous here over the past 30
07:26days. Take a look at this. First seven guys in that lineup, ISO power numbers here. Again, we use these terms of at least like a 165 or 170 as the average. Anything
07:35above that, you're doing well. 368, 333, 382, 179, 526, 211, and 250 as that 1-7 in their last month against lefties. That should help. But again, it's Skubel. And if
07:46you want to take a look at on the season, both of these pitchers have been great. But how about if we go to some of those splits here over the past 60 days? At home,
07:53Tarek Skubel, you know, number two on the card today with an ERA just over two. And what do you mean just over, Ben? That's 2.01, an XFIP of 303. So you take a look at
08:02Ranger Suarez and say, all right, what does he do on the road? Well, you take a look at this, Ben, a 194 ERA on the road and a 280 XFIP number. This game definitely
08:11should stay under the total. The Phillies have the better lineup here. Can they get the Skubel? I don't even know if it's a case of that, Ben. How about just waiting out Skubel and then winning this game if it's close or if you maybe have a one-run lead or it's tied late in that game? I think the Phillies win this one. But runs coming here, that's going to be tough to gauge.
08:28Nine runs yesterday, seven and a half the total today. You would think because Detroit's offense hasn't been all that great and they're facing Ranger Suarez. And maybe if there is any pitcher to slow down Phillies offense right now, it could be
08:41Skubel bouncing back from a couple of rough starts by his standards. Maybe we stay under seven and a half. The Brew Crew back in Milwaukee yesterday after a rough weekend out in Southern California against the Padres. They dropped three of four, 6-3 the victory against the Rangers in the opener yesterday. A home favorite once again today at minus 124. Total of nine between the Rangers and the Brew Crew. What do you like?
09:07Yeah, here's going to be an interesting part. You take a look at Wilson on the mound. His number is at home this year, 2.63 ERA. Like, ooh, sign me up right away. But you take a look at some of those analytical figures here. XFIP number, 4.74. So that raises. Here's the issue also. He's a right-handed pitcher and has absolutely been dominant, Ben, against right-handed batters. But lefties are a complete different situation. Take a look at the last 30 days where he's faced 52 batters from the left side. That's a .244 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of .434.
09:34The lineup doesn't present itself all that well for the Texas Rangers today because over the past month, this team has really been scuffling against right-handed pitchers. But there's two guys in that lineup that aren't scuffling at all against righties. And that's the two lefties right in the heart of that order. Seeger at number two, Smith at number three. A .405 ISO power number here over the past month for Seeger against righties. And you take a look at Smith at .250 ISO over the past month against lefties. Excuse me, against righties as a left-handed batter.
09:59So RBI props here. I take Seeger and Smith not in love with this game, but that's probably the way I would go there with the Texas Rangers.
10:06The Twins, if at all possible, trying to chase down the Cleveland Guardians who have won sixth straight and now opened up an eight-game advantage in the American League Central. But Minnesota a road favorite today out in the desert in Phoenix against the Diamondbacks. Minus .124. Minnesota, that's the money line price at this moment. Over-under is eight. What gives today between the Twins and the D-backs?
10:30Yeah, you take a look at maybe have a chance to get some runs here. Forget about taking a look at some of those analytical home and road splits here. Let's just take a look at what's actually happened here. Joe Ryan is a good pitcher for Minnesota. But over the past 30 days, Ben, 52 batters that he's faced from the left side. Keep in mind, he's a right-handed pitcher. A .347 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of .342. So he can be attacked that way. If you take a look at this lineup, Corbin Carroll, Jock Peterson, Jake McCarthy, some of those guys should be able to do some damage.
10:55And the Arizona Diamondbacks have done well against right-handed pitching over the past month. Take a look at Brandon Fault on the mound today. Over this past month, 195, excuse me, ISO power number 340 weighted on base percentage through 128 batters. But if we look at that Twins lineup, they've done very well against right-handed pitching. In particular, four of the first six batters, .405, .335, .521, .363, and .441. Some of those weighted on base percentages here. I think we might be able to get some runs out there in the desert today.
11:26The reigning NL pennant winners, that would be the Diamondbacks, did lose the weekend in the NLCS matchup in that rematch against Philadelphia. But Arizona's been pretty good here in June. 13-6 overall. 13-4 before dropping the final two against the Philz. A Subway Series preview.
11:4210 New York Minutes with Nikki Lattarullo. Live right here on this Tuesday on the Early Line on Sports Grid. Nikki, of course, doing great coverage on all things New York sports for SNY ahead of the Subway Series beginning tonight at Citi Field in Queens between the New York Mets and the New York Yankees. Nikki, thank you so much for taking the time to join us here on this Tuesday.
12:05Yeah, thanks guys for having me. Always a pleasure.
12:08Let's start with the Yankees. 52 wins for New York, the most in all of Major League Baseball. Each and every year, Nikki, the Yankees are going to enter with sky-high expectations. What have you made of their start to this season? Have they matched the expectations you set for the Pinstripes?
12:26Honestly, I always go into the season with high expectations, like you said. But then as the season goes on, I start to lessen and lessen my expectations just because how their playoff situation continues to go in recent history. But I think this year, despite the last 10 games, which we'll talk about, I'm sure, but I think that they've been doing everything that everyone expected them to do. Judge and Soto together are like the craziest duo. I'm so happy to watch them in New York.
12:52But I'm not too worried about the last 10 games. I think they have to figure out the lineup. It's very top-heavy now, especially without Stanton. But I mean, the loss to the Orioles, the Dodgers, the Braves, those series are kind of questionable. So that makes me lower my expectations come the postseason. But right now, I'm just enjoying it. It's a good time for them to have a little bit of a sluggish go. But I'm hoping after the All-Star break, they can pick it back up.
13:19Yeah, it's always a long baseball season, the ups and downs of the season. It's no question you're going to have some losing streaks here. You just want to tame those. But I love what I see out of the New York Yankees, Nicky, coming out of spring training. I had my doubts here. Now, the Yankees, as you said, always a World Series contender because they're always going to have a big-time payroll and superstar players.
13:35But the injury concerns, what we're going to get out of Garrett Colt. Also, can these guys stay healthy? And what Juan Soto is going to be providing here in a big market. He has been sensational. We'll get into it in a second here. But the expectations moving forward right now. Any changes on the horizon, do you feel, Nicky, where it's maybe okay? Stanton might be down a month. Let's go ahead ahead of the trade deadline and make some of these moves. Because I really think the Yankees right now, if you ask me, the best team in the American League is the Yankees. But I still need to see a little bit more for them just to hold on this summer.
14:03I mean, if you would have asked me before saying her, I would be like, no, they don't need to go get anyone at the trade deadline. But now watching make you struggle. Rizzo is obviously out. Trent Grisham, like he's not the answer to replace Stanton. And then when you think about it, you'd be like, oh, Jason Dominguez could step up. But now he's hurt. I think if I were the Yankees, I would go get someone just because I mean, is Stan going to come back as healthy as he was? He was obviously having a great season. But is he going to come back and be what he's
14:33was? Or is he going to come back and get hurt again? And then, of course, there's always concerns about other people getting hurt. So I mean, I would love to see them go out and get someone just to have that extra insurance, because right now they're they're relying on the top four in their offense. And God forbid someone else goes down. It's definitely they don't have a lot of wiggle room now with Rizzo and Stanton out.
14:52Yeah, the last couple of weeks, we've seen one Soto miss a couple of games with some forearm tightness. We saw Aaron judge miss a few games last week, or at least one after getting hit by a pitch, but both healthy and in there for the subway series expected Nikki as we go to the other side of this equation. That's the New York Mets. It's been a very interesting year for the Amazons. But here in the month of June 13 and six, we'll get to the Grimace Mets in this era in January.
15:21This era in just a moment. As you look at the New York Mets as a whole, can they capitalize on the momentum built in June and make a run to the postseason?
15:31Honestly, if you would have asked me this question in the beginning of the season, I would think everyone was crazy. But you know what? We heard Stern say they're a playoff team. We're not going to give up. And what they've done in June is exactly what they needed to do. Their stretch coming up before the All-Star break was easier. And I think if they didn't capitalize on all those teams that were under 500, then there would be no shot. But what they're doing is exactly what they needed to do. I think if they at least win one against the Yankees and they have three coming up with the Astros, which is not the Astros team that we're used to seeing. I think it's going to be a lot of fun. I think it's going to be a lot of fun. I think it's going to be a lot of fun. I think it's going to be a lot of fun. I think it's going to be a lot of fun. I think it's going to be a lot of
16:01fun. I think it's going to be a lot of fun. I think it's going to be a lot more fun than we're used to seeing if they could get above 500 before they before the all-star break. I
16:11mean, I could see them in the playoffs, especially because then a wild card race is so close and
16:16none of those teams are that much better than the Mets. If you look at the team above them and the Wild Card race, they could be anyone
16:23other than the Braves, other than the Phillies. When I look at the National League, like the Mets or right in there with all the
16:30can't afford a slump before we get into the game tonight.
16:33There are some really interest interesting things that could
16:36happen in this upcoming season after the postseason ends.
16:39The reason I bring that up is Juan Soto is a free agent.
16:42Pete Alonso is a free agent.
16:44Both of these owners have deep pockets here, but sort of posturing
16:47it also it never helps the ownership groups when Scott Boris is
16:50going to make sure that these guys actually reach free agency
16:53to get into a bidding war.
16:54If I ask you this question today, what's more likely Soto back
16:58to the Yankees or Alonso back to the Mets Soto back to the Yankees
17:02100% I don't I think Alonso is more what happens with the Mets
17:07like are they going to make the playoffs this season?
17:09Are they not there's more up in the air with the Mets Yankees
17:11cannot let Soto go.
17:13It's to me equivalent to them letting judge go like if they were
17:16to let judge go last season, it's the same thing Soto judge
17:20duo is something I've never seen before in New York.
17:23The fans are rallying around this team.
17:25Obviously Yankee fans are always the way they are.
17:27But this is like a next level.
17:28It feels almost like a playoff environment every night at Yankee
17:32Stadium.
17:32I think there's no way that Brian Cashman let Soto go that would
17:36just be that would be fumbling the bag like never before.
17:38I don't see it happening.
17:40Yeah, Aaron judge the minus money odds on favorite to win the
17:44American League MVP one Soto the third best price in the entirety
17:48of the league.
17:49I think the odds on favorite to win the National League MVP at
17:52least in the last two weeks.
17:53That would be grimace since grimace throughout the pitch now a week
17:57and a half ago nearly two weeks ago at Citi Field the New York
18:01Mets nine and two.
18:03We all believe in grimace.
18:05I mean look at the arm he displayed on the bump but Nikki you're
18:09around this team.
18:10You've covered the New York Mets for S and Y.
18:13What are the Amazons themselves saying about the grimace era for
18:17this Mets organization?
18:20They're saying the grimace is the reason that they're on this run.
18:23Everyone's bought into the grimace.
18:25The fans are bought into the grimace.
18:26I feel like there was some foreshadowing.
18:29The City Connect jerseys are purple.
18:32Maybe they knew something like this was going to happen.
18:34I think they should get a patch with the grimace maybe on the City
18:37Connect and things keep going.
18:39Well, maybe Mr.
18:40Matt is out and the grimace is in I don't know.
18:43But whatever the Mets need to continue going up in this way being
18:49this great.
18:50We'll take what we can get.
18:51I think that's fans are just like holding on to any bit of hope.
18:54So if it's the grimace, it's the grimace.
18:55But maybe every time they slump, they get the grimace to come back
18:59and throw out the first pitch.
19:01Just put them on the payroll.
19:03Yeah, it could be interesting to Nikki.
19:04Like you see that big like it was a big deal to have the Tom Seaver
19:07statue outside of Citi Field.
19:08Then your Mets win it all.
19:09Grimace might be just right next to them.
19:11Mets win it all this year.
19:13The grimace is literally becoming the mascot.
19:18For sure.
19:19No doubt about it.
19:20By the way tonight, we are going to have the start of that subway
19:22series.
19:23That is the Yankees and the Mets a slight favorite here.
19:25I should say around a minus 150 price here for a victory for the
19:28New York Yankees.
19:29Garrett Cole's on the mound last time we saw him.
19:31He was okay, but they didn't let him go too long.
19:34Do we have expectations for Garrett Cole going longer tonight?
19:36And also what do you think is going to win this subway series
19:38here Nikki?
19:40I think there it's going to split.
19:41I think the two games it's just like it's a recipe for a split,
19:45but I think Eric Cole.
19:46I don't know if they'll let him go longer, but I think the Mets
19:48offense maybe won't do as well against Garrett Cole and he won't
19:53need to go as long.
19:53I don't think he'll run up his pitch count as much, but I think
19:56the Yankees win this game and then I think the Mets can take
19:59tomorrow's game.
20:00I think the Yankees will definitely get this game just because
20:02Garrett Cole is due for a win and you know, he's back.
20:05I think there'll be a lot of Yankee fans there.
20:07So I'm excited for the game.
20:08I think it'll be a better series than we expected it to be earlier
20:11this year.
20:13Yeah, a two-game set over the next two days at Citi Field to
20:16Nikki's points that Yankees a slight favorite in comparison of
20:20the two teams to win the Subway Series, but because it's only
20:24two games a tie a split at 1-1 that's a minus money price at
20:29minus 105.
20:30Nikki Lattarullo from SNY joining us here on this Tuesday on
20:35the early line on Sports Grid.
20:36Nikki, we appreciate the time as always.
20:39Have a great Tuesday.
20:40You too.
20:41Thanks guys.
20:43We will take a look at the odds for the Subway Series this week
20:46before between the Mets and the Yanks and go elsewhere around
20:50the MLB Diamond a full card on this Tuesday around Major League
20:55Baseball.
20:55That means 15 games for Donnie right side to break down.
20:59We'll try to get to as many as possible up next on TEL.
21:03Game number one of the Subway Series tonight up in Queens.
21:06That's the heart of New York City between the Yankees and the
21:10Mets.
21:10Garrett Cole makes his second start of this 2024 MLB season.
21:16And of course, if Garrett Cole is on the mound, even if the
21:19Yanks have to make the trip from the Bronx to Queens, they
21:22are going to be booked as the favored side minus 158 the number
21:26in favor of the pinstripes the total tonight eight and a half
21:29Donnie.
21:30What is your expectation for the opener of the two games this
21:33week in the Subway Series?
21:35The Yankees should win this game.
21:37But here's the question again as a handicapper if I'm getting
21:39full gas Garrett Cole like that's an easy win for the Yankees,
21:42but also the Yankees would then be priced on the road at a
21:44minus 200 price, which they're not they're about a dollar 50
21:47at this point.
21:48I still think the better team if we do look at David Peterson
21:50on the mound throughout this season, he only has 10 innings
21:53pitched here at home, but of those 10 innings pitched a 5.40
21:57era and an exit of 4.54.
21:59You take a look at Peterson who is a left-handed pitcher.
22:02We don't know how long he's going to go in this game, but
22:03he does struggle with right-handed batters as a lefty.
22:06So two right-handed batters that should be in your lineup
22:08tonight.
22:09If you're looking for RBI chances, that would be Aaron judge
22:11and that would be Gleyber Torres.
22:13If we take a look at their ISO power numbers through 27 at
22:15bats against lefties for judge 391 Gleyber Torres 21 at bats
22:19a 412 ISO power number and also conditions at Citi Field.
22:23Very good tonight.
22:2482 degrees at first pitch wind blowing out the dead center
22:27field around 10 miles per hour.
22:29So the chances to get hits here very good tonight in that
22:31environment.
22:32But if I had to choose I do think the Yankees win this game,
22:35but if I'm betting and saying, you know, where can I make
22:37some money?
22:37It's probably going to be in that RBI market.
22:39Give me judge.
22:39Give me Torres.
22:41It is a hot day in the Big Apple that I can tell you for
22:46sure.
22:46The New York Mets 13 and 6 in the month of June.
22:50They have won 9 of 11 games since grimace throughout the
22:52first pitch two Wednesdays ago.
22:55The Yankees have dropped three consecutive series.
22:57That means they have lost six of their last nine games, New
23:01York.
23:01That being the Yanks hoping for better tonight over in Queens
23:06Garrett Cole in his season debut last week against Baltimore.
23:09Not bad only 62 pitches.
23:12The Yankees did lose that game in extra innings against the
23:15Orioles.
23:16Now we go to a divisional duel in the American League East
23:20that game matched up between the Boston Red Sox and the
23:23Toronto Blue Jays Boston.
23:25One of the hotter teams right now DRS your AL team winners
23:29of eight other last nine.
23:30Meanwhile, the Jays have dropped seven straight games.
23:35Boston walked it off in the series opener yesterday at Fenway
23:38what happens in game number two 81 degrees at first pitch,
23:42which is fine for Boston light wind blowing out to right
23:44field, which should help you.
23:45You take a look at this lineup for the Boston Red Sox that
23:47I've been really impressed with over the past about month
23:50and a half.
23:50But over the past 30 days the top of that lineup including
23:53the top five guys here really doing well against right-handed
23:55pitching was an important tonight.
23:57Kevin Gaussman a right-handed pitcher is going to be on the
23:59mound.
24:00Now take a look at the first five batters in that Boston
24:02lineup against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days
24:05Iso power number 250 for Duran Hamilton 169 Abraha 269 Devers
24:102028 and Tyler O'Neill 200.
24:13Also those guys elevated weighted on base percentages as
24:16well.
24:16But here's what you're going to have to deal with Kevin
24:18Gaussman is a very good pitcher here against right-handed
24:21batters.
24:22He's filthy.
24:22So you want to match up those lefties which by the way first
24:25four batters in the lineup.
24:26This is very rare in baseball.
24:27All of those guys lefties and not actually switch hitting
24:30where it's like I'll just throw a guy in there.
24:31So that's an interesting start to this game.
24:33The reason I bring that up is Gaussman has struggled this
24:35year with left-handed batters over the past 30 days.
24:37He's faced around 80 of those guys a 280 Iso and a weighted
24:40on base percentage of 364.
24:42So, oh, this looks like a really good night for the Boston
24:44Red Sox.
24:45It could be but look at the splits here been on the road
24:48for Kevin Gaussman.
24:49He's put 38 and two-thirds innings on the road in ERA of
24:531.86.
24:54And if you equate that to a little bit of analytical terms
24:57that exit number 3.14, he's been good.
25:00So now we're looking at lefties that can hit against a pitcher
25:02that struggles against lefties, but a pitcher that's been
25:04filthy on the road.
25:05Those are the tough things that rigor out and that's why you're
25:07seeing such a close line in this game.
25:09If I had my druthers, I'm probably going Boston Red Sox
25:12in this game today though, Toronto was up by four after the
25:16seventh inning Vladimir Guerrero jr.
25:19Had just hit a three-run shot that traveled more than 470
25:23feet over the green monster in left the Blue Jays.
25:27The RS are going to be a fascinating team to study here
25:30as we approach the trade deadline at the end of next month
25:34because Toronto has had optimism the last few years with its
25:37young core led by Vladdy jr.
25:39And Bo Bichette, but have not capitalized on that now on a
25:43seven-game skid.
25:44They have dropped nine of their last 11 might they be sellers
25:48ahead of the deadline?
25:49And if the season ended today, you believe Boston would be
25:52buying they would be that third and final wildcard team in
25:56the American League to other playoff contenders.
25:59Of course, the Baltimore Orioles in the Cleveland Guardians win
26:03number 54 Cleveland yesterday six straight wins.
26:06The Guardians the best winning percentage in the American
26:09League the Orioles trending the other direction in the last few
26:11days.
26:12They have dropped four in a row but a favorite today to snap
26:15that skid.
26:16Will the oddsmakers be correct?
26:18Will Baltimore bunk both trends tonight inside Camden Yards.
26:22I think we'll get some runs in this game.
26:23We're close to 90 degrees at first pitch down at Camden Yards
26:26and also wind blowing up the dead center field at 10 miles
26:28an hour.
26:28Good hitting conditions Logan Allen who is a left-handed
26:31pitcher that struggles against right-handed batters.
26:33That's usually a recipe for disaster.
26:35However, all throughout the season.
26:37We would take a look at this Baltimore lineup and say to
26:39ourselves man.
26:39It looks great on a night-to-night basis and it gets a
26:42lefty.
26:42They should be able to stack right-handed batters and absolutely
26:45hammer away.
26:45But check out this lineup.
26:47If we take a look at the anticipated nine that are going
26:49to come up you take a look at Rutschman killing it right now
26:52for 73 weighted on base percentage to his last 31 at bats
26:55against lefties.
26:56You take a look also a little bit down that line Austin Hayes
26:58a 401 weighted on base percentage through 22 at bats everybody
27:02else been below the average of weighted on base percentage
27:05against left-handed pitching.
27:06And again, we're not talking about Tarik scuba and talent.
27:08Oh, they're just going to be dealt with.
27:10Anyway, Alan's not a great pitcher.
27:12And so you said well Donnie, why would you actually lean on
27:14total runs?
27:14You just trying for those expectations of what we anticipate
27:17because on the opposite side Cole Irvin's on the mound a
27:19left-handed pitcher that really struggles again with right-handed
27:22batters.
27:22We just talked about that a second ago with who's going to
27:25be on the mound here in the Cleveland Guardians, but not a
27:27great presentation for the lineup for the Guardians.
27:29I'm just expecting the law of averages to average pitchers on
27:32the mound to good hitting lineups in a ballpark that is conducive
27:36to hitting and does have those temperatures around 90 degrees
27:39and that nine mile-an-hour winds or 10 mile-an-hour winds blowing
27:41up the center field.
27:42I'll take the runs in this one.
27:43If I delete it's probably the Baltimore Orioles bouncing back,
27:46but I don't love the presentation of their lineup.
27:48I'll just stick with the total.
27:49I think we get runs today in this game.
27:52So let's focus on another AL East team.
27:54That would be the Tampa Bay Rays.
27:56They are a slight home underdog today against the Seattle
27:59Mariners.
27:59Here are the odds.
28:00We'll get Donnie's breakdown on the other side.
28:02Luis Castillo gets the start for Seattle.
28:05The M's have dropped five of their last six including yesterday
28:08the Rays coming back to score multiple runs in the eighth to
28:11win this game against the Mariners.
28:13Tampa one went away from getting back to an even 500 more baseball
28:18breakdowns and a best bet up next.
28:20In the trop we go between the Rays and the Mariners.
28:23Tampa one in the opener of this midweek set yesterday four to
28:26three over Seattle.
28:28The M's all be it a five and a half game lead in the American
28:31League West and still the only team above 500 despite the
28:35Astros on a five game win streak have dropped five of their last
28:39six as well.
28:41A road favorite today in Tampa.
28:43Does that change?
28:44Does Seattle get a victory today against the Rays?
28:47Here's the puzzling part.
28:48I like some of the components of that Mariners lineup and we
28:51take a look at those, you know, plus minuses on the season.
28:54There's not a lot of pluses here coming through lately.
28:56We take a look at, you know, JP Crawford decent leadoff hitter,
28:59but a low weighted on base percentage.
29:01Luke Raley might be the best in the lineup tonight as a lefty
29:03to 333 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past month,
29:06but take a look at this like Zach Littell usually you'd say,
29:10you know, just line them up and knock them down for the Mariners
29:12and maybe so tonight last hundred twenty batters.
29:15He's faced here.
29:15If we combine left-handed batters and right-handed batters a 239
29:18ISO and a 396 weighted on base percentage like equal opportunity
29:22lefties and righties really beating him around.
29:24But if you take a look at those splits that are sometimes so
29:27common, it's a true pitchers ballpark down there in Tampa.
29:30We understand that if we take a look at Littell 48 innings pitch
29:33this season at home.
29:34Ben a 356 way, excuse me, 356 ERA, which is actually is identical
29:38XFIP at 356.
29:40So he pitches much much better at home than he does technically
29:43on the road at this point rightfully.
29:44So now Luis Castillo more in name at this point.
29:47He hasn't been a great pitcher by any stretch this year and
29:49left-handed batters are clubbing him.
29:52Look at the last 52 batters.
29:53He's facing the left-hand side a 319 ISO and a 389 weighted on
29:57base percentage.
29:58Here's the issue.
29:59There's not a lot of love in that lineup for Tampa Bay.
30:01Even a late comeback victory yesterday when I thought they
30:03would get the win was a lucky victory.
30:06I don't know if their bats can hold up.
30:07So maybe Luis Castillo can get right in this environment.
30:10I look towards the under and here more than anything, but I'm
30:13not in love with either one of these teams played appearances
30:16versus these pictures here.
30:17They should be getting hits, but they just haven't been doing
30:19so lately.
30:20We had a full or we have a full 15 game slate on this Tuesday.
30:24Only 12 yesterday, but six of the 12 half decided by just a
30:28single run including that matchup in Tampa and one other game
30:32will discuss right now in St.
30:34Louis.
30:34The Cardinals scored four runs in the third held on to knock
30:37off the Braves in the opener of their midweek set.
30:40St.
30:40Louis has won four straight nine of its last 12 Atlanta, despite
30:44the loss still pretty good as of late the Braves victorious
30:47in eight of their last 11 a road favorite today under the
30:51arch because Raynaldo Lopez gets to start for Atlanta and he's
30:54been great this year.
30:56He has been great this year and also quality starts on the
30:59road.
30:59Now, this will feel a lot like hot Lanta in St.
31:02Louis today with temperatures approaching 95 degrees at first
31:05pitch and a wind blowing out the dead center field right around
31:0710 miles per hour.
31:09There is some rain in the forecast which typically means
31:11rain may be a passing thunderstorm with that type of heat
31:14and humidity that we're going to expect but Renato Lopez as
31:16you're right forget about the entire season.
31:18He's been fantastic.
31:19He's actually been even better over the past 30 days.
31:22Ben 91 batters.
31:23He's facing 082.
31:24I so in a way to don't base percentage of 255.
31:27That is absolutely spectacular.
31:28If you flip it over to Kyle Gibson, not a bad pitcher here
31:31to right-handed batters.
31:32He's been filthy here less 52 batters.
31:35He's faced from the right side at 083.
31:37I so in a way to don't base percentage.
31:39Oh seven.
31:39He does get himself in a little bit of trouble with left-handed
31:42batters.
31:43So if you take a look at that line up today, Jared Kelenic,
31:45Matt Olson probably should be in your lineup.
31:47If I'm going to look at both of these sides, I'm just going to
31:50rely on Lopez at this point.
31:51He's been really good.
31:52And I think we'll get some clutch hits for the Atlanta Braves
31:55enough for a victory there.
31:56That's the way I go Braves probably take that victory if they're
31:58losing yesterday.
32:00So now it is time for a best bet on this Tuesday a full NLB
32:05card a championship at stake tonight in the WNBA and the
32:09Commissioners Cup title game out on Long Island at UBS arena
32:13between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx.
32:16We break it down for you here before we say farewell and
32:19goodbye.
32:19It is time for bye.
32:21Bye.
32:21Bye.
32:26What is Donnie's best bet on this Tuesday where we headed on
32:30the diamond?
32:31Yeah, we missed off on some opportunities to use this term
32:34here, which was brought to my attention last week.
32:36You know, it's on the Mount tonight.
32:37Chris, you're flexing.
32:39You're flexing.
32:40That's what we're going to face today.
32:41And this camp.
32:43Yeah.
32:43Yeah.
32:44Freezer does get credit for that one because we should have
32:46used that one in the past year, but show.
32:48Hey, it's on its finger.
32:49Tuesday's probably going to hit a home run, but that's at a
32:51plus 196 price.
32:53That's ridiculous here.
32:54God, let's up the ante in this environment.
32:56Joy.
32:56Otani's left-handed batter has been crushing right into pitchers
32:59flexing cannot get left-handed batters out.
33:01So if we're looking at the fan blue sports book right now,
33:03show how tiny did a home run as I said is very very expensive,
33:06but they get to RBI.
33:08We're looking at plus 255.
33:09Let's go that route show.
33:10Hey Otani on dinger Tuesday to get two or more RBI at a plus
33:14255 price.
33:15You flex in.