Menteri Koordinator Bidang Pangan Zulkifli Hasan mengklaim pasokan dan harga sembako berada dalam level yang aman menjelang Idulfitri. Hal tersebut akan ditopang produksi beras pada Januari-April 2025, yang berada dalam level tertinggi dalam tujuh tahun terakhir.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) sebelumnya mengatakan terdapat potensi produksi beras sebesar 13,95 juta ton pada Januari-April 2025. Angka itu merupakan yang tertinggi dalam 7 tahun terakhir atau sejak Januari-April 2019.
Kepala BPS Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti menjelaskan potensi kenaikan produksi beras pada Januari-April 2025 adalah 25,99% secara tahunan (year-on-year/yoy) dibandingkan 11,07 juta ton pada Januari-April 2024.
Di sisi lain, Badan Pangan Nasional (Bapanas) memastikan harga pangan pokok tetap stabil menjelang Ramadan 2025, meski ancaman cuaca ekstrem menjadi bayang-bayang yang mampu mengganggu pasokan. Kepala Bapanas Arief Prasetyo Adi menuturkan, langkah ini dilakukan untuk menjaga inflasi pangan tetap terkendali, terutama di tengah kondisi cuaca yang mempengaruhi hasil panen sejumlah komoditas.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) sebelumnya mengatakan terdapat potensi produksi beras sebesar 13,95 juta ton pada Januari-April 2025. Angka itu merupakan yang tertinggi dalam 7 tahun terakhir atau sejak Januari-April 2019.
Kepala BPS Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti menjelaskan potensi kenaikan produksi beras pada Januari-April 2025 adalah 25,99% secara tahunan (year-on-year/yoy) dibandingkan 11,07 juta ton pada Januari-April 2024.
Di sisi lain, Badan Pangan Nasional (Bapanas) memastikan harga pangan pokok tetap stabil menjelang Ramadan 2025, meski ancaman cuaca ekstrem menjadi bayang-bayang yang mampu mengganggu pasokan. Kepala Bapanas Arief Prasetyo Adi menuturkan, langkah ini dilakukan untuk menjaga inflasi pangan tetap terkendali, terutama di tengah kondisi cuaca yang mempengaruhi hasil panen sejumlah komoditas.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Food and Drug Administration
00:13The government has ensured that domestically grown food stocks are able to meet national needs.
00:19Therefore, the Food and Drug Minister, Jule Kifli Hassan,
00:22has asked the public not to worry about the availability of food in the market.
00:31The Ministry of Food and Drug Coordination and the Ministry of Trade
00:34have ensured that the stock is safe and able to meet the needs of the public.
00:39The Food Minister, Jule Kifli Hassan, has estimated that Indonesia's rice surplus
00:42currently reaches 2.5 million tons in the period of January to April 2025.
00:47The figure is the highest in the last seven years.
00:51According to Jule Kifli, the surplus produced from rice production
00:54during the period of January to April 2025 is predicted to reach 13.95 million tons.
01:01Therefore, Jule Kifli has ensured that the rice surplus
01:03will be able to meet the needs of the public until Eid al-Adha 2025.
01:09Indeed, this market is the lowest in the last year.
01:13So, the supply is the lowest.
01:16So, our production in January to April is the highest
01:22in the last seven years.
01:25So, if the rice is safe, there is no problem.
01:32The Minister of Trade, Budi Santoso, has said
01:34that the Ministry of Trade will continue to monitor the movement of food prices
01:37and coordinate with local governments to maintain price stability
01:41as well as the supply of raw materials.
01:43This is done so that the price of raw materials is always available to the public.
01:48Jakarta, IDX Channel.
01:53Mir, to discuss our topic this time,
01:55the government guarantees food stability until Eid al-Adha 2025.
01:59We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Sutarto Alimoso,
02:02who is the Chairperson of the Association of Rice Surplus and Indonesian Rice Entrepreneurs.
02:07Hello, Mr. Tarto, how are you?
02:09Good evening, sir.
02:11Thank you for your time.
02:13Okay, we also have Prof. Dwi,
02:15Andreas Santosa, Senior Professor at IPB,
02:18and also the Chairperson of the Association of Rice Surplus and Indonesian Rice Entrepreneurs.
02:22Hello, Prof. How are you?
02:24Good evening, Mr. Pras.
02:26Thank you for your time, Prof.
02:28And before we discuss further, Mr. Sutarto,
02:31maybe you can update first on the current condition of rice stocks around paddy fields.
02:36Is it still enough or is it decreasing?
02:40Good evening, Mr. Pras.
02:42So, we know that in January and February,
02:48the harvest is not as much as in March, April, and May.
02:58So, the harvest will occur in March, April, and May.
03:08So, in February, the harvest is already there.
03:12If we look at the data from the BPS,
03:15then what the government said,
03:19it is indeed better than last year.
03:22But in terms of cumulative,
03:25actually, if we compare it to the monthly needs,
03:32actually, in February, the production is still below the monthly needs.
03:38But we also know that the stock in the community and in the government,
03:48according to the government data,
03:51there are estimated to be more than 8 million tons at the end of last year.
03:56Okay.
03:57How about in the surrounding areas?
03:59Of course, in the surrounding areas, in January and February,
04:04in general, the situation is definitely smaller,
04:08then the output is bigger, usually like that.
04:13Because the harvest was still less.
04:20So, the position is like that.
04:23But starting in March,
04:26actually, at the end of February,
04:28there has been an increase in the stock in the surrounding areas.
04:34Basically, like that.
04:36Okay.
04:37The current situation,
04:38we see that the harvest position has started in February,
04:42although in terms of volume, it is still below the monthly needs.
04:47But let's see how it will be in March, April, and May this year.
04:52Prof. Dewi, if we look at the existing conditions,
04:54we know that extreme weather is hitting a number of regions in Indonesia.
04:58How do you see the weather factor this time?
05:02There are some of our paddy fields and paddy fields that are also flooded.
05:11Please, Prof.
05:12Yes, in connection with what Mr. Tarto said earlier,
05:16the harvest peak will be in March.
05:20In the next month, the harvest peak,
05:22based on data from the BPS,
05:25our harvest is 5.48 million tons of rice.
05:29Okay.
05:30Then in April, it will drop to 4.97 million tons of rice.
05:35Well, we are indeed at risk.
05:39Why?
05:40Based on various international sources,
05:45we are currently experiencing a wet drought.
05:50And this wet drought,
05:52actually, it's not a wet drought.
05:54Sorry.
05:55In a wet condition.
05:56Okay.
05:57It's already wet, it's even wetter.
05:59I mean, it's the rainy season now.
06:01A wetter rainy season.
06:03Okay.
06:04So, between January to March,
06:07and in March,
06:09based on various international sources,
06:11it will end in the year 2025.
06:15Well, and the trouble is,
06:18in the year 2025,
06:20we will also be in the harvest peak position.
06:23February-March.
06:25And this has certainly made it difficult for our friends,
06:29our farmers,
06:30and also the network of Mr. Tarto,
06:33because when we harvest, the conditions are wet.
06:37Moreover, now there is a government policy
06:40to abolish refugees.
06:42So, this is what we need to anticipate together.
06:44Okay.
06:45When the harvest is in a wet condition,
06:47of course, the randomness will decrease,
06:51and the production will certainly have a national impact
06:54on production.
06:56Why?
06:57Because this randomness is very influential.
06:59In our experience,
07:01the randomness of GKP in the TANIKAPI network
07:03is between 49 to 52.
07:06If from GKP to rice transformation.
07:09And this possibility will be even lower.
07:12So, these are the things that need to be anticipated,
07:14related to that.
07:15Then the second thing to be anticipated,
07:17several locations.
07:18Indeed, if we look at this,
07:20we are from the TANI network only,
07:22from January-February harvest,
07:25there are many in East Java, Central Java,
07:28then West Java,
07:30in our TANI network in Indramayu,
07:32in several other places,
07:34will harvest in this month,
07:37March to April.
07:39March is not that much,
07:41later the peak is in April.
07:43Well, of course, after the harvest,
07:45they plant.
07:47This is for some specific areas,
07:49this is also necessary to pay attention to,
07:51because later when they harvest,
07:53they plant and the rainfall is still too high.
07:57Right?
07:58So, planting in high rainfall,
08:00there is a possibility that they have to plant several times,
08:04repeatedly, for several areas.
08:06But for the West Java area,
08:09I think it will be safe,
08:10because they will harvest,
08:12and after that, plant again for the second harvest season,
08:15around March-April-May,
08:17so it will be safe.
08:19Well, of course, what we need to anticipate,
08:21because the climate that we hope for together,
08:24is the climate of lanina in 2025.
08:26But various international institutions state that
08:29lanina will end in March,
08:31so that the climate will be back to normal.
08:33So, that's what we need to pay attention to,
08:37so that the possibility of additional planting
08:42is not what we expect if lanina happens.
08:46Okay, but if we look at the data
08:48of the Indonesian Bank Strategist Food Prices
08:51for March 3rd,
08:53a number of food communities experienced a price increase,
08:55although not significant.
08:57How do you see it?
08:59Well, this is related to what we often say,
09:04which is called the horse breeding pattern,
09:06if it's related to food prices, right?
09:09Especially during Ramadan,
09:12during Ramadan, and later when Eid al-Fitr,
09:15so that's the horse breeding.
09:16And this is really what we observe,
09:18and it's really accurate.
09:19A week before fasting,
09:23a week before fasting,
09:24until the beginning of fasting,
09:26the food prices were almost all up.
09:29Okay.
09:30What was the increase?
09:31Between 2% to 22%.
09:332% is sugar,
09:3522% is large red chilies.
09:37That's what happened, right?
09:39Until the beginning of fasting.
09:42Then, after the beginning of fasting,
09:44the price went down.
09:46And this is what we observed,
09:48we just looked at the data from the Indonesian Bank,
09:52almost all of them went down.
09:54Almost all of them went down.
09:56Except for some commodities that still went up,
09:59such as red onions.
10:00So there are two patterns,
10:02the first one is the horse breeding pattern,
10:04related to Eid,
10:05and later the price will be stable,
10:08until it's close to Eid al-Fitr.
10:10Well, when it's Eid al-Fitr,
10:12the price will definitely go up again.
10:14Okay.
10:15Then when it's Eid al-Fitr, it goes down.
10:17Well, of course,
10:19this pattern is a bit different from the year pattern.
10:22The year pattern depends on the commodities.
10:25So later, for example, red onions,
10:27the trend will continue to go up,
10:29even though when it's Eid al-Fitr, it will continue to go up.
10:31That's what needs to be anticipated.
10:32Then, even though now chicken meat, for example,
10:35and chicken eggs, the trend has gone down a bit,
10:38after it went up yesterday,
10:40then it will be stable,
10:42but it will continue to go up,
10:44until around June, July,
10:47usually they will continue to go up.
10:49So that's what needs to be anticipated,
10:51the price, especially because of the year pattern.
10:54Okay.
10:55If it's Eid al-Fitr, Ramadhan,
10:57it will definitely go up.
10:59That's what I said earlier.
11:00Okay.
11:01It will go up before fasting,
11:03then it will go down,
11:04then it will go up again before Eid al-Fitr,
11:05then it will go down again.
11:06We will ask Mr. Tarto about it later.
11:08But in the next segment,
11:09we will take a break for a moment,
11:11and we will be back in a moment.
11:21EID AL-FITR
11:23EID AL-FITR
11:25EID AL-FITR
11:27EID AL-FITR
11:29EID AL-FITR
11:31Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
11:33We will continue our discussion with Mr. Suta Tualimoso,
11:36the General Director of the Indonesian Rice and Rice Grocery Group.
11:40Then there is Prof. Dwi Andreas Santosa,
11:43the Senior Professor at the Ministry of Public Works,
11:44and also the General Director of AB2TI.
11:46Okay.
11:47Mr. Tarto,
11:48as mentioned earlier,
11:49if you look at the momentum of Ramadan,
11:51then Eid,
11:52there is a horse-riding pattern,
11:54as mentioned by Prof. Dwi earlier.
11:56Actually, if you experience it for real,
11:58in the field,
11:59from the businessman,
12:00from the producer himself,
12:02how about the demand for rice
12:04since the beginning of the year,
12:05then in the momentum of Ramadan this time,
12:08is the trend rising,
12:10then the price also experienced an increase,
12:12or can it still be maintained like that,
12:15or stable, Mr. Suta Tarto?
12:17Yes, thank you.
12:19So it's like this,
12:21the rice demand pattern,
12:24it's like what Prof. Andreas said,
12:29indeed there will be an increase,
12:33first, at the beginning of the month,
12:36always.
12:37The second,
12:39at the time of Eid,
12:41especially Ramadan,
12:43it will usually increase.
12:45How much will it increase?
12:47Actually, maybe in total,
12:49maybe not too far,
12:52but there will be an increase.
12:57Then, of course,
13:02how is the preparation on the ground?
13:06Actually, this year,
13:08we don't have to worry,
13:12because we are heading towards Eid.
13:18If we are heading towards Eid,
13:21what does it mean?
13:23This supply will still be more.
13:29So that's the first thing.
13:32Then the question is,
13:34is there an increase in the price and so on?
13:39This is also related to the government policy.
13:44In February last year,
13:47the government issued a policy
13:50on the increase in GDP.
13:52So with the increase in GDP,
13:56the purchase of rice on the ground will automatically increase,
14:01and that benefits the farmers.
14:04Of course, there will be a new price balance
14:08on the ground,
14:10whereas the purchase is with a different GDP.
14:16Previously, the GDP was Rp6,000,
14:18now it's Rp1,500.
14:20Automatically, there will be a slight price increase on the ground.
14:26So the government policy will also affect the price movement.
14:33The other government policies,
14:35of course, are related to the supply from the government itself.
14:42Usually, there is a market operation and so on.
14:46Maybe a market operation or food aid will also be affected.
14:51I think so.
14:52Okay, but if we look at the existing conditions,
14:55the government's guarantee for food supplies
14:59is indeed true.
15:01There is nothing to worry about, Mr. Tarto.
15:04Maybe there will be a holiday,
15:07where there will be a lot of people going out.
15:10Then the need for food will increase,
15:13not only in big cities, but also in the region.
15:16Yes, if we look at the current situation,
15:21the government also has a large stock.
15:24Okay.
15:25Compared to last year's large imports,
15:27the stock is still quite strong.
15:29Secondly, now it's heading towards harvest.
15:32Okay.
15:33So we don't have to worry.
15:35Why?
15:36Because even on the ground now,
15:40the demands can still be met
15:44by business actors in the field of rice itself.
15:51Okay.
15:52So the point is, I think it's there.
15:55Okay, Mr. Tarto.
15:56The problem with the current extreme weather,
15:59as explained by Prof. Dwi,
16:01is it a challenge in itself?
16:03Because there are some rice plants
16:07that are flooded.
16:10Yes.
16:11The biggest challenge,
16:13if we all know that
16:16in Indonesia,
16:18most of them are small-scale rice growers.
16:21Small-scale rice growers
16:23generally do not have a drying machine.
16:29What they have is a dryer,
16:35like a field,
16:37so it means it's open.
16:39So if the rainy season,
16:41when we harvest,
16:43it's a rainy season,
16:45the problem is
16:48we are slow in drying.
16:52It will be slower.
16:54This is what we have to solve in the future,
16:58in a good way,
17:00so that small-scale rice growers
17:03also have equipment for drying machines.
17:09I think this is very important.
17:10Okay, Mr. Tarto.
17:11Prof. Dwi,
17:12if we talk about the distribution factor
17:14as one of the crucial factors
17:16in the food industry in Ramadan and Ramadan,
17:18how is it, Prof. Dwi?
17:21If it's distribution,
17:23almost every year it's like that.
17:26Distribution is closely related
17:28to the existing infrastructure.
17:30So we just assume
17:32that everything is in the same condition
17:35as last year.
17:37So it's easier for us to predict.
17:40Regarding rice,
17:41as Mr. Tarto said,
17:43there is no problem.
17:45And I totally agree.
17:47Even if we look at the trend,
17:49when I told you about horse manure,
17:52horse manure doesn't work for rice.
17:55So the price of rice
17:57a week before fasting
18:00actually went down,
18:01even though it went down a little.
18:02And this is very closely related,
18:04it has already formed
18:05because it enters the harvest season.
18:07Then now,
18:10the price of rice,
18:11if we look at various sites,
18:13it's stable.
18:14It's been stable for a week.
18:16So there is no need
18:18to worry about rice.
18:20And it's also true,
18:21earlier about rice,
18:23our stock is very high.
18:25Our stock,
18:26last year we imported rice,
18:28the total,
18:29this is the latest data,
18:31the total is 4.5 million tons.
18:33And it increases the national rice stock.
18:36If we talk about national rice stock,
18:38it's rice stock held by the government,
18:40traders, farmers, and so on.
18:43It jumped from 4.1 million tons,
18:46that's the result of the survey
18:47by BAPANAS and BPS
18:49at the end of 2023,
18:51which became the initial stock in 2024.
18:53That's 4.1 million tons.
18:55While at the beginning of 2025,
18:58my estimate jumped to 7.8 million tons.
19:01Although the national rice stock
19:03counts up to 8.15 million tons,
19:06but my estimate is around 7.8 million tons.
19:09Now, if we look at stability,
19:12measuring whether a commodity
19:14has a stable price or not,
19:16we can see it from the stock-to-use ratio.
19:19The stock-to-use ratio at the beginning of 2024
19:23is only 13.3%.
19:25That's the stock-to-use ratio at the beginning of 2024.
19:28Why in 2024,
19:30there is still a price gap?
19:32We even have to import
19:34the largest amount
19:36in the last 25 years,
19:384.5 million tons.
19:41Then in 2025,
19:43the stock-to-use ratio
19:45jumped above 20, 25.0%.
19:50And the stock-to-use ratio criteria,
19:52whether a commodity is stable or not,
19:55the stock-to-use ratio is more than 20%
19:58at the beginning of the year.
19:59So, for that reason,
20:01rice is very safe,
20:02and the government definitely doesn't need to import rice
20:05this year.
20:08Because according to our calculations,
20:10the production will also increase.
20:12And the increase in production in 2025
20:15is estimated to be between 3-4%.
20:17Or contribute about 1-1.5 million tons of rice.
20:21So, it's safe.
20:23Safe and peaceful.
20:24The people don't need to worry about rice.
20:26Regarding the distribution,
20:28as I said earlier,
20:29we view distribution
20:31just like last year.
20:33Distribution is very influenced
20:35by the road situation,
20:37the people, and so on.
20:38Then natural disasters.
20:39But it's relatively small.
20:41Okay.
20:42So, from the assurance side,
20:44it's already one way.
20:46If we look at it from the perspective of Prof. Dewi,
20:49it's already well-prepared.
20:52So, there won't be any shortage
20:54of food needs,
20:56especially rice, in the community.
20:58Prof. Dewi.
21:00Rice, bro.
21:01I'm sorry.
21:02Rice, bro.
21:03Not the others.
21:04But I've mentioned the others.
21:05Right.
21:06Hopefully, this won't be a problem
21:08when Eid comes around
21:10in 2020.
21:12Prof. Dewi,
21:13thank you for your time, sharing,
21:14and the updates you've shared.
21:16Mr. Setarto,
21:17thank you for the information updates
21:18given to the audience today.
21:20Good luck with your activities.
21:22Stay healthy.
21:23See you again.
21:25Prof. Dewi, Mr. Setarto.
21:26Stay healthy, Mr. Bras.
21:27See you again.
21:29Okay, audience.
21:30It's been an hour
21:31I've accompanied you in Market Review.
21:33Keep sharing your information
21:34only on IDX Channel,
21:35your task force,
21:36and Comprehensive Investment Reference.
21:38Because the future must move forward,
21:40I am an stock investor.
21:42I am Prasetyo Wibowo,
21:44along with all the workers
21:45on duty.
21:46I bid you farewell.
21:48See you again.