Talks, Turmoil & Trump 🤯 | CrossTalk Bullhorns Break It Down!

3 days ago

In this episode of CrossTalk Bullhorns, host Peter Lavelle is joined by George Szamuely and Mark Sleboda to unpack the latest chaos in global politics and diplomacy.

🔥 Key topics discussed:
– Can Iran trust Trump again in any nuclear deal?
– What’s REALLY going on with U.S. policy on Ukraine?
– The internal contradictions of Washington’s foreign strategy
– A possible global trade war erupting on multiple fronts
– How shifting alliances are reshaping the world order

💬 The panel brings sharp analysis, diverse perspectives, and no-nonsense commentary on the major geopolitical flashpoints of today.

🎙️ Guests:
– George Szamuely (Senior Research Fellow, Global Policy Institute)
– Mark Sleboda (International Affairs and Security Analyst)

📺 Don’t miss this intense conversation on diplomacy, deception, and the dangerous games of geopolitics.

#CrossTalk #Bullhorns #IranDeal #Trump #UkraineCrisis #GlobalTradeWar #PeterLavelle #GeorgeSzamuely #MarkSleboda #RTNews #GeopoliticsToday #USForeignPolicy #MiddleEastTensions #UkraineConflict #WorldOrderShift
#CrossTalk
#Bullhorns
#IranDeal
#Trump2025
#USForeignPolicy
#UkraineWar
#RTNews
#MiddleEastPolitics
#PeterLavelle
#GeorgeSzamuely
#MarkSleboda
#DiplomacyCrisis
#Geopolitics2025
#TradeWar
#GlobalPolitics
#WorldNews
#USvsIran
#TehranTrust
#UkraineUpdate
#BRICSvsWest

Transcript

00:00Welcome to Crosstalk Bullhorns, where all things are considered. I'm Peter Lavelle.

00:18Even if Iran is interested in a deal, why would Iran trust Trump? Also, where does Washington's

00:24policy on Ukraine stand? Well, I guess it depends on who you ask in the administration.

00:30Meanwhile, there's a global trade war. To discuss these issues and more, I'm joined by my guest,

00:35George Samueli in Budapest. He's a podcaster at The Gaggle, which can be found on YouTube and

00:39Locals. And here in Moscow, we cross to Mark Sloboda. He is an international relations and

00:44security analyst. All right, gentlemen, Crosstalk rules in effect. That means you can jump anytime

00:48you want, and I always appreciate it. All right, let's start out with Mark here in Moscow. Before

00:52we talk about the talks that went on in Moscow and in Oman, just a very general, but I think a very

00:59important question, what is going on in the world, Mark? I mean, because, I mean, all three

01:05of us, you know, we're news junkies. I mean, this is what we do. It's hard to keep up. It's really hard

01:13to keep up. What is there a paradigm shift here going on? I mean, this, I, you know, I want to talk

01:20about Ukraine and Iran, obviously, but the trade war is kind of a, it's not an epiphenomenon of what

01:28we're seeing. Go ahead, Mark. Yeah, so zoom out, big picture view, right? What is going on now in

01:34recent years and in the next few years? Exactly the terminology used, a paradigm shift, right?

01:42Geopolitical tectonic shakes. The U.S.-led Western global hegemony, that unipolar world order is over,

01:52but nothing has solidly arisen to replace it yet. So we're living in an amorphous and extremely

02:00dangerous time. The conflict in Ukraine on its own was already a world order changing conflict,

02:09but that has been exacerbated in recent days with potentials for conflicts in the Persian Gulf with

02:17Iran. The U.S. obvious pivot with the intent to provoke a war with China and the Pacific,

02:23and now Trump's global trade war, where he is attempting to reset the conditions of the global

02:32neoliberal system of globalization that the U.S. itself created, no longer serving the U.S.'s purposes,

02:41and Trump, rather than negotiating new deals, is attempting to dictate it at the barrel of a

02:49tariff gun to the whole world at once. And what he's doing more than anything else is uniting the

02:58rest of the world in suspicion and defiance of the United States. Yeah, because, you know, George,

03:05I think Mark describes it very well, but can Trump pull it off? I mean, we have, all three of us have

03:11discussed for years and years how American industry has been hollowed out. It's basically a financialized

03:18economy. Is that enough to end one system and impose another, as Mark said, at the end of a tariff

03:27gun? Because all of these things that we're going to talk about today are interrelated, George.

03:32Well, you're right, Peter, and it's very, very hard to say whether Trump will indeed succeed in what

03:39he's trying to do. But there's no question that for many years, American policymakers, American pundits

03:46have articulated the problem, which is that this empire that the United States has been running since

03:541945, but also especially since 1991, isn't serving the interests of the American people.

04:02It's serving the periphery of the empire, but it's not serving the Americans. And so there was a leader

04:09was bound to come along. I mean, there was Ross Perot 30 years ago, there was Pat Buchanan, and now

04:15finally Trump, who's saying, hey, we need to do something about this, because the American people are

04:21really getting very little out of it, while everyone else is getting rich. And it's not just simply the

04:26Europeans are getting very rich. And in exchange for these security guarantees, they have a very

04:31comfortable lifestyle. And they're running trade surpluses with the United States, which means

04:38essentially jobs in the United States are being exported to Europe. And it's also true in South

04:43Korea. It's also true in Japan. And then, of course, there was the big enchilada, which was China

04:50bringing China into the world trading system. So there was bound to come along a leader who was

04:55going to challenge that. The question then is, the one that you asked me, is will Trump succeed?

05:01Well, we don't know. I mean, there's obviously huge resistance towards it. But I do think that

05:08it is a healthy phenomenon. I don't think it's anything that one should be against that when

05:14a United States articulates national interest. They said, well, we're not running an empire. We're

05:20concerned with what's good for Americans. And that's what all political leaders around the world

05:25should be. And I think that's why Sergei Lavrov the other day in Turkey said, we're on the same page

05:32as the United States. The new American leadership is concerned with their own national interest.

05:39We also are concerned with our national interest. Therefore, there is something to talk about.

05:43And I think that could and should be the basis for some kind of genuine diplomatic engagement among

05:51the great power. Yeah, well, having a trillion dollar defense budget is kind of an insurance policy

05:56that the U.S. will impose its will. I'm not convinced that Trump's approach is good for the

06:02American people. It will be, as usual, it'll be good for very, very wealthy people that advance

06:08their interests here. But let's stick to the agenda. Mark, there was the meeting in Oman.

06:14It was built up. A lot of threatening language coming from the administration, particularly Donald

06:21Trump and his esteemed guest, Benjamin Netanyahu, in the Oval Office. And then it was agreed to have

06:28more talks, which is good, Mark. Yeah. So right off the bat, the U.S. is already attempting to,

06:41shall we say, hoodwink Iran, right? Evidently, it was agreed that these talks would be mostly kept quiet

06:49and that they would be indirect. So the Trump administration goes right out and announces the

06:56talks and says in contradiction to what the Iranians that they would be direct consultations that can't

07:04make the Iranians happy right right out of the gate. But they did meet in Oman, which, you know,

07:11has a diplomatic tradition of, shall we say, neutrality of being beyond the geopolitical fray.

07:21And Witkoff, who evidently is the only diplomat that Donald Trump has, this real estate developer,

07:32with the demeanor, with complete lack of any diplomatic training in any international relations

07:39education, he's the equivalent of a used car salesman, as far as I'm concerned. But he's Trump's

07:45friend, and he's not a member of the deep state, so he doesn't come with the ideological baggage.

07:50So, you know, take the good with the bad there, I guess. But they met with the Iranian foreign

07:57minister, Aragchi, and they described the talks as constructive and that they will continue.

08:03The talks were held indirectly with the Omanis shuttling between rooms, but at the end,

08:09they did come to each other and shake hands and say hi face to face. I think the reality here is

08:18that neither the United States nor Iran wants war right now. I agree. Right now, right? We'll leave

08:25that caveat there. The U.S. simply is in a very bad geo-military position. It doesn't have enough

08:31air defense missiles. It doesn't have enough missiles. It's wasted too many in Ukraine. It needs

08:37to pivot to China. It's playing whack-a-mole against the Houthis in Yemen. And it's wasting

08:43and wasting something it doesn't have enough of. It can't afford a war defending Israel from Iran's

08:50much more powerful and more plentiful long-range strike capability than they've ever had before.

08:59Iran is facing threats to its sovereignty in these talks, but it doesn't really want a nuclear weapon.

09:07It wants nuclear breakout capability. Enriching uranium is a right of all countries who are not

09:15nuclear weapon holders.

09:17And is it having great—but being at a breakout point, that's their insurance policy.

09:23That's their insurance policy. But they can afford, I think, to placate the U.S. a little bit because

09:30Russia, with their new strategic partnership, is building them an air defense and electronic warfare

09:37deterrent, a conventional deterrent. They just need time. They need a few years to get that in place

09:44and as their partnerships with Russia and China solidify. So I think that both countries want to

09:52play for a time right now. The only one who wants a war is Netanyahu.

09:56Yeah. Well, you know, George, you and I have talked about this a lot. And we all know that it was

10:01Donald Trump that walked away from the JCPOA. But that's the only thing they're actually going to get.

10:08It's going to be 2.0. Because everything else that members of the Trump administration have demanded,

10:15you know, getting rid of long-range missiles, cutting off its support for different resistance

10:23groups. None of that's going to happen here. But a nuclear deal. And that's why I said in my

10:30introduction, why would Iran trust this guy, Donald Trump? He walked away from it. But that's the only

10:34thing, really, the only game in town. George?

10:37Well, that's an excellent question. And it's absolutely true that that's the best deal that

10:44is possible. Because Iran has made clear, first of all, that we're not interested in nuclear weapons.

10:51And we are interested in, and this is said by the Iranian foreign minister, we are interested in

10:59assuaging the security concerns of other countries. And therefore, we're willing to work with them and

11:06say, yeah, we don't want a nuclear weapons capability. That deal, a possible deal like

11:13that, is on the table. Now, the problem is, will Trump take it? Because there are going to be a lot

11:20of voices in his ear, especially from the Israel lobby, from Netanyahu, who are going to be pressing

11:26him and telling him horrific stories about, you know, Iran, the, you know, death to America, and these

11:31are crazies, and, you know, they want to destroy Israel, and they want to destroy the United States.

11:37You can't possibly give them anything. And that might be persuasive. On the other hand,

11:42if he signs a deal, which is simply JCPOA 2.0, that would be a big diplomatic victory for him.

11:49And he can then parade around and say, give me my Nobel Prize already. I accomplished this.

11:56And, but the problem here is the same thing as what happened with North Korea during his first term,

12:04is that he made all the right gestures. And then it seemed like it was a serious diplomatic effort

12:09to achieve security in the Korean peninsula. But he allowed others to intervene, namely John Bolton,

12:19to ensure that there would be no deal. He still talks nostalgically about his great relationship with

12:25the North Korean leader. But the fact is that he had an opportunity to move.

12:32Before we go to the break, Mark, I mean, is Trump just turning out more bark than bite?

12:37Yeah, I mean, I think that's, I mean, Trump has a lot of bite. There's no question there. He's,

12:43he's a rabid dog, right? And he will go off sometimes unexpectedly. But most of it, most of it is

12:50bluster, as we've seen, I think, you know, with the tariff war. But my real fear is that what the

12:57Trump administration really wants with Iran is not this question of nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence

13:04makes clear that Iran has no nuclear weapons program. What I'm afraid is they're going to demand

13:11that Iran stop all support for the Houthis, for Hezbollah. All right, Mark, on that, as usual,

13:18we have to go to a hard break. And after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on some

13:22real new stay with RT. Welcome back to Crosstalk Bullhorns, where all things are considered. I'm

13:32Peter Lebeau. All right. I want to go back to Mark. You want to finish your point before we talk about

13:37Ukraine? Sure. I think just the real danger is that behind these demands on nuclear enrichment,

13:44that the Trump administration will also make demands that Iran stop all support, you know,

13:49for the mostly Shia axis of resistance, because the U.S. is allowed to have proxy states around the

13:57world, including Ukraine. But Iran isn't. And if that that might be a demand on Iran's sovereignty and

14:06foreign policy that it can't allow. And that may be and that may placate, at least from a policy

14:13perspective, of the Israelis, if the U.S. isn't determined to have a military conflict. All right,

14:19George, let's switch gears, because a lot happened, or I think it happened when it comes to Ukraine

14:25these past few days here. We have our cast of characters. We have Steve Witkoff, again, a jack of

14:32all trades, as Mark pointed out. And then we have Keith Kellogg. And they're telling very different

14:36stories about the Trump administration's policy on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Russians are still

14:43listening to a wide variety, a wide array of ideas coming from the West. They're sitting pretty,

14:51sitting patient. George. Well, that's right. And again, we should at least credit Trump for making

15:00an effort. I mean, he is, I think, making an effort to bring this war to an end. But he's trying to do

15:05all sorts of different things, hoping that something or other will work out. So with Ukraine,

15:12he's hoping to persuade them, well, if we sign this extraction deal with minerals, with gas from

15:19infrastructure ports, you will take that as a security guarantees. And then you'll stop,

15:25you know, nagging us about NATO membership or a military security guarantee. So far,

15:32the Ukrainians have said, no, they might sign this deal. But they have said, no, we're not going to

15:36take this as a security guarantee. But in the meantime, you've got Kellogg talking about,

15:43it's hard enough because he's walked back his original statement, but simply saying that, well,

15:49we're going to have a kind of a division of Ukraine along the lines that we divided Germany.

15:54We're going to have a kind of a Western half occupied by European forces. Then we're going

16:01to have something in the middle. That's going to be Ukraine. Then we're going to have a demilitarized

16:05zone. And then we're going to have the Eastern part occupied by Russia. And although it does sound

16:10crazy, however, they've moved the ball a long way from where the United States-

16:17Well, I don't know. I'm not really sure.

16:19A few months ago. I mean, this is a, we're talking about a very different situation now than we were.

16:24Yeah, but I think that there are two different things in play here and they can't, they can't

16:29be maintained for much longer because there's, I'm going to direct this to Mark. There's an acceptance

16:35that the US and Russia want to improve relations. Okay. That's one layer of this, but that's not

16:42going to fix Ukraine. And I think that's the frustration that the Russians have, because again,

16:47if you go through, even people that are paying attention to the story, there's so much obsession

16:52with the ceasefire. I don't know how many times it has to be said, the Russians want a peace deal

16:57and then we can have a ceasefire. But Witkoff and Kellogg and everybody else is still in,

17:03well, we have to have a ceasefire. I mean, this is why it's a log jam. And I'm getting frustrated

17:08because there's a lot of talk, but there's not much movement. Mark.

17:12Yeah, I think the Russians actually aren't frustrated. I think they're fairly content

17:16with what's going on because they're not interested in a ceasefire. And I think they realize

17:20that any idea of a diplomatic settlement, at least for the time being is dead in the water.

17:26Right. And they're not just sitting there. They're going straight forward on the ground,

17:31major offensive, starting new pressure all along the contact line. They're not pausing or hesitating

17:38or scratching their head for a second. The Trump administration, meanwhile, is floundering like

17:44a dying fish topped out of the water. There's no agreement within the administration. Trump has

17:50some idea. Witkoff and a few others seem more inclined to the way to end this conflict if you're

17:58serious is to agree to Russia's SMO demands because Russia has all the cards. Meanwhile, figures like

18:07Waltz and Kellogg and likely Rubio are putting effectively trying to put a spanner in the

18:15works. They're trying to stop at all of this top of a ceasefire of British and French troops on the

18:21ground of occupation zones. That's like putting a red flag in front of Russia. Right. There's no way

18:27they'll agree to any of that. And I think they know that. So I think if Trump is smart, he'll walk away

18:34from this mess. You know, wipe his hands, say it's all Biden's fault. I tried. Well, well, well,

18:41well, Mark, I mean, President Trump extended the sanctions against Russia. Let me go to George,

18:49George, because, again, you have to have talks to get some kind of resolution. And I'm not against

18:55it. And you know that. OK, but I want results, too. So, OK, the sanctions are extended. I guess

19:02the big tell is going to be if there's going to be a big appropriations for Ukraine that will tell us

19:07what this administration's about. Just because you want something is you can't will it. OK,

19:13I sometimes think Trump just wants to will something. OK. And when you have minions like

19:19he has surrounded around him and that that cabinet meeting he had was disgusting. I mean,

19:25it's better for not for me to say. But anyway, George, what's the next step here? Because

19:32I'm going to end the conflict in one day. I want it done in the first hundred days. I want it done

19:40before Easter. You can't keep doing this. Well, you can't. I mean, on the other hand, of course,

19:46if he succeeds, then I don't everyone will forget. Oh, I know you said it'll be one day. You said it'll

19:50be 100 days. But but nonetheless, even if it takes six months or a year. Well, I think even

19:56Whitwickoff said he said Trump said he would end it in one day. He just didn't say which day,

20:00which I thought was a good. That's right. So I think he is moving. I mean, he's already moved

20:08a great deal from where the U.S. position was. The question then is he I think Mark alluded to this.

20:16I mean, there can be no settlement unless the United States essentially cuts off Ukraine and

20:23said, well, that's it. We're not going to do this anymore. You know, we have to bring this thing to

20:26an end. It's in your interest that basically that you stop the killing of your own people.

20:32It's in Europe's interest. It's in Russia's interest. It's in the world's interest for this

20:36war to come to an end. The question then is and I think this is what Trump thinks. I mean,

20:40I think Trump seems to be pretty much alone. And I assume Whitcoff is because he's simply Trump's

20:46man. He's just believes this. That's clearly where they where they want to go. Question then is,

20:52does Trump have the strength, the will, strength to actually get that done? I'm not at all sure he

20:58has. It's the same with Iran. I mean, is it is he ready to accept a deal that's obviously

21:03available to him? Here's something that's available. But but Trump is kind of trying all sorts of

21:08different things. You know, well, he tried to keep Ukraine happy. Then he tries to keep Russia

21:13happy. Then he tries to then he expresses his frustration with both sides, sometimes with

21:17Russia, sometimes with Ukraine. So he's not really getting there. But he may he may yet get there.

21:22Well, I think the problem is, you know, Mark, I think that the there are America doesn't have

21:28diplomats. Maybe maybe Whitcoff is the only thing they have. OK. And, you know, and there are pluses

21:34and minuses. I mean, I like a straight a straight shooter. I thought the interview with with Tucker

21:39Carlson was interesting, not enlightening, but it kind of was a window into a way maybe how Trump

21:45thinks. But it's the U.S. just isn't interested in compromise. That's the problem. It has to be

21:54a win lose. That's how they see the world and everything. And that's why they're having such

22:00difficulty coming to terms. You're not going to get everything you want. That's what diplomacy is

22:06about. Yeah, I think, first of all, there's no recognition in the United States that the U.S.

22:11has lost this war. They're not some, you know, third party mediating this conflict. They are the

22:18principal instigator of this conflict. And the principal one carrying it. The New York Times has

22:23admitted that in in detail of how involved they were. Mark Rubio has admitted that it was a that it

22:29was a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. But they haven't come to they can't admit that they

22:35lost the war. And, you know, Trump still has a child's mentality of of thinking he can bluster and

22:43demand and be handed everything on a plate. I mean, he referred to all the world's countries coming to

22:48his door and kissing his posterior. Right. And laughing about it like, oh, sir, sir, we'll give you

22:57whatever we want. Russia, China. They're not going to give you everything you want. They're they're in

23:02a different league and they're not U.S. vassal states. I think that that Trump is is going to

23:08waffle and he's going to hesitate. I predict that he's going to try to, you know, get he's going to

23:15get stuck in a middle road where he's not going to approve any new big weapons package for Ukraine,

23:22although U.S. long term contracts through the military industrial complex will continue.

23:28But likewise, he's going to increase sanctions against Russia as as as part of Putin is not

23:36agreeing to my. But but Mark, again, going back, how does that improve the bilateral relationship?

23:43You these two things cannot exist in the air at the same time.

23:47And well, that's what the Russians want. They want bilateral to be a different track

23:52from the Ukraine settlement. Right. And it's not clear yet that they can be they are moving forward

24:00slowly on the bilateral track. But the you know, any idea of a peace settlement is is I'm sorry,

24:08it's rip. It's dead. I don't I don't think there's any possibility of it, at least for the next year,

24:12if not more. The rush. That's what the Russians are talking about. And Russia is going to launch

24:16major offensives. They're happening right now. That is not going to help discussions any any in

24:24that matter either. So I think, you know, we're going to be in a muddled time for the foreseeable

24:31future on this. And the only one with with motivation, drive and purpose is Russia. And it's

24:38on the battlefield. So, George, this is turning into Trump's war.

24:44Well, it is. And I think that's Trump's problem. I think he could have absolutely on day one have

24:51walked away from this war. So Victoria, Victoria Newland won.

24:56Yeah. I mean, and this was urged upon him by Steve Bannon from, you know, from November the 5th

25:02through to January the 20th. Bannon said over and over again at his show, walk away from this

25:08right away because it becomes your war. And really with Trump, that the clock is ticking. I mean,

25:15you know, contrary to all the talk about he's going to run for a third term, the clock is ticking.

25:20And there's very limited time now available. And there's all sorts of other problems. And then

25:26he's going to be in the same situation that Biden was. And I think that in the face of a

25:32Russian offensive, I mean, if things don't go well for Ukraine, I think that will escalate

25:37American involvement. I think Trump will get, you know, he's already expressing, I don't like all

25:41this bombing and I'm really angry. I think that will escalate Trump's involvement.

25:45And I think that just moves up the timeline for Marco Rubio to declare he's going to run for

25:50president of the United States because Trump couldn't end these wars. As all the time we have,

25:55I want to thank my guests in Budapest and here in Moscow. And of course, I want to thank our viewers

25:58for watching us here, RT. See you next time. And remember, crosstalk rules.

Talks, Turmoil & Trump 🤯 | CrossTalk Bullhorns Break It Down! | Forbidden News

Category

Transcript

Recommended