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Major developments on multiple fronts — and Alexander Mercouris is here to break them down with clarity and depth:
🔻 Kiev finally admits it’s running short of troops, as Russian forces maintain vast firepower superiority on the battlefield.
🇬🇧 Meanwhile in the UK, Keir Starmer’s fragile coalition begins to unravel under pressure and contradictions.
These are not isolated events — they are signs of deep geopolitical and domestic shifts.
🧠 Watch the full analysis for calm, rational insight into the global chessboard — where every move matters.
Major developments on multiple fronts — and Alexander Mercouris is here to break them down with clarity and depth:
🔻 Kiev finally admits it’s running short of troops, as Russian forces maintain vast firepower superiority on the battlefield.
🇬🇧 Meanwhile in the UK, Keir Starmer’s fragile coalition begins to unravel under pressure and contradictions.
These are not isolated events — they are signs of deep geopolitical and domestic shifts.
🧠 Watch the full analysis for calm, rational insight into the global chessboard — where every move matters.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00:00Good day. Today is Friday 11th April 2025 and the standoff in terms of tariffs between the
00:00:09United States and China continues. The United States confirmed last night that the actual
00:00:15tariff on Chinese goods stands at 145% of the value and today, earlier today, the Chinese
00:00:25State Council retaliated by increasing its tariffs on American goods exported to China
00:00:33to 125%. I'm not going to devote much more of this programme to the topic of tariffs. I said most of
00:00:41what I wanted to say about it yesterday. Just a few things briefly. Firstly, when we have tariffs
00:00:51on this scale, 145% in terms of Chinese goods exported to the United States and 125% in terms
00:01:01of goods exported to China, any American goods exported to China, any further increase in
00:01:10tariffs over and above these numbers is purely demonstrative. It can make no realistic difference.
00:01:19Basically, each of these countries is now conducting an economic blockade against the other. I think
00:01:30that is clear. President Trump yesterday made comments saying that he couldn't imagine any
00:01:38circumstance in which he would raise tariffs on China even further. And in its announcement of the
00:01:47latest tariffs that China is now imposing on the United States, the ones that have brought tariffs up to
00:01:54the level of 125%, China's State Council essentially said the same, that from this point on, if the United
00:02:03States continues to increase tariffs, China will not respond. There is no point in doing so. So there we are.
00:02:10We are in a situation where the two biggest economies are no longer trading with each other. At some point, I expect that they
00:02:21will begin discussions. In the meantime, turbulence in the financial markets continues. Yesterday, the financial markets fell.
00:02:31Today, they are a little more steady as I speak. The dollar, however, continues to lose value. And incidentally, we've had more comments, more reports over the course of the last few hours, explaining some of the events of the last couple of days.
00:02:53It seems, according to American US media reports, that the sudden sell-off of treasuries, the sell-off of treasuries, which began some days ago, and which put pressure on President Trump, causing him to reverse his reciprocal tariffs,
00:03:18to pause his reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, it seems that that sell-off of treasuries was not launched by China, and was not the result of panicked investors pulling their money out of treasuries.
00:03:36It was actually initiated by Japan, by the Japanese central bank, the biggest holder of all of US treasuries.
00:03:49It began a process of selling treasuries, perhaps with the intention of obliging the United States to take the step which it did,
00:04:01which is to pull back on its reciprocal tariffs against Japan, which is to pull back on its reciprocal tariffs against Japan.
00:04:08We are, to repeat again, the point that I made yesterday, still left with 10% tariffs, basically across the board,
00:04:17affecting nearly all the countries that the United States trades with to any significant degree.
00:04:25We also have higher tariffs on products like motor vehicles and aluminium imported to the United States.
00:04:36These colossal tariffs against China, of course, also remain in place.
00:04:42And it is important to say that China remains, is the United States, or was the United States' biggest single trade partner
00:04:52and biggest single supplier of finished goods.
00:04:58So, some people have done calculations and they've decided that the United States still has overall tariffs of around 15%
00:05:08on all imported goods, on the value of all imported goods.
00:05:12The reality is that with the trade with China stopped, with consumer goods from China no longer able to access the US market,
00:05:24we will no doubt start to see consumer goods shortages start to appear in the United States at some point over the next few weeks and months.
00:05:34Anyway, there we are. That's where we are.
00:05:36Well, I expect and assume that at some point the United States and China will meet and will have discussions with each other
00:05:48and will take steps to try to bring the tariffs that each has imposed against the other down.
00:05:55But to repeat what I've been saying in several programmes now, the world that existed before, the world of globalisation, has ended.
00:06:09Keir Starmer might be saying it also, but that doesn't make it untrue.
00:06:15Incidentally, since I am on the topic of Keir Starmer, just to say that he has actually been visiting some factories
00:06:23and talking to a number of people about the economic situation that Britain finds itself in,
00:06:31he has rather astonishingly confirmed that not only has he not spoken to Donald Trump since the tariff crisis began,
00:06:40but apparently he's made no attempt to speak to Donald Trump, which, given the effect on the British economy, does strike me as extraordinary.
00:06:51But anyway, never mind. Anyway, from what I can understand, from what I'm hearing,
00:06:56when he does actually go to factories and places like that,
00:07:00he very quickly reverts to that topic, which is back as his comfort zone, which is, of course, Ukraine.
00:07:09I discussed this in a recent programme. I expressed my incredulity at the extent of Keir Starmer's fixation with this subject.
00:07:24I will return to it later, further, at a later point in this programme,
00:07:30because most of this programme, in fact, is going to be devoted to the topic of Ukraine.
00:07:38And the conflict there, and where the conflict is heading.
00:07:45Now, in order to do that, I think the point, it's a good point, in fact,
00:07:50to give another brief summary of the military situation on the battlefronts.
00:07:56As I said in my programme yesterday, General Sirsky, the military chief of the Ukrainian military,
00:08:03has now admitted, or rather has now confirmed, that we are indeed in the early stages of a Russian offensive.
00:08:12And he's made some rather interesting points.
00:08:15I have now managed to read the entire interview in which he made those points.
00:08:22Though you can find an interesting and good summary of the interview provided by Simplicius, the thinker.
00:08:35You can find it on Simplicius's blog.
00:08:38Now, there's a number of things to say.
00:08:40Firstly, he admits that the Russians are becoming more active and that an offensive is underway.
00:08:47His interviewer asked him how long he thought the Russians could sustain this new offensive.
00:08:58And I noticed that he evaded giving an answer.
00:09:02He also acknowledged that the Russians have no problems with manpower.
00:09:07He said that their forces increase in size by around 9,000 men, 9,000 to 10,000 men every month.
00:09:17He says that at the beginning of the year, the Russians, the Russian army within Ukraine, numbered around 600,000.
00:09:28He now says that the Russian forces, the Russian army has increased, that it is closer to 635,000, that it has actually grown significantly since January and continues to do so.
00:09:48Now, a number of people have done back of the envelope calculations.
00:09:52The Russians say that the Russians say that their forces are growing, rather the number of people joining up, signing contracts with the Russian army every month is around 30,000.
00:10:07And people are deducting this 9,000 total from that figure of 30,000.
00:10:21And they are coming to a back of the envelope calculation.
00:10:26That must mean that the Russians, since their forces are growing at a rate of around 9,000 a month,
00:10:32that must mean that their losses in any one month are around 21,000.
00:10:38So that out of the 30,000 who are recruited every month, 21,000 replace those who have been lost,
00:10:50and another 9,000 supplement and increase the total.
00:10:56Now, as St. Blickius, the thinker, correctly says, it's probably unwise to make that assumption.
00:11:01It's more likely the case that large numbers of men are leaving the Russian army as part of a regular churn.
00:11:13Simplicius, the thinker, says that every month, Russian soldiers who have contracts with the army leave the army and return to civilian life in some form, that this does go on.
00:11:34So it's difficult to make back of the envelope assumptions and make us assume that, in fact, the Russians are suffering losses, dead and wounded, of 21,000 a month.
00:11:53Simplicius, the thinker, suggests that maybe losses are half that figure, 21,000 a month,
00:12:03in which case he guesstimates that the actual Russian losses killed in action might be 150 daily,
00:12:13with perhaps a further 300 irrecoverable losses as well.
00:12:20Well, who knows, I'm not going to try and make back of the envelope calculations of the same kind.
00:12:29Suffice to say that the numbers are increasing and the Russian army every month in Ukraine gets bigger and bigger.
00:12:40By the way, I would add that, in my opinion, a very large proportion of those additional 21,000 men that we have been hearing about
00:12:51are being positioned in various reserve formations that are being held back inside Russia itself for all sorts of reasons.
00:13:00Now, the other claim that he made, that Pusirsky made, is that Ukraine, by contrast, is short of men.
00:13:15It needs a mobilisation figure of 30,000 a month in order to maintain parity with where it is.
00:13:26And though he didn't exactly say it, it was pretty clear that he was not getting those 30,000 men each month.
00:13:33In fact, a very large part of the interview is devoted to the question of the failure of mobilisation in Ukraine.
00:13:46I say failure, the lack of mobilisation in Ukraine.
00:13:52Well, there we are.
00:13:53So, the Russian army gets bigger, the Ukrainian army gets smaller, the Ukrainian army struggles to replace losses,
00:14:02the Russian army has no difficulty replacing losses.
00:14:08Pusirsky also provided some absolutely astonishing information about Russian artillery usage.
00:14:17He said that at the height of Russia's offensive last year, Russia was firing 40,000 rounds of shells every day.
00:14:33He then said that in recent weeks, that figure had fallen to 23,000 a day,
00:14:39and he attributed that to Ukraine's successful destruction of certain large depots, ammunition depots, deep inside Russia,
00:14:54specifically, and most specifically, the Toropez depot, which the Ukrainians attacked in September 2024.
00:15:04He didn't actually name this depot, but it was clear that that was what he meant.
00:15:10And the total numbers of rounds fired by the Russians fell to 23,000.
00:15:17But he admits that recently, the number of rounds has crept up, has increased to 27,000 to 28,000.
00:15:29Now, these are astonishing numbers.
00:15:35If the Russians were firing ammunition, artillery ammunition, at the rate of 40,000 a day,
00:15:42then that must mean that they are producing shells at the rate of roughly 14 million a year.
00:15:51Far above any estimates that I have seen.
00:15:56Maybe, as Sirsky said, this is not all Russian production.
00:16:03Maybe the North Koreans are supplying shells or producing the shells,
00:16:08and it is this which has enabled the Russians to increase production rates to these extraordinary levels.
00:16:17I'm not able to judge this or guess this myself.
00:16:22I suspect that Russia has been importing shells from North Korea,
00:16:27and I'm going to make a guess that this is mostly now new production churned out by North Korea's arms factories.
00:16:37But I don't know, and it's likely also the production of shells in Russia itself has also grown.
00:16:45Now, the Soviet Union, during the Second World War, was able to produce 100 million shells a year,
00:16:55that on a much smaller and far less sophisticated industrial base than the one Russia has today.
00:17:03But, of course, that was done in conditions of total war.
00:17:07Russia is not in conditions of total war.
00:17:13Most of the civilian economy continues to function in its normal way.
00:17:19But I suspect that Russia does have scope, or did have scope, to increase shell production
00:17:26well above the 3 to 4 million a year that people were talking about at the start of last year.
00:17:34But 14 million a year, that does seem incredible, and it is amazing, it is astonishing that people do not talk about it.
00:17:46Now, let me just add a few further things.
00:17:50Sirsky says that over the last couple of weeks, the firing rate of shells declined to 23,000 a day.
00:18:00He attributes this, as I said, to the destruction of the Russian ammunition depots, which were hit by Ukrainian drones.
00:18:09I'm going to suggest that there is a completely different explanation,
00:18:13and that is that the tempo of military operations slowed in February and March,
00:18:22and was no longer at that very, very high rate that it had been in the period from May to the end of November.
00:18:32Because of the slowdown in military operations caused by, no doubt, a multiplicity of factors,
00:18:42the Russian army no longer needed to fire as many shells as it previously did.
00:18:50Also, if the Russians are preparing for a further offensive this year,
00:18:58were preparing for a further offensive this year,
00:19:01as they almost certainly are,
00:19:06then it is likely that they would have wanted to stockpile shells
00:19:11to prepare for that offensive.
00:19:14So, that could mean that at some point in the next few weeks and months,
00:19:23as the Russian offensive gets back under speed,
00:19:29we will start to see shell use by the Russians increase again to 40,000 a day.
00:19:41Well, at any rate, that is Sirsky's figure.
00:19:46Now, Simplicius the thinker says that Sirsky had said during the interview
00:19:57that Ukraine is now firing half the number of shells that Russia is firing
00:20:08by comparison with the number of shells that it had been firing earlier in 2024,
00:20:19when the rate of difference was basically 10 to 1.
00:20:23Now, that would mean, now that is not actually what Sirsky himself said.
00:20:29It was an interview, it was this interviewer who gave those ratios,
00:20:3510 to 1 last year, 2 to 1 now.
00:20:39Now, 10 to 1 last year would imply that throughout last year,
00:20:46Ukraine was down to firing around 4,000 shells.
00:20:51So, the Russians were firing 40,000 shells,
00:20:55the Ukrainians were firing 4,000 shells.
00:20:59Now, if the number of shells the Ukrainians are now firing
00:21:06is half the number that the Russians are firing,
00:21:12or were firing, which was 23,000,
00:21:14then that would suggest that Ukraine's own rate of use of shells
00:21:21increased or has increased to around 10,000 a day.
00:21:26Now, that is not impossible,
00:21:28and it would be consistent with this rush of supplies to Ukraine,
00:21:33which was made by the Biden administration
00:21:35in the autumn of 2024,
00:21:39and also the delivery of large quantities of shells
00:21:45from former Syrian army stockpiles
00:21:49sent to Ukraine via Turkey.
00:21:54So, nonetheless, and in spite of all of that,
00:21:59the Russians, according to Sirsky's claims,
00:22:02still managed to maintain a large superiority
00:22:09over Ukraine in shell use.
00:22:12It was perhaps 2 to 1 in February-March.
00:22:18It's now increased again to 3 to 1.
00:22:22If shell use increases to 4 to 1,
00:22:27to 40,000 again on the part of the Russians in the summer,
00:22:33then it'll be 4 to 1,
00:22:34always assuming that the Ukrainians are able to maintain
00:22:39the firing rate at the same level of 10,000 a day.
00:22:46I am going to suggest that that is extremely unlikely.
00:22:51Unless the United States sends Ukraine more shells,
00:22:56probably the stockpile of shells supplied by the United States
00:23:00in the autumn will start to run down in the summer.
00:23:04And I have obviously no idea
00:23:07what the quantity of shells supplied from Syrian army stocks was,
00:23:12but I'm going to guess that that will probably,
00:23:15at this rate of use,
00:23:17also probably decline, start to decline,
00:23:20at some point over the next few months.
00:23:25In which case, we could again start to see
00:23:29a very lopsided picture in terms of artillery and shell use in this war.
00:23:37Now, I say all of this because I'm going to suggest
00:23:40that one of the reasons for all those big Russian breakthroughs last summer
00:23:45was precisely because the Russians were able to put down
00:23:49so much more artillery on Ukrainian positions,
00:23:53so much more artillery on Ukrainian positions
00:23:56that the Ukrainians were able to do on Russian positions.
00:24:00The Russians were able to bring down shells
00:24:04in vast numbers on the Ukrainians,
00:24:07and they were able to supplement them with drones,
00:24:10and with fab bombs, and all of those things.
00:24:13The level of firepower available to the Russians last year
00:24:19obviously was lopsidedly and massively in their favour.
00:24:27Just saying.
00:24:29Now, Sirsky also has a number of other very interesting points to make.
00:24:33Firstly, he is very angry with the article in the New York Times
00:24:38describing the strong relationship,
00:24:42the level of the relationship between the United States and Ukraine,
00:24:46and setting up in such detail the way in which
00:24:50it was the United States essentially that ran and operated the war.
00:24:55Now, he is angry not because he denies the quality
00:25:05or the level of that partnership described in the New York Times article.
00:25:14On the contrary, he appears to confirm it.
00:25:18What makes him angry are the personal criticisms of him
00:25:23made in that New York Times article.
00:25:26He denies, for example, that he had as many troops
00:25:30fighting in Bakhmut, as the New York Times claims.
00:25:36He says that he read comments in the New York Times article
00:25:40attributed to him, which he never made,
00:25:44and he's clearly furious about it.
00:25:46But anyway, overall, he nonetheless acknowledges,
00:25:50appears to acknowledge the underlying truth of that article,
00:25:55which is that up to the time of the end of the Biden administration,
00:26:02it was the United States that was basically running the war.
00:26:07He also acknowledges that Russia has enormous untapped mobilization reserves.
00:26:15He says that the number of people, men, that Russia could in theory call up
00:26:21who have actual military training and who could be committed to the conflict
00:26:28numbers five million.
00:26:31I don't for one moment believe that anybody in Russia has plans
00:26:36to enlist that number of men and to bring them into the war.
00:26:41But he contrasts that enormous mobilization reserve
00:26:47with the very inadequate one that Ukraine has,
00:26:53which my sense is, from reading his article,
00:26:57he knows is basically exhausted.
00:27:00So, given that this is an attrition war,
00:27:04I would have thought that the time has come to acknowledge
00:27:06that attrition is now running its course
00:27:10and that Ukraine is effectively, in effect,
00:27:14on the brink of losing that attrition.
00:27:17But, of course, he doesn't say that,
00:27:21and that nowhere appears in the article.
00:27:24He also makes an interesting admission about drones.
00:27:30He says that Ukrainian technology is far superior to Russian technology,
00:27:35though he provides no examples of this.
00:27:39He then admits that it's only in the next couple of weeks
00:27:45that the Ukrainians will finally achieve parity with the Russians
00:27:50in terms of fibre-optic guided drones.
00:27:54The Russians started to use fibre-optic drones on a large scale.
00:28:00I think it was about six months ago,
00:28:01and it has taken the Ukrainians a long time,
00:28:05finally, to get on top of this technology.
00:28:08And there was an article in the Financial Times,
00:28:10which I think shows why.
00:28:13Russian drone production is industrial.
00:28:16It takes place in big factories.
00:28:19It uses skilled workers.
00:28:21It is organised in an industrial manner,
00:28:26whereas Ukrainian drone production is fragmented.
00:28:32It is carried out, according to the Financial Times,
00:28:36in around 500 different workshops scattered across Ukraine,
00:28:41which suggests an essentially artisanal approach to production.
00:28:48Now, that, by definition, limits capacity.
00:28:53It means that, in the end, Ukraine will not be able to keep up
00:28:57with the Russians, who are producing drones on an industrial basis.
00:29:03And, in fact, the word I have heard
00:29:05is that we've already long passed the point
00:29:09when the Russians overtook the Ukrainians in drone production,
00:29:15and that they currently outproduce the Ukrainians in drones
00:29:19by a factor of 5 to 1, 5 million to 1 million.
00:29:24But the reality also is that if you have a fragmented industry,
00:29:35it is much, much more difficult
00:29:38to introduce industrial and technological innovations
00:29:44than it is if you're conducting production on an industrial scale.
00:29:52Again, this is an area where I have experience.
00:29:55But a small workshop may struggle to get on top
00:30:00of a sophisticated technology like fibre optic drones,
00:30:05whereas a large factory, provided it has reliable supplies,
00:30:10can develop the mechanisms to do that
00:30:15on a very rapid and continuous basis.
00:30:19And, contrary to what Siski says,
00:30:23I'm going to suggest that Russian drone technology
00:30:27will steadily surpass Ukrainian
00:30:30over the course of the year,
00:30:33of the coming year.
00:30:35And I'm also going to suggest
00:30:37that it is precisely this very fragmented quality
00:30:41of Ukrainian drone production,
00:30:44which explains why they fell so far behind the Russians
00:30:47in utilising and producing fibre optic drones.
00:30:52So that's another thing I wanted to say.
00:30:55Lastly, on...
00:30:57Well, not lastly.
00:30:58Sirsky also gave some interesting pieces of history.
00:31:09He claimed, he gave an entirely new justification
00:31:14of the Kursk operation of August 2024,
00:31:20the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk region.
00:31:23He said that the situation
00:31:25on the northern front lines was critical,
00:31:27that the Russians had advanced into Kharkov,
00:31:33that they were in the process of
00:31:36preparing a huge offensive in the north,
00:31:42in Shasov-Yar, in Toretsk,
00:31:45in Kupinsk, in all of these places,
00:31:51and that the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk region
00:31:55was intended to pre-empt it
00:31:58and that it did indeed successfully disrupt
00:32:02the Russian plans
00:32:03for this great northern offensive
00:32:06that the Russians had been planning to launch.
00:32:11Now,
00:32:13Zelensky has given many explanations
00:32:15for the Kursk offensive of August 2024,
00:32:19but I don't recall this one
00:32:22as being one of those explanations.
00:32:25This is a new explanation
00:32:26that Sirsky has given
00:32:29and I have to say
00:32:31that I don't place any weight on it whatsoever.
00:32:36I recall the events of 2024 very well.
00:32:42The major thrust of the Russians
00:32:46was towards the Dnieper westwards
00:32:49from Avdeivka.
00:32:51That went entirely unimpeded
00:32:54by the operation in Kursk region
00:32:56and the idea,
00:32:59the whole idea
00:33:00that the Russians were in the process
00:33:03of preparing this vast,
00:33:05enormous general offensive
00:33:07in the north of Ukraine
00:33:08in the spring and early summer of 2024,
00:33:12as far as I'm concerned,
00:33:14has no evidential foundation behind it.
00:33:20So,
00:33:21I don't take this particular claim seriously.
00:33:24The Ukrainians have never settled
00:33:26on a single cogent explanation
00:33:29why the Kursk operation took place.
00:33:32The reason is
00:33:33that they are unable
00:33:34to straightforwardly say
00:33:36what the actual reason
00:33:38for the Kursk offensive was,
00:33:40which was to seize
00:33:41the Kursk nuclear power plant.
00:33:43I've said this many times.
00:33:45I'm not going to repeat myself here
00:33:47endlessly,
00:33:50but because they can't admit
00:33:53to the true reason,
00:33:55the true purpose
00:33:56of that operation,
00:33:58they have to come up
00:33:59with different explanations
00:34:00all the time,
00:34:02none of which,
00:34:04in and of itself,
00:34:05makes any sense.
00:34:07Now,
00:34:07the last thing,
00:34:08the last thing that Siersky said,
00:34:10which I did find interesting,
00:34:11and this is from a historical point of view,
00:34:14which was that
00:34:14the first assaults
00:34:16that the Russians made
00:34:17around Kiev
00:34:18in February 2022,
00:34:21the very first days
00:34:23of the special military operation,
00:34:25involved a force
00:34:27of just nine battalions.
00:34:31that would be
00:34:32between,
00:34:34well,
00:34:35maybe
00:34:35five
00:34:36to ten thousand
00:34:38men
00:34:39in total,
00:34:40probably
00:34:40closer to five thousand
00:34:42men
00:34:43than ten thousand
00:34:44men.
00:34:45And,
00:34:46as Siersky
00:34:46correctly points out,
00:34:48it's impossible
00:34:50to encircle
00:34:52or capture
00:34:53a huge city
00:34:54like Kiev
00:34:55with just five
00:34:57to ten thousand
00:34:57men.
00:34:58I mean,
00:34:59it just
00:34:59made no sense.
00:35:02And,
00:35:02he suggests
00:35:03that the real plan
00:35:04that the Russians
00:35:05had at that time
00:35:06was not
00:35:08to try to
00:35:09capture Kiev,
00:35:10not to conduct
00:35:10a military operation
00:35:11at all,
00:35:12but to
00:35:13send a force
00:35:15quickly
00:35:15into Kiev,
00:35:17seize
00:35:17the central
00:35:18area,
00:35:19the government
00:35:19area of the city
00:35:20before
00:35:21a defence
00:35:22had been
00:35:22properly organised,
00:35:24capture the political
00:35:25and military leadership
00:35:26of the country,
00:35:27and,
00:35:29basically,
00:35:31as a result
00:35:31of that,
00:35:33that kind of coup de main
00:35:34end the war
00:35:35immediately
00:35:37and on that
00:35:38basis.
00:35:40Now,
00:35:41on that,
00:35:42actually,
00:35:43he may be right.
00:35:45What he is
00:35:47describing
00:35:47is
00:35:48an operation
00:35:50very similar
00:35:52to the one
00:35:53that the Soviets
00:35:54conducted in Prague
00:35:55in 1968.
00:35:56When they did
00:35:57exactly that,
00:35:59they seized
00:36:00a local airport
00:36:01near Prague,
00:36:03in fact,
00:36:03Prague Airport,
00:36:05and they,
00:36:06with a special
00:36:07forces unit,
00:36:08they then
00:36:09advanced deep
00:36:10into Prague
00:36:11during the night
00:36:12against
00:36:14confused
00:36:15and scattered
00:36:16resistance,
00:36:17hardly any resistance,
00:36:18in fact.
00:36:19They were able
00:36:20to arrest
00:36:20all of the leading
00:36:21figures of the
00:36:22Czech government.
00:36:23they brought
00:36:24them to Moscow.
00:36:25There was a
00:36:25negotiation in
00:36:26Moscow,
00:36:27as a result
00:36:28of which
00:36:28Czechoslovakia
00:36:29had to agree
00:36:31to the Soviet
00:36:32terms,
00:36:33which were
00:36:33basically dictated
00:36:35to them
00:36:35by the Soviet
00:36:36leadership.
00:36:38It's an
00:36:38extraordinary
00:36:38operation.
00:36:39It was an
00:36:40extraordinary
00:36:40operation,
00:36:41one which,
00:36:43as a military
00:36:44operation,
00:36:45was actually
00:36:46quite spectacular,
00:36:48and the
00:36:49Russians,
00:36:50the Soviets,
00:36:51repeated it
00:36:52again with
00:36:53a high
00:36:54measure of
00:36:55success
00:36:55about a
00:36:57decade later,
00:36:59when they
00:36:59did essentially
00:37:00the same
00:37:01thing in
00:37:01Kabul in
00:37:021979,
00:37:04when,
00:37:05again,
00:37:06a special
00:37:07forces unit
00:37:08captured
00:37:09Kabul airport
00:37:11in Afghanistan
00:37:12and rushed
00:37:14to the
00:37:15presidential
00:37:15palace,
00:37:17with orders
00:37:18to execute
00:37:20the Afghan
00:37:21president,
00:37:22Hafizullah
00:37:22Amin,
00:37:24which orders
00:37:25were successfully
00:37:26carried out.
00:37:27So,
00:37:28it's not
00:37:28impossible
00:37:29that some
00:37:30person in
00:37:32the Russian
00:37:33military,
00:37:34some Russian
00:37:35official,
00:37:36maybe Putin
00:37:37himself,
00:37:38thought that
00:37:39they could
00:37:40try to do
00:37:40the same
00:37:41thing in
00:37:42Kiev in
00:37:452022.
00:37:47And one
00:37:47could see
00:37:47the attraction.
00:37:49If Zelensky
00:37:50and the other
00:37:50political leaders
00:37:51had all been
00:37:52arrested and
00:37:53brought to
00:37:53Moscow,
00:37:54then it
00:37:54might indeed
00:37:55have been
00:37:55possible to
00:37:57basically coerce
00:37:58these people
00:37:59into agreeing
00:38:01to a peace
00:38:02very much on
00:38:03Russian terms.
00:38:05However,
00:38:06the operation
00:38:09obviously failed.
00:38:11and by the
00:38:13way,
00:38:13I should say
00:38:13I remember
00:38:14that in
00:38:142022,
00:38:15in February
00:38:162022,
00:38:17a Russian
00:38:18motorized
00:38:19column did
00:38:19actually
00:38:20penetrate
00:38:21quite deeply
00:38:23into Kiev
00:38:24and it might
00:38:24have been
00:38:25tasked with
00:38:26carrying out
00:38:26an operation
00:38:27like that,
00:38:28though it was
00:38:28quickly withdrawn.
00:38:29Anyway,
00:38:30if that was
00:38:32the plan,
00:38:33it basically
00:38:34went wrong
00:38:35almost immediately
00:38:36and it's not
00:38:36difficult to
00:38:37see why.
00:38:38Firstly,
00:38:39Kiev,
00:38:39in terms of
00:38:40its area,
00:38:41is a far
00:38:42bigger place
00:38:43than Prague,
00:38:45which I know
00:38:45quite well,
00:38:46by the way,
00:38:47and Kabul,
00:38:48which I've
00:38:48never visited,
00:38:49but which I
00:38:50know a little
00:38:51bit about
00:38:51its geography.
00:38:54Also,
00:38:56the Ukrainian
00:38:58leadership at
00:38:59that time
00:39:00was far
00:39:01better informed
00:39:02about what
00:39:03the Russians
00:39:04were preparing
00:39:05and might be
00:39:06intending to
00:39:08do than
00:39:10the governments
00:39:10of Czechoslovakia
00:39:12in 1968
00:39:13and Afghanistan
00:39:15in 1979
00:39:17were.
00:39:18They were
00:39:19getting a stream
00:39:20of intelligence
00:39:22from the
00:39:23United States
00:39:24and the
00:39:25element of
00:39:26surprise,
00:39:28which would
00:39:28have been
00:39:28crucial to
00:39:29an operation
00:39:30of this kind,
00:39:31simply wasn't
00:39:32there.
00:39:33So,
00:39:34it's unsurprising
00:39:35that this
00:39:35operation
00:39:36failed,
00:39:37though maybe
00:39:38it was
00:39:40worth a try
00:39:41and that
00:39:42might have
00:39:42been the
00:39:43calculation
00:39:44in Moscow.
00:39:45Anyway,
00:39:46put that
00:39:47aside,
00:39:48Sirsky says
00:39:49that the
00:39:50current Russian
00:39:51military,
00:39:52which he
00:39:52puts at
00:39:53624,000
00:39:55in Ukraine
00:39:56now,
00:39:57is five
00:39:58times bigger
00:39:59than the
00:40:00force that
00:40:01Russia sent
00:40:02into Ukraine
00:40:03in February
00:40:042022.
00:40:06And that
00:40:07gives us,
00:40:07again,
00:40:08a number
00:40:09of around
00:40:09150,000
00:40:11for the
00:40:12size of
00:40:12the Russian
00:40:13force that
00:40:13entered Ukraine
00:40:14in February
00:40:162022.
00:40:18And to
00:40:18say simply,
00:40:20that force
00:40:20is nowhere
00:40:21near,
00:40:22would have
00:40:22been nowhere
00:40:23near big
00:40:23enough to
00:40:25occupy the
00:40:26whole of
00:40:27Ukraine
00:40:27against
00:40:28resistance.
00:40:29Anyway,
00:40:30that was
00:40:30what,
00:40:31this is an
00:40:31interesting
00:40:32interview
00:40:32from Sirsky.
00:40:35Clearly,
00:40:36he's looking
00:40:37into the
00:40:38future,
00:40:39and the
00:40:40future is
00:40:41not right.
00:40:43He clearly,
00:40:44he admits
00:40:45that American
00:40:47military
00:40:48supplies are
00:40:50winding down.
00:40:52He continues
00:40:52to hope
00:40:53that he
00:40:53will get
00:40:54more
00:40:54from the
00:40:55Europeans,
00:40:56but he
00:40:56can't
00:40:57really
00:40:58have many
00:40:59expectations
00:41:00of that.
00:41:01He's
00:41:01relying,
00:41:03as the
00:41:03Ukrainians
00:41:04tend to
00:41:04do at
00:41:05the moment,
00:41:06overmuch
00:41:07on drones.
00:41:08He is
00:41:09discounting
00:41:10the effect
00:41:10of artillery,
00:41:11though I
00:41:12have no
00:41:12doubt that
00:41:13Russian
00:41:14superiority
00:41:14in artillery
00:41:16was critical
00:41:17to the
00:41:18success of
00:41:20Russia's
00:41:20offensives
00:41:21last year.
00:41:22and he
00:41:24also
00:41:25acknowledges
00:41:26a manpower
00:41:28crisis,
00:41:29even at
00:41:31the same
00:41:31time as
00:41:32he knows
00:41:34that the
00:41:35Russians have
00:41:36no problems
00:41:37in manpower,
00:41:39not
00:41:39whatsoever.
00:41:41He also
00:41:42clearly has
00:41:44no expectation
00:41:46that the
00:41:47Russians are
00:41:48anywhere close
00:41:49to running
00:41:50out of
00:41:51steam.
00:41:51To repeat
00:41:52again,
00:41:53when he
00:41:53was last
00:41:54directly,
00:41:55how long
00:41:56he thought
00:41:56the Russians
00:41:57would be
00:41:58able to
00:41:58sustain an
00:41:59offensive,
00:42:03he avoided
00:42:03giving an
00:42:04answer.
00:42:05So,
00:42:06that's
00:42:07Sirsky.
00:42:08Now,
00:42:09let's
00:42:09go to
00:42:10the
00:42:11military
00:42:11situation.
00:42:12As I said,
00:42:12I'm going
00:42:12to discuss
00:42:13it fairly
00:42:13briefly,
00:42:14but we'll
00:42:14talk about
00:42:15it quickly
00:42:16on the
00:42:17basis of
00:42:17what we
00:42:19learn from,
00:42:21we've
00:42:23learned from
00:42:23Sirsky.
00:42:24It's
00:42:25absolutely
00:42:25clear to
00:42:26me that
00:42:26we are
00:42:27indeed at
00:42:28the early
00:42:28stages of
00:42:30a Russian
00:42:30offensive in
00:42:31Ukraine.
00:42:32this is
00:42:32now
00:42:32becoming
00:42:33the
00:42:35mainstream
00:42:35view,
00:42:36and I've
00:42:37no doubt
00:42:37it is
00:42:38true.
00:42:39I think
00:42:39I'm right
00:42:39in saying
00:42:40that I was
00:42:41the first
00:42:41person to
00:42:41suggest it.
00:42:44The
00:42:44Russians
00:42:44are clearly
00:42:46focused,
00:42:48however,
00:42:49on multiple
00:42:50areas at
00:42:52the same
00:42:53time,
00:42:54and this
00:42:54makes it
00:42:55very difficult
00:42:55to give a
00:42:57single
00:42:57overview of
00:42:59where
00:43:00events are
00:43:01moving.
00:43:03This is a
00:43:03great
00:43:04difference from
00:43:05the situation
00:43:06earlier in
00:43:07the war.
00:43:08The
00:43:08contact line
00:43:10is enormously
00:43:11long,
00:43:131,000 plus
00:43:14kilometers long.
00:43:17Previously,
00:43:18at earlier
00:43:18stages in
00:43:19the war,
00:43:20I remember
00:43:21that battles
00:43:22used to
00:43:22happen in
00:43:22one place,
00:43:24and we
00:43:24used to
00:43:25talk about
00:43:25them,
00:43:26and everywhere
00:43:26else things
00:43:27would be
00:43:28quiet.
00:43:29So, for
00:43:30example, in
00:43:31the summer
00:43:31of 2022,
00:43:33the Russians
00:43:33first captured
00:43:34Mariupol,
00:43:35then they
00:43:36switched focus
00:43:37to Severodonets,
00:43:38Lysychansk,
00:43:39then the
00:43:40Ukrainians
00:43:40are struck
00:43:41in Kharkov,
00:43:43and then
00:43:43they struck,
00:43:44or at least
00:43:45then they
00:43:45pressed their
00:43:47offensive in
00:43:48Kherson region.
00:43:49Then, over
00:43:51the course of
00:43:512023, we
00:43:53had first
00:43:54the fighting
00:43:55in Bakhmut,
00:43:56which basically
00:43:57was the
00:43:58only area
00:43:59where
00:43:59large-scale
00:44:01fighting was
00:44:02taking place
00:44:02in the
00:44:03first half
00:44:04of 2023,
00:44:06and then
00:44:07the second
00:44:08part of
00:44:092023 was
00:44:10taken up
00:44:10by the
00:44:11Ukrainian
00:44:12offensive,
00:44:13which was
00:44:13basically focused
00:44:14on two
00:44:15areas.
00:44:15One,
00:44:16Zaporozhia
00:44:17region,
00:44:18the attempt
00:44:18to try to
00:44:19break through
00:44:19to the
00:44:20Black Sea,
00:44:20and the
00:44:21other
00:44:22General
00:44:23Silsky's
00:44:23offensive
00:44:24to try to
00:44:25recapture
00:44:26Bakhmut.
00:44:27So that
00:44:27was 2023.
00:44:30Then the
00:44:31Russian
00:44:31offensive
00:44:32that followed
00:44:33that offensive
00:44:34focused on
00:44:35Avdevka,
00:44:36then Avdevka
00:44:37was captured,
00:44:39and then,
00:44:40as I said
00:44:41a moment
00:44:44ago,
00:44:44the main
00:44:45focus
00:44:46of the
00:44:47Russian
00:44:47advance
00:44:48in
00:44:49the
00:44:51spring,
00:44:52summer,
00:44:52autumn
00:44:53of 2024,
00:44:54was
00:44:55west
00:44:58of
00:44:58Avdevka,
00:45:00towards
00:45:00Pakrovsk,
00:45:01and towards
00:45:02the Dnieper,
00:45:03and ultimately
00:45:04towards
00:45:05Zaporozhia as
00:45:06well.
00:45:06The Russians
00:45:07did launch
00:45:08two secondary
00:45:10offensives,
00:45:11one in
00:45:11Kharkov,
00:45:13but
00:45:13with a
00:45:15relatively
00:45:15small force
00:45:16of about
00:45:1750,000
00:45:17men,
00:45:18and the
00:45:19other in
00:45:20Toretsk,
00:45:22where the
00:45:24fighting was
00:45:26clearly given
00:45:26less energy
00:45:27than in the
00:45:29other two
00:45:29places,
00:45:31Toretsk and
00:45:32Chosefya.
00:45:33The main
00:45:33focus of the
00:45:34Russians,
00:45:35as I said,
00:45:35was in the
00:45:36south,
00:45:37towards the
00:45:38Dnieper,
00:45:39advancing west
00:45:41from
00:45:42Avdevka.
00:45:43That is not
00:45:44the case
00:45:45with the
00:45:46offensive that
00:45:47we are
00:45:47looking at
00:45:48now,
00:45:48and it's
00:45:48very difficult
00:45:49at the
00:45:50moment to
00:45:51get an
00:45:52accurate sense
00:45:53of where the
00:45:54heaviest punch
00:45:55from the
00:45:56Russians is
00:45:57going to
00:45:57come.
00:45:58So,
00:45:59firstly,
00:45:59in Sumi
00:46:00region,
00:46:01which borders
00:46:02Kursk,
00:46:03the Russians
00:46:04have been
00:46:05busy capturing
00:46:06more and
00:46:06more territory,
00:46:08lots of
00:46:09villages.
00:46:10They've also
00:46:11pushed,
00:46:12or appear to
00:46:13have pushed,
00:46:14the Ukrainians
00:46:14out of
00:46:15Belgorod
00:46:16region.
00:46:17Even the
00:46:18Ukrainians now
00:46:19acknowledge that
00:46:20the Russians are
00:46:21in full control
00:46:22of the two
00:46:23border villages,
00:46:23of Popovka
00:46:25and Dimidovka.
00:46:27And,
00:46:27well,
00:46:28there are
00:46:29suggestions
00:46:30that the
00:46:32Russians are
00:46:33trying to
00:46:34conduct some
00:46:35kind of
00:46:35encirclement
00:46:36operations of
00:46:38the Ukrainian
00:46:39forces that
00:46:40remain in
00:46:41northern Sumi
00:46:42region,
00:46:43close to the
00:46:44Russian border,
00:46:45fighting for
00:46:46the villages
00:46:47of Oletchia
00:46:48and Gorniak,
00:46:51and that the
00:46:52fighting
00:46:52but also
00:46:54in northern
00:46:55Sumi region
00:46:56as well,
00:46:58with the
00:46:59Russians perhaps
00:47:00having some
00:47:01kind of plan
00:47:02once they've
00:47:04captured all
00:47:06of these
00:47:06positions,
00:47:07to move
00:47:09further
00:47:10towards the
00:47:12city of
00:47:13Sumi
00:47:13itself.
00:47:14It's possible.
00:47:16Then,
00:47:18we have this
00:47:18incredibly
00:47:19complicated war
00:47:20that's been
00:47:21fought for
00:47:22for a long
00:47:23time now
00:47:23on the
00:47:24Oskol and
00:47:25Jerebets
00:47:25rivers.
00:47:26And here,
00:47:28we have a
00:47:29very, very
00:47:30large Russian
00:47:31bridgehead,
00:47:32now established
00:47:33north of
00:47:34Kupinsk
00:47:35and west
00:47:36of the
00:47:36Oskol
00:47:37river,
00:47:38on the
00:47:38Ukrainian
00:47:39side of
00:47:40the Oskol
00:47:40river.
00:47:41Now,
00:47:41there have been
00:47:42more reports
00:47:42over the last
00:47:43couple of
00:47:44hours of the
00:47:44Russians capturing
00:47:45significant more
00:47:46territory there,
00:47:47enlarging and
00:47:48joining up the
00:47:49various bridgeheads.
00:47:50there's been
00:47:52reports of
00:47:53villages captured,
00:47:54I'm not going to
00:47:55discuss that in
00:47:56detail,
00:47:57though the
00:47:58fighting in the
00:47:59village of
00:47:59Kaminka,
00:48:00which many see
00:48:02as the key
00:48:02here,
00:48:04continues.
00:48:06The most
00:48:07important thing
00:48:08to say about
00:48:09this particular
00:48:11area,
00:48:13the northern
00:48:14Kupinsk area,
00:48:15west of the
00:48:16Oskol river,
00:48:18is that the
00:48:18Russians are now
00:48:19deploying
00:48:20heavy armoured
00:48:21vehicles and
00:48:23artillery west
00:48:24of the Oskol
00:48:25river.
00:48:26Up to now,
00:48:29the Russian
00:48:30troops,
00:48:31who presumably
00:48:32passed across
00:48:34the Oskol
00:48:34river in
00:48:35boats or
00:48:36light pontoon
00:48:37bridges or
00:48:38perhaps in some
00:48:39places even
00:48:40waded across,
00:48:41though that might
00:48:41be difficult to
00:48:42do in the
00:48:43winter,
00:48:44the Russian
00:48:45troops west
00:48:45of the Oskol
00:48:46river,
00:48:47have been
00:48:48infantry.
00:48:49But now the
00:48:49bridgehead is
00:48:51obviously broad
00:48:52enough that
00:48:53stronger bridges
00:48:55have been
00:48:56constructed and
00:48:58also the
00:49:01bridges have
00:49:02now connected
00:49:03with Russian
00:49:04territory.
00:49:06And we are
00:49:07starting to see
00:49:08armoured vehicles
00:49:09appear,
00:49:11including
00:49:12TOS-1
00:49:13tanks,
00:49:14the ones
00:49:15that
00:49:16launch
00:49:18these
00:49:19enormously
00:49:20powerful
00:49:21thermobaric
00:49:24munitions,
00:49:25devastating
00:49:26weapon,
00:49:28and as I
00:49:29said before,
00:49:30long tanks,
00:49:31armoured
00:49:31vehicles,
00:49:33in ever
00:49:35greater number,
00:49:36all the
00:49:38forces, in
00:49:38other words,
00:49:39that you would
00:49:39need to
00:49:40conduct an
00:49:41offensive.
00:49:42So an
00:49:45important change
00:49:47is taking place
00:49:48in this area.
00:49:50Now this is of
00:49:50course in
00:49:51Kharkiv region,
00:49:52and we've had
00:49:53lots of reports
00:49:54that the Russians
00:49:56having basically
00:49:58completed the
00:50:00capture of
00:50:02Volchansk,
00:50:03north of the
00:50:04Volsha river,
00:50:05have now
00:50:06crossed the
00:50:07Volsha river,
00:50:09and are
00:50:10operating in
00:50:12significant areas
00:50:13of southern
00:50:14Volsha
00:50:14and look to
00:50:16be very close
00:50:18to capturing
00:50:19the whole of
00:50:20Volsha
00:50:20not just the
00:50:21north of
00:50:22Volsha
00:50:22which is the
00:50:23main area
00:50:24of Volsha
00:50:25but all of
00:50:26the area
00:50:27of Volsha
00:50:28the remaining
00:50:29suburbs of
00:50:29Volsha
00:50:30south of the
00:50:31Volsha river.
00:50:32It's been
00:50:33suggested that
00:50:35despite the
00:50:35fact that the
00:50:36distance between
00:50:37the bridge
00:50:38heads, the
00:50:39Russian bridge
00:50:40head west
00:50:42of the
00:50:42Oskol river
00:50:43and Volsha
00:50:45itself is
00:50:46quite extensive
00:50:47that the
00:50:48Russians
00:50:49ultimately intend
00:50:50to link up
00:50:51their forces,
00:50:52their forces in
00:50:53Volsha
00:50:54with their
00:50:55forces west
00:50:56of the
00:50:56Oskol river.
00:50:57Complicated
00:50:58operation and
00:50:59I'm not sure
00:51:00how it can be
00:51:01carried out
00:51:01and when it
00:51:02will be carried
00:51:03out but then
00:51:03who knows
00:51:04maybe it
00:51:05can be
00:51:05and I
00:51:06don't know
00:51:06how strong
00:51:07the Ukrainian
00:51:08troops are
00:51:09in this
00:51:09area.
00:51:11Anyway,
00:51:11that's one
00:51:13area where
00:51:14the Russians
00:51:14are heavily
00:51:15focused.
00:51:16Then there's
00:51:18the other
00:51:19southern end
00:51:21of the
00:51:22Oskol and
00:51:23Zheribets
00:51:24rivers.
00:51:25Now the
00:51:25Russians have
00:51:27basically
00:51:28encircled
00:51:29the Ukrainian
00:51:31troops or
00:51:32at least
00:51:32taken the
00:51:33Ukrainian
00:51:33troops,
00:51:34the remaining
00:51:34Ukrainian
00:51:35troops who
00:51:36are located
00:51:37on the
00:51:37east bank
00:51:38of the
00:51:38Zheribets
00:51:39river into
00:51:40some kind
00:51:41of a
00:51:41semicircle.
00:51:42But they've
00:51:43also established
00:51:44a sizable
00:51:45bridgehead west
00:51:46of the
00:51:47Zheribets
00:51:47river as
00:51:48well.
00:51:49And the
00:51:50apparent
00:51:52objectives are
00:51:54firstly to
00:51:56cut off
00:51:56supplies to
00:51:57Siversk.
00:51:59This town,
00:52:02fortified town
00:52:03in a long
00:52:04salient north
00:52:07of Bakhmut
00:52:08and Solidar,
00:52:09west of
00:52:10Severodonetsk,
00:52:11place which the
00:52:12Russians have
00:52:13tried to capture
00:52:13many times,
00:52:15but which they've
00:52:15never managed to
00:52:16capture up to
00:52:17now.
00:52:18Now, in
00:52:19order to cut
00:52:21off supplies to
00:52:22Siversk,
00:52:23they need to
00:52:24capture the
00:52:26small town of
00:52:27Torskje.
00:52:28And there are
00:52:29now photos,
00:52:30apparently,
00:52:31which show Russian
00:52:31troops,
00:52:32certainly on the
00:52:33northern outskirts
00:52:34of this place.
00:52:37Perhaps they are
00:52:38in full control
00:52:39of it.
00:52:39and the
00:52:40village of
00:52:41Jampol
00:52:41immediately to
00:52:42the south.
00:52:44But it
00:52:45could also be
00:52:46that the
00:52:47Russians are
00:52:48planning to
00:52:49capture the
00:52:50important town
00:52:51of Liman,
00:52:53which lies a
00:52:55short distance
00:52:56west of
00:52:58the
00:52:58Zheribets
00:53:01river,
00:53:02and which
00:53:03would be an
00:53:04important objective
00:53:05for the
00:53:06Russians.
00:53:07Firstly, it
00:53:08would bring
00:53:08them much
00:53:09closer to
00:53:10Slavyansk,
00:53:11and it
00:53:12would also
00:53:12further
00:53:15undermine the
00:53:17potential
00:53:17defences of
00:53:18Siversk.
00:53:19And again,
00:53:20over the
00:53:21last 24
00:53:22hours,
00:53:23there have
00:53:24been multiple
00:53:24reports of
00:53:25further
00:53:26significant
00:53:27Russian
00:53:27advances in
00:53:29this area,
00:53:30and in
00:53:31particular of
00:53:32a critical
00:53:32situation for
00:53:34the Ukrainian
00:53:34group that's
00:53:35still located on
00:53:37the east
00:53:37bank,
00:53:38which appears
00:53:40to be
00:53:40semi-surrounded
00:53:43and at
00:53:45risk of
00:53:47complete
00:53:48encirclement.
00:53:49And that
00:53:50grouping
00:53:51includes
00:53:52troops from
00:53:55the 3rd
00:53:55Azov Brigade,
00:53:57which is
00:53:57absolutely
00:53:58considered an
00:54:00elite unit.
00:54:00anyway,
00:54:02that's one
00:54:03very complicated
00:54:04operation.
00:54:05Then there's
00:54:06a third,
00:54:07there's another
00:54:08complex operation
00:54:09underway,
00:54:10which is the
00:54:11one that's
00:54:12currently underway
00:54:14in the
00:54:16Chasov-Yar-Toretsk-Konstantinovka
00:54:21area.
00:54:22Now,
00:54:23yesterday,
00:54:24I spoke about
00:54:25a daring
00:54:26raid that the
00:54:27Russians have
00:54:28made north of
00:54:29Toretsk.
00:54:29They seem to
00:54:30have sent an
00:54:31armoured column
00:54:32north.
00:54:33I thought this was
00:54:34a raid rather
00:54:35than an
00:54:36actual
00:54:37sustained attack,
00:54:39but it seems
00:54:39that the Russians
00:54:40have in fact
00:54:41managed to
00:54:42dig in
00:54:42in a village
00:54:43north of
00:54:44Toretsk,
00:54:45some distance
00:54:45north of
00:54:46Toretsk,
00:54:47called
00:54:47Filipovka.
00:54:48Now,
00:54:49this is
00:54:49unusual
00:54:50because
00:54:51Filipovka
00:54:52appears to
00:54:53be well
00:54:54in advance
00:54:56of the
00:54:57Russian
00:54:57positions,
00:54:59and the
00:55:00force that
00:55:00now operates,
00:55:02that's now
00:55:02occupying
00:55:03Filipovka,
00:55:04looks very
00:55:05much, I
00:55:06would have
00:55:06said,
00:55:06in danger
00:55:07of encirclement.
00:55:09That
00:55:09suggests
00:55:10that there
00:55:12are follow-up
00:55:13Russian troops
00:55:14intending to
00:55:15move up
00:55:15the same
00:55:16road to
00:55:16link up
00:55:17with this
00:55:17advanced
00:55:18party which
00:55:19has occupied
00:55:20Filipovka.
00:55:22There is a
00:55:23coal mine,
00:55:24we have lots
00:55:25of coal mines
00:55:25in this
00:55:26area,
00:55:27between,
00:55:29or at
00:55:29least on
00:55:31the west
00:55:31side of
00:55:32the road,
00:55:33which the
00:55:33Russians have
00:55:34been using
00:55:34to reach
00:55:35Filipovka.
00:55:37It's
00:55:38assumed
00:55:38that there
00:55:39are Ukrainian
00:55:40troops there,
00:55:41probably
00:55:42there's a
00:55:42fierce battle
00:55:43underway for
00:55:44control of
00:55:45this coal
00:55:46mine.
00:55:47If the
00:55:47Russians
00:55:48capture it,
00:55:49then they
00:55:49have
00:55:50effectively
00:55:51established,
00:55:54achieved a
00:55:55major
00:55:56breakthrough
00:55:57against
00:55:58Ukrainian
00:55:58defences.
00:56:00And there
00:56:01have been
00:56:01more reports
00:56:02that the
00:56:02Russians have
00:56:04been pushing
00:56:05forward in
00:56:07the various
00:56:07villages west
00:56:08of Toretsk.
00:56:10they seem
00:56:10to be
00:56:10clearing up
00:56:11all of
00:56:12these
00:56:12villages.
00:56:13And as I
00:56:14discussed in
00:56:14my programme
00:56:15yesterday,
00:56:16it looks as
00:56:17if they're
00:56:18preparing for
00:56:19a major
00:56:19offensive west
00:56:22from Chasov-Yar.
00:56:24There are
00:56:25still Ukrainian
00:56:25troops from
00:56:26the 24th
00:56:27Mechanised
00:56:28Brigade,
00:56:29apparently,
00:56:30defending
00:56:31themselves in
00:56:32the high-rise
00:56:33building area
00:56:34in Chasov-Yar,
00:56:36but their
00:56:38supplies are
00:56:40becoming
00:56:40increasingly
00:56:41tenuous.
00:56:42There were
00:56:42complaints from
00:56:43Ukrainian
00:56:44commentators
00:56:45that their
00:56:46position is
00:56:47becoming
00:56:47extremely
00:56:48difficult.
00:56:49So it
00:56:51looks as if
00:56:51a big
00:56:52operation is
00:56:53underway in
00:56:54this area,
00:56:55presumably to
00:56:56capture all
00:56:57the ground
00:56:58south of
00:56:59Konstantinovka.
00:57:00and to
00:57:02begin an
00:57:02offensive,
00:57:03maybe in
00:57:04mid-summer,
00:57:05to capture
00:57:06that particular
00:57:06town.
00:57:08And then
00:57:08there's
00:57:09Pokrovsk.
00:57:10The Russians
00:57:11have established
00:57:13themselves
00:57:13positions
00:57:15north of
00:57:16the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka
00:57:18highway.
00:57:20They have
00:57:20also apparently
00:57:22seen off
00:57:23the various
00:57:23Ukrainian
00:57:24counter-attacks
00:57:25close to
00:57:26Pokrovsk.
00:57:27They have
00:57:28Pokrovsk in a
00:57:29semicircle,
00:57:30and reports
00:57:33say that they
00:57:34have expanded
00:57:35their control
00:57:36in the
00:57:37area just
00:57:38southwest of
00:57:40Pokrovsk.
00:57:41It looks as
00:57:42if a blow
00:57:44against
00:57:44Pokrovsk might
00:57:45be coming as
00:57:46well.
00:57:47And lastly,
00:57:48there are the
00:57:49continued Russian
00:57:50advances in
00:57:52southwest Donbass
00:57:54and in
00:57:55Zaporozhye
00:57:56region,
00:57:58where the
00:57:58Russians seem
00:57:59to be very
00:58:00busy destroying
00:58:01Ukrainian vehicles
00:58:02and
00:58:03things,
00:58:05supplies,
00:58:06and interrupting
00:58:07supplies,
00:58:07and using their
00:58:08drones in
00:58:09doing so.
00:58:10So you can see
00:58:11that in every
00:58:12part of the
00:58:13front lines,
00:58:14the Russians
00:58:14are advancing.
00:58:15There is no
00:58:16area which is
00:58:18quiet,
00:58:18and that
00:58:19must be
00:58:21putting the
00:58:21Ukrainians under
00:58:22incredible stress.
00:58:23their forces
00:58:25are having to
00:58:26defend everywhere
00:58:28at once,
00:58:29and that must
00:58:30be exhausting
00:58:31their reserves.
00:58:32It is not
00:58:33surprising that
00:58:35General Sirsky
00:58:36is complaining
00:58:37about the fact
00:58:38that he doesn't
00:58:39have enough
00:58:40men being
00:58:40mobilized.
00:58:42He's coming up
00:58:42with proposals
00:58:44for the total
00:58:45digitalization of
00:58:47the Ukrainian
00:58:48population in
00:58:49order to make
00:58:50mobilization more
00:58:52effective,
00:58:53and why he
00:58:54complains that
00:58:55the Russian army
00:58:56is getting bigger
00:58:57and bigger and
00:58:58bigger all the
00:58:59time.
00:58:59He worries that
00:59:01by the end of
00:59:01the year,
00:59:02the Russian army
00:59:03will have
00:59:04increased by
00:59:05another 120,000
00:59:07men.
00:59:08Just saying.
00:59:09And of course,
00:59:10it is not just
00:59:11the situation
00:59:12on the ground,
00:59:14but the situation
00:59:15in the skies
00:59:16that must be
00:59:17worrying General
00:59:17Sirsky,
00:59:18because with
00:59:19every single
00:59:19day,
00:59:20in fact,
00:59:20there were more
00:59:21cases of this
00:59:22last night,
00:59:23there are Russian
00:59:24drone attacks
00:59:25on Ukrainian
00:59:26cities,
00:59:26Russian missile
00:59:27attacks on
00:59:28Ukrainian cities,
00:59:30there was an
00:59:31attack with
00:59:31apparently
00:59:32Iskander-M
00:59:33missiles on
00:59:35Dnieper,
00:59:36the city of
00:59:36Dnieper,
00:59:38which I've
00:59:39seen pictures
00:59:40of an enormous
00:59:41cloud,
00:59:43explosive cloud
00:59:45from one
00:59:46particular facility
00:59:48that was hit
00:59:50by this missile,
00:59:52and of course,
00:59:52that goes on
00:59:53every day,
00:59:54all the time,
00:59:55and last but
00:59:57not least,
00:59:58this perhaps
00:59:59isn't something
01:00:00that General
01:00:01Sirsky himself
01:00:02is thinking
01:00:03much about,
01:00:04but financial
01:00:06aid from the
01:00:08West is
01:00:09shrinking,
01:00:09the United
01:00:10States is no
01:00:11longer providing
01:00:12funding at
01:00:13the level
01:00:13that it
01:00:14previously did,
01:00:15there was a
01:00:16lot of talk
01:00:16a few weeks
01:00:17and months
01:00:18ago about
01:00:18Ukraine being
01:00:19provided with
01:00:20a big loan,
01:00:21the European
01:00:21Union said
01:00:22that it had
01:00:23provided extra
01:00:24money,
01:00:25but the
01:00:25Ukrainians are
01:00:26saying that
01:00:26they've not
01:00:27seen any of
01:00:28this,
01:00:28the IMF is
01:00:30talking about
01:00:31providing further
01:00:32assistance,
01:00:33funds, but
01:00:35Ukraine is
01:00:36now running
01:00:37very, very
01:00:38large budget
01:00:39deficit, which
01:00:41it previously
01:00:42covered through
01:00:43Western aid,
01:00:45that deficit
01:00:46seems is no
01:00:47longer being
01:00:48covered, the
01:00:49currency is
01:00:50apparently starting
01:00:51to weaken,
01:00:52inflation across
01:00:56Ukraine is
01:00:56rising, with the
01:00:58government no
01:00:59longer able to
01:01:00cover its own
01:01:03expenses, we
01:01:05are again
01:01:05looking at a
01:01:09potential
01:01:09hyperinflationary
01:01:11crisis by the
01:01:13end of this
01:01:13year, unless
01:01:15something is
01:01:17done quickly
01:01:18to prevent that
01:01:20happening and
01:01:20to bring this
01:01:21deteriorating
01:01:22economic situation
01:01:24under control.
01:01:26And if you
01:01:27spend time
01:01:29going through
01:01:30the telegram
01:01:32channels, if
01:01:33you read
01:01:34comments that
01:01:35Ukrainians have
01:01:36been making,
01:01:37you will find
01:01:38that these
01:01:39economic
01:01:39pressures are
01:01:41very much at
01:01:42the forefront
01:01:43of their
01:01:44concerns, and
01:01:46some officials
01:01:47within Ukraine
01:01:48seem to be
01:01:49talking in the
01:01:50same way about
01:01:52that as well.
01:01:53And, well,
01:01:54what is
01:01:55President Zelensky's
01:01:57own way to
01:01:59get out of
01:02:00these problems?
01:02:01Well, his
01:02:02officials,
01:02:04Yermak, for
01:02:04example, after
01:02:06a brief flurry
01:02:08of discussions
01:02:09that were
01:02:10taking place a
01:02:11short time ago
01:02:12about possible
01:02:14elections in
01:02:16Ukraine this
01:02:17late spring,
01:02:19summer, he's
01:02:20now said that
01:02:21that is a
01:02:21nonsense idea
01:02:22and it won't
01:02:23happen.
01:02:24So elections
01:02:24have again
01:02:26been ruled
01:02:26out.
01:02:29Zelensky has
01:02:31again said that
01:02:32Ukraine needs
01:02:33more and more
01:02:33weapons.
01:02:34He's given
01:02:34him more
01:02:34interviews to
01:02:35this effect.
01:02:36He sent his
01:02:37officials to
01:02:38another meeting
01:02:39of the EU
01:02:39in Brussels.
01:02:40There's been so
01:02:41many meetings
01:02:42by the Europeans
01:02:44about Ukraine.
01:02:45Anyway,
01:02:46Zelensky has
01:02:46sent more of
01:02:47his officials
01:02:48there.
01:02:48he says that
01:02:50the fact that
01:02:50the Russians
01:02:51are preparing
01:02:52and working
01:02:53towards launching
01:02:54this great
01:02:54offensive is a
01:02:55sign that
01:02:56they're not
01:02:56really interested
01:02:57in peace.
01:02:58There's no
01:02:58evidence that
01:02:59the Russians
01:02:59are actually
01:03:00interested in
01:03:01peace.
01:03:02What Ukraine
01:03:03must therefore
01:03:03receive is more
01:03:05weapons, more
01:03:06funding.
01:03:08Zelensky has even
01:03:09said that what
01:03:09Ukraine needs
01:03:11is predictable,
01:03:13reliable,
01:03:14unlimited funding.
01:03:16If that is
01:03:18provided, then
01:03:19all supposedly
01:03:20will be well.
01:03:21Without it,
01:03:22however, he
01:03:23doesn't actually
01:03:24say this, but
01:03:24without it,
01:03:26presumably,
01:03:27Ukraine's
01:03:28situation would
01:03:29be grave.
01:03:30As for a
01:03:31diplomatic
01:03:32initiative, as
01:03:33was Zelensky
01:03:34showing any
01:03:34willingness to
01:03:35bend on any
01:03:36of his
01:03:37positions, for
01:03:40example, showing
01:03:42some acceptance
01:03:44of the need to
01:03:45cede territory,
01:03:46to the
01:03:46Russians, I
01:03:47don't mean
01:03:47just accept
01:03:48that the
01:03:49Russians
01:03:49occupy that
01:03:50territory and
01:03:51will do so
01:03:52for a certain
01:03:53period of
01:03:54time, but an
01:03:55acceptance that
01:03:56some of this
01:03:57territory is
01:03:58irretrievably
01:03:59lost.
01:04:00As for
01:04:01Zelensky
01:04:02accepting that
01:04:03Ukraine will
01:04:04never be able
01:04:05to join NATO,
01:04:06those kind of
01:04:07things, well,
01:04:10Zelensky has
01:04:12nothing to say
01:04:13about that at
01:04:13all.
01:04:14he rejects
01:04:15these ideas
01:04:15outright, he
01:04:17continues to
01:04:17insist that
01:04:18Ukraine is
01:04:19entitled to
01:04:20join whichever
01:04:21alliance and
01:04:22economic system
01:04:23it chooses, it
01:04:25is entitled to
01:04:25have all its
01:04:26territory returned
01:04:28to it.
01:04:29He continues to
01:04:30insist on his
01:04:32objectives, his
01:04:34goals, which,
01:04:37to say it
01:04:38frankly, he's
01:04:40never wavered
01:04:41from since he
01:04:42first set them
01:04:43out in his
01:04:44so-called peace
01:04:45plan in the
01:04:46autumn of
01:04:472022.
01:04:50So there's
01:04:51no real sign
01:04:52of Ukraine,
01:04:54of the
01:04:54Ukrainian
01:04:54leadership,
01:04:56responding or
01:04:57adjusting its
01:04:58stance in
01:05:00response to
01:05:02this
01:05:03deteriorating
01:05:04situation.
01:05:05Zelensky's
01:05:07idea continues
01:05:09to be that
01:05:09Ukraine must
01:05:10be assisted
01:05:11to fight
01:05:12on because
01:05:13that way
01:05:14eventually, at
01:05:15some point in
01:05:16time, the
01:05:18Russians will
01:05:18come to
01:05:19understand that
01:05:20they can never
01:05:21gain victory in
01:05:22Ukraine and
01:05:23they will
01:05:24capitulate and
01:05:25come to terms
01:05:26on the basis
01:05:27of Zelensky's
01:05:28demands.
01:05:29Again, the
01:05:30position he has
01:05:31taken, well,
01:05:33basically since
01:05:34the failure of
01:05:35the 2023
01:05:36summer
01:05:37counter-offensive
01:05:38and he has
01:05:39never shifted
01:05:39from it.
01:05:40Now, what are
01:05:41the Europeans
01:05:41doing?
01:05:42Well, it
01:05:44may surprise
01:05:44you to learn,
01:05:45it won't
01:05:45surprise you to
01:05:46learn, that
01:05:47we have had
01:05:47another
01:05:48meeting run
01:05:51basically by
01:05:52Macron and
01:05:53Starmer and
01:05:54yet another
01:05:55meeting of
01:05:57the coalition
01:05:58of the
01:05:58willing.
01:05:59Now, I've
01:06:01spoken about
01:06:03Starmer's
01:06:06monomaniac
01:06:07fixation with
01:06:09Ukraine, even
01:06:11as the
01:06:13economic
01:06:13situation in
01:06:14Britain
01:06:15deteriorates
01:06:16fast, but
01:06:18I'm going to
01:06:20suggest this is
01:06:20becoming
01:06:21dangerous for
01:06:23Britain itself,
01:06:24in fact it is
01:06:25dangerous for
01:06:26Britain itself,
01:06:27and one
01:06:29can see
01:06:30more and
01:06:31more concerns
01:06:31being expressed
01:06:32about this and
01:06:33apparently there
01:06:34are rumblings
01:06:35now within
01:06:36the Labour
01:06:37Party, the
01:06:38government
01:06:38party, about
01:06:39the fact that
01:06:40the Prime
01:06:41Minister seems
01:06:42to be more
01:06:42concerned with
01:06:44Ukraine, he
01:06:46appears to
01:06:47love another
01:06:49country and
01:06:50care about
01:06:51another country,
01:06:53Ukraine, more
01:06:54than his
01:06:55own.
01:06:56Anyway, there's
01:06:58been another
01:06:58meeting of the
01:07:00coalition, the
01:07:01meeting, willing,
01:07:02the chiefs, the
01:07:03various military
01:07:04people who went
01:07:05to Ukraine have
01:07:07apparently come
01:07:08back and
01:07:09reported, it's
01:07:10not clear exactly
01:07:11what they did
01:07:12report, but we've
01:07:14had a long
01:07:14article about this
01:07:16in the Daily
01:07:16Telegraph, they've
01:07:19apparently suggested
01:07:20that a small force
01:07:21can go to
01:07:21Ukraine and
01:07:23its job would
01:07:24be to rebuild
01:07:25and train the
01:07:27Ukrainian army in
01:07:28conditions of a
01:07:30ceasefire so
01:07:31that it could
01:07:31withstand the
01:07:33Russians when
01:07:34the Russians
01:07:35eventually choose
01:07:36to go back on
01:07:37the offensive
01:07:38again and that
01:07:39would be a
01:07:40five-year mission
01:07:41supposedly to
01:07:43bring the
01:07:43Ukrainians back
01:07:44to that level
01:07:46where they can
01:07:47withstand the
01:07:47Russians.
01:07:48Now, here we
01:07:51are entering into
01:07:52the world of
01:07:53complete make
01:07:54believe because
01:07:55there's been no
01:07:56shortage of
01:07:57training of
01:07:58Ukrainian troops
01:07:59by Western
01:08:00advisers since
01:08:02the start of the
01:08:03special military
01:08:03operation and
01:08:05before.
01:08:06The Ukrainians
01:08:07have been grumbling
01:08:07and complaining
01:08:08about the quality
01:08:09of the training
01:08:10that they have
01:08:11been provided
01:08:12and of course
01:08:13in reality we're
01:08:14not just talking
01:08:15about training
01:08:16to bring the
01:08:17Ukrainian force
01:08:18back up to the
01:08:19level that they
01:08:20were in say on
01:08:22the eve of the
01:08:24summer 2023
01:08:26counter offensive
01:08:27would require an
01:08:28enormous commitment
01:08:30of resources by
01:08:33the Western
01:08:33powers by the
01:08:34European powers
01:08:35because the
01:08:36Americans are
01:08:37making it quite
01:08:38clear that they're
01:08:38washing their
01:08:39hands of the
01:08:39whole affair.
01:08:41So the Europeans
01:08:42would have to
01:08:42step up arms
01:08:44production.
01:08:44They would have
01:08:45to supply all
01:08:45these arms to
01:08:47Ukraine, primarily
01:08:49to Ukraine.
01:08:49They'd have to
01:08:50rebuild the
01:08:51Ukrainian air
01:08:52force from
01:08:52scratch, presumably
01:08:54with European
01:08:55fighter jets.
01:08:57They'd have to
01:08:58rebuild the
01:08:59Ukrainian army
01:09:00again, all over
01:09:01again with new
01:09:02tanks and new
01:09:03armoured vehicles.
01:09:05It is all
01:09:06completely
01:09:08unrealistic.
01:09:09There's actually
01:09:10been a German
01:09:10team that has
01:09:11returned from
01:09:12Ukraine to
01:09:13Germany, and
01:09:15they're saying
01:09:15that much of
01:09:16the equipment
01:09:16that's been
01:09:17supplied to
01:09:17Ukraine by
01:09:18the Western
01:09:19powers doesn't
01:09:20work.
01:09:21The Leopard 2,
01:09:22when it breaks
01:09:24down, there is
01:09:25really no ability
01:09:26to repair it in
01:09:27the field.
01:09:28By the way, I've
01:09:30seen photos of
01:09:32abandoned Leopard
01:09:332s, what look
01:09:35like intact Leopard
01:09:362s, left behind
01:09:38by the Ukrainian
01:09:40army in Kursk
01:09:41region.
01:09:42The Russians
01:09:42have now got
01:09:43complete Leopard
01:09:452s and no
01:09:46doubt are
01:09:46testing them
01:09:47and developing
01:09:49counters to
01:09:50them, just
01:09:50saying.
01:09:51Anyway, so
01:09:52Leopard 2,
01:09:55fragile and
01:09:58difficult to
01:09:59operate.
01:10:00The Leopard
01:10:001, because of
01:10:02its thin armour
01:10:03and its light
01:10:04gun, unsuitable
01:10:05for use as a
01:10:06tank.
01:10:07It can only be
01:10:08used as
01:10:10self-propelled
01:10:11artillery, exactly
01:10:13as Brian
01:10:14Beletic
01:10:14predicted, just
01:10:16saying.
01:10:19The German
01:10:20self-propelled
01:10:22howitzers that
01:10:23were provided to
01:10:24Ukraine, susceptible
01:10:26to constant
01:10:26breakdowns and
01:10:28unsuitable for
01:10:30field conditions
01:10:31in Ukraine.
01:10:32The Iris-T
01:10:33system that the
01:10:35Germans provide,
01:10:37effective up to
01:10:38a point, but
01:10:39the missiles are
01:10:40too expensive
01:10:41and Ukraine
01:10:42has too few
01:10:46of them to
01:10:47make a
01:10:48significant
01:10:48difference.
01:10:49By the way, it's
01:10:49a very, very
01:10:50long time since
01:10:52I've heard Ukraine
01:10:52make any claims
01:10:54about shooting
01:10:54down any
01:10:56Russian aircraft,
01:10:57just saying.
01:10:58And the
01:11:00patriot system
01:11:02that Germany
01:11:03donated, apparently
01:11:04old, susceptible
01:11:06to breakdown as
01:11:07well, and not
01:11:08very effective
01:11:08either.
01:11:10In fact, Ukraine's
01:11:11air defence
01:11:12system seems to
01:11:13have effectively
01:11:14broken down, and
01:11:16of the F-16s, we
01:11:19hear little or
01:11:20nothing.
01:11:21But nonetheless,
01:11:22Europeans are going
01:11:23to spend the next
01:11:24five years,
01:11:24supposedly, in
01:11:26Ukraine, rebuilding
01:11:28the Ukrainian
01:11:32army back up to
01:11:33that kind of
01:11:34level, with
01:11:35tanks and
01:11:36armored vehicles
01:11:37which don't
01:11:38exist at
01:11:39horrendous cost.
01:11:41And of course,
01:11:41as to the
01:11:42Russians, well,
01:11:44the Russians
01:11:45apparently are
01:11:47going to simply
01:11:48sit back with
01:11:50their arms
01:11:51folded and are
01:11:53going to do
01:11:54nothing.
01:11:54because apparently
01:11:56the French
01:11:56team told
01:11:59the various
01:12:00European leaders
01:12:01there's absolutely
01:12:02nothing to worry
01:12:03about if the
01:12:05Russians are
01:12:07taking so long
01:12:08to capture
01:12:08territory in
01:12:09Ukraine before
01:12:11the Western
01:12:11troops come.
01:12:13Well, they are
01:12:14unlikely to
01:12:15risk getting
01:12:17into a fight
01:12:19with the Western
01:12:20troops, the
01:12:21Europeans, the
01:12:21French and the
01:12:22British, because
01:12:23obviously the
01:12:24British and the
01:12:24French are so
01:12:25much better than
01:12:27the Ukrainians,
01:12:28that even though
01:12:29they will be
01:12:29there in minuscule
01:12:31numbers, they'll
01:12:32be able to take
01:12:33on the Russian
01:12:33army by
01:12:34themselves, with
01:12:35the Ukrainians
01:12:36alongside, and
01:12:38the Russians
01:12:39will not dare
01:12:42fight against
01:12:43them.
01:12:44It is absolute
01:12:46fantasy, but you
01:12:47can find that
01:12:48very thing set
01:12:49out in the
01:12:50Daily
01:12:51Telegraph, that
01:12:52very comment
01:12:53from the
01:12:54French set
01:12:54out in the
01:12:55Daily
01:12:55Telegraph that
01:12:56the Russians
01:12:57are going to
01:12:57be intimidated,
01:12:59afraid of the
01:13:00presence of the
01:13:01British and the
01:13:02French troops, and
01:13:03for that reason
01:13:04they won't want
01:13:05to take them on
01:13:06in battle.
01:13:07Now, as I
01:13:08said, all of
01:13:09this is
01:13:10completely
01:13:10unrealistic, and
01:13:12apparently most
01:13:13of the countries
01:13:14that attended this
01:13:15meeting actually
01:13:16were pretty
01:13:17forthright and
01:13:18said so.
01:13:19It seems that
01:13:21the so-called
01:13:22coalition of
01:13:23the willing has
01:13:24now dwindled to
01:13:26six states,
01:13:27Britain and
01:13:28France, a
01:13:29third country,
01:13:30which may be
01:13:31Denmark, probably
01:13:32is, and the
01:13:33three Baltic
01:13:34states.
01:13:35No one else
01:13:36wants to become
01:13:37involved, even
01:13:39Sweden, which is
01:13:40very, very
01:13:41hostile to
01:13:42Russia, and
01:13:42has just
01:13:43provided Ukraine
01:13:44with another
01:13:45big weapons
01:13:46and support
01:13:47package.
01:13:48Anyway, they've
01:13:49said that they
01:13:50regard all of
01:13:51this as unwise
01:13:52and premature.
01:13:54Nonetheless, it
01:13:56looks as if
01:13:56Starmer and
01:13:57Macron are not
01:13:58going to give
01:13:59up.
01:14:00They're going to
01:14:00go on,
01:14:01pressing with
01:14:03this terrible
01:14:05idea, and
01:14:06they're doing
01:14:07it, in my
01:14:07opinion, mostly
01:14:09because, well,
01:14:10partly because
01:14:11they generally
01:14:14do want to
01:14:16prevent any
01:14:17kind of peace
01:14:18agreement in
01:14:23Ukraine of
01:14:25the sort that
01:14:25the Americans
01:14:26and the
01:14:27Russians might
01:14:27agree with
01:14:28each other.
01:14:30Now, over
01:14:31the last few
01:14:32hours, in
01:14:33fact, just
01:14:33before I
01:14:34started making
01:14:35this program,
01:14:36reports suddenly
01:14:37appeared that
01:14:38Stephen
01:14:38Whitgolf,
01:14:40Donald Trump's
01:14:40envoy, is
01:14:41back in
01:14:42Russia.
01:14:43He is
01:14:43meeting with
01:14:44Kirill
01:14:45Dimitriev, the
01:14:46head of the
01:14:46Russian Investment
01:14:47Fund in
01:14:48St. Petersburg.
01:14:50He will then be
01:14:51travelling to
01:14:51Moscow, where he
01:14:52will have a
01:14:53further meeting
01:14:54with Putin.
01:14:55Peskov, Putin's
01:14:57spokesman, is
01:14:58saying that
01:15:00the purpose of
01:15:01the meeting
01:15:01from the
01:15:02Russian point
01:15:03of view will
01:15:04be for Putin
01:15:06to explain to
01:15:08Whitgolf
01:15:09Russia's
01:15:10concerns, and
01:15:11I suspect that
01:15:12those concerns
01:15:13will mostly
01:15:14be about
01:15:16Ukraine's
01:15:17egregious and
01:15:19undeniable
01:15:21violations of
01:15:22the energy
01:15:23truce.
01:15:24In fact,
01:15:25from what I
01:15:26can tell,
01:15:26the Ukrainians
01:15:27have if
01:15:27anything
01:15:28stepped up
01:15:29their attack
01:15:30on the
01:15:31Russian energy
01:15:32system during
01:15:33the time
01:15:34frame of
01:15:35the energy
01:15:35truce.
01:15:36The Russians
01:15:37are going to
01:15:37complain about
01:15:38that, and
01:15:39they're going
01:15:39to tell the
01:15:40Ukraine, the
01:15:41Whitgolf, look,
01:15:43we said that
01:15:43the Ukrainians
01:15:44cannot be
01:15:45trusted, and
01:15:46here you have
01:15:46the proof.
01:15:48I understand
01:15:49there's been
01:15:51comments from
01:15:52Russian officials
01:15:53that the
01:15:54Trump
01:15:55administration
01:15:56has come to
01:15:58understand
01:15:59Zelensky's
01:16:01extreme
01:16:02visceral
01:16:03hatred of
01:16:05Russians,
01:16:06which obviously
01:16:07isn't confined
01:16:08to Zelensky
01:16:09himself, and
01:16:11I've no doubt
01:16:13that that's
01:16:13something else
01:16:14which Putin
01:16:16will bring up
01:16:17in the meeting
01:16:19with Whitgolf.
01:16:20Now, this
01:16:22whole dialogue
01:16:25between the
01:16:25United States
01:16:26and Russia is
01:16:27very difficult
01:16:28at some levels
01:16:29to understand.
01:16:31We seem to
01:16:32be as far
01:16:34from a
01:16:35ceasefire as
01:16:36ever.
01:16:38There don't
01:16:39seem to be
01:16:39proper
01:16:40discussions about
01:16:42the substantive
01:16:43issues, what the
01:16:44Russians call the
01:16:44root causes of
01:16:46the war.
01:16:47There's been a
01:16:47good article in
01:16:49Responsible
01:16:50Statecraft by
01:16:51Anatole Leven,
01:16:52which says that
01:16:53in order for
01:16:55there to be
01:16:55peace, there
01:16:57have to be
01:16:58discussions about
01:17:00the root causes
01:17:01of the war.
01:17:01The idea of
01:17:02having a
01:17:03ceasefire, and
01:17:04then waiting,
01:17:05getting a
01:17:05ceasefire, and
01:17:06then discussing
01:17:08the root causes
01:17:10of the war, all
01:17:11that is going to
01:17:12do, given the
01:17:13attitudes, that
01:17:14certainly the
01:17:15Ukrainians have,
01:17:16their unwillingness
01:17:17to make any
01:17:18substantive
01:17:19concessions
01:17:20whatsoever, all
01:17:22that will
01:17:23happen is
01:17:24that the
01:17:26negotiations will
01:17:27be spun out
01:17:28indefinitely, and
01:17:30we will end up
01:17:31with another
01:17:32frozen conflict,
01:17:33which the
01:17:34Russians have
01:17:35correctly said
01:17:36is completely
01:17:37unacceptable for
01:17:38them.
01:17:38So, I'm
01:17:42sure Putin is
01:17:44also going to
01:17:45say that to
01:17:46Witkoff.
01:17:46Putin is also
01:17:47going to point
01:17:48out to Witkoff
01:17:49that there
01:17:52are no
01:17:53political
01:17:54figures in
01:17:56Kiev who
01:17:58are going to
01:18:00take substantially
01:18:01different positions
01:18:02from the ones
01:18:03that Zelensky
01:18:04has taken.
01:18:05Now, I say
01:18:06that, again,
01:18:08we've had
01:18:08comments to
01:18:09this effect
01:18:09from Russian
01:18:10officials over
01:18:11the last 24
01:18:12hours.
01:18:15I would
01:18:16quickly add
01:18:18that Yulia
01:18:19Timoshenko has
01:18:21now proposed
01:18:22the Korean
01:18:23variant as
01:18:25the solution
01:18:26to the
01:18:27conflict, a
01:18:28situation where
01:18:29the Russians
01:18:30retain what
01:18:30they have, but
01:18:32Ukraine doesn't
01:18:32recognize it.
01:18:34Ukraine is
01:18:35free, whatever
01:18:36is left of
01:18:36Ukraine is
01:18:37free to make
01:18:38whatever
01:18:39alliances or
01:18:40commitments it
01:18:40chooses, it
01:18:42rebuilds its
01:18:42own armed
01:18:43forces, there
01:18:44are demilitarized
01:18:45zones, and
01:18:47that kind of
01:18:48thing.
01:18:48Now, that
01:18:50might be
01:18:50proposals that
01:18:52are attractive
01:18:53to some in
01:18:54the West, but
01:18:56the Russians
01:18:56will not
01:18:57accept them,
01:18:58and if that
01:19:00is as far as
01:19:01Timoshenko is
01:19:02prepared to
01:19:03go, we are
01:19:05no further
01:19:06forward than
01:19:07we would be
01:19:08with Zelensky.
01:19:10And as I
01:19:11said, I think
01:19:11the Russians are
01:19:12going to point
01:19:13that out to
01:19:14Witkoff as
01:19:15well, and
01:19:16they're going to
01:19:17say to
01:19:17Witkoff this,
01:19:18if you really
01:19:19want to move
01:19:20forward with
01:19:20peace, it has
01:19:22to be negotiated
01:19:23directly between
01:19:25Russia and the
01:19:26United States.
01:19:27The Ukrainians
01:19:28are never
01:19:28going to
01:19:29agree to
01:19:30a peace in
01:19:31that form, and
01:19:33ultimately what
01:19:34has to happen
01:19:35is that the
01:19:36United States
01:19:37and Russia
01:19:38must together
01:19:39dictate terms
01:19:41to the
01:19:42Europeans and
01:19:43to Ukraine.
01:19:44The Europeans
01:19:45have no
01:19:45interest in
01:19:47peace.
01:19:48Starmer's
01:19:50and Macron's
01:19:51obsessive
01:19:53talk about
01:19:56sending
01:19:56European
01:19:57troops into
01:19:58Ukraine,
01:20:00confirms it,
01:20:01and the
01:20:03rhetoric and
01:20:05the actions
01:20:06coming from
01:20:07Kiev show
01:20:09the same
01:20:10thing.
01:20:11So, either
01:20:12we have that
01:20:14agreement,
01:20:15either we have
01:20:15that negotiation,
01:20:17or we
01:20:19continue with
01:20:20this offensive
01:20:21that we have
01:20:22just begun,
01:20:24and we are
01:20:25confident, the
01:20:26Russians are
01:20:26confident, that
01:20:27that offensive
01:20:28will be
01:20:28successful,
01:20:29because all
01:20:30of the facts
01:20:31point to it
01:20:32being so,
01:20:34and then
01:20:34maybe in the
01:20:35autumn we can
01:20:36come back and
01:20:38look at this
01:20:38whole situation
01:20:39again.
01:20:41But by that
01:20:43point, the
01:20:45dynamic will
01:20:46have radically
01:20:47changed, and
01:20:49it will be
01:20:50Ukraine and
01:20:52the Western
01:20:53powers, which
01:20:54will be in a
01:20:55much weaker
01:20:55position than
01:20:56the one in
01:20:57which they're
01:20:58in now.
01:21:00Now, all of
01:21:01this is being
01:21:02said by the
01:21:03Russians to a
01:21:04government in
01:21:05Washington, which
01:21:07is completely
01:21:08absorbed by the
01:21:10tariff crisis.
01:21:12Now, here I'm
01:21:13going to mention,
01:21:14I'm going to
01:21:14finish this
01:21:15program by
01:21:16discussing some
01:21:17information I've
01:21:18received from a
01:21:19certain source,
01:21:20which, who's
01:21:21been reliable in
01:21:23the past, and
01:21:24which, by the
01:21:25way, I think
01:21:26probably is true,
01:21:28but which
01:21:28provides a
01:21:29particular Russian
01:21:31take about the
01:21:34tariff crisis,
01:21:37which is both
01:21:38interesting and
01:21:40disturbing.
01:21:41Now, this,
01:21:43again, focuses on
01:21:46discussions that
01:21:47have been taking
01:21:48place in the
01:21:49Russian parliament,
01:21:50the Duma, and
01:21:52these are
01:21:52comments, these
01:21:53are opinions,
01:21:55which appear to
01:21:55be shared by a
01:21:56number of people
01:21:57within the
01:21:58Duma, but
01:21:59which centre on
01:22:01one particular
01:22:02political figure
01:22:03there.
01:22:04I am not going
01:22:05to name him,
01:22:06because, again,
01:22:07doing so might
01:22:07affect the
01:22:09position of the
01:22:10source, but
01:22:11anyway, this
01:22:13particular
01:22:13individual, this
01:22:15MP, is
01:22:16someone who is
01:22:17known to me,
01:22:18by the way,
01:22:19who has an
01:22:19interesting
01:22:20background,
01:22:21extending back
01:22:22to the
01:22:23Brezhnev era,
01:22:24and who has
01:22:25always struck me
01:22:26as being quite
01:22:26influential, and
01:22:28very well
01:22:29connected indeed.
01:22:31Anyway, this
01:22:33person's view,
01:22:34and that of
01:22:35various others,
01:22:38in the Duma,
01:22:40and in the
01:22:41wider political
01:22:42class, is that
01:22:44the latest
01:22:44things that we
01:22:45have been seeing
01:22:46coming out of
01:22:46Washington in the
01:22:48last few weeks,
01:22:50are not just a
01:22:52recalibration of
01:22:54American economic
01:22:55policy, adopting
01:22:57tariffs and such
01:22:59things.
01:23:00Rather, they are a
01:23:01kind of stress
01:23:02test on the
01:23:04American economy,
01:23:05a dress rehearsal,
01:23:08if you prefer,
01:23:08for a situation
01:23:10in which the
01:23:12American economy
01:23:13has to find
01:23:14itself, or
01:23:15finds itself,
01:23:17in an
01:23:18all-out
01:23:18military
01:23:19conflict with
01:23:21a superpower
01:23:21adversary.
01:23:23In other words,
01:23:24it's intended to
01:23:25see what
01:23:27parts of the
01:23:28economy might
01:23:29buckle under
01:23:31the stress,
01:23:32where the
01:23:33difficulties would
01:23:34be, in
01:23:35order to
01:23:36take
01:23:36preparatory
01:23:37measures, to
01:23:38prepare to
01:23:40fix those
01:23:41problems in
01:23:43advance of
01:23:44that conflict
01:23:44which is to
01:23:46come.
01:23:47Now, spoken
01:23:48in that way,
01:23:49discussed in
01:23:50that way, it's
01:23:51not difficult to
01:23:51see which
01:23:53conflict, which,
01:23:54what sort of
01:23:55conflict that
01:23:56would be a
01:23:57preparation for.
01:23:59I presume it
01:24:00would be a
01:24:00conflict with
01:24:01China.
01:24:02So, address
01:24:04rehearsal, if
01:24:06you like, for
01:24:07a kind of
01:24:09war economy in
01:24:10the United
01:24:11States, ahead
01:24:12of a
01:24:13conflict in
01:24:15the Asia
01:24:15Pacific region
01:24:16with China,
01:24:18perhaps a
01:24:19conflict not
01:24:20just with
01:24:20China, but
01:24:21with the
01:24:22Eurasian
01:24:22powers,
01:24:23altogether,
01:24:24with Russia
01:24:25as well.
01:24:26Now, I
01:24:27want to
01:24:27stress, I
01:24:28am not
01:24:28suggesting that
01:24:29this is a
01:24:29widespread view
01:24:30in the
01:24:31Kremlin, and
01:24:32I should also
01:24:33make clear that
01:24:34it is not
01:24:34in fact, my
01:24:35view either.
01:24:37I don't
01:24:37believe that
01:24:38this is what
01:24:40lies behind
01:24:41Donald Trump's
01:24:42motivations in
01:24:43making these
01:24:44steps towards
01:24:45tariffs that he
01:24:46has made.
01:24:47On the
01:24:47contrary, I'm
01:24:48quite convinced
01:24:49that they are
01:24:50focused on
01:24:51his project
01:24:53to regenerate
01:24:54American
01:24:55industry and
01:24:57American
01:24:58business in
01:24:59the way that
01:25:00I've discussed
01:25:01in previous
01:25:02programmes.
01:25:02and for
01:25:04the record,
01:25:05I doubt
01:25:07that the
01:25:08people in
01:25:09the Kremlin
01:25:10share these
01:25:12views, but
01:25:14I suspect
01:25:15that these
01:25:16views are
01:25:17now quite
01:25:17common in
01:25:19Russia, that
01:25:21there is a
01:25:22concern that
01:25:23the United
01:25:23States is
01:25:25in effect
01:25:26preparing for
01:25:27war, war
01:25:29presumably with
01:25:30China, and
01:25:32that Russia
01:25:33itself needs
01:25:34to sort
01:25:35itself out
01:25:36in light of
01:25:38these events
01:25:39which are
01:25:40coming.
01:25:41Well,
01:25:42apparently, the
01:25:44view in the
01:25:45Duma is that
01:25:47whether that is
01:25:47the case or
01:25:48not, the fact
01:25:50that these
01:25:51possibilities
01:25:52exist make it
01:25:54even more
01:25:55important to
01:25:56get the
01:25:57military
01:25:57offensive in
01:25:59Ukraine underway
01:26:00and successfully
01:26:02underway, and
01:26:04that Russia
01:26:05must be on
01:26:06its guard for
01:26:08these events
01:26:08because war,
01:26:12wider conflict
01:26:13is there over
01:26:16the horizon.
01:26:17I would say
01:26:19that the
01:26:21Russian mood
01:26:21at the
01:26:22moment is
01:26:23pretty
01:26:24implacable, as
01:26:27I think
01:26:27Mr.
01:26:28Wyckoff is
01:26:29going to
01:26:29discover when
01:26:30he arrives
01:26:31and meets
01:26:32with President
01:26:33Putin, which
01:26:34I expect will
01:26:35be later
01:26:36today.
01:26:37Anyway, I
01:26:38will discuss
01:26:39more of that
01:26:39tomorrow.
01:26:40There will be
01:26:41an awful lot
01:26:41more, I'm
01:26:42sure, spoken
01:26:43about.
01:26:44I would say
01:26:44that Mr.
01:26:45Wyckoff seems
01:26:45to be very
01:26:46busy because
01:26:47he's apparently
01:26:48expected to
01:26:49be in
01:26:49Oman tomorrow
01:26:50where he's
01:26:51involved in
01:26:52the discussions
01:26:53with the
01:26:54Iranians.
01:26:55He's been
01:26:56asked to do
01:26:57too much in
01:26:58too many
01:26:59places, in
01:27:00my opinion.
01:27:01But anyway,
01:27:01that is the
01:27:03end of my
01:27:04programme today.
01:27:05There will be
01:27:06more from me
01:27:06soon.
01:27:07Let me remind
01:27:08you again that
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01:27:28That's me for
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01:27:29More from me
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01:27:31Have a very
01:27:32good day.
01:27:46Bye.
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