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00:00Live right here on this Thursday on the early line on Sports Grid. It's time to
00:05dive into that early prop perspective for division around weekend with the
00:08best to do it. That would be TV Tom Vecchio of Sports Grid live right here
00:14on TEL. Vecchio as always we appreciate the time. We'll go through all four
00:20division around matchups. How you see these games playing out based on the
00:24numbers and where you think some of those prop edges might be for this
00:27wonderful weekend of football. Of course thanks for having me and some of these
00:31lines have already been moving. You know when I did the recap show on Sunday
00:35night after the commanders win over the Bucs and I was talking about some of the
00:38early lines that I saw no pun intended again second time in a row but some of
00:42the early lines for those players and they've already moved like four or five
00:45six yards in some cases so we have a lot to get to. Yeah we certainly do and
00:50Vecchio let's start with what we all expect to be the best game of the
00:54weekend in Orchard Park it's the Bills and the Ravens basically a pick'em just
00:59a few cents of difference on the money line a total north of 50 at 51 and a
01:05hook. If the numbers do back up what we see in this game and it's close highly
01:11competitive and high scoring what's the best angle to look in the prop market?
01:15Well I don't think it's gonna be high scoring that's that's part of where like
01:19a lot of my my breakdown for the starts where I don't think it's me that has
01:23high scoring it's also gonna be extremely cold so we have to factor in a
01:26little bit of weather may not be a ton of precipitation but it's gonna be
01:29extremely cold I expect the Ravens come away with a win and I think that leads
01:32to a lot of carries for Derrick Henry we have to look at this like what did the
01:35Ravens learn last year from the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs
01:39it's like they strayed away from what they want to do most which is run the
01:43ball and now they have that option with Derrick Henry in the backfield so a I
01:47like Derrick Henry over 19 and a half carries I don't love the yards just
01:51because the yards have moved up moved up from 91 or 92 up to 95 96 but I will
01:56be over on attempts because if you stick with the run game with Derrick Henry
01:59that should be their path to victory and I don't think the Bills will be able to
02:03stop them on the ground that also leads to Lamar under 28 and a half passing
02:07attempts having the ball in his hand in his hands is going against what they
02:10learned from last year they need to stick with what they know best.
02:15I agree with that and I do think it is we have a tendency to have a lower
02:19scoring game in that game two ground games that should get after it fun times
02:22no doubt about it but the first game of the weekend is gonna be between Houston
02:25and Kansas City eight and a half as the line the hometown favorite here Kansas
02:30City Chiefs the total 41 and a half CJ Stroud Patrick Mahomes you always have
02:34that major advantage time coming off the bye when the other team had to play in
02:37the previous weeks what are you getting out of this game prop wise and maybe
02:40sidewise as well? So you know the one of the take I had was like the Chiefs win
02:45they probably don't cover they'll cover an in-game number if the Texans do get
02:48out to leave and I actually wouldn't be surprised if this game does kind of push
02:52towards the over right I think we're in a spot where I think the Chiefs we know
02:56that they like aren't scoring 30 points on an every week basis or however many
03:00weeks or rather they didn't score you know 30 more but like if they push
03:02towards 28 or so if we do see the Texans get to let's call it 20 they're not
03:08gonna the Chiefs won't cover that number but we are pushing towards that over so
03:12that's what I like immediately on Sunday night I said Joe makes an under 62 and
03:15a half rushing yards that number has dropped to 57 so I'm just not expecting
03:19big ground game from the Texans at all I don't mind looking to DeAndre Hopkins
03:23efforts over 29 and a half receiving yards yeah he is going up against his
03:26former team but they brought him in for a reason like they brought him in to
03:30have this role in the postseason to have that consistent pass catcher for Patrick
03:34Mahomes like picking up those first downs as they apparently are converting
03:38every third down when Mahomes has the ball in third and long like a couple you
03:42know 12-yard reception from Hopkins can put him over this number so I actually
03:45love Hopkins I don't mind all team up to 40 as well so not a ground game for the
03:49Texans and they could pass a game for the Chiefs and obviously they come away
03:53with the win I would keep an eye on Travis Kelsey as well 51 and a half is
03:57the number even when he is faltered in regular seasons past he and Mahomes the
04:03most prolific postseason pair the sport of National Football League has ever
04:08seen Beth Gill let's get to the first game on Sunday 3 p.m. Eastern Time kick
04:13and the link it's the Eagles and the Rams six and a half points spread in
04:17favor of Philadelphia total working its way up ever so slightly to 44 and a half
04:23how would you approach the matchup in the divisional round in the city of
04:27brotherly love the over I have a really tough time with judges don't know how
04:32this will play out I think the Eagles win I don't think they cover that like
04:34that's what it comes down to for me I think that's what we're gonna be seeing
04:37again it should be a very straightforward game from the Eagles we
04:40know what works for them it's keeping the ball in safe ones hands game 20 plus
04:44total touches whether it's on the ground or when in the air just get the ball in
04:47his hands it's not gonna be Jalen hurts passing the ball 35 times I expect a
04:50better game out of AJ Browns not just gonna be 10 yards I don't mind you know
04:54for him to find the end zone this week but pooping Akua under 87 and a half
04:58yards I know a lot of people will look back when they played I believe it was
05:01that Sunday night game you know in the middle of the season week 10 or whenever
05:04it was and poop it's like torture there's 117 yards exactly the Eagles
05:08defense is so much better over the past few weeks at limiting opposing wide
05:12receivers picking up yards so despite the fact that I think the Rams will be
05:15playing from behind I just do not expect it to be a huge game for poop maybe it
05:19will be a better game from someone like Cooper Cup but I do not expect anyone to
05:23be flying over their numbers this week all right I'm taking a look there at
05:27Washington Detroit the showdown in Motown here almost a double-digit spread
05:32nine and a half and a crazy high crazy high playoff total of 55 and a half
05:37Daniels comes to town fresh off of getting his first playoff victory which
05:40was on the road now he gets another road game against a rested and ready Detroit
05:44team what are we anticipating here the Lions as you know one of my co-hosts
05:49Adam Kaufman like to say the lines are just a freight train especially at home
05:52when it comes to covering numbers and you do not want to step in you know step
05:55in front of that and covering nine and a half would not surprise me like Daniels
05:59has been an absolutely awesome story this year he's going to win rookie of
06:02the year he has an amazingly bright future but I just don't think he's going
06:05to come away with a second road win and I do think the Lions will cover the game
06:09will hit the under I do not expect a ground game from Brian Robinson at all
06:13he had 10 carries for 16 yards last week his number was 46 and a half last week
06:17it's down to 37 or so this week I do not expect him to be involved I expect a
06:20decent role for Zack earth's in this game they have to get and I also like
06:23the attempts for Daniel so they're gonna be playing from behind and they
06:26literally cannot run the ball he's going to have to get there and the
06:30completions may get there as well simply because he's been extremely effective at
06:33especially high completion percentage this year so simply moving the ball and
06:37trying to play a little bit from behind I think we'll get there the only issue
06:40is if the Lions can have like 11 12 play drives especially with Montgomery back
06:45when they're just eating up the clock that will limit Daniels opportunities
06:48but I do think they will be in a full passing game script the entire time
06:51Detroit should have David Montgomery back but the odds still expecting Jamir
06:56Gibbs to carry the load offensively 80 and a half the rushing yards number for
07:00Gibbs Knuckles 45 and a half the number for Montgomery that being sonic Tom
07:06Vecchio as always we appreciate the prop perspective look forward to this division
07:11around weekend with you here on sports grid Donnie right side has a big weekend
07:17ahead because it is the division around of the NFL postseason with a double
07:22header of NFL playoff action on each Saturday and Sunday my man's working a
07:28double Saturday pro football today Sunday pro football today as well so he
07:34needs his rest he's not going to be here tomorrow for a football Friday that is
07:38fine that's what we've had throughout this NFL season but that doesn't mean he
07:42gets off the hook without giving you a best bet for each and every of our four
07:48division around matchups for this upcoming weekend DRS it is widely
07:53considered one of the best weekends of football each and every season why it's
07:57not a jam-packed slate it's not 16 games on a Sunday because it is the best of
08:03the best in the most significant matchup of a season trying to earn a spot in a
08:08conference championship and that is why we get everybody ready with your best
08:13bets and your thoughts on the division around I love it too and I'm excited
08:18because you know the tickets will start going into place you know me Ben you
08:21follow me on X follow me on Twitter here I love to show the people exactly what I
08:24get where we can get down and how much fun we can have on those and have some
08:27pretty good ideas heading into today you now have the practice report starting to
08:31take shape who's injured who's not injured who's going to get that gameplay
08:34another day closer to taking a look at some of these weather patterns but we
08:38should be able to make some educated decisions already today which will help
08:41us profit on Saturday and Sunday no doubt there's spreads there's totals
08:46there's props to all dive through we go game by game conference by conference
08:50and we start in the AFC with the final game of four of the divisional round
08:55weekend it's the game of the week as we all expect it in Buffalo the Bills host
09:01the Ravens minus 118 the number that slightly favors the flock 51 and a half
09:07is the total throughout this show Donnie and even yesterday we talked about the
09:11idea that as the odds expect this game should be incredible an instant classic
09:17that lives in NFL playoff lore but as we break down the game and try to handicap
09:23it do you agree with the odds makers do you give the Ravens the slight edge in
09:28Western New York I do I think the Ravens are the better overall team it's not to
09:33say well then Donnie you're hating on the Buffalo Bills I think the Bills are
09:36a wonderful team with an unbelievable quarterback of fun season and a great
09:39home field advantage but as Tom Vecchio was on appointing this pointing out the
09:43same way we were all doing last year in the AFC playoffs their bills to me
09:47excuse me the Ravens to me last year were the best team in the NFL if they
09:52just stuck to the game script they got away from their game script they got
09:56beat by Kansas City because I honestly believe they were better than Kansas
10:00City last year they should have beat them and then they would have beat the
10:02San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl take two this year same sort of
10:06scenarios great football team coming in healthy at the positions they need to be
10:11now granted say flowers looks like he's gonna miss this game that does hurt
10:14somewhat maybe he's back in later games but the mo for this franchise is run the
10:18football play good defense you'll win the game cold weather environment
10:22everything fits exactly Ben what they want to do so for me I would lay the
10:27minus one and a half for the Baltimore Ravens in this game I think it
10:30absolutely makes sense and you see the total 51 and a half and I just told you
10:34the game script for the Ravens should be running the football which means
10:38picking up chunk yardage that clock running repeatedly use the passing and
10:43your skills of your quarterback which are tremendous but use them efficiently
10:4625 pass attempts or less is perfect here run the football but also Ben if we're
10:52looking and saying do you like any props here which way would you go in this
10:55football game would it be wide receiver would it be running back I'm actually
10:59going quarterback and not quarterback yardage on the ground quarterback
11:03attempts and that's with Lamar Jackson at the Fandu Sportsbook who's listed
11:06Ben at nine and a half rushing attempts the reason you like this is if the game
11:11plan is for them to run the football you know Lamar's gonna have designed runs
11:15absolutely earlier in that game but let's just say things aren't going
11:18according to plan for the Baltimore Ravens Ben they're down a touchdown or
11:22more in the second half well Lamar's gonna drop back to pass more which means
11:25if the pass rush is getting home he's going to be able to scramble and run out
11:29repeatedly and once again if I think the Baltimore Ravens are gonna win the
11:33football game you might get three rushes by taking knees Ben at the end of the
11:38game I think it makes a lot of sense that this prop will be engaged all four
11:43quarters no matter what the score is that's what I like here Lamar Jackson
11:47using his legs at least ten times in this game for rushing attempts I like
11:53that idea DRS we saw both teams for both of their quarterbacks contending for the
11:58NFL MVP hardware not just have them scramble out of the pocket and break
12:03contain in the opening round but designing plays to utilize the
12:07athleticism 15 carries for Lamar in the big victory against the Steelers 81
12:12yards on the ground in the first matchup you really can't compare week 4 and of
12:18September but the Ravens ran it for more than 270 yards 8 yards per carry they
12:25were dominant on the ground Derek Henry his number flirting with a hundred James
12:30Cook only 55 and a half the Ravens have been the best rushing defense all season
12:38long entering this matchup including the playoff victory against the Steelers
12:42only allowing about 77 yards per game to the opposition on the ground in one
12:49thing Donnie that is sensational about this game it's not just what we expect
12:53for it to be an all-timer in the postseason but the narratives that will
12:58follow individually this season the MVP race between the Mar Jackson and Josh
13:04Allen and a couple of fan bases trying to bolster the campaigns for their
13:08quarterbacks that now don't really care for one another there's not long
13:12standing bad blood between Buffalo and Baltimore but there kind of is now
13:17entering this game and the narratives as well DRS for these franchises for these
13:23quarterbacks to change their playoff tunes the Mar Jackson three and four in
13:29his NFL postseason career Josh Allen and the Bills have won the AFC East now five
13:34consecutive seasons but have only played an AFC championship game once they have
13:39been ousted from the division around each of the previous three years who
13:45elevates their franchises ceiling who changes that narrative come Sunday
13:49evening there is so much at stake in Western New York all right first game of
13:54the weekend first game of two in the AFC to a very familiar spot Arrowhead
14:00Stadium with the Kansas City Chiefs once again the one seed in the AFC in an
14:05eight-and-a-half point favorite against the Houston Texans lowest total of the
14:09weekend 41 and a half and in the natural questions DRS for this game and how you
14:14see it playing out is a two-parter number one can the Texans keep this game
14:19within margin that eight-and-a-half point spread number two if so might the
14:24Texans be able to actually play spoiler and pull off the outright upset against
14:28Kansas City you know normally you just say fit the mold of what you've seen for
14:32the season I can't fault people for doing that the minute you see an
14:35eight-and-a-half you go that's ridiculous we think Kansas City's gonna
14:38win by no way shape or form they can cover but understand this Ben and I
14:42talked about this you know earlier in the week this is maybe the best by week
14:47coach in the history of professional sports getting your team ready Steve
14:51Spagnola there's a reason where even though he's in his mid-60s it's not
14:55starting to get calls once again to be a head coach he has been phenomenal this
14:58defense is actually getting healthier as a season goes along an extra advantage
15:02now in that secondary for them rested and ready they should be able to jump
15:06off the football now will they carry that through they get that lead at 14
15:09to 3 and coast to a 14 to 10 lead you understand the point because they've
15:13been doing that all season long but if I think I'm getting the best effort I
15:17can out of the Kansas City Chiefs in game number one right out of the gate
15:20in the playoffs this is probably your chance to strike I see that 41 and a
15:24half and I say to myself I don't know how much scoring the Houston Texans will
15:28be doing on offense so I do lean under there but I gotta tell you I don't think
15:32I'm playing this side but if there's one chance that you might be able to take
15:36Kansas City where everybody looks at that line he goes eight and a half is
15:39ridiculous and as we always say Ben that line is there for a reason was it
15:44made up where they picked it out of a hat it's there for a reason I think we
15:47might see a double-digit victory for the Kansas City Chiefs let me squeeze this
15:51in this might be one of the tougher games prop wise that I'm having trouble
15:55with is it going to be buying secondary options like a John Metch with the
15:58Metchie at 33 and a half maybe mixing 17 and a half receiving yards because I do
16:02think Houston is down I'm looking for pass catchers for Houston tacking on in
16:07the second half and Nico Collins has been that top target for CJ Stroud all
16:12year under Stroud the Texans are 11 and 7 against the spread as an underdog with
16:17eight outright victories including each of the previous two wild-card weekends
16:23in the NFL the Chiefs are perfect 5 and 0 straight up as a touchdown favorite or
16:27more this year but 0 and 5 against the spread now to the NFC will Donnie's
16:35birds advance to an NFC championship game a weekend from now because we start
16:41our division around best bets with DRS for our first game of two on Sunday 3
16:47p.m. Eastern Time in the city of brotherly love at the link it's the
16:52Eagles and the Rams Philly booked as a six and a half point home favorite total
16:56stands at 44 and a hook DRS nearly a touchdown spread but not quite there in
17:03favor of the Eagles how competitive will our first game of two on Sunday
17:08end up being it's gonna be fun I'm gonna be cheering I'm gonna be loud my living
17:14room I hope it's really cold because it don't teams going outdoors the Eagles
17:17have the advantage number one to the better football team number two they
17:20beat the Rams early in the season they're working on a day extra rest here
17:23and they've been at home for multiple weeks so I do believe two games at the
17:27end of the season the end of Lincoln financial field a playoff game and then
17:30another one they haven't been able to even get on a train in a month that is
17:33a massive advantage to what we're going up against for the Rams but how the game
17:36plays out to me you don't understand this it's gonna be Saquon Barkley and
17:40the effectiveness of the Eagles offensive line now it's been pointed out
17:43there's no discounts that you're getting now hey let's just bet Saquon to run the
17:47football it's a hundred and eleven yards if you ask me right now Donnie free bet
17:50does he get it I probably say yes why because it seems like he gets that every
17:53single week last week Ben one of my favorite wagers was over nineteen and a
17:57half carries for Saquon Barkley he ended up with 25 he'll be in that
18:01similar range if you look at the by low with the running back position I told
18:04you Kenny Gainwell under ten yards I think he's coming in somewhere on eight
18:07and a half to nine and a half yards right now at the Fandles Sportsbook he
18:10gets three carries he's going to get that but if we're centering our
18:13positions in this game but I think the Eagles win yes I do which means I'm
18:16going to think they're covering same way I thought last week against the Green
18:19Bay Packers the total of this football game 44 and a half and I'm thinking this
18:22game actually stays under the total because the ground game will be
18:25significant for the Philadelphia Eagles so playing into what I'm talking myself
18:29you know into for per se is why don't you just take Saquon Barkley maybe a
18:33Saquon touchdown I think those are valid here but I do think it relies on Jalen
18:37hurts even in the game he got injured Ben and played one quarter against
18:40Washington he's got 41 yards rushing you also saw him last week with the
18:44ability for the tush push and taking knees at the end of the game he will be
18:48running the football but it's not so much at Lamar Jackson or I'm taking an
18:51over nine and a half proper I want ten rushes I just want the yards out of
18:54Jalen hurts 39 and a half let's just say he gets seven carries in this game
18:59and he stays under 39 and a half I will live with that at this point here I do
19:03think there's a chance for him to hit his longest rush prop which he hit last
19:07week and doing the same thing when it comes to playoff games man you'll find
19:10me talking so much more about the quarterbacks themselves but if they're
19:14mobile quarterbacks being the ability to run the football and use it you can even
19:18use it in college football when you take a look at Notre Dame's quarterback
19:21rather than or hey let's keep you under 10 carries per game we can't use you up
19:24once you get to the college football playoffs let's go tomorrow 13 14 15
19:28carries here and the fact of the matter is the tush push is so big anytime they
19:33get into a short yardage situation that's two to three yards that you pick
19:36up that no other quarterback would be getting here so my attack angles the
19:40Eagles to win the football game I like the under even more but Jalen hurts
19:43rushing over 39 and a half yards I really like that specifically if we do
19:48get some elements as well Ben it was Jalen hurts his first game since week 16
19:53nearly a month last weekend at home against Green Bay still ran it a decent
19:58amount 36 yards on the ground and Donnie again Philadelphia not tasked with doing
20:04much offensively they will need to be better in this matchup against the LA
20:08Rams but it almost served then as a good opportunity for hurts to shake the rust
20:13get his feet back under him and get ready for the division around Matthew
20:18Stafford on the other side also has not had to do much for the LA Rams here as
20:23of late to end out the regular season to clinch the division and in that opening
20:28playoff game against Minnesota 209 yards and two touchdown tosses all coming in
20:34the opening half Tyler Higbee expected to play he was huge for that Rams
20:39offense in the opening half the offensive numbers of that game
20:43specifically at the link fascinate me because it should be dominant defense on
20:48display and yet the total is creeping its way up for what reason 44 and a half
20:55is the number right now Saturday night cap in Detroit the Lions first ever time
21:01as a one seed in a conference in franchise history the largest number in
21:07favor of a team this weekend it's not in a half that Detroit is laying it's the
21:13highest total of the division around at 55 and a hook so Donnie how do you make
21:18sense of those big numbers on Saturday night at Ford Field then there's a
21:24really good chance that yes Detroit can run the Washington commanders out of the
21:27building not because Washington isn't a good football team but Detroit rested
21:31and ready healthy at home getting players back that is a recipe for
21:34disaster for Washington but let's see the stand get 55 points and what
21:38actually would happen for them to get that we're not going to be kicking
21:41field goals we said that multiple times these two teams are ultra aggressive and
21:45fantastic at converting fourth down opportunities and if you are the
21:49commanders as close to a 10 point underdog coming into the game the
21:52coaches don't look at it like that but they know they're the dogs field goals
21:55don't beat Detroit in Detroit that's not happening here you must outscore them
21:59which means score more touchdowns than them whether you're playing a prop of
22:02over two and a half touchdown scored for the Washington commanders I think
22:05that makes sense but also understand this if we're not kicking field goals
22:09that's extra opportunities for touchdowns because you're betting and
22:12anytime touchdown market and kicking four field goals that hurts you that's
22:16your possessions and four chances that you could have gone for it on fourth
22:19down theoretically to get touchdowns let's just say half of those convert
22:22into touchdowns you're looking also against your quarterback Jaden Daniels
22:26multiple games in a row with two or more touchdown passes I understand how this
22:31game flow should go it's not Washington keeping the football which I think they
22:35want to do and running it themselves it's Jaden Daniels being electric in the
22:39pocket and going toe-to-toe with that Detroit defense I would be shocked if
22:44this game was somewhat close and Jaden Daniels do for less than one tire one
22:48touchdown or less he's throwing two touchdowns I miss the best of the number
22:52which is up there yesterday at fan to a plus 114 I think it's down around like
22:56that plus 100 range but Jaden Daniels to throw two touchdowns he's gonna be
23:00throwing the entire game not going on a fourth down and I think they're wide
23:04receivers have a slight edge over that Detroit secondary that's the way I play
23:07this game from a prop angle Ben I love a DRS it is something that Jaden Daniels
23:12did in his playoff debut last week also on the road in Tampa 268 yards multiple
23:19touchdown tosses was also the commanders leading rusher that is a story for this
23:24game in my mind I think the main storyline is what you alluded to both
23:28from the outcome but certainly from the odds those fourth down tries and
23:32conversions between two very aggressive head coaching philosophies if they are
23:38able to convert that means this game pushes to 55 and a half if they miss
23:43there goes some scoring opportunities DRS have a wonderful division around
23:49weekend I'll miss you and wait I'll be watching enjoy the money line on this
23:52Thursday as well you round out the show