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A US-Iran deal may be close, but beneath the surface — tensions are boiling. 🔥
Diplomatic progress signals hope, yet the shadow of war still haunts the region.
The Duran breaks down the latest developments:
🇺🇸 What’s driving Washington to the table?
🇮🇷 What does Tehran really want?
🎯 And why are military options still very much alive?
This isn’t just another negotiation — it’s a critical inflection point for Middle East geopolitics and global stability. 🌍
📺 Stay until the end for a full strategic breakdown you won’t get from legacy media.
A US-Iran deal may be close, but beneath the surface — tensions are boiling. 🔥
Diplomatic progress signals hope, yet the shadow of war still haunts the region.
The Duran breaks down the latest developments:
🇺🇸 What’s driving Washington to the table?
🇮🇷 What does Tehran really want?
🎯 And why are military options still very much alive?
This isn’t just another negotiation — it’s a critical inflection point for Middle East geopolitics and global stability. 🌍
📺 Stay until the end for a full strategic breakdown you won’t get from legacy media.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on with Iran. Are we heading towards
00:06a conflict? Are we going to get some sort of a deal? The concern from the Trump White House is
00:14that Iran can never get nuclear weapons. Iran has said that they're not looking to get nuclear
00:21weapons. You had a mechanism in place during Trump's first term called the JCPOA, which he
00:29pulled out of. And now it looks like he wants a second different JCPOA to ensure that Iran doesn't
00:37get nuclear weapons. If the negotiations that are happening this weekend in Oman, if they break down,
00:45then Trump has threatened action. Very bad things are going to happen to Iran, he said. What are
00:50your thoughts on what's going on with Iran? By the way, he had Netanyahu in the White House the other
00:57day. And one of the subjects that they talked about was, of course, Iran. And Trump did say that
01:04if there is a conflict against Iran, he said that Israel would take a leading role in a war against
01:10Iran. Yeah. Well, first of all, to answer your first question, are we heading towards war with
01:15Iran or peace with Iran? The answer is I don't know, because things seem to change from one day to the
01:21next and one week to the next. I would have thought that Donald Trump would not want a war with Iran.
01:28But sometimes he talks as if a war with Iran is possible in language which makes it much more likely
01:36that it will happen. The problem with Trump is that he has never been able to control his rhetoric.
01:43Now, let's let's talk about this. Firstly, I have always said and I always believe that his decision
01:50to pull out of the JCPOA during his first term was a big mistake. It did control effectively
01:58Iran's nuclear program. He does have one criticism about the JCPOA, which he's made several times,
02:06which I believe is valid. And that was that it was basically a 10 year plan. It was a it was a 10
02:14year restriction. And yes, it could have been followed up. There could have been further
02:21agreements. But in theory, after 10 years, it expired. And if you genuinely believed that Iran did
02:29have a plan to develop a nuclear bomb. Well, after that 10 years, if the JCPOA had been in existence,
02:36Iran could have moved forward and developed a nuclear bomb. And of course, it expires,
02:43it technically expires. It's still in theory in place, by the way, it expires in the autumn.
02:50Now, what Trump has been saying is that he wants an indefinite commitment from Iran,
02:57never to develop nuclear weapons. The Iranians, for their part, say that they have no plans
03:03to develop nuclear weapons and have no desire to do so. Logically, that ought to provide
03:11a good basis for a compromise. The two sides agree or seem to agree on the main thing or say they do.
03:21Trump doesn't want Iran ever to have nuclear weapons. Iran says it doesn't want ever to have
03:29nuclear weapons. So you would have thought that it would be straightforward. It has not been
03:37straightforward. Because of course, on top of everything else, there's all of these other
03:42issues that constantly come in. The United States, and this isn't just Trump, doesn't like the government
03:50of Iran, doesn't like the whole system in Iran, would like to see it changed. Well, the Iranians
03:59are not going to change their political system, because the United States doesn't like it. I think
04:04that is the first thing the Americans need to understand. The United States doesn't like aspects
04:10of Iran's foreign policy. The fact that the Iranians have been supporting people like the Houthis,
04:15Hezbollah in Lebanon, and things of that kind. The Iranians are not going to change their entire
04:22foreign policy, because the United States doesn't like it. The Iranians have ballistic missiles and
04:29other weapons programs. Again, the United States may not like that, but the Iranians are not going to
04:37bargain that away. Where I think the United States does have legitimate concerns is that the Iranians
04:46have this enormous stockpile of enriched uranium. They do have the potential to create a nuclear bomb.
04:56They can apparently have enough enriched uranium to create six nuclear bombs. And I can see that the
05:05United States would want all of that done away with. So, provided it's all kept to that narrow
05:13issue, a deal is possible. Now, the problem is that not only has the United States brought in all of
05:28these other issues, Iran's foreign policies, political system, the fact that it has ballistic missiles,
05:37not only have the Israelis also insisted on bringing up all of these other issues, but the United States
05:44doesn't seem to know how to deal with Iran and how to negotiate with them. And the Americans seem to
05:51believe that if they threaten the Iranians, that will force the Iranians to make concessions,
05:56which it has never done. And the Americans also, well, to give an example, the Americans also don't know
06:07how to conduct negotiations as negotiations with Iran. So, the Iranians and the Americans came to this
06:15agreement, for example, to meet in Oman. They weren't going to meet directly because the Iranians had
06:22ruled out direct meetings with the Americans. But the Omanis were going to act as mediators. They were
06:29going to go from one room to the other, as often happens, in mediation and pass messages between the
06:34Americans and the Iranians. That was an entirely proper thing. It happens often. It's absolutely clear
06:43to me that that that was intended to be a secret private meeting. It was not supposed to be disclosed
06:52publicly. And the Americans disclosed it. We had Trump announce the fact that the meeting was taking
06:59place whilst Netanyahu was in Washington, in Netanyahu's presence. And that has upset the Iranians.
07:11If you go to the Iranian media, you can see that they were not pleased that the discussions were
07:17disclosed in that way. The other thing that the Americans need to do is that they need to engage
07:24with Iran's allies and friends. Iran, contrary to what you read right across the media in the West,
07:32is in a much stronger position today than it was back in 2015. Today, it is a member of the BRICS,
07:39which it wasn't then. Today, it has economic and strategic partnerships with both China and
07:46Iran. Russia has just ratified a treaty, a partnership treaty with Iran. If this is handled properly,
07:58if those allies of Iran are also brought into the picture, which in the case of the Russians,
08:05they have fully indicated that they would be prepared to do. Yes, a compromise is needed.
08:13But the Americans have to stop threatening the Iranians, stop making demands of the Iranians
08:18that the Iranians are never going to fulfill, and develop a coherent diplomatic strategy and make clear
08:24to themselves what objective it is that they are seeking. Iran, which does not have a uranium stockpile,
08:37is not in a position to develop nuclear weapons, and makes a long-term commitment never to acquire
08:45nuclear weapons, which the United States can rely upon, is, in my opinion, within reach.
08:51But I have to say, judging from what's happened in recent weeks, in fact, in recent years,
08:58I am far from confident that we will get there, and the possibility of a war between the United
09:04States and Iran over the next few weeks or months, with Israel also involved, and with the Iranians
09:14moving forward and exploding an atomic device sometime over the next course of the next year.
09:21I'm afraid these possibilities are real.
09:24Yeah, I believe you said that Iran has agreements with China and Russia, I believe you said with Iran and Iran.
09:31Anyway, just wanted to clarify that. China and Russia, you're talking about the trade agreement that they have.
09:36They have a trade agreement with China. They have a much, much more work-through treaty with Russia,
09:45which, as I said, the Russians have just ratified. And this contains security and defence provisions,
09:53which actually gives Russia enormous leverage over Iran. They're in a position to supply weapons to Iran,
10:01fighter jets, air defence missiles, all of those sorts of things. And at the same time,
10:08they can actually provide the United States with guarantees that if an agreement is made with Iran,
10:15the Iranians will honour it.
10:19A war with Iran, the last thing the United States needs, the last thing the region needs,
10:25the last thing Iran needs, the last thing the region the world needs.
10:28You would think that the Trump administration would do everything in its power to cool down the rhetoric,
10:39stop with the threats, stop threatening all the time, get to negotiations, figure out a solution with Iran
10:46when it comes to the nuclear weapons, utilize Russia, because Russia can definitely play an active role
10:54in this process, this negotiation settlement, if you can get there, and keep things stable in the region,
11:05in the Middle East, so you can focus on domestic issues, which you've got a lot of to deal with.
11:12I mean, that's the most rational, logical way forward.
11:17Why go to war other than to fulfil the dreams of these neocons like Lindsey Graham
11:24and to act as a distraction from the problems that you have at home?
11:29Well, absolutely. This is, this is, there is there, one could see the deal that can be done
11:39and how that deal would satisfy the core interests of each side.
11:44Iran doesn't want or says it doesn't want to acquire nuclear weapons.
11:48I believe them. Acquiring nuclear weapons would be enormously dangerous for Iran.
11:54It would pitch Iran into a nuclear arms race with Israel, which you could never win,
11:59and it would create permanent threats for Iran of pre-emptive strikes by Israel and potentially the United States.
12:07So, the Iranians have an interest in not going there.
12:11The Americans have an interest in avoiding a war with Iran,
12:15which would simply suck them in to a conflict in the Middle East against Iran,
12:21a country of 85 million people with a huge territory, rugged landscape where they can hide all sorts of things.
12:32I mean, it would be, it'd be a nightmare situation for the United States to get drawn into a conflict with Iran,
12:39which would most probably anyway result in Iran eventually acquiring nuclear weapons.
12:47So, a deal is possible and the risks if a deal is not done and you choose the option of war instead are disastrous.
13:01So, I don't see why there shouldn't be a deal, but that is the logical, rational side of me.
13:07Unfortunately, we see constantly all of these other problems get in the way and we see the United States now bombing the Houthis.
13:17I have no idea why the United States is currently bombing the Houthis, by the way.
13:23Why does the United States think that bombing the Houthis will succeed now when it has failed before,
13:29when the Saudis attempted it and it failed before?
13:32Why the United States is now talking about sending ground troops to fight the Houthis?
13:37Because there are those reports out there which would be piling folly upon folly.
13:44What is the logic and sense of all of this?
13:48It makes no sense to me, none at all.
13:51Why get embroiled in a conflict between Israel and Iran when the best way to protect Israel is to make sure that you do a deal which guarantees that Iran cannot get nuclear weapons
14:06and the Russians are there to make sure that that never happens.
14:09Why go down that route of war?
14:13And yet, unfortunately, I can't help but think that sometimes we seem to be moving in precisely that direction.
14:22And obviously, there are the advocates of conflict with Iran who are very strong in the United States, Lindsay Graham.
14:30But I suspect some people within the Trump administration as well.
14:36And then there is what you've spoken out against absolutely rightly many times, this mantra that you must seek peace through strength.
14:47It seduces you into taking belligerent and confrontational positions which actually work out against your interests.
14:59Peace through strength is a lure, it's a temptation towards war when what you should be seeking is peace.
15:07The deal with Iran is there on the table.
15:10It obviously requires negotiation.
15:13I'm not suggesting that negotiation will be straightforward.
15:16But it can be done, especially if you expand this negotiation to include third parties.
15:23And the key third party has to be Russia.
15:26Peace through common sense.
15:29How about that?
15:29Well, absolutely.
15:31How about that?
15:31That's a great one.
15:33Yeah.
15:33It's a great one.
15:34Feel free to take it, Trump administration.
15:36Feel free to take it.
15:38Can you just address the pushback for the Houthis?
15:42Because I get this all the time as well when I talk about why is the U.S. in this conflict with Houthis?
15:49Or what is it?
15:49I don't even know.
15:50Is it a conflict?
15:51I don't know what it is.
15:52I really don't.
15:53Because Trump has never explained what it is.
15:55But the pushback that you always get is, well, this is about keeping the shipping lanes open.
16:00And this is because the Houthis were attacking ships.
16:03And so this has to be done.
16:04If we don't do it, who else is going to do it?
16:06And we have to keep the shipping lanes open and all of these things.
16:08How do you address that argument?
16:10Well, first of all, it doesn't succeed in keeping the shipping lanes open.
16:15I mean, that's the first thing to say.
16:17I mean, bombing the Houthis, who are very well entrenched and embedded in Yemen and who have all kinds of facilities and installations and all that kind of thing, isn't going to prevent them disrupting shipping in the Red Sea if that is what they choose to do.
16:33Now, the Houthis, for their part, are connected to the conflict in Gaza, in Israel.
16:44So fighting the Houthis isn't going to prevent them disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.
16:54The Houthis have previously not disrupted shipping in the Red Sea when there is a ceasefire in Gaza.
17:04You could work to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, and that might stop the Houthis from disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.
17:12But there is another way that you might be able to get the Houthis to stop disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.
17:21That is to negotiate a deal with Iran.
17:24If Iran, which is the primary supporter of the Houthis, has a stable relationship with the United States that it doesn't want to disrupt, then the Iranians might be able to use their leverage over the Houthis, which is considerable, to get them to stop disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.
17:50If you threaten the Iranians in the way that you're doing now, if you refuse to deal with them properly, then, of course, the Iranians have no incentive to use that leverage.
18:04And we'll continue to support the Houthis to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.
18:09In the Middle East, all of these conflicts are connected to each other, sorting out the main ones, the one between the United States and Israel and Iran.
18:23And the other one, the problem between the Israelis and the Palestinians is the way to sorting out all the others.
18:34If you don't sort out those problems, then you're never going to have a full peace in the Middle East.
18:40Now, sorting out the problems between the Israelis and the Palestinians, I'm afraid, is a labor of many years.
18:49I don't say that with any pleasure.
18:51Sorting out the conflict between the United States and Iran.
18:55And I'm not suggesting, by the way, that the United States, after the end of that conflict, suddenly becomes friends with Iran.
19:02I don't see any reason why it should, but stabilizing the relationship, entrenching peace, that, it seems to me, is not difficult.
19:14It does require some tough negotiation, but all the pieces are there.
19:19All they have to be is moved and the outline of an essential deal is there on the table.
19:27Yeah, but you're right, you sort out the Iran issue, the Iran conflict, and that gives you more time and more resources to focus on Palestine and on Gaza.
19:40Absolutely.
19:41On the Palestinians, Israel, Gaza, all of that gives you so much more time.
19:44Absolutely, absolutely.
19:46And then at that point, of course, the Iranians also have an interest in helping you, too, because contrary to what many people think,
19:56they, too, have a reason for a stable Middle East.
20:04People don't get Iran, I think, well, because, as I said, there is this long history of antagonism towards Iran.
20:13But the Iranians had a horrible war, which they had to fight in the 1980s.
20:18It devastated their society.
20:20It is, for them, the single biggest event that shapes their thinking about the Middle East.
20:27They, too, have an interest in sorting out the problems in the Middle East so that they can finally rebuild their economy and address the urgent challenges that they face.
20:40And the Iranian government is as concerned about solving those problems as any rational government is.
20:50And it is a mistake to think that the Iranians are irrational.
20:54All right.
20:54We will end it there.
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