The New England Patriots looked toothless again against the Miami Dolphins and now the injuries seem to be insurmountable for the defense. But all is not lost- the hardest stretch of the season is over, and the Patriots are in position to start a winning streak with a game against the Washington Commanders. Here's how the Patriots can turn their season around.
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SportsTranscript
00:00 All right, hello everybody and welcome to Patriots First and Goal.
00:04 I am Alex Shane here breaking down another loss in Miami with my buddy Rich Hill.
00:10 Rich Hill, it was fun while it lasted, man.
00:12 I feel like there was some optimism at one point, like maybe they've turned a corner.
00:16 This might be the sign of good things to come.
00:19 And as evidenced by this past weekend's game, it was just one of those scenarios where a
00:24 crappy team upset a good team in Buffalo and the Patriots are right back where they belong
00:28 at the very, very bottom of the AFC.
00:32 Worst record of the conference.
00:33 How do you feel about it?
00:34 Yeah, they're like the only team that's like a distance behind everyone else, right?
00:39 They're the only two-win team or something like that.
00:42 It's not good.
00:43 Yeah, the Broncos just won.
00:44 The Broncos just won, right?
00:46 And who did the Broncos beat?
00:47 Maybe the Chiefs.
00:48 What the hell?
00:49 Yeah, no, I mean, it was a fun week against the Bills.
00:55 I'm glad they did it.
00:56 No regrets there.
00:58 But you just watch this game against the Dolphins and every little thing that could have gone
01:07 well or things that they could have built off on or built on just were gone.
01:12 Like that, like the biggest thing for me, obviously, we have to talk about the injury
01:17 to Kendrick Bourne that's going to affect the Patriots the rest of the year.
01:20 But the fact that the Patriots weren't able to build anything on offense, I think obviously
01:26 Mac Jones's interception right before the half backbreaking one that he never should
01:30 have done thrown off of his back leg.
01:32 Obviously Jalen Rams are going to pick that that was just floating there.
01:35 That was a terrible decision.
01:37 That was the past that Mac Jones literally cannot do.
01:40 I do think that kind of swung the game a little bit, led to a six point swing at least.
01:45 And then the game just got away from the Patriots.
01:48 But the fact is that it doesn't seem like the Patriots can do anything well on offense
01:54 or defense now, like they've just suffered so many injuries on defense that they just
01:59 can't do anything good there either.
02:00 Yeah, let's get into it.
02:02 First down, let's rip the bandit off here.
02:04 First down, break the game down.
02:06 What's frustrating to me, Rich, is because basically this game started out pretty good.
02:09 And it was kind of a feeling out period, some punts, that huge Kyle Duggar pick, drove right
02:13 down up seven, nothing.
02:15 Great, great, great to see.
02:18 And then it was Miami answered right back.
02:22 Everybody plays negative 11 yards on the next possession.
02:25 Miami touchdown, Mac Jones is driving, interception, should have been a pick six, and then field
02:30 goal and it was 77 and a half.
02:32 And as we've learned many, many times, this team is not meant to come back from a deficit.
02:37 They're just not.
02:38 I thought good complimentary football.
02:42 And it's just so frustrating to watch because it's almost like they have these little pockets
02:47 where they wake up and realize what they're capable of doing and they play well.
02:50 And then they just keep doing stupid stuff to shoot themselves in the foot.
02:55 Talk to Mac Jones pick and people are knocking Mac Jones' arm strength.
02:59 And I don't think it's an arm strength that you, I saw a comparison by somebody, I forgot
03:02 who it was, I don't give him credit.
03:03 But it's basically, it's like an MLB pitcher throwing a change up instead of a fastball
03:10 when he needs to throw a fastball.
03:11 Like he's got a good arm, but like he'll put these really weird, bad touches on balls.
03:16 There's Kendrick Barnes actually open on that route for a quick little out, but he just
03:19 floated it up there.
03:21 And yeah, that was a backbreaker.
03:23 And then for some reason, the defense decided not to cover Jalen Waddell at all.
03:29 And he went off for like 200 yards, especially for the backbreaker at the end.
03:33 And again, man, it's just more of the same.
03:36 These little moments of good football, surrounded by a lot of bad football and any semblance
03:41 of some kind of turnaround on the season is now completely gone.
03:46 And we're just kind of playing out the string.
03:48 And Rich Hill, there was nothing, not that I was expecting was going to fire sale, but
03:52 the trade deadline came and went.
03:54 Nothing happened.
03:55 The one tradable asset, I didn't want to trade Kendrick Barnes out for the year in ACL.
04:01 And I'm not quite sure where we go from here, to be honest with you.
04:04 Totally.
04:05 And can I kind of just throw some salt in the wound too?
04:07 Bro, throw away.
04:08 The Patriots got 10 points off of two drives that they started in scoring position.
04:13 They had one good drive the entire day and it was in the fourth quarter.
04:17 That's all they got.
04:18 They had two drives.
04:20 Now what five or more plays, that's it.
04:23 One of them was the interception before they half.
04:24 The other one was their 81 yard scoring drive in the fourth quarter.
04:28 They had nothing.
04:30 They had no answers to anything on offense.
04:32 It didn't feel like they could make any adjustments whatsoever.
04:35 They are.
04:36 I don't know what Bill O'Brien's future is here.
04:39 I'm not yearning for the days of Matt Patricia by any means, but the fact that this was such
04:44 a lateral move if not you know, just not even the slightest bit of an improvement for the
04:51 offense is shocking to me.
04:54 And the fact that Josh McDaniels was let go by the Las Vegas Raiders makes me want him
05:01 back.
05:02 Like, can he come back as an offensive coaching assistant?
05:05 Patriots don't have to pay him.
05:06 The Raiders can pay him for the next four years, but can they bring him back?
05:11 Like obviously they were with Josh McDaniels.
05:13 They were still handy.
05:14 Like they were limiting the entire offense for all of Mac Jones's rookie year to points
05:18 that it felt unnecessary.
05:21 But I miss those days.
05:25 I mean, I guess the question is like, how many times can you move back in with your
05:29 parents after you've gone out to make it on your own?
05:32 There's nothing wrong with that.
05:34 There's nothing wrong with moving back.
05:36 Mom and dad loved you and we miss you.
05:38 Yeah.
05:39 I mean, look, I mean, at this point I'll take anything, but I, I also wonder, you know,
05:42 as they have a kind of a soft part of the schedule coming up with the commander's Colton,
05:47 the bi-week, I don't know if McDaniels is in the cards, but I also don't know what McDaniels
05:52 can do.
05:53 I don't, I don't see some kind of magic turnaround and it's frustrating because maybe, you know,
05:57 they have some very winnable games coming up and I don't want to lull myself into this
06:01 false sense of confidence.
06:02 If they beat up on the commanders who got rid of their two best pass rushers for the
06:05 trade deadline, the Colts are terrible.
06:07 The game's going to be in Germany.
06:09 Who knows what's up with that?
06:10 Then they have a buy.
06:11 I don't want to have them go two and O and have a week off.
06:13 You're like, Oh, maybe things are going to be okay.
06:16 I just don't see any scenario where there's anything remotely positive to take away from
06:22 these past couple of weeks.
06:24 And I'm just kind of, it is what it is.
06:26 I'm going to enjoy good individual performances.
06:29 I'm going to be happy with the wins, but you know, I was listening to the Boston Glow Sports
06:35 with Chris Price.
06:36 It's very weird to be in early November and to be talking about the draft.
06:39 He made a good point, but that's where I'm at.
06:41 I'm kind of really just turning towards 2024 at this point.
06:44 That's where we're at.
06:45 Totally.
06:46 But Alec, maybe this can be our second down.
06:51 If we're talking about watching good individual performances, who are you watching?
06:55 Who are you watching?
06:57 Because we were talking about this beforehand.
06:59 If you were to name the five players on the Patriots that you would be most excited to
07:04 watch in 2023, you would have said Marcus Jones.
07:09 You know, he was the only highlight reel they had last year.
07:12 Christian Gonzalez.
07:13 Gone.
07:14 Matthew Judon.
07:15 Gone.
07:16 And then for me, at least, Kendrick Bourne.
07:19 Your boy, your guy.
07:20 At least, me at least.
07:21 I can't be the only one being like he was the only exciting part of the offense as a
07:25 wide receiver, like a true wide receiver.
07:28 Those are four of them.
07:29 You could throw in Raimondre if you're into that type of football.
07:32 You could also say I wanted to see Juju Smith-Schuster, and he's also been dealing with injuries.
07:37 But the fact that all of the most exciting players on the Patriots are dealing with injuries.
07:44 They didn't make any moves really at the trade deadline.
07:48 Where did the Patriots go from here?
07:50 Like what is their plan long term?
07:53 What are they going to do from here?
07:55 Yeah, I mean, look, we talked about this.
07:57 They have a ton of cap space in 2024.
08:00 I love Christian Barmore.
08:02 Kyle Duggar had his best game of the season against the Dolphins.
08:05 Love Drew Bill Peppers.
08:06 They've got some pieces in the secondary.
08:08 I think Jovan Bentley is a good piece.
08:11 But yeah, I mean, we talked about no moves at the trade deadline.
08:14 What assets do they have to trade really?
08:18 If they're going to kind of sell and accrue draft picks or whatever, Kendrick Bourne is
08:21 probably their most valuable asset.
08:23 He's now gone for the year.
08:24 I just don't really see any scenario where they have a young core of guys this year on
08:30 the offensive side of the ball that I build around.
08:33 I like David Andrews.
08:34 He's a good center.
08:36 I still think that the offensive line, they trotted out against the Dolphins are the unit
08:41 they're going to go with.
08:42 But yeah, I mean, this isn't going to have any kind of star power.
08:45 There are no Patriots making the Pro Bowl in 2023.
08:49 Maybe Bryce Berenger just because he punts so damn much.
08:52 Maybe he'll get there.
08:53 But like that's maybe Brendan Schooler sneaks on as like a legacy guy, but I don't see any
08:57 pro bowlers on the offense for sure.
09:00 I think what they have to do is they have to spend the offseason.
09:02 I want to lock up Duggar, maybe extend Barr more.
09:05 I don't know what Jabril Pepper's concious situation is, but I want to make sure he's
09:08 around for a while.
09:09 You get Gonzalez back, you get Jones back, you get Judon back.
09:13 Other than that, if there are any players that are just gone, I'm not going to be overly
09:17 upset about it.
09:18 I know you love Kendrick Bourne.
09:19 He's great, but if they move on from him, I'm not going to lose too much sleep.
09:24 They've got plenty of time with Pop Douglas.
09:25 He's a young prospect.
09:26 It's obvious there.
09:28 But yeah, I mean, I just feel like this is just another just kind of dud of a season
09:31 where I'm going to look back in 20 years and remember no players on this team.
09:37 Yeah, no, totally.
09:38 And like, if you love something, Alec, you have to let it go.
09:42 It's true.
09:43 I want Kendrick Bourne to get a real opportunity somewhere.
09:46 So yeah, I mean, it's a situation where the Patriots do have a lot of cap space.
09:51 They should just resign their good players, right?
09:54 Like there was that stat from Zach Cox on Nesson where the Patriots haven't signed a
10:01 top three round draft pick since Daron Harmon from 2013.
10:06 And he was the third round pick, which is a decade of futility.
10:12 There's been good players throughout there.
10:15 Don't get me wrong.
10:16 Joe Tooney, great would have been worth a second contract, but obviously he got more
10:21 money from the Chiefs.
10:23 But the fact that the Patriots haven't found a way to retain any of their homegrown talent
10:29 really both reinforces the terrible job of drafting that they've done, but also just
10:34 the terrible job of asset management.
10:36 Like the fact that when this season ends, yes, they have a lot of cap space.
10:41 They also had a lot of cap space in 2021.
10:44 This is like the year three after they signed all these players and it's been nothing.
10:50 There's been no value out of that big spending spree that they had a few years ago and they're
10:54 recycling.
10:55 They're going back to where they were before.
10:58 It's like these past three years, the first three years of Mac Jones career, you want
11:02 to ball it up and throw it in the garbage because honestly, none of the players that
11:07 they've signed over that timeframe are really long-term pieces.
11:11 You could throw peppers in there.
11:12 That was one that was kind of like, Oh, we're happy that worked out, but he wasn't one of
11:16 like the marquee signings.
11:18 Most of the big acquisitions that they made other than Judon have been for not.
11:23 I'll tell you, I'll, I will see your crappy Patriots fact and raise you a crappy Patriots
11:29 fact.
11:30 Uh, the current receivers on the Patriots roster who are not on IR have a combined 52
11:36 catches for 488 yards and one touchdown on the entire season.
11:41 And the one touchdown came this past week with Juju on fourth down to bring it within
11:46 a one score game.
11:47 That was the only receiver not in Kendrick Bourne.
11:49 He's got a touchdown for pages this year.
11:51 They're just not an offense that scares anybody.
11:53 And it's reason why I think, I think one of the reasons Matt Jones getting the bad rap
11:56 because like they have no respect for the deep game.
11:58 They have no respect for any kind of mismatch.
12:00 So they can just like put eight guys in the box and play really close to the middle of
12:03 the field.
12:04 And there's nothing anyone can do about it.
12:06 And it's not going to get any better.
12:07 And I don't, I'm not like a blow it up, tear it all down, fire Belichick and just let's
12:11 start from scratch kind of guy.
12:13 But they have a lot of work to do this off season.
12:17 And we're talking about how much work they have to do in the off season.
12:20 And it's November 2nd and they have a bunch of games left, including a game against the
12:24 commanders coming up and that's just where we're at.
12:26 And that's okay.
12:27 We're do we're long overdue for this kind of season.
12:30 I was just hoping by this point, given the optimist and surrounding 2021, what they did
12:34 with Mac Jones's rookie year, we'd be like, all right, we really see it coming into place.
12:38 We see kind of where their vision was.
12:40 We're getting ready to maybe make a strong playoff push this year and be contenders in
12:44 2024.
12:45 And we are officially just back to square one.
12:47 Totally.
12:48 Well, and I think like the fact that the most exciting players that they have on offense
12:52 are their sixth round rookie and Demario Douglas and then a journeyman tight end and Pharaoh
12:56 Brown, like they just don't have anyone like the the whole strategy, which I supported,
13:02 I supported the strategy of like, we don't necessarily need to have a true top tier number
13:06 one player because that's putting all of your eggs in one basket.
13:09 And that's not necessarily a thing that we want to do.
13:12 But the fact that they're like, we can try it out for number two options.
13:16 That was the strategy.
13:17 And then you're going to get at least a couple of mismatches.
13:19 And if you have a smart quarterback that can make the right decisions, he's going to find
13:23 the right matchup.
13:25 And none of that has materialized.
13:27 You talked about how, uh, you know, Juju's Mr. Finally got his first score.
13:31 He has 15 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown this year.
13:35 And look at Devante Parker, 15 catches for 158 yards, Mike is sec.
13:39 19 catches for 160 yards.
13:42 That is your just most replaceable fifth option.
13:44 And it's supposed to be your three big ticket players that are supposed to be in your life
13:47 leading three receivers.
13:49 Like this is just not a situation where if the Patriots were to like burn it all down,
13:53 obviously, I think Bill Belichick should get another turn at it.
13:56 I think that they need to get more help on offense and they should really rebuild the
14:00 offense from the ground up.
14:02 They need to make that investment.
14:03 We can't have another Belichick recycle.
14:05 We can't have another, maybe we can get a Belichick recycle to implement a Shanahan
14:09 McVay offense.
14:11 They need to get a true former Shanahan coach for a true former McVay coach and have them
14:16 implement it from the ground up.
14:19 That's what they have to go do.
14:21 Doesn't have to be with Mack Jones or anything like that.
14:23 I think the defense will be fine.
14:25 You look at the ages of all their key players.
14:27 Most of them are like 25, 26, 27 years old.
14:30 They're going to be entering their prime.
14:32 They're great.
14:33 They can extend bar more.
14:34 They should use all their money to sign their good homegrown talent.
14:37 But on offense, I don't know if there's any players other than maybe Michael and Wayne
14:42 who if he's willing to come back that I would say in like, you know, pop Douglas, but like
14:46 he's not going anywhere for a few more years.
14:48 I don't think there's any players that'd be like, you have to build around this player.
14:52 No, you don't.
14:53 To that point, Rachel, before we move on to this dolphins game, rebuild start from the
14:58 ground up.
14:59 You kind of joked at it.
15:00 The Raiders can pay Josh McDaniels.
15:01 Like do you really see him happening?
15:02 McDaniels coming back?
15:03 Any reality?
15:04 This happens.
15:05 I mean, based off of nothing other than like Gronk saying it's a good idea.
15:09 No, I mean, like I think it would make sense, especially because of what do they have to
15:15 lose if McDaniels is willing to do it?
15:17 That's probably more of it.
15:18 It's in his court.
15:19 If he wants to, if he wants to be like, you know what, I don't want to do anything for
15:22 the rest of the year or the next four years, more power to him.
15:26 But if I were the Patriots, I would make that my first call without question.
15:30 I would say, Josh, can you come back and like help us look average?
15:34 Like we are still in that same case as it's been where if we have an average offense,
15:39 this could be a, you know, an okay team to watch, especially going through the stretch
15:43 of the season that they are now.
15:45 But I don't think he didn't want to do it.
15:47 You look at the, this team, all of the fun parts are not there anymore.
15:51 So you know, even the offensive line that I thought looked good city.
15:56 So it was, you know, taken out for a Tony Omafi and Mafia is definitely a step down.
16:02 This is just not a, an offense that has any real longterm vision.
16:08 And it's really disappointing because they put a lot of investments into a bunch of different
16:12 individual players and it doesn't seem like any of them have come together at all.
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16:52 I have a little bit, again, I was really hoping for like four and four, maybe five
17:00 and three through eight weeks.
17:02 Given the schedule, I did not see two and six coming.
17:05 I don't think anybody saw two and six coming again.
17:07 These were not like, again, it's at Miami.
17:09 Tom Brady lost in Miami almost every year.
17:12 It's not so much they lost in Miami, just that they lost to the saints.
17:15 They lost to the Raiders.
17:16 They didn't even bother showing up against the Cowboys.
17:19 These are all games they maybe could have won.
17:21 And now they have the commanders, the Colts, the Giants and the Chargers, and then the
17:25 Steelers and the Broncos on the docket coming up with the Chiefs and the Bills and the Jets
17:29 in there.
17:30 But like those are all, they should have been like turning the corner, getting ready to
17:32 have a big win streak, make some noise, have people scared of who they are.
17:36 And now we're not even talking about that.
17:38 But unfortunately, Rachel, we have to talk about that.
17:41 Is the commanders game coming up?
17:43 Let's get the third down after the break.
17:45 All right, Rachel, commanders on the schedule for week nine.
17:51 Before we get to that, though, as always, we'll go around the league.
17:53 It's a home game, Sunday, November 5th, 1 p.m.
17:56 It is an interesting week, week nine.
17:59 It's a Dolphins-Chiefs matchup that is for some reason international overseas at 930
18:04 in the morning.
18:05 That's probably the best game on the docket, in my opinion.
18:07 You've got some absolute stinkers in here.
18:10 I think Cardinals-Browns could be one of those fun games.
18:13 Giants-Raiders could be one of those games.
18:14 I don't know what the Giants and Jets did last week, but that was probably the worst
18:17 game in NFL history.
18:18 They're both looking to redeem themselves.
18:19 You've got the Bills and the Bengals.
18:22 That could be a good game.
18:23 Any game in particular besides, if you're even excited about Patriots-Commanders, any
18:26 game you're excited about besides the Chiefs-Dolphins game?
18:29 I know, Chiefs-Dolphins is one heck of a game.
18:33 I think there's a few others that are sleeper good picks.
18:36 One, Bill Bengals, that's a good game.
18:39 Even if they're not the world-beating teams at this stage of the season, they'll both
18:43 be there at the end.
18:45 Joe Burrow has been dealing with a leg injury.
18:46 He finally seems healthy.
18:47 The Bengals seem to be clicking at least a little bit.
18:50 Bills have been up and down a little bit.
18:52 They've been dealing with a lot of injuries, but whole will them there at the end.
18:55 So there'll be some fun things happening there.
18:59 Cowboys-Eagles, these are two of the better teams.
19:04 Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFC, so that'll have some entertainment value.
19:08 But my sleeper most fun game will be Seahawks on the road against the Ravens.
19:12 These are two of the more underestimated teams.
19:15 I think the Seahawks are tops in the NFC West right now.
19:18 Ravens, I believe, are top of the AFC North.
19:23 They're quiet contenders on both sides.
19:25 These are two very good teams.
19:27 If they both make their conference championships, I would not be surprised.
19:32 Ravens have an MVP in Lamar Jackson, who is playing like it right now.
19:36 He was not playing like it last year or the year before, but he is playing like it now
19:40 because they gave him a new offense, they gave him more receivers, and he is doing great
19:44 stuff.
19:45 And then you have the Seahawks.
19:46 They've done a great job drafting and rebuilding and retooling.
19:49 And Geno Smith is having his career resurgence out there.
19:52 He has not regressed by any considerable means.
19:54 He's still that fringe top 10 quarterback in the league, which is great.
19:57 So for me, I'd tune into that one.
20:01 I would too.
20:02 Unfortunately, it's at the same time as a game that nobody outside of New England or
20:07 Washington DC will be watching in any capacity.
20:11 Even in DC.
20:12 Probably not even in DC.
20:13 They have better things to do in Washington right now than watch the Commanders travel
20:16 to Gillette to take on the Patriots.
20:18 If you don't know a single player on the Washington Commanders, good for you.
20:23 It is not a very good team.
20:25 Although, you may recognize a name named Jacoby Brissette.
20:29 They ring a bell.
20:30 They just signed him.
20:31 But Sam Howell is a starting quarterback.
20:33 They just traded away their two best pass rushers during the traded line for draft picks
20:37 to come out next year.
20:38 These are two teams.
20:40 The Commanders are 3-5.
20:41 The Pats are 2-6.
20:43 Neither one's making the playoffs.
20:46 But however, Richelle, this is a home game for the Patriots.
20:48 This is a good chance for them to stream together a couple of wins.
20:51 Maybe regain some confidence.
20:53 Do just enough to lose a really top, top, top tier draft pick.
20:56 I was going to say.
20:57 But at least maybe we can kind of find some guys.
21:00 Our first and second down we talked about.
21:01 We're going to re-up.
21:02 We're going to build on the players that are good.
21:04 This is one of those games and a stretch of games coming up where we can really find out
21:07 who the guys are.
21:08 We have to build around for going forward for rebuild 2.0.
21:12 And I'll start with the Patriots defense versus the Washington offense.
21:14 That should be a strength versus a weakness.
21:16 This is a big mismatch in my opinion.
21:19 Are you all worried about the weapons the Commanders are bringing to the table at Gillette?
21:24 Yeah, totally.
21:25 And like this seems like one of those games that once the season ends, we'd be like, that
21:30 was the draft pick game.
21:31 That was the draft pick game.
21:33 And Curtis Samuel currently dealing with injury for Washington, dealing with a toe injury.
21:37 So he does not practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
21:39 So his availability will be up in the air.
21:42 But he's their wide receiver three.
21:44 Terry McLaurin, John Dotson, their top two wide receivers.
21:49 They're very good.
21:50 They're very, very good.
21:52 I kind of think that they're a bit of a mismatch for the type of cornerbacks that JC Jackson
21:57 and Jack Jones are.
21:58 I think Jonathan Jones might have some success against one of them, but these are not your
22:03 typical prototypical x, you know, six foot three 215 pound 4.4 40 yard dash kind of players
22:11 out there.
22:12 These are a lot more of your your quick and agile players.
22:16 You think a lot more of the like Emanuel Sanders, Marvin, like that type of a mold of a player,
22:22 the ones that are wiggly and able to get space.
22:25 And they're running the air at the enemy, like former Kansas City Chiefs offense.
22:30 They're able to produce Sam Howell, obviously not like a world beater by any means, but
22:34 he's playing well enough.
22:36 He's he's definitely outplaying Matt Jones this year.
22:39 Part of it due to like probably the offensive system.
22:42 But these are two really good wide receivers.
22:45 And Curtis Samuel's playing.
22:46 He's a third really good wide receiver.
22:47 Logan Thomas playing well at tight end.
22:51 Brian Robinson playing some really good running that get games out of there.
22:55 They have a good top five players out there.
23:00 Is it something that the Patriots in theory could match up on?
23:03 Yeah, I could say I could see that if I'm the Patriots.
23:08 This could be, you know, like a Miles Bryant esque game if they want to.
23:13 He's dealing with a chest injury right now.
23:15 But Miles Bryant and Jonathan Jones seem to have the profile of the defensive backs that
23:19 the Patriots would like to match up against Terry McLaurin and Johan Dotson.
23:24 I don't know if that would go well for the Patriots, but I could see that being the case.
23:30 If if I were Steve Belichick in trying to say we have to remove one player from this
23:36 game, I think that that player would be Sam Howell.
23:40 And the big thing to do is one disguise coverage and to pressure him.
23:45 He has had 41 sacks through what eight games.
23:50 He is on pace for like NFL record number of sacks.
23:53 This is a very weak offensive line.
23:56 This is one where if I'm the Patriots and I'm saying this is what I'm going to dedicate
23:59 towards.
24:00 You try and hit and get after Howell all you can.
24:04 And I know that the Patriots defensive front is dealing with injuries.
24:06 Devon Godshaw didn't practice on Thursday with an illness.
24:09 Christian Barmore has been dealing with a knee injury, but he's been great as of late.
24:13 Josh Uche has been dealing with an ankle and toe injury.
24:15 Dietrich Wise is dealing with a shoulder injury.
24:17 So there's a lot.
24:18 Patriots are banged up up front.
24:21 But this is a very big opportunity for the Patriots with Barmore with Anthony Jennings
24:26 out there to Jennings and have a quietly a very good year.
24:30 This is the opportunity for the Patriots and Keon White, my X factor to go out there and
24:36 have a very big performance against this very weak Washington offensive line.
24:41 Because I don't think that the Patriots have the defensive manpower to go toe to toe with
24:45 these commanders skill players on an elongated play.
24:48 They need to make Howell move.
24:50 They need to not let him escape because he can scramble a little bit.
24:55 And they need to make sure that they take advantage of the sack opportunities that they
24:59 get and force the commanders into and long situations as much as they can.
25:04 It's so weird, Rich Hill, how in so many ways, it has never been easier to be an NFL quarterback.
25:10 The rules are just so in your favor.
25:13 They want offense, you can't touch receivers anymore.
25:15 If you breathe on a QB too hard, it's 15 yard penalty.
25:18 But how many like good quarterbacks are there in the NFL right now?
25:22 Three or four.
25:24 And Sam Howell is not one of them.
25:26 But unfortunately, to your point, he's definitely better than Mac Jones in 2023.
25:30 But I don't think he's the kind of guy you have to game plan for specifically.
25:33 I think he's a guy that you can shake him pretty easily.
25:36 Having been sacked 41 times through eight weeks.
25:38 That's just an absurd number of sacks.
25:40 Like five sacks a game.
25:42 Basically, he's averaging.
25:43 It's a lot.
25:44 It's just that's just say that out loud.
25:46 Five sacks a game.
25:47 Yeah, it's just absolutely insane.
25:50 But yeah, I mean, look, I think it's kind of got you forcing mistakes early.
25:52 You can get a couple of picks.
25:53 I can see him taking a couple of deep shots.
25:56 That's why I'm going with Jabril Peppers as my X factor.
25:58 One of those kind of like Jared Goff, Stefan Gilmore, Super Bowl interceptions like throw
26:01 off your back foot up.
26:02 I'll cover zero blitz.
26:04 Force couple interceptions and do what the Patriots did briefly against the Dolphins.
26:08 Get a pick, generate points.
26:11 complimentary football.
26:12 They're capable of doing it.
26:13 They just can't do it all the time.
26:15 But again, I don't like the I do like the match overall, because, again, I think the
26:20 offensive line so weak, the pass rush is good enough.
26:22 And Tim Howell is not a good enough quarterback to compensate for that.
26:25 You make a good point about the coverage mismatches in the secondary.
26:29 But I don't think that'll matter, given how much of a favorite the pages are from on the
26:34 line.
26:35 Yeah, no, and it's it's me having a hard time trying to talk about the commander's offense
26:42 because I don't think they're impressive.
26:44 But it's hard to talk about a team that's unimpressive when the Patriots offense is
26:48 magnitude worse.
26:50 It's hard to do that.
26:52 It's like we're talking like the Patriots offense is 2011 Patriots defense bad, like
26:58 historic levels of badness going against a mediocre team like this commander's offense
27:04 is as average as you can get.
27:06 You look at like the expected points above average that they've created.
27:09 You know, you look across all their plays.
27:11 What is like the average amount of yards the average amount of points a team can expect
27:14 given their offensive circumstances, they are zero, they have zero points above or below
27:21 average and expectation there as middling of an offense as you can get.
27:25 They're not super explosive, but they will just dink and dunk, dink and dunk, dink and
27:30 dunk.
27:31 And that has historically been what's given the Patriots defense problems, because that's
27:35 how the Patriots play their defense.
27:37 They want teams to get rid of their big plays and have to lead 9, 10, 11 play drives to
27:43 get a score.
27:45 And this commander's offense, that's what they do.
27:48 Like, this is not a home run offense.
27:51 And so if I'm the Patriots, I'd be like, a little hesitant to say like, let's run our
27:56 standard defense against this commander's team, because we saw how the Dolphins had
28:02 no problem playing against like the soft zone coverage or whatever it is that the Patriots
28:06 are playing like that in route or that angle route was open every single play for the Dolphins
28:12 against this Patriots defense.
28:14 And I'm sure the commanders watch that.
28:16 And the Patriots cannot just sit back and try and allow the commanders to make a mistake
28:22 because teams are too good these days to do that.
28:25 And they want to, they'll just take what's given to them.
28:27 That's what the enemy does on offense.
28:29 That's what Sam Howell has been chosen to do is that he will just take what's there.
28:34 And the Patriots can't allow that to be how the game is played.
28:37 So to the Denver chill, so defensive prop bets, given the D and conduct offense, given
28:42 what Tim Howell has been finding success doing in 2023, and what he's been unable to do in
28:48 2023.
28:50 Is this the week where the defense generates some points pick six happening for the Patriots
28:55 against the commanders?
28:56 I don't know if they'll put up points, but I can see them putting the Patriots in scoring
29:01 position if that helps.
29:03 I mean, I think also the the commanders are pretty good at protecting the football, their
29:09 numbers are skewed because they turn the ball over five times against the Buffalo Bills
29:13 and then three times against the Cardinals.
29:15 Across their other six games, they have like, four turnovers like that.
29:19 They're not like a turnover happy game, Patriots might get one, like that's not how they play.
29:24 And so I'm not expecting the Patriots to be like, this is a turnover party kind of a game,
29:29 but I can see them getting the opportunity because the Patriots have been good at forcing
29:33 turnovers, you know, five turnovers forced in the past three weeks, I can see them forcing
29:37 one and setting up the offense in good field position.
29:40 I would hope that it happens at the beginning of the game and the Patriots can kind of dictate
29:43 the terms, but I'm not not like holding out an expectation for that.
29:47 Will the Patriots meet the Sam Howell status quo and sack him five times in this game?
29:54 That's a great question.
29:55 If they had like if Uche and Judon were like, good to go, I would say probably but I mean,
30:03 Patriots have what 15 sacks, they're averaging less than like two sacks a game.
30:07 At this point, I'm gonna say no.
30:11 I would like for there to be like interruption, I can see a defensive back hitting a sack,
30:15 I can see a blitz up the middle, although I feel like we haven't seen as much of that
30:17 since Hightower has been gone.
30:19 It's like a blitzing linebacker up the middle.
30:22 And I just don't think they have the horses to be able to pull that off.
30:26 I would love to see a big game from White and Jennings.
30:29 And you know, if Wise is able to go, Uche is able to go, that'd be bonus.
30:33 But I'm not going to hold out hope for it.
30:35 I will say I'm gonna guess at least one bar more sack.
30:41 Speaking of not holding out any hope, Rich Hill, it's a good transition to fourth down
30:45 Patriots offense against the commander's defense.
30:48 Again, much easier road to hoe after the trade deadline.
30:51 Two very big weapons are no longer in Washington.
30:54 No one's happy about that.
30:55 The Patriots offensive line, that was a real question mark I had coming into this.
30:59 Can they stop those two?
31:00 Don't worry about it now.
31:02 However, still a decent defense and the Patriots offense just plain stinks.
31:06 So if you're Bill O'Brien, what's your game plan here?
31:09 Just try and do anything possible to like make a semblance of a football game happen
31:13 or are you trying some new strategies?
31:15 What's your plan here?
31:17 >> It's not a good defense.
31:22 They rank 31st in the league in points allowed, 29th points allowed per drive.
31:28 They rank 29th in adjusted net yards.
31:32 They've allowed like 15 touchdown passes, only have five interceptions.
31:37 Teams have been very efficient through the air, also very efficient through the ground,
31:41 rank 21st in yards allowed per carry.
31:44 They get penalized a fair bit.
31:47 They allow a lot of scores, they give up good field position.
31:53 Can the Patriots take advantage of that?
31:55 >> No.
31:56 >> I don't know.
31:59 Not having Chase Young and Montez Sweat on the rosters, there's no one really behind
32:06 them.
32:07 That's like the big thing.
32:09 They have like some players that have had like some snaps, but they don't really have
32:14 a lot of players.
32:15 Casey Tuhill has been their like rotational third pass rusher, but they're asking a lot
32:20 of underplayed players to elevate here.
32:24 That said, they have some good interior players.
32:27 Duran Payne, Jonathan Allen are two good defensive linemen.
32:30 So up the middle, we'll see how the Patriots hold up against them.
32:36 Kendall Fuller, one of the best cornerbacks in the league, having himself a season.
32:41 Should just avoid him no matter what, cuz Benjamin St. Juice is not as good as Kendall
32:47 Fuller.
32:48 Their first round pick, Emmanuel Forbes, is their third cornerback.
32:51 They famously selected him above Christian Gonzalez.
32:54 So that'll be a noteworthy thing to see how he performs in this game.
32:58 I can see the Patriots definitely testing him and his lankiness and his questionable
33:03 change of direction ability.
33:06 This is potentially going to be a Pop Davis game unless the commanders decide we're gonna
33:10 dedicate Kendall Fuller to covering him.
33:12 And if that's the case, then I have not the foggiest what the Patriots are going to do.
33:17 If I could pick perfect matchups, I would say that what the Patriots are probably gonna
33:22 do is say, okay, Devante Parker and Jujus Mischuster, you're our number one and number
33:25 two.
33:27 And Pop, you're gonna be our third wide receiver.
33:29 You'll be on all of our three receiver sets.
33:32 They've historically used Jujus Mischuster and Parker as the blockers on two wide receiver
33:37 sets.
33:38 They're going back to what they did at the beginning of the season, which is fine.
33:44 But hoping that with those alignments that they can sacrifice Devante.
33:48 Oh, I guess Parker's not gonna play.
33:50 So they're gonna probably sacrifice Jujus Mischuster to Kendall Fuller.
33:55 Honestly, the Patriots are just so banged up.
33:57 I have no idea what they're going to do at wide receiver.
34:00 Is this gonna be finally the time we see Keishon Butte?
34:03 I hope so, because they have nothing else to lose at this point.
34:06 Yeah, I mean, I'm making kind of by default Taequann Thornton my X Factor because like
34:10 he's just like, oh, no, if there was ever a chance for him to do anything as a receiver,
34:16 like he's got a golden opportunity here.
34:19 Parker's out on we didn't talk about that ridiculous hit that was unreal or the refs
34:24 at all.
34:25 And they just blocked out how bad the reffing was.
34:26 So whatever.
34:27 But like if there was ever a chance for Thornton to like emerge as a legitimate part of this
34:32 offense, it is the next couple of weeks.
34:35 Right now with Parker out for who knows how long like he's got to get involved.
34:38 He's I'm not again.
34:40 Maybe I'm like one of the last people to think he's going to be a member of this office.
34:43 They're going to be.
34:44 But like they did two weeks ago, which are three weeks ago, they did take a deep shot
34:48 the Taequann Thornton.
34:50 So it happened.
34:51 I can now say I lived in a time where they threw the ball once deep to Taequann Thornton.
34:56 It was incomplete.
34:57 Nothing happened.
34:58 How did it feel, Alec?
34:59 How did that play feel?
35:00 It was just good to see, man.
35:01 Like like he was fast.
35:03 They wanted speed.
35:04 They wanted that speed.
35:05 But like if Taequann Thornton can't do anything against the Washington commanders at Gillette
35:11 with Bourne out with Parker out, then I may finally be coming back on the first single
35:18 podcast next week and saying I'm officially out on Taequann Thornton.
35:22 So this might be the last time I list him as my offensive X factor.
35:26 Well, maybe it's been unfair of me, but I've been on that one since.
35:30 I know.
35:31 But I mean, that's a fair enough X factor.
35:35 It's easy for me to say Pop Douglas because he is now their top receiver.
35:40 That is the weird truth of the matter is that we're dealing with a six round rookie as being
35:45 the Patriots top offense.
35:47 We are looking at a 2013 level of Patriots offense talent without actually it's worse
35:54 because they had Amendola who's playing well and Edelman who was in and out and they had
35:59 Brady.
36:00 This is worse.
36:02 This is worse than that year.
36:03 This is talent on par with the Cam Newton 2020 Patriots roster where they just literally,
36:10 you know, I think that I'm trying to remember who was Demarius Bird.
36:16 I've asked for him to come back because he was the last receiver that looked like explosive
36:20 or could do a big play.
36:23 I think that it's not a good situation for the Patriots if Pop Douglas is your top option,
36:29 but also the fact that the other players can't do anything.
36:33 And to me, that is, again, I don't think a massive indictment of the players themselves.
36:40 I think it's on the coaching staff.
36:41 I think that you can't have all of these players who, you know, both last year and this year
36:48 have looked so bad after having looked so good on other teams.
36:52 You know, whether we're talking about Juju Smith, Schuster looking like a good viable
36:56 wide receiver for the Chiefs last year, coming here and looking like a ghost, or you see
37:00 Johnnie Smith who couldn't even see the field with the Patriots going on to be more productive
37:05 than any Patriots receiver right now with the Atlanta Falcons.
37:08 Like these are signs of just misuse by the offensive coaching staff.
37:13 And so that's obviously why I want Josh McDaniels to come back.
37:16 Like they need to have someone who knows what to do with the personnel because right now
37:19 it no one no one's using them correctly.
37:21 And I don't have a simple answer for it.
37:24 But the fact that all of these players have separation or not seeing more creative offensive
37:28 plays drawn up to get players open is an indictment of the coaching staff.
37:33 But Pop Douglas is my X factor because he is that number one receiver and he's the only
37:37 player in my mind that has the opportunity to go for 100 yards on a given day.
37:43 Like the other players, maybe they'll get, you know, their their four catches for 30
37:47 yards kind of a thing.
37:48 That's just what we've accepted for the past few years.
37:51 But I think that Pop Douglas is the only player that could go for 100.
37:55 And if the Patriots are going to have any offensive, anything, any offensive production
38:00 whatsoever, they're going to need someone to step up.
38:03 So to that point, we've only talked to the running game at all against Washington.
38:06 Is not a game you'd really focus on the run at all.
38:07 You really kind of air it out.
38:09 I mean, you could run the ball.
38:10 I mean, especially as they're trying to replace two edge defenders.
38:13 I could see the Patriots trying to attack the ends.
38:15 But you look at the Patriots, Trent Brown dealing with an ankle and knee injury hasn't
38:18 practiced through Wednesday and Thursday, he might not go.
38:22 If I'm the Patriots, you're dealing with a fair bit of injury up front to perhaps I would
38:28 just run it behind on way new and city.
38:29 So it's like, let's so play, just let him be in there.
38:31 You don't need to rotate that at all.
38:32 Just like let him stay in there the whole time.
38:36 And like, go for that.
38:37 I could see that being like a good complimentary piece.
38:42 But you're not going to win any games in the NFL this year by just running the ball like
38:46 you like and I also don't think that them having a semblance of a rushing attack will
38:51 do anything to help this passing attack because they're so anemic through the air that no
38:57 amount of ability on the ground is going to make a defense be afraid of what's going on
39:01 in the passing game.
39:02 Well, then it would show some off of the profits for you.
39:06 How many times throughout the course of this game?
39:09 Will we see a run for no gain on first down an incompletion on second down called back
39:15 for a holding a delayed handoff up the middle for no game on second and 20 and then a run.
39:22 I mean a out pass for four yards on third and 20 and a punt on fourth and 16.
39:28 How many times we see something along those lines happen from start to finish three times
39:34 three three times.
39:35 It's got to have it's been way too common, way too common and it'll happen again three
39:40 times.
39:41 All right.
39:42 Will Mac Jones throw another interception?
39:44 Yes.
39:45 One or two.
39:46 One.
39:47 You know, I don't know, but it will set up the commanders for a score whether they do
39:53 it on defense or on offense.
39:56 Are you taking Zeke or Mondra to have more yards on the ground?
39:59 Great question.
40:00 I'm going to go with Mondra.
40:01 I think Ezekiel Elliott has been giving the Patriots everything he can.
40:06 I think that for Mondra is just the better player.
40:09 Will Farrow Brown have a touchdown in this game?
40:12 I hope so.
40:13 I was this close.
40:14 I'm putting my fingers very close together for the podcast listeners.
40:17 I was this close to making him my X factor because we talk about who are the most exciting
40:22 players on the Patriots team.
40:24 Every time the ball goes to Farrow Brown, I hold my breath and just wonder what's going
40:29 to happen.
40:30 There is only seven catches for 170 yards by a he has more receiving yards than Gaseki
40:37 Parker or Juju Smith Schuster.
40:39 They have three times the amount of targets, three to four times actually, but he's been
40:45 a good blocker.
40:47 He's been an exciting receiver and they should have used him more.
40:52 Even though he looks like he's running with sand in his pants, it's exciting and I'll
40:56 watch that.
40:57 Oh, Rich, what are we doing?
40:58 What are we doing with our lives talking about this?
40:59 What's wrong with me?
41:00 All right, let's get out of here.
41:01 This sucks.
41:02 Let's go to predictions.
41:03 Man.
41:04 All right.
41:05 So I, uh, I tried a little strategy out last week saying I'm picking against the Patriots
41:12 from now on until they lose a game.
41:15 It lasted exactly one week.
41:16 My experiment.
41:17 However, you had the, you had the page is winning against the dolphins like an idiot
41:20 and I had the dolphins winning.
41:22 So I stick with hammer this week.
41:25 I'm taking the pads in this one, uh, at home to just bad teams.
41:30 Someone has to win.
41:32 I think when two bad teams are going up against each other, the edge comes from home for the
41:35 advantage and the coaching staff, uh, despite the incompetence we've seen from the coaching
41:40 staff, there's still a better coach to have their Washington.
41:42 I like the Patriots in this one, something like 24 to 18.
41:47 Yeah.
41:48 Um, I don't know, man.
41:52 Oh geez.
41:53 I, I feel like we are, you know, like when, when the end of a player's career is here
42:00 and like, they're like, this is, this is this year for the Patriots and like this current
42:08 era.
42:09 Um, maybe Bill Belichick can have some sort of revitalization next year, but like this
42:15 year is done.
42:16 They, they, they were just completely embarrassed at multiple points this year.
42:23 Um, I wouldn't be surprised if the commanders pulled this off.
42:27 It doesn't have to be a huge blowout or anything like that, but this Patriots offense has been
42:33 so bad and with born out with Parker and Smith, like Parker out Smith Schuster, not producing,
42:43 I don't know how the Patriots are planning on moving the ball unless they just run it.
42:47 And in which case the commanders should stack the box and say, good luck throwing it to
42:53 Jalen Rieger.
42:55 I don't know.
42:57 I have the commanders winning this one, like 17 to 13.
43:02 I could see it being a late score from the commanders or something like that, but I can
43:06 see this being a game that we look back at and are just like, Oh, that was a, the ending
43:13 with a whimper.
43:14 I mean, again, like the good news about this kind of season is like, if we are coming back
43:20 here talking about a command, great one stop spot closer to a top five draft pick.
43:26 Like there's, there's good things coming from a loss at this point, but still losing to
43:30 Washington at home.
43:33 That's painful, really painful.
43:36 Like that's one of those teams.
43:37 They only play once every four years, but New England always beats the crap out of Washington.
43:41 I remember the old seven season.
43:42 It was like 56 to seven.
43:44 There's something ridiculous.
43:45 You know, I remember one of those Gronkowski catches where he like stiff armed six players
43:49 and like was at the sideline and they gave up and he just kept going.
43:54 Some good highlights from these games.
43:56 Those are the games I miss, but I guess better to have had it and I never have had it.
44:01 Hopefully I don't even care who's right.
44:02 I think either way there's solace to be taken in the results of this game.
44:07 But all how the mighty have fallen for a chill, I guess.
44:12 Let's leave it at that.
44:13 And for me, I just want to be able to lean into the suck.
44:16 I just want to be able to lean fully into the like, don't even play the veterans anymore.
44:22 Like it's when you know that the team isn't going to go anywhere.
44:27 Commit to seeing what the younger players can do.
44:30 I want to see that.
44:31 They're the fact that they're putting out the just ghosts of wide like veteran wide
44:35 receivers instead of just letting bootay play.
44:39 That's the most frustrating part is if you're not going to put make the competitive team
44:43 at least put in like some players with a little bit more upside than what we've been watching.
44:48 And then worst case scenario, you get the same result.
44:51 It's true.
44:52 Again, there's another thing.
44:55 There were times when if the pages lost a game, I would just be stewing for like hours
45:00 afterwards.
45:01 And now I'm kind of coming in expecting a loss and I'm enjoying the wins when they happen.
45:05 It's kind of like a bunch of one week seasons from here on out.
45:09 Winds are great.
45:10 Losses are like, all right, well, maybe next week it's fine.
45:13 And I just want to come out of this season in December just unscathed and not an alcoholic.
45:19 Those are my two balls.
45:21 Well, we'll see.
45:25 And hopefully we'll be breaking down some good news, whatever it might be next week.
45:29 Alec, do you have any final thoughts on week nine and the Patriots commanders?
45:35 The good news is by this time next week, when the week's over the season, there'll be more
45:38 than half done.
45:39 So we're over the hump rich home stretch from there on out.
45:43 Thank goodness.
45:44 And until next time, Alec, you have a good one.
45:46 You do buddy.
45:47 See you later.
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