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00:00The following is a short video clip of the interview with Mr. Ken Saito, the former Minister of Economy and Industry.
00:11Good morning.
00:12Good morning.
00:13We are live on the news at Nikkei Sata on February 8.
00:16Now, let me introduce our guest for today.
00:20This is Ken Saito, the former Minister of Economy and Industry.
00:24Good morning.
00:25Good morning.
00:27Next, we have Mr. Tetsuo Kotani, a professor at Meikai University who specializes in international relations.
00:33Good morning.
00:34Good morning.
00:36This is Mr. Naoya Yoshino, the head of the International News Center for Japanese Economy, which has been covering American politics for many years.
00:42Good morning.
00:43Good morning.
00:44Good morning.
00:46Today, we will be talking with these three people, and we will also be interviewing them.
00:50Now, let's take a look at the video clip.
00:54This is the first interview after his inauguration.
01:00Mr. Yamakawa.
01:01Today, I would like to thoroughly analyze this video clip and see if it was successful or not.
01:10As I wrote below, it seems that Mr. Ishiba learned a lot from Mr. Kishida, Mr. Aso, and Mr. Son of SoftBank.
01:23Today, I would like to see if the video clip was successful or not.
01:32Now, I would like to turn to Mr. Ishiba.
01:34This is the first time that he has had a meeting with President Trump.
01:38I would like to ask Mr. Hirohito Nakamura, Director of the Washington Post, what kind of meeting it was.
01:45Mr. Nakamura.
01:49I heard from several Japanese government officials that the meeting between Mr. Ishiba and President Trump was a very atmospheric meeting.
01:59At the beginning of the meeting, Mr. Ishiba sat down deep in his chair and looked a little nervous at President Trump, who was as relaxed as ever.
02:11At the beginning of the meeting, Mr. Ishiba touched on Mr. Abe, who had a good relationship with President Trump.
02:17He emphasized that Japan and the United States of America have a very close relationship, and that he would like to work together to make the world a more peaceful place.
02:26In addition, he studied the construction of factories in the United States by Toyota and Isuzu, which are the largest automakers in the world,
02:32and stated that Japan's anti-U.S. investment is the number one in the world for five consecutive years, and that he would like to extend it further.
02:39In the past, Mr. Ishiba talked about President Abe, who was a political enemy, and Mr. Ishiba touched on the anti-U.S. investment that President Trump liked.
02:46Mr. Ishiba said that he wanted to advance the relationship with President Trump with that hand and this hand.
02:53Mr. Nakamura, the joint meeting was over through the whole thing.
02:59Mr. Ishiba, is it okay to assume that you didn't throw the high ball that Mr. Trump was worried about in advance?
03:09Yes, President Trump said that he wanted to make this equal by studying the trade scourge against Japan.
03:19In addition, President Trump said that if the resolution of the trade scourge against Japan did not take effect,
03:25he would have to continue to be wary of how President Trump will continue to appear in the future.
03:49That's all for now.
03:53We will hear more from Mr. Nakamura later.
03:56Mr. Saito, I would like to ask you one by one.
04:00First of all, what is your overall impression?
04:03I think that the content that should be incorporated, including security guarantees and the economy, has been almost incorporated,
04:14so I think that there has been enough results in terms of content.
04:18In addition, I had the impression that President Trump was very careful about Prime Minister Ishiba,
04:27so I thought it was a real surprise.
04:34Mr. Abe also said a lot about Mr. Ishiba.
04:40Even at the joint press conference, I felt like I should ask more questions about Mr. Ishiba,
04:47and I felt that he was very popular overall.
04:50This was really a surprise.
04:52I thought that the relationship between Japan and the United States was important and there was a certain degree of it,
04:59but I had a very strong impression that he was lifting Prime Minister Ishiba up to this point,
05:05so this was a surprise to me.
05:08Mr. Saito, what do you think?
05:10I think it was a success as a face-to-face meeting.
05:16However, the overall policy of the Trump administration has not yet been decided,
05:22so it is possible that various orders will be placed on Japan after this,
05:26so I think that we should not be at ease with this.
05:30However, during the joint press conference, Mr. Trump strongly responded to Mr. Ishiba's statement,
05:39and after Mr. Trump made a statement on Japan's interests,
05:44when the press asked Mr. Ishiba if he would impose retaliatory tariffs on Japan,
05:50he responded that he could not answer his family's questions.
05:54At that time, Mr. Trump showed a very welcoming attitude.
05:59In addition, Mr. Ishiba's reaction was good even in the Trump administration,
06:04and it seems that he has been evaluated as a person who can respond flexibly,
06:10so I think that Mr. Ishiba's evaluation has risen even in the Trump administration.
06:16He even said that he could not answer his family's questions and that it was normal in the National Assembly,
06:22and the reporters laughed a lot.
06:26In the United States, it was not a general start, so it was a new start.
06:32Mr. Yoshino, what do you think?
06:34I agree with both of you.
06:36What impressed me was that Mr. Trump used to say the word Prime Minister,
06:43but for the first time, as far as I know, he said the word Ishiba.
06:48I could see that he was well-prepared.
06:52Another thing is that Mr. Trump and Mr. Ishiba had very low expectations.
07:04If you open the lid,
07:06it's not a story that specializes in the standards of the usual Japan-U.S. trade talks,
07:13but for both of them, the current situation led to their evaluation.
07:18It's like saying that they will continue their policies across the board.
07:24For example, foreign exchange security guarantees.
07:27In fact, their expectations were low,
07:30so I think that their evaluation led to their evaluation just by acknowledging the usual things.
07:37When you look at it from the perspective of the people,
07:40is it okay to have low expectations?
07:43That's right.
07:44When I was interviewing Mr. Ishiba,
07:47there was a comparison with Mr. Abe,
07:49so I wondered if it was really okay.
07:51I thought it would be annoying to talk about such a Japanese-style parliamentary debate for a long time.
07:56There are various reasons.
07:57I think there were people who intentionally lowered expectations and people who really thought so.
08:03As a result, they were able to do it normally.
08:06The same goes for Mr. Trump.
08:09I think he was a bit of a strategist.
08:13After the commercial break, let's take a look at what Mr. Ishiba said at the joint press conference.
08:22This time, we will analyze the contents of the Japan-U.S. trade talks.
08:28The first theme is whether the talks were successful.
08:33This time, the talks were a one-night-three-day event during the National Assembly.
08:39The first of the talks was a small number of people.
08:43After that, we had a working lunch while eating for over an hour.
08:48After that, we went to the joint press conference.
08:51First, please look at that video.
08:54It's a great honor to have you. Thank you very much.
08:58Japan and the United States of America are now in a very close relationship.
09:04It's all because of the first Trump administration.
09:11Prime Minister Abe, who is no longer with President Obama.
09:16The two of them made me realize that.
09:20Shinzo was a great friend of mine.
09:24I was so sad. I couldn't have felt worse when that happened to him.
09:29Shinzo had tremendous regard for you.
09:32And I know that you were a good friend of his, too.
09:35Mr. President, are tariffs an option if the deficit doesn't get to equilibrium or to equality?
09:40Yes, they are, President.
09:50The military cooperation between the United States and Japan is one of our closest security partnerships.
09:56And it's one of the closest we have anywhere in the world.
10:00Japan is committed to double its defense spending by 2027.
10:05Because of my first term, we worked on that very hard with Shinzo.
10:09You know the great Shinzo Abe.
10:12And we look forward to seeing even more so.
10:16And I'm pleased to say that this week my administration approved nearly a billion dollars in foreign military sales to Tokyo.
10:25We agreed to cooperate even more closely to combat the Chinese economic aggression, which is quite aggressive.
10:33I'm also pleased to announce that Japan will soon begin importing historic new shipments of clean American liquefied natural gas in record numbers.
10:43It'll be record numbers.
10:45Chronic trade deficits not only undermine our economy, they really do.
10:51And we're going to get rid of the trade.
10:53We have a trade deficit with Japan of over $100 billion.
10:56But we're going to work that out.
10:58And I think very quickly, frankly, we can do it just on oil and gas.
11:02The idea of U.S. Steel is a very important company to us.
11:06We didn't want to see that leave.
11:08They've agreed to invest heavily in U.S. Steel as opposed to own it.
11:32That's why we agreed to work together.
11:38And when it comes to the issue of tariffs, it's something that should be set in such a way as to benefit each other.
11:50It should not only benefit the United States, but also benefit Japan.
11:58How did you feel when you first heard about President Trump?
12:03When I saw him on TV, I didn't have the impression that he was a scary person with a strong personality.
12:15But when I actually met him, I felt that he was a very sincere member of the United Nations and a man with a strong sense of duty to the world.
12:31Mr. Prime Minister, the President's affinity for tariffs is well known.
12:36If the U.S. places tariffs on Japanese imports, would Japan retaliate?
12:41We will not retaliate.
12:44That's the standard Japanese answer.
12:51That's a very good answer.
12:54Very good answer. Wow.
12:57That's very good. He knows what he's doing.
13:01We have summarized the main points of the joint press conference.
13:05On the issue of Japanese steel and U.S. steel imports, Mr. Ishiba strongly recognizes that they must have a unilateral relationship in order to benefit each other.
13:14President Trump is in favor of multilateral investment, not imports.
13:19And on the issue of tariffs, Mr. Ishiba says that it should be set in such a way as to benefit each other.
13:25President Trump says that mutual tariffs are a fair way to do it.
13:29And on the issue of security cooperation, Mr. Ishiba confirms that Japan and the U.S. should apply the Security Treaty 5.
13:37President Trump says that we should use our power to protect our allies.
13:41On the issue of economic cooperation, Mr. Ishiba said that he would like to increase the import of U.S. LNG and raise the U.S. investment by $1 trillion, etc.
13:51Mr. Saito, where should we pay attention to?
13:56What we were most worried about was that there might be some things that we had to agree on in the first place that would be overturned on a capital-based basis.
14:07President Trump often does things that are different from what his administration has accumulated, so we were most worried about that.
14:16But there was hardly any of that.
14:20I think that we were able to make a proper agreement in the field of economic and security cooperation.
14:33Mr. Kotani.
14:35Well, from the Trump administration in advance, we said that we were not going to make a fuss about trade or defense issues at this summit.
14:49What the Trump administration wanted most was an agreement on a medium-range strategy with Japan.
14:56I think that was exactly what happened at the joint summit and the joint statement.
15:02I think that the U.S. side also felt that they were able to reach an agreement with Japan sufficiently.
15:08Of course, I think that at the stage of actually implementing it, different ideas will come out, but I think that needs to be managed well in the future.
15:18I'll go into more detail about the security guarantees later, but the phrase China was included in the agreement, right?
15:26In advance, there was an observation that it would be lost, but the U.S. side was also particular about that.
15:34Well, the U.S. side's medium-range strategy was the pillar this time, so I don't think that the U.S. side did anything to remove the word China.
15:44It's not just about security guarantees, it's about economic security guarantees, including technology.
15:51China was also included in the agreement, so I think it was about discussing that and deepening cooperation in the future.
16:00Yoshino, where did you pay attention to?
16:02Well, I think the keyword of this summit was continuation.
16:08The so-called foreign security guarantees and the economy are the same, but for the time being, can we continue with Japan's defense and China's problems?
16:16In other words, there are things that the U.S. and Japan have accumulated.
16:21It's the same with the nuclear issue, and this is Taiwan.
16:24China's problem is the Taiwan Strait issue, and I think it's okay to train on it.
16:30I think it's natural that this part of the statement was clearly and vividly incorporated, but I think it has a lot of meaning.
16:39Let's go back to Washington.
16:41Yes, I'd like to ask Director Nakamura of the Washington Bureau, who participated in the joint meeting of the Nishibe Summit.
16:47Mr. Nakamura, what was the atmosphere of the meeting like?
16:52Yes, at the summit, President Trump made a deal with Prime Minister Ishiba.
17:04I was wondering if Trump would appear at the meeting, but it was done in a peaceful mood.
17:13First of all, what President Trump handed over to Prime Minister Ishiba at the beginning of the meeting was a photo taken by the two of them in the White House and a photo book using his own photo as a cover.
17:26In addition, Trump said,
17:28It would have been nice if I was as handsome as Prime Minister Ishiba, but I also saw a scene where he joked that he wasn't.
17:35The reason why President Trump was in a good mood so far was that Prime Minister Ishiba announced that he would expand the US investment in Japanese companies to $1 trillion, or about 151 trillion yen.
17:47Prime Minister Ishiba also announced that he would buy American LNG and liquefied natural gas.
17:54He said that the interest rate of Japanese companies' US investment is increasing, and he appealed that Japan will contribute to the expansion of employment and economic growth in the United States.
18:04I'm curious about how the American side is conveying this, but is there any information in it?
18:11Yes, the American media also shows the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Ishiba.
18:20The American political site Politico says that President Trump is building a friendly relationship with a new leader in Japan.
18:29Other American media also say that Prime Minister Ishiba wants to improve his political position in Japan by grasping the heart of President Trump.
18:39For Prime Minister Ishiba, who said that he took precautious measures against President Trump, it was a good step forward for the construction of a new relationship between Japan and the United States.
18:51Thank you, Mr. Nakamura.
18:53Mr. Saito, the American side is also conveying it in an effective way without any harsh arguments. What do you think?
19:00Before President Trump took office, there was a close relationship between President Trump and the leaders of other countries.
19:10It's pretty intense, isn't it?
19:13That wasn't the case for Mr. Ishiba.
19:18I think the American media, which is looking at various steps, has a strong impression that it was a good start.
19:30As I said at the beginning, in that sense, it was a surprise for me to get this far.
19:38What do you think about the background of the surprise and how Trump acted at this time?
19:44I think it's important, and I'm sure he's thinking strategically.
19:50We need to analyze what that is. I don't think it's just good or bad.
19:59I can think of a lot of things.
20:01As I said earlier, there was a relationship with China.
20:04What I was worried about was that some of the Trump supporters in the United States, like Rubio, the Secretary of State,
20:12Some of them are anti-China, like Elon Musk.
20:17Some of them focus on business.
20:20Trump suddenly allowed TikTok.
20:24And then there's DeepSeek, which is a bit of a concern.
20:29I was wondering how far he was thinking about China.
20:41That's the strategy of Rubio.
20:45Rubio is strong in this joint statement.
20:51So when I think about it, I think it's important for Japan.
21:00Mr. Kotani, what about that?
21:02Mr. Kotani said earlier that he was most interested in what would happen to China.
21:06The U.S. side was also interested.
21:10In the end, how do you think this was put together?
21:15For the Trump administration, competition with China is the most important issue.
21:24Of course, there are differences in positions within the administration.
21:28But overall, it's the most important issue.
21:31Japan's position is one of the most important allies in the middle of competition.
21:38This is also shared.
21:40It's also the image of Japan that Prime Minister Abe planted on President Trump.
21:46I think there was a joint statement on the extension of that.
21:51There was a reaction from the American media earlier.
21:54The most important thing is that he's more of an influencer than the mainstream media in the U.S.
22:01Unlike Elon Musk, there are influencers like Charlie Kirk, who has millions of followers.
22:08He goes to the White House on a daily basis.
22:11He's the one who's putting the purchase of Greenland on Trump.
22:16If you look at Charlie Kirk's post earlier,
22:20he's very highly esteemed in Japan.
22:23Especially when it comes to increasing investment.
22:26In that sense, I think it was a success in the sense that Japan was unable to pay attention to the Trump administration.
22:37After the commercial break, we'll talk about the economy and the economy that was discussed at the summit.
22:51I'm going to talk about the Japan-U.S. Sino-U.S. Summit.
22:54Here's the second part.
22:56I'm going to talk about the economy, tariffs, and U.S. steel.
23:01First, I'll talk about the main points related to the economy.
23:05It's about raising the U.S. dollar by $1 trillion, or $1.5 trillion.
23:11And about the U.S. steel issue, it's not about buying, it's about investing.
23:16About energy and safety insurance, it's about buying LNG.
23:20And about oil and natural gas business in Alaska, it's about the U.S.-Japan trade agreement.
23:27In addition to that, it's about cooperation in important technology development.
23:31And about supply chain, strengthening, diversification.
23:34And finally, about nuclear power plants.
23:36There were various issues discussed.
23:39Mr. Yamakawa.
23:40I'm curious about a few things.
23:42First of all, I was very interested in the U.S. steel statement.
23:45Let's take a look at the U.S. steel statement.
23:49Yes.
23:50About U.S. steel.
23:52Here.
23:53U.S. President Donald Trump issued an order to cancel the U.S. steel procurement plan.
23:58He was opposed to the sale of U.S. steel.
24:00Excuse me.
24:01He was opposed to the sale of U.S. steel.
24:06He was opposed to the sale of U.S. steel.
24:08He was opposed to the sale of U.S. steel.
24:12However, U.S. steel CEO Britt and White House held a meeting on June 6th.
24:18It was agreed that Japan and the U.S. should invest in U.S. steel instead of buying it.
24:24It's hard to explain.
24:26Mr. Kotani.
24:27The word investment has changed.
24:29Until now, Japan Steel was proposing to buy U.S. steel.
24:36It's not buying, it's investing.
24:38What does investment mean?
24:40Does it mean investing in equipment?
24:43I'm not sure about that.
24:45How should I interpret this?
24:47It's not just investing in equipment.
24:50It's investing in the whole.
24:53In other words, it's not buying U.S. steel.
24:57That's the main point.
24:59Japan Steel was proposing to buy U.S. steel.
25:04For example, half of the U.S. steel was going to be sold to the U.S.
25:09and the U.S. government was going to ban the production of U.S. steel.
25:14I think it was almost like an investment.
25:18I think the Japanese government wanted to accept the reality.
25:24However, I heard that Japan Steel and the Japanese government didn't agree on this.
25:30Is that so?
25:31I think Japan Steel's executive will meet with Trump and finalize the decision.
25:36But the U.S. steel's CEO has already met with Trump.
25:39So, of course, the information is in Japan Steel's hands.
25:43Yes.
25:44On January 6, Trump tweeted that he was against the deal.
25:50At this point, Trump didn't know the details of the deal.
25:55He said he was against the deal because Japanese companies were trying to buy U.S. steel.
26:01However, after hearing the details from the U.S. steel's CEO,
26:06he understood what was going on and agreed to the deal.
26:10Mr. Saito, I'm sure you're very interested in Japan Steel.
26:15Yes, I was involved in the Biden administration.
26:19Do you think Japan Steel has come to a pretty mild direction?
26:25We'll have to wait and see.
26:28But I thought it would be a message to meet with the U.S. steel's CEO in front of the summit.
26:42And I was told this during the summit.
26:48What I was most worried about was that if I was told no at this summit,
26:55it would really be over.
26:57It would be a disaster.
26:58So I think we're in a situation where we can continue to discuss calmly.
27:04But he's a deal maker.
27:06Yes.
27:07So we'll have to keep an eye on it.
27:10Now, let's talk about direct investment.
27:13You mentioned $1 trillion.
27:15Let's talk about the current situation.
27:19Yes.
27:20The total amount of direct investment in the U.S. has been around 5 years in a row until 2023.
27:26In recent years, Canada and Germany have been catching up.
27:30Prime Minister Ishiba said in a joint meeting that direct investment in the U.S.
27:34will be raised to $1 trillion.
27:37Now, let's talk about trade.
27:40Yes.
27:41Let's talk about last year's trade deficit announced by the U.S. Secretary of State on the 5th.
27:45It's about $185 trillion, the largest in the past.
27:49No. 1 is China, followed by the EU and Mexico.
27:53Japan is the 7th largest country by region.
27:57At the summit, President Trump said reducing the deficit was one of the options.
28:04In terms of this trade deficit,
28:07President Trump said it was roughly $1 trillion.
28:11Let's look at direct investment again.
28:14There are a lot of misleadings in the world.
28:19Japan is not No. 1 in terms of investment over the past 5 years.
28:23Direct investment has been the highest in the past 5 years.
28:30In recent years, Canada and Germany have increased their investment
28:35and the gap has narrowed.
28:38Prime Minister Ishiba said Japan will raise the deficit to $1 trillion.
28:47He said he would raise the deficit to about $2 trillion.
28:54Mr. Yoshino, do you like the $1 trillion?
29:01I'm a member of the Senate, so I don't usually go into such a debate.
29:06It's the same with Trump's $1 trillion.
29:08It's a very heated debate.
29:10$1 trillion, the U.S. trade issue.
29:13It's a topic that members of the Senate talk about.
29:15It's never been discussed before.
29:17There was a debate about Toyota and Isuzu.
29:20This is clearly a Trump measure.
29:23The Trump administration has to go so far as to discuss individual, academic, and corporate names.
29:31This is what happened with the Trump 1.0.
29:35Where are the 50 Japanese companies in the U.S.?
29:39How much employment do they have?
29:41How much investment do they make?
29:43That's probably what they're talking about.
29:46I think that's why there was such a large-scale press conference.
29:53Mr. Saito, do you think this is a good thing?
29:58I think so.
30:00They've been preparing for a long time.
30:02This is just the amount of investment.
30:04Japanese companies have contributed to employment of 2 million people.
30:07And then there's the dividends from Japanese companies.
30:11This is higher than other major U.S. companies.
30:18I don't know how far they've gone.
30:21For example, in the United States, there are 10 million automobiles.
30:25In fact, 3.3 million of them are made by Japanese companies.
30:31In addition, 2.3 million people are employed there, including indirect employees.
30:36That's what I'm talking about.
30:38There's cooperation at the forefront.
30:42In fact, in the manufacturing industry, Japanese-American cooperation is very strong.
30:47Please pay attention to that, too.
30:49And in that flow, I think the U.S. steel industry should think about it.
30:53Japanese-American cooperation in the manufacturing industry.
30:57I personally think that kind of message is important.
31:01I think it's important for Japan and the U.S. to cooperate in the manufacturing industry, not individually.
31:11I think it was a good result, regardless of how it was said.
31:19On the other hand, there was talk of an LNG project to improve trade.
31:26Mr. Kotani, it seems that you have studied the Alaska project in detail.
31:32What do you think about it?
31:34President Trump has issued an order to promote energy development in Alaska.
31:43Japan and the U.S. are cooperating in the manufacturing industry.
31:49However, it is a region with very strict weather conditions.
31:54It's physically and technically difficult.
31:57You have to build a pipeline for a long time.
32:00There is talk of paying a cost.
32:03I think there may be aspects where we have to pay back the budget.
32:09However, when building a pipeline under strict weather conditions,
32:14Japanese steel technology can be used.
32:18I think it may be an opportunity to deepen cooperation in Japan and the U.S. overall.
32:25Mr. Saito, energy is important here.
32:28Originally, I thought that energy would be the theme.
32:31It's not a minus for Japan.
32:33I would like to say a word about the trade deficit.
32:36It's a deficit in terms of trade, but it's a digital deficit.
32:40Japan has a huge deficit in paying for its digital companies.
32:44Japan has a deficit of $400 billion in the world.
32:47Most of them are American companies.
32:49Japan is in the black with those companies.
32:52However, Japan has a huge deficit in the digital world due to its relationship with the U.S.
32:57I personally think that President Trump should be more convinced of that.
33:04I don't know how it will be done.
33:06I think we need an approach to get more attention to that.
33:10He says that the digital deficit in the shape-shifting industry is paying a lot.
33:14It's not just about things.
33:16However, Mr. Trump is in the manufacturing industry.
33:19I don't know how far he will go.
33:21However, I think we should discuss that.
33:23And another point.
33:25The most attention was paid to the completion.
33:28There was no concrete study this time.
33:33However, there was a statement that they will announce a comprehensive compensation next week.
33:44Mr. Kotani, what do you mean by a comprehensive compensation?
33:51A comprehensive compensation is a compensation that other countries pay to the U.S.
34:00It's the same as that.
34:03I think that's why they want to get rid of the trade deficit.
34:09However, Japan is still on that list.
34:12I just confirmed that.
34:14But if the Japanese side is paying, it's mainly agricultural products.
34:18I think it's mainly agricultural products.
34:20I don't think it's targeting Japan.
34:23I think it's a part of the flow of the world.
34:28Is it different from the 10% compensation for the world?
34:33It's different.
34:34It's different.
34:36We'll probably talk about that after July.
34:39At least Japan is still on the list for a comprehensive compensation.
34:43I think the decision will be made at the end of this weekend whether Mr. Trump will eventually remove Japan from the list.
34:51Mr. Yoshino, what do you think about this compensation?
34:54Mr. Trump's message is that he won't make an exception.
34:58It's not that he's targeting Japan.
35:01I think there's an advantage in not making an exception.
35:05So I think it's up to us to decide how things will go for each individual.
35:13After the briefing, let's take a closer look at what will happen to security guarantees.
35:20We've looked at the economy and health.
35:23Now, let's look at the third point, security guarantees and China's response to North Korea.
35:29First, here are the main points on security guarantees.
35:34Japan will adopt the Fifth Amendment to the UN Security Treaty on the Pre-war Islands, which includes all means to commit to Japan's defense.
35:42In addition, Japan welcomes the commitment to the Self-Defense Force, the US military, and defense spending to strengthen its defense capabilities even after 2027.
35:54And cyber space.
35:56We also talked about the Indo-Pacific, China, and North Korea.
36:01We also talked about 2 plus 2.
36:05Mr. Saito, at the beginning of the briefing, you said that almost everything you wanted was included.
36:11Could you repeat that?
36:13For example, Japan will adopt the Fifth Amendment to the UN Security Treaty on the Pre-war Islands.
36:19I thought it would be a big deal if it wasn't included.
36:22I thought it would be a big deal if it wasn't included.
36:26And I thought it would be a big deal if I was told to increase the defense spending even more.
36:31I had that kind of concern.
36:34But it was all well and good.
36:38So I felt like it was a surprise that there was no surprise.
36:45There was a fear of a one-on-one battle.
36:50But it's not like that.
36:52I was relieved to hear that there was a consensus in a well-structured discussion.
36:59Mr. Kotani, the Indo-Pacific, the Quad,
37:03I think Trump is thinking more about doing it one-on-one, not multiple-axis.
37:10I had the impression that he was going to destroy what the Biden administration had built up.
37:17I had the impression that he was going to destroy what the Biden administration had built up.
37:22What should we look at here?
37:24For example, regarding the Quad, the Trump administration is reviving it for the first time.
37:29We couldn't have a meeting of that level.
37:32But the Trump administration is aware that the Quad was built by itself.
37:37That's why we're looking at it again this time.
37:40As for the Indo-Pacific, we called for an improvement in our relationship with Japan.
37:45That's why it came true during the Biden administration.
37:49We have the ownership, so the Indo-Pacific is OK.
37:53The same goes for the Indo-Pacific.
37:56We've deepened our cooperation with the Philippines.
37:59That's why it came true now.
38:01The so-called mini-lateral cooperation between the three or four countries
38:06is a sign that the Trump administration wants to make an effective use of it.
38:12Mr. Yoshino, where do you focus on in terms of security guarantees?
38:15Yes, if you think about it as a whole,
38:18the plan is that the U.S. will show interest in Trump in terms of the economy
38:24and go to the base for foreign security guarantees.
38:27That's the plan, and I think it's a success.
38:33As Mr. Saito said, individual matters have been confirmed by all governments.
38:42But when you can't confirm what needs to be confirmed,
38:45it's a big burden.
38:47So you can't get carried away.
38:50As they say, there's no failure on the main stage.
38:54This is the most important thing.
38:56I think we've achieved the most important thing.
38:59What I was particularly worried about was the increase in defense spending.
39:04This has changed a lot of Japanese security policies.
39:09As you can see here in the graph,
39:12it's at a good stage in 2025.
39:20It's scheduled to reach 2% GDP by the end of the year.
39:26This time, it's included in the Joint Declaration,
39:30but there is a phrase that it will strengthen defense spending even after 2027.
39:38However, there are no specific numbers or percentages.
39:44Mr. Kotani, there are some numbers in this area,
39:50but if there are no numbers, is that what you mean?
39:53As a member of the Trump administration,
39:55I was the first to strengthen security relations with Japan,
39:59so I think it's a welcome expression
40:03because it's recognized that the GDP is now up by 2%.
40:07However, what we have to be careful about is that
40:09even at the first stage, the first stage of defense spending was said to be successful,
40:13but after that, there were more and more demands.
40:15That's right.
40:16The increase in GDP came later,
40:19so if you say that defense spending is good at 2%,
40:23that's not enough.
40:25Now, the national deposit is beginning to be recognized,
40:29but the bottom is still empty.
40:31There are no people doing the details.
40:34But if you gradually understand that the current Japanese procurement plan
40:38is calculated at $1.00,
40:42I think 2% is not enough.
40:45If you say it based on the amount of money, it's much cheaper than it was at the time.
40:49So it's not 2%, it's 2.5%, it's 3%.
40:54It's not strange to be told a few months later, a year later,
40:57so as Japan, we need to review the procurement plan
41:02in line with the reality of this exchange.
41:07Mr. Yoshino, when Mr. Abe was in power,
41:10he was said to be very tight-lipped,
41:12but there were some very strict demands, weren't there?
41:15Well, when I asked the people who were in the House of Representatives
41:18at the time of Trump 1.0,
41:20it was the latter half.
41:22In the latter half, there was also a very strict exchange.
41:25As an overall impression, it was very tight-lipped,
41:29but individually, there were also very strict situations.
41:33And the other thing I want to say is that
41:35the problem is that America has national defense spending.
41:38In this national defense spending,
41:40for example, public school tuition fees in Japan are also included.
41:43So-called inflation.
41:45In other words, defense spending or national defense spending,
41:48this is quite important,
41:50and Japan also has defense spending in the form of national defense spending,
41:53and, for example, if you put public school tuition in it,
41:55it's GDP, and this is extremely technical,
41:58but it's not 2%.
42:00This may be a useful story,
42:02but I think that's going to be important.
42:05That's what I mean.
42:07Let me just say one thing.
42:09At the beginning, I mentioned that
42:11the surprise was that Mr. Ishiba had raised so much.
42:15If you think about it strategically,
42:17maybe it's a temporary thing.
42:21He raised Mr. Ishiba.
42:24Then, as Mr. Kotani said,
42:26he's going to get a lot of money next time.
42:29Maybe he's thinking about how much he's raised.
42:33Anyway, he's a dealer,
42:35and Mr. Trump was born on June 14th.
42:38I was born on June 14th, too.
42:41I don't think I'm such a bad person,
42:44but be careful.
42:46I see.
42:48And then, as I mentioned earlier,
42:51what I'm most curious about is
42:53how the American side sees Mr. Ishiba's stance.
42:57There's always been a lot of interaction with China.
43:02Mr. Ishiba and Foreign Minister Iwaya
43:05seem to be trying to get a balance.
43:08What does the United States think about that?
43:11Mr. Kotani, how should we interpret this statement?
43:17President Trump is basically not interested in other countries.
43:21He's interested in the relationship between the country and the United States.
43:25But he's not interested in what kind of relationship
43:29between the United States and China is going to be.
43:32So I don't think he's going to be directly opposed
43:35to Japan continuing to engage in foreign policy
43:38in the form of a balanced foreign policy.
43:41However, the U.S. and China are now in a strategic competition.
43:45In terms of economic security,
43:47the U.S. wants to coordinate with its allies.
43:51Earlier, there was a story about the strengthening of the supply chain
43:56in the United States and China.
43:59The problem for Japan in the future is that
44:02with the release of DeepSeek,
44:05we know that we can create advanced AI
44:08even with technology that is not cutting-edge.
44:11The U.S. has been protecting cutting-edge technology
44:14with high-end high-fence technology.
44:17There is a possibility that this cutting-edge technology
44:20will expand.
44:22Even if it's not cutting-edge technology,
44:25there is a possibility that the U.S. will say,
44:28let's make it cutting-edge technology.
44:31If that happens, I think it's possible that
44:34it will be difficult for both Japan and Japanese companies.
44:37Mr. Saito, you've been trying to improve your relationship
44:40with China for a long time.
44:43How are you going to proceed?
44:46First of all, this punchline.
44:48I think the U.S. will be angry when it sees this.
44:51I think it's a little misleading.
44:54I think it's a little misleading.
44:57I think it's a little misleading.
45:00In any case, from the point of view of securing
45:03Japan's national security,
45:06I'm going to go abroad.
45:09I don't want to be behind Japan
45:12when Mr. Ishiba goes to the U.S.
45:15I want to do it proudly.
45:19I don't want to be behind anyone.
45:22It doesn't matter how it's perceived in America.
45:25It doesn't matter how it's perceived in America.
45:28I think it's a little different
45:31from pursuing Japan's national security.
45:34As Mr. Kotani mentioned,
45:36Trump might not be bothered about this.
45:39I don't know the prognosis.
45:42But the Asian- connected countries are in dire stress right now.
45:45What will happen in that area?
45:48This figure is very bad.
45:52I will deal with it.
45:54Mr. Yoshino, what do you think?
45:56Well, when Trump was 1.0,
45:59the former Secretary of State for National Security, Mr. Yachi,
46:03often said that the U.S. had not forced Japan into a medium-term policy.
46:08I have heard that this was a kind of surprise.
46:12From my point of view,
46:14I don't think Trump himself cares much about what kind of diplomacy Japan will have with China.
46:20However, as I have repeatedly said,
46:23it is a different matter what he thinks about the immediate future,
46:26so I think we have to be careful about that.
46:29Mr. Gotan, I don't think the U.S. wants to see the relationship improve.
46:37The point is whether Japan will respond to what the U.S. demands in terms of economic security.
46:44That's right.
46:45The U.S. is looking in the same direction on the military ground,
46:48so it may be difficult to secure economic security.
46:52That's all for this week.
46:54Here is an announcement.
46:56This is the only part of the program where you can listen to Fujii Yui,
47:01a network content that digs deeper into topics that were not covered in the program.
47:04It will be broadcast next Tuesday evening.
47:07You can watch the full program by registering as a member of Teletubbies.
47:10This week's guest is Mr. Gotan.
47:12Thank you for joining us.
47:15After the commercial break, we will have market information.
47:23Tomorrow's Nikkei Sunday Salon.
47:25Our guest is President Akira Nagatsuma of the Liberal Democratic Party.
47:28He will talk about Japan's response to next year's budget,
47:31and focus on the summer election.
47:34Please enjoy.
47:35Now for the market information.
47:37Here is the January employment statistics for the U.S. announced last night.
47:42The number of non-agricultural employees is 143,000 more than the month before.
47:50It is below market expectations.
47:52The unemployment rate is 4.0%, improving by 0.1 points.
47:57The average hourly wage was 4.1% higher than a year ago.
48:02On the 7th, the New York Dow fell in the New York stock market.
48:06The January employment statistics were mixed with strong and weak,
48:10but the addition and reduction shifted behind, leading to the stock market selling.
48:14President Trump's observation that he would issue new tariffs has also become a priority.
48:19At the end, it was $44,303, which is $444 cheaper.
48:24Nasdaq, which has a high proportion of high-tech stocks, fell by 268 points,
48:30and fell by 19,523 points.
48:33The New York foreign exchange market's playhouse, Owarine,
48:36fell by 5,000 points, from $1.151.35 to $1.45.
48:41The average daily income in Chicago was 38,375 yen.
48:46It is 400 yen cheaper than the average daily income of Owarine on Friday.
48:51I asked a market official about the stock price at the end of March.
48:55Mr. Kawai of Mitsubishi UFJ E-Smart is expected to sell at 45,000 yen.
49:00Mr. Kawai is expected to sell at 45,000 yen.
49:05Mr. Kawai is expected to sell at 45,000 yen.
49:10Mr. Hiroki of Mannex is expected to sell at 40,000 yen.
49:14Mr. Hiroki is expected to sell at 40,000 yen.
49:19Mr. Hiroki is expected to sell at 40,000 yen.
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