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00:00So as we have shared a historic football Friday live right here on the early line
00:06the college football playoff starts tonight between Notre Dame and Indiana a
00:10tripleheader of the CFP tomorrow as well beginning in State College Pennsylvania
00:17at noon Eastern Time. Now there's been some conversation this week leading up
00:23to this Saturday the opening Saturday of the CFP about the NFL versus college
00:31football who is infringing on who because we have a doubleheader of
00:36National Football League games tomorrow as well. I don't think Ranieri it needs
00:42to be a conversation I don't think it needs to be a competition tomorrow
00:47Saturday December 21st 2024 can just simply be one of the great football days
00:55in the history of our lives because it is that again it starts at noon Eastern
01:01with the first leg of three in the college football playoff then at 1 p.m.
01:05Eastern Time we head to Arrowhead for the Chiefs and the Texans we'll talk
01:10about that game with Mahomes expected to start for KC in just a moment then at
01:154 p.m. Eastern Time to Austin we go Texas Clemson second game of our
01:21tripleheader in the college football playoff and then around 4 30 p.m. Eastern
01:26Time to the Charm City that's our next destination for a monumental matchup
01:32that could dictate the outcome of the AFC North this year two bitter foes two
01:39familiar faces it's the Ravens and the Steelers as a rivalry gets renewed
01:44tomorrow in Baltimore six and a half point spread Joe in favor of the flock
01:50you see that total it's a little bit lofty by this rivalry standards 44 and a
01:56half how do you think this game plays out in the second matchup between the
02:01Steelers in the Ravens this season much like the other 300 matchups between
02:07these two teams it's gonna be a rock fight Ben I don't see any reason with
02:14these two teams and listen Pittsburgh kudos to them they have played in some
02:20unbelievable shootouts this year I mean when you look Ben just what happened
02:26what a couple of weeks ago again since now that you're going is this the AFC
02:30North like what are we doing here what is going on well the reality is yeah no
02:36these two teams are different they know each other extremely well both coaches
02:42ton of stability there I just don't see it I mean these two have gone under in
02:47eight straight by an average of five points below that closing line here they
02:53have gone under at 11 of their last 15 meetings three of those games by the way
02:58were 45 points or more they scored 34 points against one another the first
03:05time they played this year how in the world are we getting over 45 especially
03:11if Pickens can't go for Pittsburgh and they can't stretch the field I don't see
03:17it I to me this is a rock fight and a dead under as far as I'm concerned and
03:22Joe George Pickens was ruled out yesterday based on the injured
03:26hamstring that will now sideline him for three consecutive weeks for Pittsburgh
03:31you remember the total in the first matchup between these two in the Steel
03:35City the Ravens who continuously play to the over as they have for a good
03:41majority of this season in the Steelers who are an offensive wagon with Russell
03:46Wilson under center 48 and a half game was 18 to 16 never even gave it a scare
03:53it's still 44 in a hook it is dropped by four from that initial total but still
03:59higher than what you might expect around 40 41 and a half for a game between the
04:04Ravens and the Steelers Joe let's go to the side quickly here because I think a
04:08lot of people would say hey it's a rock fight it no no no bad blood no love lost
04:14I should say between these two AFC North foes in a huge game for that divisional
04:20championship race you should just blindly bet Pittsburgh getting nearly a
04:24touchdown albeit on the road sure the Steelers did not cover did not look
04:30exceptionally good last week in Philadelphia in that in-state showdown
04:34but Pittsburgh since 2022 still 11 and 7 against the spread as a road underdog in
04:41Joe last week they're only non cover they're only non outright win as the dog
04:47this year they are five and one both straight up that's outright and against
04:51the spread as an underdog in 2024 so do you agree with I think the overall Betty
04:57notion take the Steelers and the points and you know you're gonna be in for a
05:01close game they've won six of the last seven in Baltimore they're seven and two
05:07against the number and the last nine all together here the last game bend that
05:13first time they met Steelers had the ball for 36 minutes in that game and
05:18Lamar Jackson had his worst game of the season what a 66 pacer rating they're
05:24just two three and one against the number at home here Tomlin some guys
05:29just have your number and Tomlin appears to be that guy to Harbaugh and the
05:36Baltimore Ravens I think what's fascinating here is that if it comes
05:42down to special teams Oh Baltimore doesn't have the better kicker anymore
05:47do they it's not Justin Tucker it's advantage Chris Boswell and in a game
05:51that is usually a rock fight yeah I'll take the team with the better special
05:56teams and that is without a doubt the Steelers right now total by the way
06:00again 44 and a half the flock have played to the most overs this year 11 of
06:0414 games for Baltimore Pittsburgh under and two straight but did go over in five
06:10of the first six starts that Russ made in the Steel City and again Joe the
06:15importance of this game is magnified tomorrow the Steelers have that
06:20advantage currently by a game and with the direct head-to-head tiebreaker over
06:25the Ravens right now in the AFC North but if Baltimore wins tomorrow they're
06:30even both at 10 and 5 they have split the season series they both had the same
06:35AFC North divisional record the advantage for Pittsburgh in why they
06:40still remain a minus money favorite to win the division the Steelers would have
06:44a better conference record against AFC opponents yeah it's would we have it any
06:51other way here Ben really honestly with these two and in this division like it
06:56Cincinnati kind of threw a wrench into it this year by not being a part of the
07:01conversation but ultimately it's these two teams it's always gonna be these two
07:06teams when it comes down to it so the Ravens and the year with a game against
07:11the Texans and then the Browns the Steelers will also play on the short
07:15week Christmas hosting Kansas City in the bank that's important as well
07:20a Saturday doubleheader in the National Football League that begins in Kansas
07:27City it ends in Baltimore the Ravens and the Steelers Joe before we get to Casey
07:33and of course the quarterback we will all have eyes on specifically his right
07:39ankle that is Patrick Mahomes let's talk the QB's dueling off in the charm
07:43city first Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP caliber level but Josh Allen more
07:49than likely to win the hardware five passing touchdowns for Lamar last week
07:53against the New York Giants Russell Wilson without George Pickens the
07:58offense as a whole has struggled a little bit for the Steelers how do you
08:02compare these quarterbacks for Saturday in Baltimore again familiarity right
08:09we already seen Lamar for whatever reason Pittsburgh has his number already
08:16had his worst game of the season against this defense any concerns about what not
08:22playing I think is ridiculous what will play and this defense for the most part
08:28understands Lamar knows how to beat I mean they're one of the few defenses
08:33that actually do understand how to go out of here so I do think the big X
08:39factor is going to be Ross no Pickens so is Austin enough you know my fear with
08:47Ross is that if he can't stretch the field if they don't have that one
08:52outside receiver and I don't know why you got Mike Williams if you don't
08:55utilize him down the field then he becomes one-dimensional and very easy to
09:01read the Ravens defense keep in mind Ben has gotten much better over the last
09:06month here so that you know they had issues early on in the secondary those
09:11numbers have clamped down they have gotten much better my fear is they
09:16better establish stretching that field and make them think about it otherwise
09:21Russ is gonna have a long day here against this Ravens defense the Steelers
09:26a great defense as Joe alluded to as well TJ what we would expect to play
09:31although he has been limited at practice this week Joe's point about Lamar's
09:36worst game coming against the Steelers back in November is incredibly sound the
09:41only game this year of seven that Lamar Jackson attempted at least 30 passes in
09:46through for less than 235 yards the only game this year Lamar had worse than a 50
09:51percent completion percentage he was 16 of 33 one of three games this year he
09:57has thrown an interception in in only a single touchdown toss he will have to be
10:02much better tomorrow for Baltimore to even win outright let alone cover is
10:07nearly a touchdown home favorite now let's go to Kansas City Joe at the end
10:13of Sunday's game the Chiefs had their largest victory margin of the season a
10:17full two touchdowns in Cleveland but with eight minutes remaining in the
10:21fourth quarter gasps poor Patrick Mahomes limping off to the sideline did
10:27not come back into the game the Chiefs called it a mild high ankle sprain but
10:32the term high ankle is never good missing at least a short week Saturday
10:38and then probably because the Chiefs have to play three games in ten days
10:42Christmas Day in Pittsburgh as well could the Chiefs hold on to the one seat
10:48in the AFC only for Mahomes to be a full participant at practice all week
10:54long on this short week and the confirmation that the odds makers were
10:59already leaning into making the Chiefs a favorite once again that Patrick Mahomes
11:04is going to start tomorrow at home against Houston now a three and a half
11:10point spread in favor of the Chiefs total stands at 41 and a half the
11:14Texans a nine and five football team clinching the AFC South a weekend ago
11:19but Joe at the very start of the show as we confirm that Patrick Mahomes is
11:23expected to start tomorrow in Arrowhead you said something of the sort really
11:29when you look at the spread and the total there's only one way to go which
11:32way is that well it doesn't make a difference Carson Wentz Patrick Mahomes
11:37and by the way I think Hollywood Brown set the return as well but who cares
11:43this is going to be a battle of the defenses period this is going to be a
11:49dead under and I don't care if Mahomes plays or Carson Wentz CJ Stroud on the
11:56road with that offensive line is going to be under constant duress by Spagnuolo
12:01and that Kansas City Chiefs defense and a lack of mobility with Mahomes gonna be
12:08a problem against this defensive Houston so to me I think this is a dead
12:13under all day long first half and full game under in this one the Texans the
12:20most unders this year in the NFL 10 of 14 games the only team that has hit
12:25double-digit unders so far this season what are we going to see out of Patrick
12:29Mahomes here are the early numbers from a Mahomes tomorrow against Houston who
12:35also has a great pass rush as Joe alluded to our number two of a football
12:41Friday comes a way that welcome to our number two of a football Friday live
12:47right here on the early line on sports created what a football Friday it is as
12:53we have mentioned a historic college football Friday with the opening game
12:58of the first ever 12 team CFP tonight at Notre Dame Stadium perhaps in the
13:04snow between the Irish in the Hoosiers and in state showdown in that Hoosier
13:10state a triple header of college football playoff games tomorrow a
13:13doubleheader of National Football League games as well don't forget the FCS pro
13:19season rolls on and semifinal Saturday at that level of college football and
13:24then Joe we go into a full Sunday of week 16 around the NFL we continue our
13:30preview of every single football game basically you need to know for the
13:35entirety of this weekend live right here on TEL back and it's gonna be a fun one
13:42Ben like you mentioned it this weekend from a football perspective it doesn't
13:48get any better than that mix of urgency with the NFL games as well as the
13:54college football playoff game sign me up I am looking very forward to it me as
14:01well my friend me as well that continues into Sunday where the stakes are
14:06certainly high in many many spots we've previewed the doubleheader on Saturday
14:12Patrick Mahomes is going to play tomorrow in KC the Chiefs a three and a
14:16half point favorite against the Texans inside Arrowhead huge game in the AFC
14:21North should be a classic AFC North rivalry renewed between the Ravens and
14:26the Steelers Baltimore a six and a half point home favorite another game Joe
14:31with direct implications on a divisional title race outside the nation's
14:37capital in Landover Northwest Stadium the site for the commanders and the
14:42Eagles matchup number two between the two top teams in the NFC East where if
14:47the Eagles can do what the odds expect and that's win on the road against
14:52Washington the birds will quench the NFC East for a second time in the last
14:57three seasons three and a half point spread in favor of Philadelphia 45 and a
15:03half is that over under Joe for Sunday afternoon between the Eagles and the
15:09commanders it's not a large spread but it is more than a field goal should
15:14Philly be able to clinch the NFC East division on Sunday afternoon listen I
15:21think what you got in the first matchup is going to be very similar to what
15:26you're going to get in this matchup I think they won by what more than a
15:30touchdown I think eight points in that first one there and it was how they won
15:35they rolled up 434 yards of offense against that Washington defense right
15:41they also own shocker stop me if you've heard this before the time of possession
15:46in the game Kingsbury and their rookie quarterback who's been great Ben but
15:52he's still a rookie going up against a defense that has gotten better and
15:57better under Vic Fangio here they went 3 of 12 on third down in that game none of
16:03that is going to change here the fact is this Eagles team is better than the one
16:08that already beat him by eight the first time they go around here Ben I
16:12don't see any difference I think the Eagles role in this one I think they
16:16lock it up and I think they right now are probably outside of Buffalo the most
16:21dangerous team in the NFL yeah they've won 10 consecutive games Joe it's a
16:26defense that has been elite for the last two and a half months as well Philadelphia
16:32in this 10 game win streak seven covers seven unders as well that first matchup
16:37was a short week Thursday night game way back in the middle of November
16:42Philly closed as a three and a half four four and a half point favorite they
16:46easily covered yes a single possession game 26 to 18 the final well under a
16:53total by the way of about 48 and a half for a short week Thursday again that
16:57Eagles defense on full display Joe it wasn't even as close as that final score
17:03might indicate as it was a touchdown pass from Jaden Daniels the rookie to
17:08Zach hurts back in Philadelphia in the final minute of regulation a successful
17:13two-point try made it 26 to 18 but again it was mostly two possessions for a good
17:20majority of that game despite the fact Washington had a 7-0 lead at the end of
17:25the first quarter and a 7-3 lead at the break a couple of huge take one Barkley
17:30runs early in the third separated things for Philadelphia and Joe when you
17:36look at the commanders I'm not trying to take a shot necessarily at Washington
17:42but we do this a lot in college football who have you been huh hey what's the
17:46strength of record what's that strength to schedule we don't do it in the NFL
17:50because things seem to be a little bit more equal if you will around the
17:55National Football League yes some teams play more difficult schedules than
17:59others but it's not like hey prove to me that you're a good team I will just
18:04say this about Washington when you look up and down the resume the commanders
18:09are a 9 and 5 football team they do not have a single win right now against a
18:15team that is above 500 they've got one win against the team that is even 500
18:21that was Arizona at the end of the opening month again I'm not trying to
18:25knock Washington here just trying to play this out for the sake of a step-up
18:30spot trying to hold off the Eagles from Philadelphia and the opportunity to
18:35clinch the NFC East it feels like as the odds makers are telling you Washington
18:40at home is more than a field goal favorite this game is going to be close
18:44Joe I would agree I would kind of lean the Eagles and if I'm leaning the Eagles
18:49I'm going back to the ground game with say Quan Barkley and I'm looking at the
18:53under of that total at 45 and a hook yeah and I mean we're talking about a
18:58Eagles defense also Ben that is giving up what 18 or fewer points and eight of
19:06the last ten it's an average of 15 points a game so I just don't think
19:11Washington is going to be able to keep up and I think once again the rookie
19:15Daniels hey he gonna go through it here with this defense and Vic Fangio I would
19:20even fade the Washington team total in this one and look at and look to go
19:24under in it as well so that lost to Philadelphia initially on the short week
19:29was the second loss of a three-game slide for the commanders where Jaden
19:34Daniels had kind of taken a step back he has been really good the last two weeks
19:37against the Titans and of course a wild game last week in New Orleans completion
19:42percentage above 80% but the Eagles have one of the best secondaries and passing
19:47defenses in all of the NFL here are the numbers for Philadelphia of course even
19:53a 10-game win streak at times has not kept every member of the offense happy
19:58but big weeks last week for AJ Brown and Devante Smith and Jalen Hurts throwing
20:03for nearly 300 yards with three total touchdowns not a big week for say Quan
20:08Barkley a big hit in his chase for history trying to pass Eric Dickerson
20:13for the all-time rushing yards record I don't think he's going to get there Joe
20:17even if he goes over this number on Sunday because if he does Philly
20:21clinches the division and we'll see what Philly still has left outstanding and
20:26trying to maybe earn that number one seed within the NFC well listen I mean
20:31it would be great but the reality is that's probably a very good thing for
20:37say Quan Barkley he does not need to be the end-all be-all for this Philly
20:42offense and I think what we finally saw last week was the passing game get back
20:48on track here and if that's the case then he becomes even more dangerous so
20:53less usage I think for say Quan heading into the postseason might not be a bad
20:59thing 26 carries a buck 46 and 2 scores in the opening game against Washington
21:06this year more on this game on the other side because it is very very important
21:11for that NFC playoff picture but out in Seattle the Seahawks a full field goal
21:17underdog against the Minnesota Vikings the Vikes 12 and 2 still in the running
21:22for the NFC North and perhaps thus the number one overall seed in the NFC
21:28Minnesota on a seven game win streak right now so there are the odds Joe will
21:33get your thoughts on that game out in the Pacific Northwest in just a little
21:37bit Seattle had won four straight entering Sunday night against Green Bay
21:42last weekend snapped that four game win streak they've been booked as an
21:47underdog in eight consecutive games they won outright as a dog on that four game
21:52win streak will update the status of Geno Smith on the other side of the
21:56break as well a huge matchup out in Seattle between two teams trying to
22:01factor into the NFC playoff picture it's the Seahawks hosting the Vikings on
22:06Sunday afternoon Joe we show the line before the break a three-point spread in
22:11favor of the Vikings on the road in the Northwest where Geno Smith expected a
22:16play he practiced in full yesterday despite exiting Sunday night football
22:21last week against the Packers with a knee injury midway through that third
22:25quarter total stands at 42 and a half the Vikings have won seven straight the
22:30Seahawks saw their four game win streak snap last week and their divisional lead
22:35within the NFC West evaporate what can we expect for Sunday afternoon out in
22:41Seattle yeah well like we've seen a lot I think with Seattle the inconsistency
22:48is just it's it's mind-numbing sometimes Ben with this team walks completely
22:54different one week and they do the next week and coming off of that what a
23:00letdown last week was here but Geno gets hurt looks like he's gonna go he's
23:05back practicing listen I still think Seattle's got a win by running the ball
23:10and playing lockdown defense I've also seen some regression from Sam
23:16Darnold over the last couple of weeks again lesser defenses and give give
23:22O'Connell credit like he sees it and then he goes to Aaron Jones he gets the
23:26running game going there were a lot of balls over the last two games of Sam
23:31Darnold Ben that were very able to be picked off and turned over and the
23:37coaching staff does a great job because they pull them back and I think that's
23:41exactly what they're gonna do here they're not going to let Sam Darnold
23:45lose games for him I think this is a lot of running like we're usually used to I
23:50think the Seattle defense poised for a bounce back and I expect this thing to
23:54go under the total here everyone looks at Minnesota and expects great great
24:00things and with good reason they certainly have the results but not
24:04against this defense in this game on the road outdoors yeah and Joe I would agree
24:10with the idea of an under 12 and to the record for the Vikings after another
24:14under on Monday night against Chicago limiting the Bears to only 12 points
24:19Minnesota has gone under in nine of their 12 victories this year they have
24:24also covered a ton in their 12 victories this season in fact as you
24:30look at it now it's nine two and one against the spread in their 12 wins but
24:36the Seahawks have been an underdog pretty much for the last two months of
24:39football in that four-game win streak they won outright as the dog each and
24:45every time Sunday Night Football is a peculiar one at the start not perhaps
24:52peculiar but feels a little bit interesting with the magnitude of games
24:56that we have one team firmly in the hunt for a postseason the other not
25:02mathematically eliminated but it's been a disappointing season of course in
25:06Dallas where this game is in the Cowboys have been atrocious in Dallas the
25:14Buccaneers in the top spot in the NFC South more than a field goal favorite on
25:19the road laying three and a half against the Cowboys total stands at 48 and a
25:25half the Cowboys as a road dog last week in Carolina good outright victory
25:31Dallas at home not so good what do you expect for Sunday Night Football at the
25:37start yeah I expect I expect Tampa and Todd Bowles to to show up here and I
25:46really do I think they they know the division is in sight postseason here I
25:51think Baker Mayfield has shown this spot is not going to be too big for him I
25:57think they are going to beat this defensive Dallas which has got a lot of
26:03warts still here Ben they've played better no doubt over the last month but
26:08I think there's levels to this and I do think the Bucs are more than capable of
26:13winning this game going away I mean why not everyone else seems to have beaten
26:18Dallas at home why not the Tampa Bay Bucs here who I think will absolutely
26:24come out firing I like them early in this game too Ben I think they lead the
26:30league in opening drive touchdowns here when they get the ball I think they'll
26:35do the same against this Dallas defense expect them to have the lead at the
26:39break as well Dallas is both one and six straight up and against the spread
26:44at home this season their only victory and only cover against the Giants on
26:49Turkey Day the Bucs have been a favorite six times this year they are five and
26:54one straight up and uncharacteristic loss to Denver as a touchdown favorite
26:58back in the opening month of this year they've also covered in four of those
27:03five victories as the favorite side I think it's a statement day for Tampa
27:08we'll talk about it a little bit later on on Sunday night the Buccaneers though
27:13need to keep winning games in the NFC South because if they were to even drop
27:18one in the Falcons win out Atlanta has that decisive tiebreaker having swept
27:24the Bucs throughout this regular season but what's going on in Atlanta are we
27:30trusting in the Falcons are we trusting in a rookie quarterback Michael Pettich
27:35jr. who will make his starting debut in the National Football League on Sunday
27:41the Falcons in eight and a half point home favorite against the to win New
27:46York Giants Joe if you were ever going to insert a rookie into a game to make
27:50his first ever start week 16 with huge postseason ramifications on the line as
27:56well the team you would want to do it against in the scenario you would want
28:00would be as more than a touchdown favorite against the Giants on Sunday
28:05afternoon I just love how people jumping on this narrative that Kurt
28:10Cousins the problem and yet nobody is talking about the rookie offensive
28:16coordinator Zach Robinson that they hired who can't seem to get a 40 million
28:20dollar quarterback who had no problems any place else generating offense with
28:25weapons but somehow her cousins is the problem and I think what's going to
28:30happen is Atlanta is going to learn rather quickly it wasn't a quarterback
28:34problem it's an offensive hire problem it's your offensive coordinator and the
28:39stale offense that's the problem here I would not be shocked if Atlanta loses
28:44outright in this game whoa the Falcons losing outright to the
28:51Giants the g-men of all teams yeah I'm not so sure Atlanta has not been great
28:57at home this season either Joe I think it's an under I think 42 and a half is a
29:02little bit too steep because of the offensive woes for this Falcon side and
29:07because the Giants have not presented much it would not surprise me to see a
29:12lot of Bajon Robinson on Sunday and a defense that held the Raiders to only
29:17nine points for the football Friday show next our NFL week 16 full slate preview
29:23that includes both Saturday and Sunday this week for a great football weekend
29:28continues live right here on the early line again Michael Pennix jr. set to
29:33make his first career NFL start on Sunday for the Falcons in a hunt of the
29:38NFC South divisional chase the Buccaneers near a $4 minus money
29:43favorite at minus 390 Atlanta and Pennix jr. a plus 320 price the Falcons would
29:49need the same record if not better than that of the Buccaneers but if the
29:53Falcons have the same mark they have the direct head-to-head tiebreaker that would
29:57be it having swept Tampa this season but a lot to be determined and even
30:03German area not comfortable with the Falcons laying more than a touchdown
30:06eight-and-a-half point home favorite in the a against the Giants on Sunday
30:11afternoon no props available for that game oddly just yet so the Buffalo Bills
30:17Joe feeling really good after winning their eighth game in nine tries against
30:23the Detroit Lions with a statement on Sunday in the Motor City an offense that
30:28has scored 30 plus points in eight consecutive games and then they like all
30:35of us watch Patrick Mahomes limp off the field on Sunday in Cleveland
30:40Buffalo's thinking oh boy we might have a shot because we have the head-to-head
30:45tiebreaker advantage with Kansas City of claiming that number one seed if my
30:49homes is not ready to go for maybe two or three of these final weeks to end out
30:53the regular season and we're playing the Patriots twice including on Sunday is
30:59more than a two touchdown favorite at home in Western New York now Buffalo's
31:04outlook for the one seed is taking a hit because my homes is going to play on
31:09Saturday but Buffalo's still not done in this race just yet Joe the question is
31:16not can Buffalo win its ninth game in its last ten it's can the Bills cover as
31:21a two touchdown favorite at home against the Patriots ah yes to keep it real
31:28simple here Ben I mean listen they are outstanding this year but there I think
31:35there's seven and three against the number as a favorite they've covered
31:38those games Ben by an average of almost nine points per game they have the
31:43second best overall cover margin in the NFL they roll up 30 points and they have
31:50in eight straight games and by the way the New England defense they're allowing
31:55just about 30 points a game over their last four it's starting to crumble with
32:01New England they've lost by 21 to the Jets 20 to Houston 16 to Jacksonville 19
32:08to Miami even 13 to Arizona that losing by more than two touchdowns is not new
32:15we're not asking for something rare to happen here Ben it would be all Buffalo
32:21in any way I can find them especially team totals especially first half full
32:27game I would absolutely lay it with Buffalo here oddly enough this game is
32:33at 425 p.m. Eastern time feels right for a 1 p.m. start despite the fact that
32:38Buffalo is one of the best if not the best teams in the NFL in fact the Bills
32:43will enter week 16 as that Super Bowl 59 favorite and their quarterback Josh Allen
32:50is nearly 10 to 1 in minus money to win the NFL MVP award 46 and a half is the
32:56total might Buffalo take its foot off the gas I mentioned they've won eight
33:01of their last nine the Bills have gone over in seven of those nine the Patriots
33:06over in five of their last seven because the defense has not been great and
33:12because Drake may at times has provided at least a tad of an offensive spark so
33:18let's talk about the team that Buffalo beat on Sunday that would be the Lions
33:23Detroit Joe dealing with so many injuries catastrophically so
33:28defensively they lose David Montgomery at least for an indefinite amount of
33:33time how will the Lions show some resolve and bounce back on Sunday in
33:38Chicago against the Bears oh I mean how do you bet the Bears I mean it's banged
33:44up as Detroit is I don't care how many points you want to give them like how are
33:50we are we expecting this I mean the body language over the last couple of weeks
33:54tells you everything you need to know can't protect your rookie franchise
33:59quarterback you're getting them absolutely killed you basically fired
34:03everybody there seems to be no real game plan or offensive continuity whatsoever
34:08here yeah no I'm good I would only look at Detroit in this one and maybe even go
34:16go under the Chicago team total because that's how little confidence I have in
34:21yeah I completely agree Joe it's all Detroit for me we'll talk about our six
34:26point two late teasers later on I think this is a great spot to do it and take
34:30the Lions down to a pit if you needed a guy to rally the troops it would be Dan
34:36Campbell he's already done that in the Motor City Mike Fluitt does that for us
34:40live right here on this football Friday on the early line on sports grid it
34:45would not be a football Friday without the services of one Mike Fluitt big blue
34:50joins us live right here on this Friday on the early line on sports grid to
34:55round out the final half hour of this second hour was so much football to get
35:01to blue we'll start with Thursday night we'll hit Saturday's doubleheader we'll
35:06talk the important games on a Sunday slate in preview everything around the
35:11National Football League with your help on this football Friday good to be with
35:16you obviously we got off to a really good start last night I I found it a
35:21pretty fascinating game because I think with those two teams in particular we're
35:27still searching for how good they are what the flaws may look like and those
35:34teams played a pretty damn good game big comeback by the Chargers obviously some
35:39spectacular plays all the way around from receivers I I'm still I think one
35:46of the takeaways is that I'm still so impressed with the way that Sean Payton
35:50and Bo Nix have worked together in this rookie season and they their future
35:56looks good for them with him under center not quite as bright as the Justin
36:00Herbert trajectory but nonetheless the Chargers put themselves in a little bit
36:04firmer ground to get that one of those final playoff spots it certainly feels
36:10out blew it right like classic overachiever the Broncos that got a lot
36:15of breaks headed their way in nine wins there's no guarantee they get to ten
36:21wins they got Cincinnati and Kansas City left am I crazy to think Denver is far
36:27from clinching anything here over the next couple of weeks unless they get a
36:31ton of help not at all I think it's very viable that they're still in
36:38trouble that's why it was such a huge game for the Chargers because they have
36:43relative cakewalk coming up with New England and the Raiders Raiders team and
36:49you mentioned just a few minutes ago Joe about New England it's starting to kind
36:53of fall apart it's falling apart in Vegas already so the two teams that may
36:58not have a lot of fight left in them and the Broncos look you and I watched
37:03the Bengals most weeks on in-game live sorry the Bengals the Broncos having to
37:09face the Bengals is a tough matchup Joe Burrow threw up 37 points last week and
37:15he was mad about it so I think that's a real challenge and then the Chiefs may
37:21not have to win that one that's going to be a huge break for the Broncos if they
37:25don't but it's worth monitoring I think you're right the Broncos can't be they
37:30have to go in to Cincinnati next week thinking they have to win to stay alive
37:34huge blue it's a huge matchup next Sunday since he already an early field
37:40goal favorite at home the Bengals have to win out the Bengals a comfortable
37:43favorite laying eight and a half points this week against the Cleveland Browns
37:48who will see who starts at quarterback come Sunday in that one of course if the
37:52Bengals beat the Broncos they would have the direct head-to-head tiebreaker
37:56we'll see what happens with Kansas City by the time they get to week 18 two more
38:01wins for the Chiefs they will quench the AFC's number one overall seed Kansas
38:06City in action tomorrow blew it in a doubleheader on a Saturday in week 16
38:11but I don't want to talk about arrowhead I want to talk about what's happening in
38:16a charm city with your Pittsburgh Steelers yeah there it is in the
38:21Baltimore Ravens for a huge game blue that might dictate the outcome of the
38:27AFC North divisional crown this season to the charm city we go six and a half
38:32point spread in favor of the flock total stands at forty four and a half in this
38:37rivalry within the division renewed blew it do either of those two numbers the
38:43spread or the total or maybe even both feel like too many points yeah so it's
38:50funny I kind of laugh whenever these spreads come out now because we get to
38:55talk about the Steelers have won eight of the last nine all of the games are by
38:59one score and the last eight games are to the under when they played earlier
39:05this year this total was forty eight and a half they didn't even get close this
39:12opened at forty six and a half and finally everyone was like all right
39:16they're not scoring a lot of points in any of these games so forty four and a
39:22half feels about right I think I think I still would bet the under on this one
39:27Lamar's been on fire and I think that's the fear for Steelers fans and anybody
39:32that wants to take the Steelers in a game like this especially since their
39:36offenses kind of hit the skids in the last two weeks but six and a half the
39:41Steelers is six and a half point underdogs how many times we have to talk
39:44about it this is Mike Tomlin's sweet spot they they keep these games close
39:50and they're just gonna have to find a way to confuse Lamar again and make him
39:55uncomfortable like they did a few weeks ago it's an interesting battle of
40:01quarterbacks and if it was anybody other than Pittsburgh I'd be looking to hammer
40:05Lamar Jackson all over the place but you can't do it against this defense he had
40:12his worst game against this defense already this year and Russell Wilson my
40:16concern Mike is they're gonna make them one-dimensional here without any threat
40:21of stretching the field and that is a disaster between these two quarterbacks
40:26agreed the the Ravens defensive backfield is obviously one of our
40:33biggest question marks regarding this team and their past defense hasn't been
40:36good for the entirety of the year but the Steelers playing ball control pass
40:41offense is not really the way to beat them either mm-hmm why I expect frankly
40:46a lot of punts in this game it's why I expect the score to be down the problem
40:51for Lamar against the Steelers generally and he could explode tomorrow I wouldn't
40:56surprise me that Lamar is an MVP candidate and an MVP player so it
41:01wouldn't ever surprise me if he has a massive game but the Steelers never let
41:07up on pass rush and I think that is why at times Lamar gets really frustrated
41:13it's just an onslaught every game it is very rare that the Steelers get diced up
41:18in the pass game the Philly did as good a job as you can do against them last
41:23week but they also pepper in an unbelievable rushing attack especially
41:28late in the game Philly's passing numbers were probably down a little bit
41:32because they were able to run the ball so effectively in the fourth quarter but
41:37I do expect a lower scoring game Ben I'll take the points here just because
41:41of the historic nature of these matchups I give the Steelers a chance but in a
41:46matchup like this it's hard for me to not expect them to split the home games
41:51in this instance despite the Steelers yeah success over the last five seasons
41:55so let's say that is correct maybe this game is more competitive than nearly a
42:00touchdown spread but Baltimore does win outright at home they would have the
42:04same record both at 10 and 5 they would split the season series they would both
42:08enter the final two weeks with the same division record within the AFC and yet
42:13Pittsburgh would have the slight advantage with the better overall
42:17conference record within the AFC one of the reasons the Steelers are still
42:22looked at by the odds makers as the hefty maybe not hefty but odds on
42:26favorites to win the AFC North crown at minus 170 blew it over these final three
42:32weeks when all is said and done this regular season in the NFL who wins the
42:36AFC North division who gets to host a playoff game come January hard for me to
42:43pick against the Steelers but we talked about their bugaboo and their schedule
42:48all season and now these three games were the crux of it the Philly Baltimore
42:53Chiefs games within ten days is as hard a stretch as we've seen frankly in the
42:59last several years at least so obviously they're hoping to steal one of
43:05these I'd like them to win tomorrow but if they can take care of Kansas City on
43:10Christmas Day that'd be okay I like the Steelers against Cincinnati in a home
43:14game in week 18 so it's another divisional win for them I'll give them
43:19the slight edge but nothing would surprise me at this point yeah if the
43:23Ravens do end up with the same divisional record as the Steelers that
43:27doesn't benefit them there and right now both teams are going to play
43:32conference foes the remainders of the way so that really if Baltimore is a
43:37game back right now they're not really going to have the advantage unless
43:40Pittsburgh slips up and they might have got a home game on a short week on a
43:45Wednesday against Patrick Mahomes we expect and Kansas City and one of the
43:50reasons we expected blue is because my homes is playing tomorrow against the
43:55Texans more from Saturday and a critical weekend up in the air NFC West
44:00a Saturday doubleheader in week number 16 of this NFL season is tomorrow we
44:07talked about the game in Baltimore between the Steelers and the Ravens
44:10that's the second of our two kicking around 4 30 p.m. Eastern Time the first
44:15game at 1 p.m. Eastern inside Arrowhead it blew it early in the week we thought
44:21homes that being Patrick might not play in this game might not play next week on
44:27a short week on Christmas Day Wednesday his status for the remainder of the
44:31regular season uncertain with a right high ankle sprain but then the guy was
44:37out there at practice in for all week the odds started to change in yesterday
44:42the confirmation Patrick Mahomes is going to start tomorrow on a short week
44:47Saturday against the Houston Texans in Kansas City now a three and a half point
44:52spread in favor of the Chiefs total still low at 41 and a hook how effective
44:58blew it do you think my homes will be how does it affect the game plan for the
45:02Chiefs against the Texans I don't really think all that much full participant
45:08yesterday we've seen a lot of this from him in the past I don't think it's any
45:16type of exaggeration on his part or histrionics on this part of some people
45:20suggest he took a brutal hit last week he was lucky to avoid a major injury I
45:25think he knows how to play even in slightly limited fashion and shoot he's
45:30won Super Bowls playing in this manner so I don't really think it impacts him
45:35much at all any doubt you have about the Chiefs is based on their body of work
45:40this year season which they've only lost one game so I I consider this to be
45:47a low-scoring affair Joe and I get to watch a lot of the Texans and we know
45:51their their offense just isn't clicking week in week out and they're going up
45:55against the Chiefs defense where I feel like this is an ideal scenario for them
46:00at home short week Stroud's got to go out there and prove it and I don't know
46:05that he can so it's a low number but I could see us getting under that maybe a
46:0920 to 17 Chiefs win that that hook those scares me I could see a field goal
46:14win for the Chiefs and the three-and-a-half is tough I think a
46:17really interesting live betting opportunity I like to choose to win the
46:20game but if Houston gets up early you're gonna bet it back the other way so Mike
46:26I gotta tell you before this season if you'd have told me the NFC West is maybe
46:31the most mediocre division in the NFL this year where we're entering week 16
46:38and still anybody can win the damn division is kind of absolutely
46:44mind-blowing to me but you gotta win if you're gonna win this division Rams you
46:49can't go to MetLife and lose you just can't lose to the dysfunctional New York
46:54Jets but I the Jets feel live to me with the way Aaron Rodgers has been playing
47:00here do they not absolutely the rug Aaron Rodgers game log look they've lost
47:08these games the Jets in spectacular fashion the Seahawks game they're about
47:13to go on more than three scores and they throw he threw a pick six his only
47:18interception in the last eight games I believe it is yeah yeah that's right in
47:23the last seven games he's thrown one interception that pick takes to Leonard
47:26Williams which really led to a huge comeback you know they lost to the Colts
47:31by a point the Miami game all of these games they've lost in spectacular
47:37fashion but the offense has been playing better particularly Rodgers
47:41they've been an odd team Joe for a variety of different reasons not not the
47:47least of which is there are high expectations on the Jets list this year
47:50and they're four and ten but we kept seeing them installed as favorites or
47:55short underdogs like they are this week even as they piled up losses and I think
48:00it's because there's still a lot of respect for Rodgers and the offense and
48:05people are ready to push Aaron Rodgers out of the NFL I understand that you
48:09cannot deny that his play has been really good over the last two months but
48:15I'm with you on the Rams that the Rams are another team I do not think people
48:20have talked about the Rams enough in the same way that they haven't talked about
48:24the Vikings enough the Rams have won seven of their last nine games they're
48:28on fire they they murdered the Bills defense in a game that very high-profile
48:36game it was a tough spot for the Bills they gave up 44 points so with Nakua and
48:41Cooper cup is throwing up zeros and it doesn't even matter because Nakua has
48:46been great Kyron Williams fantastic I really think that this Rams team has not
48:52been talked about enough I have to go with a massive coaching edge here with
48:56Sean McVay going in I think he has them ready to play and to Joe's point that he
49:00made earlier I think it's a very high scoring affair seven of the last nine
49:05for the Rams a victory in six of those seven wins they have covered their most
49:10recent six wins as well the Jets as a dog this year just one and three
49:16straight up oh and four outright their only cover as a dog was the overtime
49:21game against the Dolphins a few Sundays ago but the Jets have gone over in seven
49:27of their last nine perhaps that total of 46 and a half could be in danger big one
49:34blew it for the 49ers not mathematically eliminated from the NFC West race but
49:39not in a great spot they're just one and four in the division as well Isaac
49:44Correndo not going to play on Sunday for the 49ers the Dolphins not out of the
49:50AFC wildcard chase either but this is an absolute must win for both teams it
49:56is a pick'em who gets the job done on Sunday in South Florida it's tough with
50:04this spread but I I just love the over in this one you made the point about
50:09Correndo I think this will be teams throwing all day long ball control
50:14passing style offense in offenses that are very similar to one another so I
50:19expect a lot of points to be scored I think you can play a wide variety of
50:23player props in this one Tyree kill would be near the top of that list is
50:28Jalen Waddles health is uncertain likely to play but uncertain as he got banged
50:32up last week and had to leave the game so give me the over here I may be crazy
50:38that I'm leaning towards the Dolphins but I think if you force me to pick a
50:41team I think I'd pick the Dolphins here with the home field advantage and the
50:44Niners really going through a difficult time as I I think they fall out of the
50:51playoffs I know they're not officially eliminated but I don't see the night
50:54taking a mask come back here it is really fascinating again to look at
51:00these two teams and where they stand right now their season for San Francisco
51:04defined by injuries and thus they are a slight ever so slight underdog in Miami
51:11the Dolphins though as a favorite with Mike McDaniel 22 and 7 straight up
51:20more on this football Friday live right here on the early line on sports grid it
51:25is a football Friday our charge every week is to preview every single game for
51:31an NFL weekend that can include a Sunday slate or now a Saturday as well so we
51:36round out our four games remaining for week 16 and this weekend with Mike Blewett
51:43here on a football Friday rapid-fire we go to Carolina the Panthers last week
51:49for the first time since the final month of the 2022 NFL season we're expected to
51:55win a game booked as a favorite they lost by nearly 20 points in fact maybe
52:00even more than 20 they are back as an underdog blue this week hosting the
52:05Arizona Cardinals who still have life in that NFC West divisional race we
52:09talked about in our most recent segment four and a half points spread in favor
52:13of Arizona supposed to be chilly in Charlotte a lot of conversation around
52:19that with Tyler Murray this week what do you expect in the actual game blew it on
52:23Sunday in Charlotte yeah it's funny that there was a lot of momentum around the
52:29Panthers last week and then for them to get smashed in the way that they did
52:32turnovers by Bryce and it was just a really ugly game all around the four and
52:39a half doesn't seem like the Cardinals should necessarily be installed as that
52:43big a favorite on the road but I don't know that Carolina can get the stops in
52:47this game so I'm gonna go with the Arizona team total over 26 and a half I
52:54think they can score a bunch of points I don't know that Carolina can match them
52:58there but that's my favorite angle if I would lay the points here but I'd prefer
53:04to take the Cardinals team total over yeah kind of hard not to not to agree
53:11with you there blew it given the fact that they came crashing back down to
53:15earth that being Carolina last week here but talking about a interesting matchup
53:22and you mentioned it earlier Joe Burrow seems to be pissed if his team isn't
53:26scoring 40 points a game and he'll have an opportunity to do that again this
53:32week against the Browns who are going with am I getting this correct DTR is
53:39that is that it you're blowing I mean it's just as easy as it gets or what
53:44yeah I'm all over the Bengals team total again like I was last week they their
53:52team total first half and the Bengals are very good in the first half of games
53:57their top 10 scoring team in their last three you're averaging over 20 points a
54:02game in the first half and I think they match that I think that I think it's
54:05sitting at 13 and a half right now so go out and grab it before it gets over 14
54:10so Bengals team total first half you can find it on most books that's where I'm
54:15going because the Bengals get off to good starts we got lucky last week by
54:19the way an in-game live the Titans took a lead because of an early Joe Burrow
54:24interception and the Bengals were the underdogs early live in that game if you
54:29want to wait around to get a better number they didn't a half you can hope
54:32the Browns will score frankly I don't know they're gonna get a better number I
54:36think the Bengals blitz them from the start when you look at Cincy this year
54:41at home not overly impressive they are just one and five against the spread but
54:47over in 10 of 14 games including six of their last seven the Bengals scored 37
54:53plus points in four of their last six let's go to Indianapolis the Colts still
54:58have some hope left of making it to the postseason but they have to win out that
55:04includes against a divisional foe on Sunday blew it as more than a field goal
55:08favorite taking on the Tennessee Titans 42 and a half is the total what do you
55:13expect in this matchup so gross this game really genuinely a gross game the
55:20Titans play the worst brand of football in the NFL seriously every week we
55:27watch them they commit double-digit penalties they are terrible at times
55:33defensively and that was like their calling card was defense they got
55:37murdered by the Bengals offense and a Bengals offense that also committed
55:41double-digit penalties and we had 10 turnovers in that game Mason Rudolph
55:46will probably turn the ball over a little bit less than Will Levis but I
55:49expect the Colts here can't lay any money on the Titans the Titans a 3 and
55:5611 football team who have not covered in any of their 11 losses so far this
56:01season you thought that game was bad how about this one the Raiders at home in
56:05Vegas take it on the Jags who in their right mind made Las Vegas a favorite
56:11we back to the Raiders on Sunday because of it we are backing betting
56:16yes on an interception for both quarterbacks that's what we're backing
56:19here whoa now that's a play that's how you take bad football and make it
56:25profitable Mike blew it we appreciate the time as always you'll see Joe we'll
56:30see you on Sunday NFL football in-game live here on SportsGrid blue have a
56:38great weekend until then our number three of our football Fridays up next