Pasar modal Indonesia lanjutkan rebound ke 6.600-an. Sejumlah saham kembali menguat, namun beberapa juga turun bahkan Auto Rejection Bawah (ARB).
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00This morning, we are joined by Mr. M. Hamzah, CEO of Sahamology.
00:04Good morning, Mr. Hamzah.
00:06Good morning.
00:07Good morning. Thank you for joining us at MarketBuzz.
00:10This morning, we will discuss the value of cheap stocks in the ARB market.
00:15Of course, this will be an educational episode for all of us.
00:20We will discuss the value of cheap stocks in the ARB market.
00:26Of course, this will be an educational episode for all of us.
00:31Before we discuss about the ARB market,
00:35let's talk about the weakness in the ARB market.
00:40Is it just a technical movement,
00:43or is there something fundamental
00:47that makes investors release a lot of stocks into the ARB market?
00:51Mr. Hamzah.
00:53Okay, if we look at the ARB case,
00:57it's actually a mix.
00:59Two things can happen.
01:01First, from a technical point of view,
01:04there is a lack of liquidity,
01:05or maybe there is something fundamental that happened
01:08so that the stock experienced ARB.
01:11Because ARB is not a common condition,
01:17or we can say it's an over-psychology.
01:20So, usually, not only from a technical point of view,
01:24but there is also a significant fundamental change.
01:28Maybe there is a fundamental that suddenly went down,
01:32or maybe there is a failed corporate action,
01:35or maybe there is bad news that happened to the stock.
01:39More or less like that.
01:40Okay, when is the time for us to buy cheap stocks
01:44that are affected by ARB,
01:46or maybe even though there is a significant weakness
01:50and also affected by ARB,
01:52it's not recommended to buy first.
01:55When can we consider those moments for investors?
02:00Okay, when ARB stocks are better avoided.
02:06Because, again, ARB itself...
02:08Although technically it's already very cheap, Mr. Hamzah.
02:11Still, yes.
02:13Again, if we look at ARB itself,
02:16it's a phenomenon that is not common,
02:18and usually it happens because there is a psychological impulse.
02:22But actually, if we want to speculate on ARB stocks,
02:27of course, we have to make sure that this stock has a clear liquidity.
02:32Because usually, ARB stocks are common in non-liquid stocks.
02:38In other words, maybe it's a small daily transaction,
02:42and also a thin bit of liquidity,
02:45so ARB is very likely to happen in a safe condition,
02:51not affected by fundamentals.
02:53So if the fundamentals are safe,
02:56the ARB factor is only caused by several conditions
03:00that have also happened,
03:02such as a trading error,
03:03or maybe a psychology that has a temporary nature,
03:08it can be speculative.
03:10But again, for a condition like this, it's better to avoid it.
03:13Because ARB itself generates high sales pressure.
03:16But is there really one stock, for example, historically,
03:21in terms of volatility, even though the liquidity is quite liquid,
03:26but then there is an issue that affects the bid,
03:30resulting in a psychological impact on the investor,
03:33thus releasing a lot of the stock.
03:35And actually, it turns out that ARB can be used,
03:39considering that if we look at the price movement technically,
03:45it is indeed liquid.
03:46It's just being hit by a psychological issue.
03:51Actually, in a case like that,
03:54a few weeks ago,
03:56we felt that there were stocks that failed to enter the MSCI,
04:01such as Choco Brand, and all kinds,
04:03which actually had good liquidity.
04:07In terms of liquidity, it was okay.
04:09Fundamentally, it was okay.
04:11But indeed, the ARB condition
04:13did not happen because of the fundamental side,
04:17but because of the psychological side of the investor.
04:21The investor hoped that this stock would be cheated by a foreigner,
04:26with the expectation of entering the index,
04:28but because of that, it failed,
04:30so maybe the sales pressure increased.
04:34Fundamentally, it didn't have any impact.
04:38But indeed, from the psychological side of the investor,
04:41who saw this failure as an uncertainty,
04:45so ARB's stock,
04:47in conditions like this,
04:48can still be speculated.
04:53Because the impact should be temporary.
04:57Okay, so if you want to buy at a lower price,
04:59because the stocks that enter ARB are very cheap,
05:03pay attention to the liquidity and fundamentals.
05:06If it doesn't fulfill, just check it first.
05:10Yes.
05:11Liquidity is the most important thing,
05:13because ARB in Samsung is not liquid,
05:15it's a normal thing.
05:17Okay, okay.
05:18We will try to deepen it.
05:21Samsung, which entered ARB yesterday,
05:22among them is Foroo, which fell by 25%,
05:25then there is also PGUN,
05:30then there is LMPI,
05:32and there is also RICY,
05:35and there is also PZZA.
05:37If you look at the stocks that entered the ARB,
05:41with this deep weakness,
05:44is it actually interesting or not?
05:46Some may enter the category of good liquidity,
05:50good fundamentals, like that.
05:52If you look at the liquidity side,
05:56the stock mentioned earlier is not a liquid stock.
06:00So even if it becomes ARB,
06:03it can actually be said to be normal.
06:07In addition, if we look at the investment atmosphere in Indonesia,
06:12now, in the end,
06:14it's not good anymore.
06:16From the Big Bang stock,
06:18it can be pressed up to 2-3%.
06:23So with the investment atmosphere,
06:26the big caps are low,
06:29so by looking at the stocks,
06:32if I say it's 2-3 layers,
06:35and not liquid,
06:36it's normal to see it as ARB.
06:39So even if you want to speculate on these stocks,
06:41I think it's not wise.
06:43Unless it's possible,
06:45in the near future,
06:47there is a corporate action,
06:49maybe it can be an option.
06:51So the balance, of course, from a technical point of view,
06:53liquidity is quite liquid,
06:56and also from a fundamental point of view, it's also interesting.
06:58In the next episode, we will try to discuss your choices,
07:01and also maybe sentiments that seem to be the focus of market players
07:05at the end of this week.
07:07In the next episode, we will continue,
07:09and you stay with us, we will be back soon.