Alec Shane and Rich Hill are here to take a closer look at the New England Patriots' 2024 Season schedule, and make their predictions game-by-game. Can the Pats improve on last year? And how will the schedule effect their chances of doing so? That, and much more!
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Prize Picks! Get in on the excitement with PrizePicks, America’s No. 1 Fantasy Sports App, where you can turn your hoops knowledge into serious cash. Download the app today and use code CLNS for a first deposit match up to $100! Pick more. Pick less. It’s that Easy! Go to https://PrizePicks.com/CLNS
Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying NBA tickets with Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code CLNS for $20 off your first purchase. Download Gametime today. Last minute tickets. Lowest Price. Guaranteed. Terms apply. Go to https://gametime.co !
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SportsTranscript
00:00 All right, hello everybody and welcome to Patriots First and Goal, one of my favorite
00:04 podcasts I do all year, which is really embarrassing to say because it's just
00:08 basically a bunch of names on a spreadsheet with some dates next to it. But it is the New England
00:13 Patriots Schedule Release Podcast, sponsored to you by GameTime. GameTime is going to be where
00:18 you get your tickets to all these awesome games and we now know where they are and when they are.
00:24 I am Alex Shane here breaking down Patriots Schedule with my good buddy Rich Hill. Rich,
00:27 how you doing man? I'm doing well, I'm doing well. Not great with the schedule,
00:32 but we'll break that down in a little bit. How are you doing, Alex? I'm doing okay. You know,
00:37 it's funny, like it's amazing. I'm always very impressed with how the NFL is able to drag out
00:42 something that could take maybe eight seconds into like a week long. They leak things and
00:48 they prognosticate and then there's like schedule release breakdown shows. I guess it's the reason
00:54 like you can either watch the Oscars or you can like see who won the next morning. This is my
00:58 Oscars schedule release. I'm with you though, man. Like I love the schedule and I'm not overly
01:03 happy with how things shook out. I, you know, not the best schedule, I guess. I mean, you knew,
01:11 we knew who they were playing and where they were playing, but I feel like this could have gone a
01:15 little better in terms of timing for me in terms of when they're playing. Yeah, totally. And so,
01:19 I'm looking forward to breaking it down with you. I feel like the preseason, we can just like
01:24 mash into this first down, but let's break it down by quarter in those SOTYR downs.
01:29 Yeah, that sounds good. All right. So, let's do like pre first down, I guess like kickoff
01:34 to the fair caught in the end zone preseason, home against the Panthers on the 8th of August,
01:40 home against the Eagles on the 15th, probably some joint practices there. And then at the
01:44 commanders, the 25th, there should be an interesting preseason, probably see a lot of Drake May.
01:48 I want at least one Drake May to Taekwon Thornton bomb before he gets cut. But again, I've got
01:55 nothing really to say about the preseason. It's kind of useless. Yeah, no, I mean, I'm excited
01:59 to see the games themselves. You know, like one of the lineups on the offensive line, who's starting
02:06 at left tackle, who actually kind of looks okay, because this is where you're going to be your
02:10 first real chance to see throughout camp. Who do the coaches believe in? Who are the players that
02:16 the coaches are like, all right, they deserve a chance to be with the starters on this one,
02:20 you'll often see under Belichick that like this, the young second stringers will get a few snaps
02:24 with the first down or first team. So, I'd see like where the coaches perceive the players to be.
02:30 But I also imagine that there won't be too many surprises.
02:33 Now, do you remember, Rich, when it was kind of the cam versus Mac debate? Did Cam Newton get the
02:38 bulk of the stars of that preseason? Was that mostly Mac Jones? Do you remember?
02:41 I honestly don't remember. I think it was very much clear, though, during like camp and everything
02:45 like that, where it's like, oh, Mac, Mac's the guy.
02:48 That's the guy. Yeah, that will be the question, obviously. Hopefully, he's preset, but maybe
02:51 Drake may can have a phenomenal offseason, preseason in camp and take him over. We will see.
02:56 But again, nobody cares about the preseason. I'm glad they got rid of that one game,
02:59 that week four New York Giants-Patriots matchup was always so painful to talk about and break down.
03:04 I liked watching that random Patriots receiver go off for 150 yards and make everyone be super
03:11 hopeful, only for them to never make the team.
03:13 The old Malik Cunningham offense, I guess. Let's get to the games now, though, Rich Hill.
03:18 First and goal, the Patriots are on the road for almost the entire month of September.
03:23 They open up against Cincinnati, then they play home against the Seahawks,
03:27 then they have a Thursday night game at the Jets, and then they have to go all the way to
03:30 San Francisco for the 49ers to close out the month of September. How do you feel about this
03:34 first month of the season for them? It's brutal. It's truly, it could not be any worse, honestly.
03:40 The only way it could be worse is if it was somehow at Seattle. Just the amount of travel
03:45 that they're going to have to do here. They're going to have to go from doing their only primetime
03:50 game of the season against the Jets here, who Aaron Rodgers will be back, so they're going to
03:55 be more competitive than in the past, all the way across the country to go play the defending NFC
04:01 champ San Francisco 49ers. It's going to be hard. The Bengals have Joe Burrow. The Seahawks game,
04:08 I don't think I'm ever going to say it's an easy one, but of those four is probably the most
04:12 winnable. Jets is going to be hard. 49ers is going to be nigh impossible. If the Patriots come out of
04:19 this one, one in three, I'll say they're doing a pretty good job, but they could very easily go
04:24 0-4 on this stretch, and I wouldn't bet nigh, and I wouldn't judge the team either.
04:28 No, I mean, it's, you know, Seahawks, that's a real question mark of a team this year for me,
04:33 but yeah, this is a really rough way to start, particularly if Drake May does win the starting
04:38 job. Talk about a welcome to the NFL moment, going to one of the better teams in the AFC,
04:43 at Cincinnati, tough place to play, homing into Seahawks, that's kind of a crap shoot,
04:46 and then you got to go a short week for a Thursday night game at New York, big AFC East
04:51 rival, and then all the way across the country. I guess the one saving grace is they have that mini
04:55 bye after the Jets game, so they can go to San Francisco a little earlier. I was really hoping
05:00 you'd see at San Francisco and at Arizona back to back, so they could stay on the West Coast for
05:04 that flag, but that obviously didn't happen. They're going to play Arizona all the way till
05:07 week 15, so not only is it a lot of travel, it's three or four games on the road, and it's three
05:13 or four games against three really good teams, possibly four really good teams, depending,
05:18 I mean, it's the Jets, I don't know what's going to happen with them, that's kind of a question
05:22 mark for me, but yeah, I think two and two would be an absolute golden win for September for the
05:30 Patriots here. - A dream.
05:31 - Yeah, yeah, but again, I guess on the plus side, it gets some away games out of the way,
05:37 it's a good trial by fire, see how tough the team is, and there is also that kind of first
05:43 month of the season kind of shaking off the cobwebs, maybe they catch the Bengals sleeping
05:48 week one, very possible, you never know. At the Jets, Thursday Night Football, such a crap shoot,
05:52 nobody has any clue, this could be Thursday Night Football anytime with the Brady-led Patriots,
05:57 it would still be who knows, and then again, at 49ers, maybe they catch them sleeping in the
06:00 gimme game or a trap game, so it would be a really cool, like, let's win one for the
06:06 Gipper-style Girard-Neo, let's dominate, but yeah, this is a brutal first first week of the season.
06:11 - Yeah, to me, my wonder is, like, okay, Jacoby Bursette wins the starting job,
06:17 we've always talked about, like, the way that Drake May wins is if he either one outperforms
06:22 Jacoby Bursette, or Jacoby Bursette goes in there and is completely dusted, he's just not good.
06:28 Does this start of the season, we can also talk about this a little bit more on Second Down too,
06:33 does the start of the season kind of set up Jacoby Bursette, the veteran bridge, to fail? Because,
06:40 my goodness, he's not gonna get through this stretch unscathed, and if the Patriots, you know,
06:47 go into that second quarter of the season as well, but, like, they start off the year 1-3, 0-4,
06:53 the Boo Birds are gonna come out, and I can very well and very easily and kind of understandably
06:59 see people be like, "Why aren't we just doing Drake May? We're not gonna win anything, let's
07:03 just do Drake May." - Yeah, I mean, there's also gonna be that fan base out there that Jacoby
07:08 could start week one, and before he takes his first snap, they're gonna be like, "Gimme Drake
07:12 May!" You know that's coming anyway, so I think we're kind of divided, Patriots Nation is,
07:16 in terms of when Drake May should start, I think the more rational Patriots fans know he's not
07:20 ready yet. I hope that Gerard Mayo sees this and says, "Unless he absolutely dominates the next few
07:27 months of OTAs and practices and preseasons, I am not gonna throw this poor kid to the Bengals,
07:32 the Jets, the Fortinet, and the Seahawks on the road. There's just no way you should do that.
07:35 It's really, really rough. I don't know. You're gonna see some very interesting stuff here,
07:39 and 0-4 through September, your season's already over. So I guess, on the plus side, we'll know a
07:45 lot about this team and how much we should be excited coming into the second quarter of the
07:50 season. So let's go to second down here, Rich Hill. From week five on, they have a little home
07:54 stretch against the Dolphins and Texans. It's their only back-to-back home game stretch all
07:58 season. The Dolphins and Texans to open up October. Then they travel to London for week seven for an
08:05 away game, luckily, against the Jaguars, and their home against the Jets. This is a little bit
08:10 easier, but not a todd easier. No, not at all. They don't even get the bi-weeker rest after the
08:15 London game, which is wild. So they're just going to go to London and immediately play the next week.
08:20 And also, this is like three playoff teams, or four playoff, well, literally three playoff teams,
08:26 but four playoff caliber teams here. Again, they could start 0-8, and I don't think anyone would
08:33 blink. That's how this roster is. Their easiest game here is probably against the Jaguars,
08:39 and that's in London. Who knows what's going to happen on that one? And so, I wouldn't be surprised
08:45 if they lost to the Dolphins. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost to the Texans. That one
08:49 would probably be more competitive, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lost. I really think the
08:52 Texans are in an awesome spot as a team. The Jaguars, who knows? It's London. Anything can
08:58 happen. And then again, home against the Jets. You'd like for the Patriots to be competitive.
09:02 Anything can happen in these divisional games. This is another sequence where it's two and two
09:07 is the best case scenario. More likely than not, they're going to come out of this one also 1-3,
09:12 and reach the eight-game point and be something like two and six or one and seven on the air.
09:18 Yeah, two and six, one and seven is not a playoff-bound team. On the plus side,
09:25 there are two games I actually really like, and it's the Dolphins and the Jets. I'm making the
09:31 Dolphins game week five my game time hot ticket. I go to one game with my dad every single year.
09:36 We've been going for years. I'm going to game time, and I'm going to watch the Dolphins game.
09:40 If you haven't done game time, it's awesome. It's a great way to pick seats. You can visualize it.
09:43 They have drop-down prices. Awesome app. And they can't keep losing to the Dolphins the way they
09:48 have the last couple of seasons. Tua is going to lose to the Patriots eventually. They always beat
09:53 one team they shouldn't beat. It happens every year. It used to happen to the Patriots. So I'm
09:57 going to go with the Patriots. They sneak one out against the Dolphins at home, and then maybe they
10:01 split with the Jets this season if the Jets are good. This could be a three-in-one stretch. I
10:07 can't see them beating the Texans. The Texans are a pretty good team. But I can see three-in-one.
10:11 It's like, oh, maybe it was just September. Doldrums, they're getting it together, and then
10:17 they drop off again. Because yeah. This is them pulling it together. Yeah.
10:23 I don't know, man. It's one with the Dolphins on it too. I'm like, yeah, I do think that the
10:28 Patriots at some point need to be able to beat Tua. But I'm sure Bill's fans were saying the
10:34 same thing about Tom Brady. The Dolphins just have so much more talent than the Patriots do at that
10:42 point. It's like, it's okay. This Patriots team is a two- to three-year rebuild. They were
10:47 completely barren of any talent on the offensive side heading into this year's drafts. Maybe this
10:53 is the point of the year after four weeks of the season. You'll start seeing maybe like
10:58 Javon Baker is going to really start showing up. Or Pop Douglas is going to continue to evolve in
11:03 his second season. Maybe the Patriots will have some players start showing up. Maybe Juju Smith
11:08 Schuster looks really good in this new revitalized system. There's a lot of options that could
11:12 happen here. I just don't think this game against the Dolphins is when it pays off.
11:16 Well, again, like I said, Rich Hill, there's always going to be one game that they win. They
11:20 had no business winning. It happens to every single bad team. It happened to the Patriots
11:24 on the bad end for a while. The Patriots beat the Bills last year somehow inexplicably. So it's
11:29 going to happen. The Dolphins is my kind of upset pick for the season. I am, to your point,
11:34 I'm very surprised there's not a week eight bye. I don't know what the logic was there,
11:39 having them go to London and then fly all the way back home for a 1 p.m. game against the Jets,
11:43 which usually I would like. But you're not getting out of London until late afternoon,
11:50 and you got to fly back and you got to adjust. And then it seems like a very obvious thing.
11:53 You go to London, you play, I'll buy the next week. Maybe because they're doing so many London
11:58 games, it couldn't make it work. But that's a that's a real hose job, in my opinion.
12:02 Yeah, totally. I mean, you couldn't have asked for. Well, we can talk about the bye week later,
12:07 but it feels like the Patriots have really the most brutal first eight games with especially
12:14 how it's laid out with the away games and everything like that. The most brutal first
12:18 eight games you could have asked for. It really, really is, man. Like, you know,
12:24 we all knew this, who the opponents were. So it's not like there's some kind of massive truth bomb,
12:28 but you're hoping they could a string a couple of wins together, get some momentum,
12:32 think towards next season, build some positivity. But yeah, I mean, look, if it's the week seven
12:38 mark or the week eight mark and they come into the the Patriots versus Jets home game 0 and 7,
12:42 that's really not this massive shocker. And the only thing that's making me so nervous, Rich Hill,
12:48 is Belichick goes and bring in Gerard Mayo. They draft the rookie quarterback. And if Gerard Mayo
12:56 is sticking with Berset, which would probably be a smart move if the season does unfold the way
13:00 we're possibly thinking it is, I just do not want to be within 500 miles of the Boston media. If
13:05 Gerard Mayo has to inherit an 0 and 7 Patriots team with this schedule, completely ignoring kind
13:11 of the circumstances surrounding it. That's going to be a miserable listening experience. I want no
13:16 part of. No, it's true. I mean, like, I want them to squeak out a few wins here and there. Like,
13:21 you have to. I want this team to be like, you know, six to seven win team over the course of
13:28 the year. It's just this like the third down. We can talk about this after the break. It gets a
13:34 little bit easier. It gets a little bit better. But these eight weeks, these first eight games
13:40 in these eight weeks are just disastrous for the team. And one where, you know, it does set it up
13:48 very well for that third quarter of the season when it starts to line up a little bit. If they're
13:52 like, all right, let we've had to pull Jacoby Berset and garbage time a few times. So Drake
13:57 may can go play against some of these teams. Maybe that's the time you hand over the reins.
14:02 Yeah, maybe we'll see. We talked about the ceiling on the floor for this team is definitely
14:08 own a that isn't the ridiculous thing. I don't think they will go on a maybe like one and seven.
14:12 But what's the absolute best case pie in the sky optimistic ceiling for this team through the first
14:16 eight weeks? Richard, you had everything kind of going right, but not going eight. No, obviously,
14:19 what's like a realistic best case scenario coming into week week eight with the Jets?
14:24 Best case scenario is like four and four. Like, best case they go there. Best case over the first
14:30 quarter of the season is one and three, like, they they will maybe steal one against the Seahawks.
14:35 But those other three road games, I don't see like, on average, they're only going to win one
14:41 of those at best. And or as in like, across those first four weeks, best cases that they go one and
14:46 three over that and all feel good if they look competitive in their losses. That's that second
14:51 quarter of the season that you mentioned, like, dolphins, Texans, Jaguars, Jets, they could win
14:57 for either like all four of those games are winnable. In my mind. Best case, I don't think
15:03 they'll go for now. But he go like three in one in that stretch. And that would like be really cool
15:07 when stuff like when flip games. And so I mean, like, on average, across that best case scenarios
15:12 that they go for for the first half of the year. Yeah, I mean, I guess I could I could probably go
15:17 real Homer in fabricate some scenario where they can they catch the Bengals week one, then they beat
15:22 the Seahawks at home and then Thursday night football at the Jets is some kind of crapshoot
15:25 where they managed to pull one out there. Most of the 49ers, maybe they squeak with dolphins,
15:30 I guess I could do like a, like a five and three through eight. But that's a real pie in the sky
15:35 scenario. I think four and four would be amazing. There was some great Patriots teams in the past
15:39 that were four and four coming into week eight. So that's that's phenomenal. But yeah, I think
15:43 two and six is much more realistic. We should set our expectations accordingly. But you're right,
15:47 rich, it does get easier on the third quarter of the season, which we'll talk about and goal coming.
15:53 What's up guys, it's Alex Shane from Patriots first and goal and I cannot wait to tell you
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17:10 All right, buddy, we've gotten through the first half of the season, the first almost half of the
17:17 season, now 17 games. It's really hard to break it up the way we used to. We're getting to a
17:22 slightly easier stretch, but not like this, like massively easier stretch the next four weeks of
17:27 the season or getting into the bi week, I should say they're at Tennessee, at Chicago, home against
17:33 the Rams at the Dolphins and then home against the Colts heading into a week 14 by I was excited
17:40 about the week 14 by when they first got one. But given this team given this schedule, I think a
17:45 week 14 by is way too late. And it's not going to really matter because it's not like we're gearing
17:50 up for a playoff run after that. That week eight non buys really screwing us. But on the plus side,
17:55 even though the buys too late, in my personal opinion, very winnable games in the stretch here.
17:59 Totally. I agree about the winnable games and the buy is at an absurd point of the year.
18:05 It's so late. It's not like they had their Thursday night game or had like any elongated
18:10 break after the Thursday game. Like their Thursday night game was back in week three.
18:16 It's not like they had a mini by somewhere to make it feel like you can chunk out this year
18:20 into three segments. It's like no, no, no, like, you're gonna wait to week 14 to take your break.
18:25 And these five games, they're winnable. Obviously, like I don't think that they're gonna win all five
18:32 that Dolphins game is going to be very, very difficult, but Titans, very winnable. Very,
18:38 very well. Let us as their quote, you can be you can get that in Tennessee. Jacobi preset.
18:43 That's why they bought it in Jacobi is to win those levels of games, not to win every game,
18:48 but to win against teams that are probably going to be picking in the top 10 next year.
18:51 They should be able to beat the bears, obviously, got to get a lot of attention. Yeah,
18:56 you're Caleb Williams there, you know, Drake Bay starting at that point, that'll get a lot
19:00 of attention. The Rams game. They're not the Rams of like three years ago, there,
19:05 they've had a lot of injuries and everything like that a lot of retirements. Also, in my mind,
19:10 a very winnable game, especially at home if they have to travel across the country
19:14 makes a lot of sense there. Dolphins might lose that one. Colts, again, very winnable,
19:19 another team that's probably going to pick in the top 10 next year. This is absolutely their easiest
19:24 stretch, I can see them going, you know, best case scenario, four and one over the stretch,
19:28 probably more likely three and two. But I can see this being a point in time where people feel
19:33 more hopeful about the future of this team. This is also could be the time in the season where they
19:37 do hand the reins over to Drake may because you know, if you're one in seven coming into week nine,
19:42 like why would you roll a percent? No one thinks percent the guy going forward. He's a great gap
19:47 your quarterback. And yeah, it'd be really cool to see Drake may come in and win some of these games.
19:52 And then of course, since it's the Boston media, they should have started Drake made from week one
19:56 drop man was already watched. But we can talk about that disaster when it happens.
20:00 The only game that I'm really worried about is a possible upset picks. I don't think any team that
20:05 beats the Patriots is like considering upset point. Well, I do think that Chicago is a real
20:12 question mark to me. I don't know what they're going to be doing. I'm sure they're starting
20:15 Caleb Williams week one. I don't know what they're going to do in terms of their the damage they're
20:19 going to do this season. But I feel like that's one of those games where the pages maybe are coming
20:23 in a little favored. And it is completely crap the bed and Williams just dominates Drake may and it's
20:29 the whole more narrative thing. But the theme of my my rants on this podcast for chill is there's
20:34 a lot of potential for the absolute worst of the Boston media have an absolute field day with this
20:40 team and Chicago could be a real ripe piece of that. Well, totally. I mean, the big narrative
20:46 on it is, did they set up their quarterback for more success than the Patriots because you look
20:52 at what they've done over the past couple of years. Acquired DJ more, who's a one B if not a
20:58 one a wide receiver. They traded for Keenan Allen for like a fourth round pick, obviously on the
21:05 older side of it, but he's been the most consistent receiver when healthy over like the past seven
21:12 years kind of a thing. And then they used another top 10 pick on a wide receiver. They've been in
21:17 vesting, they've been adding players to the line, they've been doing everything to put the highest
21:22 level of talent around their young quarterback and obviously Justin Fields didn't work out.
21:28 Okay, try again. What have the Patriots surrounded their quarterback of the future,
21:35 Drake Bay with short, they've invested draft picks. I'll definitely say Jalen Polk,
21:41 good investment on that one. I like Javon Baker for from picks, not necessarily going to say it's
21:47 like a proven veteran level kind of a support, but okay. What else? I'm not going to say Juju
21:53 Smith Schuster is anywhere near the same level as Alan. I'm not going to say KJ Osborne is anywhere
21:59 near the same as using a top 10 pick on a wide receiver. Obviously, Patriots didn't have the
22:02 chance to do that. They needed for Drake Bay. They just don't have the same talent around their team.
22:09 So one where I do think that they should be able to beat the Bears most because I trust the defense.
22:14 I think the Marcus Covington is going to do an awesome job with this defense. The talents all
22:18 there. I think that they're going to continue to be a top three unit in the entire league.
22:23 I believe in them fully in their ability to fluster a rookie quarterback. So I think that's
22:26 where the game is going to be allowed to be competitive. But when you see the narrative,
22:30 what's the media going to talk about is going to be like, Oh, the Patriots have failed to
22:34 surround their their quarterback with the talent. Like look at the Bears. They did a great job.
22:39 Yeah, no, I guess the plus I would like about this part of the schedule is we're coming to
22:43 November and November is usually the time where the Patriots were kind of tuning into playoff
22:48 mode and really honing the skills to make up deeper in January. But this could be a nice
22:55 glimpse into the future. The rookie starting to get some more reps in there starting to click
22:59 a little bit offensively. You see these little flashes of competent offensive play, and there'll
23:04 be a nice little early Christmas present for those of us who were hoping for things the next year.
23:08 But a real question is, you know, usually when a team goes into a bye week, hopefully a lot earlier
23:13 in the future, they talk about, okay, we need to rest, recover and rehab, obviously. But this is
23:18 the point in the season where we take a step back, we make some adjustments, we do what we need to do
23:23 to finish out the season strong. Look at what wasn't working, look at what was, but with a week
23:27 14 bye in this schedule, and probably something like, I don't know, like four and nine, three and
23:34 10 record at this point. What's your bye week conversation if you're Jarrod Mayo going this
23:41 late in the season? I think you're very much turning the keys over to the future on that point
23:47 and being like, okay, if we've gotten to this bye week, and Juju Smith, Smith Schuster looks great.
23:53 That's cool. Let him keep playing put surround Drake may with it, let him do it. If you're
23:58 clearly destined for a top 10 pick. You don't need to put your veterans out there. Like if it's Chuka
24:04 Okafora, the left tackle, and you're like, I don't know, put in put in Caden do something like that,
24:10 like as in put in the players that you might be investing in for the future. Give them the real
24:15 reps, it's not going to matter from like a record perspective, but then at least you'll see what you
24:20 have. So when you go into the offseason, Patriots again, will have a lot of money to spend, they'll
24:24 have good draft picks. Again, they'll have the better sense of where their roster sits, maybe
24:29 they won't have to invest another five picks on interior linemen on the offense if they know what
24:33 these players can do. So I would just be ready to hand the reins over towards it. But it was one
24:39 where it's like, it's such a different discussion than what it was with under Belichick with exactly
24:43 what you said. First quarter of the season is an extension of preseason. Second quarter is trying
24:48 to figure out what your team is good at, like testing the limits on those things. The third
24:52 quarter of the season and the fourth quarter of the season is really just focusing on, okay, we
24:56 can do these 10 things really well, let's do that. That's our identity, and being able to really
25:00 define that. And I feel like we're going into this stretch of it's not trying to figure out what can
25:05 the team do well, it's who on the team can do things well. And that's a very different discussion
25:09 to have. It most certainly is. And another big plus of this season versus last season, I'm sure
25:14 you remember Rich Hill when Mac Jones wasn't performing that well in 2023. And what the
25:20 chants were from the Patriots crowd. We want Bailey Zappi, not exactly a confidence instilling
25:27 quarterback, but they wanted to do anything, any port in the storm, just try and switch something
25:31 up. I will be a little happier and a little more confident if Jacoby Perseus not performing for the
25:37 we want Drake May chance. That's a little more of an upgrade than Bailey Zappi. Oh my gosh, totally.
25:43 I think that this will be Drake May's show at this point regardless, probably late November,
25:49 early December. What's up guys, Alex Shane here from Patriots First and Goal and I want to make
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27:13 Last minute tickets, lowest prices, guaranteed. Which goes into our fourth and goal, Rich. They
27:18 come off that bye week in week 14, and they have at Arizona, at Buffalo, pretty rough stretch there,
27:24 then they're home to close out against the Chargers and the Bills. Both of those games are TBD.
27:29 The only way either of those games go to primetime is if there's some kind of
27:33 massive playoff seating for LA and Buffalo, because the Patriots are not going to be
27:38 in playoff contention at that point. But those are probably going to be 1PM games as well. 11
27:43 1PM games, possibly 13 1PM games from New England. That is unprecedented. They're usually at least
27:49 five primetime games. It is wild to see them. No Monday night game for the Patriots this year.
27:54 That one primetime game, like you mentioned, Thursday night, early in September, then it's
27:57 just the local broadcast. That's where we're at so far. In terms of this last stretch, it's the
28:03 Bills. Maybe the Bills are resting everybody week 18. The Chargers might be resting people week 17.
28:08 I doubt it. They're probably still going to be in the playoff hunt because they're in the AFC West.
28:11 Arizona, I think, is beatable. At Buffalo, probably not. This could also be a one and four,
28:18 maybe two and two stretch if someone sets some starters. Yeah, totally. I mean, I think Patriots,
28:23 my prediction is that they'll be like five and eight going into this stretch. And I think that
28:30 the Cardinals game is winnable. Not going to say it's easy because you got to go across the country.
28:35 They have Kyler, they have the potential. But now we're looking at the stage of the season where
28:41 injuries play a lot. High variance is very real when you look at depth charts. It's wild to me
28:49 that there's two Bills games in the final three weeks of the season. My goodness, the Bills are
28:54 going to be like looking at that and be like, okay, this is our path to the playoffs. We cannot
28:58 drop any of these for the sake of trying to get a first round by. They're going to be very difficult
29:05 games on that one. But I think, as I said, I think the Patriots going to be like five and eight
29:09 coming into this one. There's a chance, the chance, as you said, that they could go two and two in
29:14 this. Weirder things have happened. And if they finish the season, you know, seven and 10, I'll
29:20 be very happy. And I think that's very realistic. It is. Again, seven and 10 is not maybe great from
29:26 a top five draft pick perspective, but I've never been the guy to like tank for Tua. I never wanted
29:32 to do something like that. They have their quarterback and they have a quarterback. They
29:35 don't need a top five pick. They can get talent in the top 10 pick of the draft next year. I'm
29:41 very curious as well, Rich, I think it's a really weird move by the NFL to do Buffalo charges
29:46 Buffalo to close out the season. If the Patriots and Bills were both good teams, it might make
29:52 some sense. But I think maybe since the Patriots upset the Bills last year, there's some kind of
29:57 upset pick here, but I don't think this is a very kind of from a narrative perspective, some kind of
30:02 sexy postseason push matchup here. I know they always like to close out against divisional
30:07 opponents. But if I'm Buffalo, I'm very happy with this. You have to go on the road, but going to
30:11 New England is no longer a scary thing. If you're the Bills. Yeah, I guess on the plus side, you
30:16 know, they're very, very likely to be out of postseason contention well before week 16, which
30:22 is their last away game of the season. And they can kind of just start packing up early from week
30:28 17 and 18 and then get out of there and start their offseason. Again, not the worst way to end
30:33 the season. But yeah, I can see I can see another another one and four stretch here, which isn't the
30:37 most joyous way to close out 2024. But again, based on the schedule, I think at this point,
30:42 we're just going to be like, just get me to 2025. Totally this madness, you know, totally,
30:49 it's a very different fandom year, where like last year, it was heart wrenching to see that
30:55 this team that we thought that could pull it together that could get just a wild card, not
31:00 expecting much, just to have the fourth before fallout. That was just miserable. Now expectations
31:06 are shifted a little bit. This is full rebuild. If they you know, obviously, like what I said,
31:10 seven and 10 would be a great year, six and six and 11. I'd be fine with that, you know, you're
31:16 picking top 12 at that point. I mean, like if they if they get fewer than five wins, it'll again be
31:22 just like a disappointment from an output perspective. But again, we're talking bottom
31:25 of the barrel kind of records here. I'm not looking for them to be a contender. I'm looking
31:30 for them to set up signs of promise for the future. And if in these final four weeks,
31:35 Drake may is the starter and he has some good days. That'll be nice. That'll be nice to see
31:41 if you see like, okay, I feel like the offensive line has settled in. And it's because these young
31:47 players that we picked because in Wallace is doing well on the left side because of what line Robinson
31:53 late is doing well at left guard, whatever the reasons might be, if we feel like the young players
31:59 are doing pretty well, then that will give hope for next year, it'll be something to build off of
32:04 even if they're not competitive overall this season, it'll give them a much better view of
32:08 what they need to get a free agency next year. The entire focus of this year is rebuild and
32:14 figuring out if you have any pieces to rebuild around. And I feel like that final quarter of
32:19 the season will be not something I'm looking for them to make the wild card on, but it'll be very
32:23 revealing to see against this type of caliber talent final three weeks of the year, who's worth
32:27 keeping. Yeah, I told them to hang with some teams, you know, I think the real kick the real
32:32 kick in the nuts last season was just like the way they lost was just so embarrassing. They just shot
32:37 themselves in the foot. They had all these opportunities, you know, yeah, they had all
32:41 these opportunities to just like win some games late and they couldn't do it. You know, they made
32:44 the mistakes that kind of like safeties in the end zone and awful interceptions and just blowing
32:50 coverages and just things you don't want to see. So uncharacteristic if they go on 16, but they
32:54 lose every game by like three points, I'd be very happy. I own 17 like rock on. I'm okay with that.
32:59 Just show some more fight, show some more heart. But yeah, I feel like I'm hoping at least we can
33:05 close out the 2024 season with this last four game stretch with at least, you know what, there's some
33:10 things we saw. We really liked, we can build on that in January, February and beyond have a nice
33:15 good draft pick in 2025, a lot of cap space again, and maybe they can, maybe they can make a splash.
33:21 Maybe, maybe be a wild card contender, depending on a couple of things in 2025, probably more 2026
33:27 based on how young the roster is and how inexperienced the roster is right now. But what
33:31 I'm hoping doesn't happen, this is a great opportunity for Gerard Mayo to keep his team
33:35 focused because I feel like a schedule like this, this kind of murderer's row of games and travel,
33:40 it can be very easy for a new coach to kind of lose the locker room a little bit. Things go off
33:45 the rails. So I think this is a really good opportunity for Gerard Mayo to show some leadership,
33:49 examine himself, show how he can keep this team together, even though they're out of it,
33:53 keep them motivated and promise good things for the future. So that's really what I'm looking for
33:57 next year. Totally. And I mean, like also as a fan to this is probably the first time in maybe
34:01 30 years, there's been no expectations. Maybe you could say the 2000 Patriots with Bill Belichick
34:07 in his first year, there was low expectations, but like, probably since they took drew blood. So
34:11 this is the first year they've had no expectations because they made it to the Super Bowl with
34:16 parcels the entire time under Pete Carroll was just a feeling of disappointment and underperformance.
34:21 And then almost immediately with Bill Belichick, they've made it to the Super Bowl and won it. And
34:26 then the entire tenure of Bill Belichick had that pressure of them needing to do something,
34:32 even though they didn't have the most ideal roster, the expectation was that they would
34:35 be competitive. And so this is the first time as fans that we're going into the year where it's
34:40 like, Hey, who knows? Who knows? Anything can happen. And I'm not going to feel the pressure
34:47 of like, we're wasting a year of Tom Brady's career. This is delaying Bill Belichick's a
34:51 chance to get the all time wins record. This is a year where everything is fresh. Everything is
34:57 brand new. I'm going to embrace it. I'm excited for this team just to be able to show what they
35:02 can do. I don't know. It's kind of like college football in a sense where it's like you get a new
35:05 cast of characters every year. No expectations unless you know you have all those five star
35:10 recruits and the Patriots don't. So this year, then this great underdog story, if not, it's
35:16 exactly what we expected. And then we'll move into the next year of the rebuild and see what we have.
35:21 We are who we thought we were. That is exactly correct. It should be a lot of fun.
35:25 So yeah, so that is our Patriots schedule game time recap or game time release powered podcast.
35:31 Extra point Rich Hill. I know you kind of touched on a little bit. We talked about expectations and
35:34 how low they are. I know you talked about maybe seven and 10. Would you say seven and 10 is your
35:41 realistic ceiling for this team? And if that is your realistic ceiling, give me your maybe
35:46 realistic floor for the scene. What's the worst record you see them getting in 2024?
35:51 Totally. I mean, realistic ceiling wise, I could see them going eight, nine. That's one where I'm
35:56 like, you just have a few bounces go your way. You look at their record in one score games last year,
36:00 it was something like two and nine or something like that. We I mean, you just mentioned this,
36:04 the number of games that they lost because they couldn't score a touchdown was at least three.
36:09 And so if they can just have not even an average offense, just a not a bad offense,
36:16 they're going to win some of those games. And that's always, always, always the biggest driver
36:22 of regression back to the mean is one score games. And they likely not guaranteed, likely won't be
36:29 as bad as they were last year. And so that's how they get their path back up there. Maybe they even
36:33 get a little lucky on some games. That's how you can get to eight, nine. More likely, I'm expecting
36:39 to be a six win team. Worst case scenario, absolute worst case scenario here. I see them being like a
36:45 three and 14 team. There's some games that like I, as I said, they could start on eight, and I
36:51 wouldn't be like, super surprised. But that Titans game, that Colts game, those are games that I feel
36:58 like they should be able to win, like, will look like it's like they should be able to beat them.
37:03 Anthony Richardson coming up the Colts, he should be able to beat them like, last year, that Colts
37:08 game was so embarrassing. He should be able to win if they can score a couple times, not even
37:14 saying touchdowns, a couple scores, they should be okay. And then they should absolutely be able
37:19 to squeeze like one other win out somewhere along this calendar. But I would say like a three and
37:24 14 floor is very reasonable. Well, we're used to three and 14, unfortunately, around here after
37:29 last season. So it's not like it's a total, total shocker. But yeah, look, they can beat the Seahawks.
37:34 They can split with the Jets. They can beat the Jaguars. They can beat the Titans. They can beat
37:39 the Bears. They can beat the Colts. They can beat the Rams. They can beat the Cardinals. What's that?
37:44 That's eight wins right there, right? And maybe they sneak out one win against some team, they
37:49 upset somebody. That's how- Chargers. Chargers are always going to collapse. Yeah. Maybe the Chargers,
37:55 and maybe like they upset like the Dolphins or the Bills or something like that. Like, I can see a
38:01 really ridiculous, if they win every game they should win, and they sneak out an upset against
38:07 like one team. That's like a nine win season, I think. However, there's always that one game they
38:12 probably should have won, they're going to lose. So that's kind of cancels that out. But yeah, I mean,
38:17 I'd be so happy with an eight win season. Holy cow. That'd make me ecstatic. I don't know about
38:23 three and 14. I think maybe five wins is probably my floor, unless something really goes wrong.
38:30 I think five wins is, and you want to win more than you won last season. Obviously, it's a totally
38:35 new team, total rebuild. But I can see a five win season, maybe a little being too optimistic here,
38:41 but I can see him definitely beating the Jaguars. I see him beating the Titans, see him beating the
38:44 Bears, the Colts, and then the Jets. I think those are my five very comfortable wins.
38:50 The rest can go either way. I can see that. I mean, definitely sounds like a very reasonable
38:56 expectation. And then obviously, like for me, beyond record, I honestly, I don't think record
39:01 really matters. What I want to see more than anything is promise. Whether it's hey, Alex van
39:10 Pelt can call a really good offense. I like how the position they're putting the players in to
39:15 succeed. If we had a player with a little bit more ability, I see what's happening.
39:19 Amazing. DeMarcus Cummington, seamless transition on defense. Cool. Drake May has a few snaps here
39:26 there, even like takes over the reins. It looks commendable. Awesome. The lot of these rookies
39:33 are second year players that they have are stepping up into the starting lineup. And it's not
39:38 terrifying. It's not like watching some of you know, who is the guard that they put in there?
39:44 Not city Sal, but just a Tony Maffei. Yeah, it's like, Oh, no. Oh, no, no, no, no. And if we don't
39:53 have those moments, if we're like, okay, maybe they're not an elite player, but this is their
39:57 first or second year and they're looking capable. Awesome. That's what I want coming out of this
40:02 year. More than anything with the record is I want a feeling that okay, they got some pieces to play
40:08 with and something to build around. Well, the good news is Rich Hill, we are quite crazily,
40:13 we're not that far away from the start of mini camp and OTAs and offseason and training camp and
40:18 preseason. It's coming around the corner. I'm always blown away by how quickly the offseason
40:23 flies by and how much there is to talk about when literally nothing is going on. It's pretty
40:28 impressive how we're able to ramble on about things like this. So so good for us. I'm excited
40:33 about it. Anything else I'll talk about before we get out of here? Nope. I'm just looking forward
40:38 to camping whenever people start putting pads on. That's right, man. All right, dude. Well,
40:43 good talking to you and we'll talk soon, man. All right. Until next time, you have a good one.
40:58 [Music]