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00:00All right, I think the second favorite thing for Donnie outside of chaos on sports grid programming is some baseball
00:07Breakdowns on a full Friday slate a great weekend card around Major League Baseball some really marquee matchups
00:14We saw that get started yesterday in certain spots the Mets and the Braves
00:19Continuing through the long weekend and here's another one a World Series preview
00:24Perhaps not done something we would have thought of saying just a few weeks ago at least for the American League perspective of this
00:31Conversation that's the Houston Astros, but it's hard to say that's not a reality now
00:37Houston a home favorite today from Rivaldez gets the start for the Stroh's
00:41They're a favorite at home against the Dodgers again, LA
00:45Not often booked as a dog Gavin Stone out there for LA
00:50They just won three of four games in their midweek set against the Giants the Dodgers have won six of seven
00:56Since returning from the all-star break. What do you like tonight in the opener in H town? I
01:01Gotta tell you I think I might be leaning towards an under here
01:04I like both of these lineups, but these pitchers
01:06I think are have been decent over the past 60 days take a look at frame Rivaldez gonna be on his home bump was certainly
01:11Like that in 88 X fit minus over the past two months a 318 era and a 359
01:17For X fit number, that's very good. You take a look at Gavin Stone. He's not too far behind Ben a
01:2193 X fit minus and a 279 era and a
01:24374 X fit number if we're lining up the team talk about the Dodgers lineup 1 through 9 Oh
01:29Tony Smith Freeman and Hernandez have done very well against left-handed pitching over the past 60 days outside of that other guy struggling
01:36Pa has Vargas Hernandez Lux and Ahmed not so great. Let's go over to the other side
01:41Take a look at how Gavin Stone matches up
01:43How about this starting to come alive at the plate the Houston Astros, right the record getting better. They're starting to hit
01:48They're starting to pitch better. You take a look at Altuve Alvarez Diaz
01:53Singleton Pena and Karatini all of those guys elevated numbers over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching
01:59I give the edge to Houston here, but I also think this game is gonna stay under the toad
02:04Yeah, eight and a half is that number but the under does have the juice the Astros have not been
02:11Sensational since returning from the break
02:13They avoided the sweep against the A's in their midweek set did have Thursday off
02:18La played on Thursday in the afternoon now has to travel to
02:23Houston a another World Series preview
02:27Perhaps it's the Guardians and the Phillies in the city of brotherly love
02:32This weekend the Phil's have lost three straight series on either side of the break
02:38Not great for the Phil's to the twins and the Pirates since returning from the break to the Oakland Athletics
02:44Before the all-star break and we shared the Guardians just split their four-game set with the Detroit Tigers
02:50But they are not playing great baseball at this moment
02:53But it's still a World Series preview because the Phil's have the best record in the National League in all of the bigs
02:59Cleveland enters this weekend set at 61 and 41
03:02Tied with Baltimore for the best record in the American League. The fight is a hefty home favorite today at minus
03:09178 will Philly make good on that price and take the opener
03:12Should be able to do that bank because Sanchez is on the mound that he is the true number three pitcher right now in the
03:17Philadelphia Phillies take a look at a season
03:20446 batters, he's faced having an ice of
03:23077 that's it like that's not 44 batters. That's almost 450 batters waited on base percentage
03:29283 low walk percentage even over the past 30 days
03:32I so power number climbs per se 2.106, which is fantastic
03:37You take a look at the way to don't base percentage actually drops to a 277 and you're getting Cleveland at the right time
03:42But that offense really isn't clicking outside of the first three guys Juan Martinez and Ramirez
03:47They have high ISO power numbers not a lot throughout the rest of that lineup to love you
03:52So Sanchez should be able to keep them down that the questions gonna come here as I just told you better pitch on the mound
03:57Sanchez but lively has been average at best a
04:00106 X fit minus number over the past 60 days a four era of four point three five
04:05But this is an affiliates lineup that's absolutely battering the baseball and lively is a right-handed pitcher
04:10But how about this past 30 days Trey Turner Bryce Harper Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh?
04:16Everybody else not doing so hot and that includes Kyle Schwarzer. You would figure left-handed batter gun. It's right-handed pitching
04:22How about a 125 ISO that's not Schwarzer like how about a way to don't base percentage of 226?
04:27That's not great either something has to give tonight
04:30I'm gonna trust the Philadelphia Phillies playing well at home with a good pitcher on the mound should be able to beat the Guardians today
04:36Because again Guardians not coming in a great form here. Give me the Phillies today over the Guardians
04:40The Phil's have lost six of their last nine
04:43The Guardians have lost eight of their last twelve who gets the opener today in Philly
04:47The Phil's booked as a hefty favorite now we go to the Midwest, Kansas City taking on
04:54Chicago the Royals
04:56Fully in to wild-card contention in the American League the Cubbies
05:01Not so much Brady Singer on the bump for the Royals
05:04They're booked is greater than a dollar and a half favorite at home in Kaufman total of nine. What's the play in KC a
05:11hard to back Chicago again
05:13so we see what's gonna happen to the trade deadline and see what this team is made of because we're expecting pieces to be
05:17Sold if you're looking for an RBI prop shot tonight
05:19So, you know what?
05:20I don't trust Chicago to win probably look no further than Ian have switch it on that lineup
05:24Which means we batting from the left side last 83 at bats against right-handed pitching
05:28He's got a 358 ISO and a 419 weighted on base percentage Brady Singer
05:32There's one area that he does struggle with this season. It's against left-handed batters. I think that does make some sense
05:37Let's flip it over to Kansas City Kyle Hendrick
05:39Certainly not my favorite pitcher by a long stretch the one thing that's interesting with his splits Ben against lefties
05:45He gets crushed against righties. He's actually very good looking at the lineup today Adam Frazier Vinny Pasquantino
05:52Michael Massey drew Walters Kyle Isbell. It's not a great-looking left-handed side, but also there's Bobby with care
05:58He's a right-handed batter. Oh, he can't hit Kyle Hendricks. I'll probably wind up with three shots here
06:02You're also getting that bump where look Kansas City wants to make the playoffs Chicago wants to sell
06:08They're probably gonna win this game
06:09But maybe RBI props your best option at this point until we see what the Cubs are made of after the trade deadline here, Ben
06:16Yeah, Don
06:17I think it's a really good look Casey had won five straight games that came to an end in their most
06:23Recent matchup plenty more MLB breakdowns around the weekend and this Friday's played up that
06:30History yesterday for the Padres the Orioles avoiding a sweep to the Miami Marlins
06:36They meet up today to start a weekend set inside Camden Yards in the Charm City
06:41The O is a $2 home favorite Grayson Rodriguez gets the start at a Mazer on the other side for San Diego
06:49Of course yesterday it was Dylan Cease tossing the second no-no in Padres franchise history joining Joe Musgrove
06:56back in
06:582021 and the Padres playing pretty good baseball as of this moment
07:02They've won five straight the O is not necessarily their best brand of baseball what gives today in Baltimore
07:09I'll tell you what gives Baltimore getting some pretty good luck here as of late with starting pitchers
07:14They're going up against yesterday. Rotary Munoz by far the worst pitcher on the card. They hammer him
07:19They end up scoring seven total runs in that game
07:22We might have a repeat performance and as we said like San Diego had a no-hitter yesterday that no-hitter might last only one batter
07:28Because Adam Mazer take a look at this 28 pitchers active on the card today with at least 20 innings pitched over the past 60 days
07:35He's got a
07:37149 X fit minus if you don't like that number, how about you're an ERA guy?
07:427.8 over the past 60 days. How about an x-fifth number six point zero three
07:48You like Sierra number skill and our active ERA five point eight six every single category. He is the worst
07:54So you see yesterday seven runs plated for the Orioles
07:57I'm expecting five plus runs at least once again for the Baltimore Orioles today forget about the side forget about the total just focus on
08:05Baltimore they should pound Adam Mazer today
08:08the O's now
08:1061 and 41 tied for the best record in the American League alongside
08:15Cleveland San Diego on this five-game win streak now has a half-game advantage over st
08:20Louis for the third and final National League wild card spot
08:25Rivalry weekend inside Fenway between the Red Sox and the Yankees Boston has won four of the six
08:31Regular season matchups against New York so far this year the Yanks who were swept against their other rivals
08:38They're in city rivals the New York Mets this season in all four games
08:42Try not to have that be the case where they struggle in their biggest matchups against their biggest rivals
08:49They are road favorites today. Nestor Cortez gets the start for the pinstripes
08:53It's a minus 118 number nine and a half the total in Fenway. Might we see some offense tonight in Beantown?
09:00No, I think we do and that nine and a half is certainly an indicator
09:03There are two pitchers that's it can certainly be had tonight talking about 78 degree temperatures up in Boston light winds blowing won't affect the
09:09Baseball either way the only problem is which form are we coming into the Boston Red Sox?
09:14Ain't looking that great as of late you take a look at the New York Yankees
09:16Just coming off the subway series now have to get up here for another rivalry there in the Boston Red Sox for me
09:22There's no real angle in this Nestor Cortez is gonna be the starter. It's a left-handed pitcher
09:26He's actually very very good against left-handed batters, which when you're looking at this lineup, it's Devers. It's Duran
09:32You want to quiet those guys down?
09:33We'll see if we can but he is really susceptible Ben to right-handed batters
09:37Which means a 438 ISO power number last 72 batters of 493 weighted on base percentage
09:42How can you trust that at this point?
09:44So just coming down to simplistic right Beto is not a great pitcher by any stretch of the Yankees should be able to score as
09:49Well, so I just say who's getting plus money. Oh the home team is yeah, give me the home team in this environment here
09:55I'll take the Boston Red Sox
09:57The Red Sox have lost five of six since the all-star break swept last weekend by the Dodgers in LA
10:03They dropped two of three at course field of the Rockies and their most recent game
10:07Colorado put up 20
10:09Against Boston. Now we go to Citi Field with a good time
10:13Just keep rolling for the New York Mets 32 and 18 in the last two months and how do things get even better?
10:19Kodai Senga makes his 2024 MLB debut
10:24Today, it's his first start of the season last year in his opening year in the bigs with the Mets
10:29He had a two nine eight era that was fifth best in all of the major leagues
10:34They're the favorite are the Amazons today at home against Atlanta yesterday. It was the Braves
10:40As-the-road favorite and the Mets won as an underdog. What do you like in game number two of this set at Citi Field?
10:47It's the Atlanta Braves you scroll past that column that says which money line do you want to take and you just take a look
10:52At that total and say seven and a half. I don't think they get eight runs here
10:55Charlie Morton has been a decent pitcher here, but he is very susceptible to right-handed batters
10:59You got some pretty good power hitting batters in that right-hand side
11:02Obviously JD Martinez Pete Alonzo Vientos in the middle of that lineup you get the picture
11:06But the problem is going to be is like hey, what are you getting out of Kodai Senga?
11:09What do you need out of him?
11:10If he goes four innings pitch gives like a one earned run like that's like a great offensive performance for the Atlanta Braves
11:15It feels from a time-to-time basis
11:17I just look at the rosters and say sometimes you have to ride the momentum the Mets are in much better form
11:22They're gonna get a bump by seeing Senga out there unless he's coming back into the rotation
11:26and by the way
11:27I do say this because Kodai Senga on his warm-up starts a couple decent ones
11:32You know his last one been three innings pitched 19 total batters five earned runs and three walks here with only one strikeout
11:39So it's not as if he's coming off a I just went six innings pitch. Nobody touched me in the minor league system
11:44Let's get after it. Yeah, he really struggled in that last start, but still it's the Atlanta Braves. He's back in Major League Baseball
11:50I think the under happens
11:52I don't if I lean towards the Mets, but I certainly don't want to put any money on the Atlanta Braves right now
11:56you just can't trust that baseball team a
11:59Couple of rarities in this Major League Baseball season both on display today
12:03The Braves and the Dodgers are both booked as an underdog
12:07It will be game 10 this year for the Dodgers the least amount in the bigs booked as an underdog
12:12It will be game 12 as an underdog for Atlanta
12:16Neither good as the dog the Braves so far this year 4 and 7 straight up
12:20La 3 & 6 when they're booked as an underdog
12:23It is for a reason if the Mets win booked as a home money line favorite
12:28They can leapfrog the Braves for the number one spot in the National League wild-card race
12:34Because there are six teams right now including Atlanta, New York, st
12:38Louis, San Diego, Arizona and Pittsburgh
12:41that are separated by just two and a half games for all three of the National League wild-card spots in speaking of
12:49Arizona and Pittsburgh they square off this weekend in the desert the Diamondbacks a minus 174 favorite for the opener
12:57By the way, you look at this lineup today for Arizona against right-handed pitching they have been absolutely
13:02Scorching hot just about every single player in that lineup eight guys above average
13:06I so power number eight guys above average weighted on base percentage going up against righties
13:10But how about Luis Ortiz, you know, we talked about so many times Paul Skeens and some other pitchers
13:14they have take a look at his last 60 days been in 83 X fit minus elite a
13:191.97 era elite an expert number three point three one
13:23So that a hot lineup going against a very good pitcher that should be interesting flip it over quickly to the other side and you
13:29Say Zach gallons over there
13:30We're probably looking at an under but this feels like a playoff baseball game with two teams that might be playing for one of those
13:35Wild-card spots. I like where we say maybe an under is in the best interest out there
13:40No doubt about it DRS. We send you into your weekend early. I guess not that early the money life starts at 11 a.m
13:47He's turned he's frozen. He's gone for TEL