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00:00:00So this is a football Friday on the early line, three hours basically dedicated to a preview and pregame show for the entirety of the division around weekend around the National Football League, four games in total, two on Saturday, two on Sunday, and we will start with the finale of for the marquee matchup this weekend, one we all expect to maybe instantly be a classic.
00:00:27It immediately live in NFL playoff lore for each of our four matchups.
00:00:33We will go game by game what the numbers are telling us from the odds perspective, the key matchups that will dictate the outcome and a eye on player props, the narratives, the storylines, and what it might mean for conference championship weekend exactly a week from now.
00:00:50So let's start that deep dive and the examination over these next three hours, basically on a football Friday on the early line to Western New York, Sunday evening, 630 p.m.
00:01:03Eastern time and a kick between the Buffalo Bills, Joe in the Baltimore Ravens.
00:01:08You see a small bit of movement in terms of those money line numbers becoming tighter and tighter.
00:01:14The Ravens remain a slight road favorite in Western New York, minus 112 on the money line.
00:01:20But yesterday that was minus 118.
00:01:23Maybe you are all saying, Ben, it's six cents.
00:01:26It is literally a nickel and a penny.
00:01:29What is the big deal when it deserves a spot in a conference championship matchup?
00:01:35And you see that movement for a game expected to be this competitive.
00:01:39It is worth noting a total north of 50 as well at 51 in a hook.
00:01:45Joe, when this line opened, the Bills were a slight home favorite, quickly favored the flock.
00:01:50They still remain a road favorite.
00:01:53By the time we get to Sunday night in Orchard Park, who do you think will be expected to win the football game?
00:02:00Oh, I think the market's telling you who they expect to win this football game.
00:02:04And it's not the Buffalo Bills, which is a little head scratching to me, Ben.
00:02:09I talked to a awful lot of people during the week behind the counter.
00:02:14And, boy, you'd be hard pressed to find any one of them telling you that, yeah, a lot of the pros are coming in and it's it's Buffalo they're looking at.
00:02:23It is all public money on Baltimore and not a whole lot of people are looking towards Buffalo's way, which I think is crazy.
00:02:32Given the fact that I mean, let me ask you, Ben, what is home field advantage in the NFL anymore?
00:02:39If a team who is nine and oh at home this season won four games in the 20 point range, another one by 30 plus points.
00:02:49Yet they are nobody seems to be giving them any credit here.
00:02:53Baltimore is supposed to go on the road in Orchard Park.
00:02:56So I guess home home field means nothing.
00:02:59Ben, apparently in the NFL anymore.
00:03:01That's what this line is telling me, that it doesn't make a difference where the game is.
00:03:06Baltimore is the better team and I am buying it.
00:03:10You know, what's really interesting to Joe, you would think if there was home field advantage worth anything in the NFL,
00:03:17especially in mid to late January in the postseason, it might be in Orchard Park.
00:03:24Kickoff temperatures expected to be in the single digits by the time we get to Sunday evening.
00:03:30And it's not overly windy on the shores of the lakes up there near the Canadian border,
00:03:36but it's still going to probably feel colder than even the nine degrees we expect that temperature to be.
00:03:45Joe Buffalo has only been booked as an underdog 17 times since the start of 2020.
00:03:51Of course, this has been a five year run where the Bills have won the AFC East each of the previous five seasons,
00:03:59trying to change the narrative, being bounced by the division around each of the last three years,
00:04:04only playing in one AFC championship game.
00:04:07Speaking of narratives, Lamar Jackson hoping to do the same,
00:04:11a three and four playoff record, trying to get back to the AFC title game for a second consecutive year
00:04:17and maybe turn the fortune of the franchise for the flock as well.
00:04:22Buffalo an underdog four times this year, Joe, including week number four in Baltimore to end out September.
00:04:30The Ravens won that game handily as a short two and a half point favorite, 35 to 10 at home.
00:04:37Buffalo in that game allowed the Ravens to run for 271 yards, eight yards per carry.
00:04:44Derrick Henry nearly had 200 himself on the ground.
00:04:49So Joe, maybe there is that idea that the Ravens have done it before.
00:04:54The Ravens are going to run the football effectively as we saw in the opening round.
00:04:58And maybe the Bills are not meant to slow down that rushing attack of the King and Derrick Henry
00:05:04and potentially the MVP winner for a second year in a row, Lamar Jackson.
00:05:10And here lies the problem, Ben, when it comes to the public handicapping a game like this.
00:05:18What happened in week four has absolutely no bearing on what is going to happen in this game.
00:05:26And yet, if you listen to people talk and you read, all they keep doing is referring to this week four game,
00:05:33a game in which the Bills were missing Matt Milano, Taryn Johnson, and A.J. Apencia there in that first game.
00:05:41So three starters on the defensive side of the ball for the Buffalo Bills was not in that game there.
00:05:47They also didn't ask Lamar Jackson to do much in that one, 13 to 18 for a buck 56.
00:05:53Why? Well, because they couldn't stop the run and there really wasn't any need to.
00:05:58That game was over before it started, but that was week four.
00:06:02Anything that you are taking and carrying over and thinking that's going to be what we get here,
00:06:08I think you're sadly mistaken, not to mention this is a, again, home field advantage.
00:06:15And you're telling me Lamar Jackson versus Josh Allen with the game on the line.
00:06:20Who are you taking? I'm taking Josh Allen at home any day of the week in a big game, any day.
00:06:27And, and, you know, it's super interesting as well, Joe, in that game, Buffalo scored only 10 points the season low.
00:06:36They have scored 30 plus with all the starters out there in 10 of their last 11.
00:06:43We'll talk about the total on the other side of the break, but it is north of 50,
00:06:48which might seem a little bit interesting for a wintry Western New York in late January, 51 and a half.
00:06:55The total way back in week four in sunny Baltimore at the end of September was 47 and a hook and it stayed under.
00:07:04It was one of four unders the Ravens played throughout the regular season.
00:07:09One of the best over teams throughout this year.
00:07:13We'll talk about that total and two elite scoring offenses in the quarterbacks next on the early line.
00:07:19What we all expect to be the best game of the division around is the final game of the weekend.
00:07:24Our fourth and final in Western New York between the bills and the Ravens.
00:07:29It is approaching a virtual pick them.
00:07:31Eight cents of difference on the money line with a total north of 50, 51 and a hook.
00:07:37Again, we talked about this idea yesterday.
00:07:40If the numbers follow suit, if the odds track, we are expecting the closest of close and competitive games in a high scoring affair.
00:07:50But Joe, it is mid to late January in Orchard Park, New York,
00:07:54with a total of 51 and a half in single digit temperatures expected by the time we get to kick on Sunday evening.
00:08:01How much offense are you expecting for the fourth and final game of the division around?
00:08:07Oh, I think we're going to expect some some offense here,
00:08:11but I don't think it's going to be a wild and crazy kind of game, Ben,
00:08:17where we're going to get 60 or more points in here, which is kind of what to tell you the truth.
00:08:23I thought maybe it'd be even a little bit higher.
00:08:25And I do think it's going to get pushed a little bit higher as the public money comes in, you know, 24 hours prior.
00:08:32And we all know they're going they love their overs.
00:08:34And I think they will push this thing up a little bit here.
00:08:38But I'm not so sure, because let's face it, if Baltimore is going to win this game,
00:08:43they're going to win it because the defense ends up smothering the Buffalo Bills and vice versa.
00:08:49This we have seen both of these teams, yes, playing a lot of very high scoring games.
00:08:54But under these conditions, do or die in the playoffs where neither team has been able to break through,
00:09:01especially against the Kansas City Chiefs, who in all likelihood is waiting on deck.
00:09:06I think this is a this is a much less offensive minded game and a much more defensive
00:09:13and maybe not take as many chances kind of game here.
00:09:17So I'm leaning at the under because in Orchard Park in January with a trip to the AFC championship on the line,
00:09:25I don't know that we're going to get all sorts of craziness offensively in this game.
00:09:31It is still playoff football in five of our six games during wildcard weekend went to the under.
00:09:37The Ravens defense so much improved in their last five games, allowing 17 points or fewer in all five.
00:09:44Baltimore, the best rushing defense in the NFL, allowing just about 77 yards per game.
00:09:51And that was the case even before the Pittsburgh game to kick off the opening round of the postseason for the Ravens last Saturday.
00:09:59Buffalo's defense in a big step up spot. But Joe, outside of that, it is also the quarterback comparison.
00:10:07We're talking about two guys trying to change the narrative of their playoff lives and that of their organization.
00:10:14Five consecutive years winning the AFC East for Josh Allen and Buffalo.
00:10:19One AFC championship game birth to show for it in the last three years in exit in this very weekend.
00:10:26The divisional round, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens three and four.
00:10:31When Lamar has been the starting quarterback for their playoff runs since 2019.
00:10:36And then, Joe, there is the individual solely this year, two guys competing directly head to head for the NFL MVP hardware
00:10:45that has allowed both fan bases to kind of bolster their guy up and feel some vitriol to the other side.
00:10:53Which quarterback do you expect to shine on Sunday in Buffalo?
00:10:58It's not even a choice for me, Ben. I think the Buffalo Bills are going to look defensively much better against the run
00:11:07and Derrick Henry in this game than anything you might have seen in week four.
00:11:12So if that's the case, Ben, then what we're going to have is a game that is going to come down to the quarterbacks.
00:11:18Right. It's going to be Ken Lamar Jackson out.
00:11:21Dual Josh Allen. And I'm sorry, I don't see that happening with Josh Allen in Orchard Park at home here.
00:11:29I think Josh Allen, especially at any plus number here, this Buffalo Bills game.
00:11:34If it comes down to Lamar versus Josh and Josh's home, I'll take Josh Allen all day long.
00:11:41If Lamar was home, I would take Lamar Jackson.
00:11:44But I'm sorry. I think this is this is advantage Buffalo and Josh Allen in this game.
00:11:50Both guys were sensational in the opening round of the postseason.
00:11:53Six incompletions for Josh, more than 270 yards to the air, two touchdowns and 46 on the ground.
00:12:01Lamar, five incompletions, only a buck seventy five.
00:12:04But the Ravens did not have to do much against the Steelers on Saturday night.
00:12:09Still multiple touchdown tosses and 81 yards on the ground with 15 attempts.
00:12:15Both expected to do a lot on Sunday evening as well.
00:12:21The way it should be in a matchup between two guys contending for that MVP award this season
00:12:27and trying to earn their team a spot in the AFC championship game.
00:12:32But they can't do it alone. The rest of the props for Sunday evening in Orchard Park.
00:12:38We continue to take a deep dive into every divisional round matchup on this football Friday on the early line.
00:12:45And right now, that means the final game of the weekend, one we expect to be an instant classic
00:12:51and be an NFL playoff legend for many years to come.
00:12:56Is that too high of expectation? I certainly hope not.
00:13:00I hope it matches the hype that we are setting for that game in Buffalo Sunday evening.
00:13:06Bill's Ravens, nearly a pick'em, a total of 51 and a half.
00:13:11We just examined the quarterback comparison and a lot of weight and pressure on the two signal callers.
00:13:17Josh Allen for Buffalo, Lamar Jackson for the Ravens.
00:13:20Trying to dominate the storyline this year in direct head-to-head competition for the NFL MVP
00:13:27and personally responsible for changing the fortune of franchises in playoff runs.
00:13:34But Joe, I also think we have a very compelling running back matchup on Sunday.
00:13:39Of course, your first attention would be on the king.
00:13:42That is Derrick Henry. You see the props there.
00:13:4419 and a half, his attempts, prop 96 and a half on the ground.
00:13:49He had a buck 99 in the opening matchup way back in week four against Buffalo.
00:13:54He had 186 yards on 26 carries last week to start off the postseason against the Steelers.
00:14:01It's greater than a $2 favorite in minus money to hit Pater.
00:14:05But James Cook on the other side.
00:14:07Now those numbers seem awfully low.
00:14:10I understand the Ravens have the best rush defense in the NFL,
00:14:14but I think James Cook plays a much bigger factor in this game, Joe,
00:14:19especially that plus 105 price to hit Pater in a game that features a total of 51 and a half.
00:14:26Listen, I agree with you and I think he has to.
00:14:30I think he he has to play a big role in this game for Buffalo.
00:14:35I thought it was very interesting the game plan last week against Denver
00:14:39and how you kept waiting for them to do anything else other than run the ball.
00:14:45But Denver couldn't stop Cook.
00:14:47So you know what Buffalo kept doing?
00:14:49Handing the ball off to cook and he kept getting five, six yards of pop.
00:14:53He looks much better than he has had in a very long time.
00:14:58And keep in mind this offensive line for the Buffalo Bills has missed.
00:15:03One starter has missed one game over the last couple of seasons here.
00:15:07This is the most consistent.
00:15:09You want to talk about continuity here, Ben?
00:15:12This offensive line of the Buffalo Bills has been through wars together
00:15:16and they have maintained their health over the last couple of seasons.
00:15:20That's going to play a huge role in this game at home and running the ball here.
00:15:26And if it's not James Cook, then you got to worry about Josh Allen.
00:15:30So both of these teams are going to have their hands full defensively
00:15:34when it comes to the running game.
00:15:36But I would not sleep on James Cook having a big afternoon here.
00:15:40Neither would I.
00:15:4223 carries for a buck 20 and a touchdown in the opening round win
00:15:47at home against the Broncos.
00:15:49And again, that's not an aberration for James Cook.
00:15:52Back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.
00:15:54But Joe, last year, he only had two rushing touchdowns
00:15:57the entirety of the campaign for Buffalo.
00:16:00He has 17 in total this year, 16 in the regular season
00:16:05tied atop the National Football League.
00:16:07Sure, the Ravens allowed fewer than 30 rushing yards to the Steelers
00:16:11in a left offense a week ago.
00:16:13And the Ravens have been the best rushing defense in the NFL all season long.
00:16:19Really, from opening to end, they allowed in the regular season,
00:16:23if you want to bring everybody into the fold,
00:16:25just about 80 yards per game.
00:16:27Again, the least amount given up in all of the National Football League.
00:16:33But James Cook to hit Pater at plus 105, again,
00:16:37in a game that features a total of 51 and a half.
00:16:41I like that number a lot on a guy that has scored 19 total times this year,
00:16:4617 on the ground.
00:16:48And Joe, it's really intriguing to have two MVP frontrunners
00:16:52facing off against one another without a lead-wide receiver
00:16:56really to break down their props.
00:16:58But as we look at the three top guys for the Ravens,
00:17:01we're not expecting Zay Flowers.
00:17:03We'll see if that changes by the time we get to Sunday night.
00:17:06But Rashad Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely,
00:17:10those three highest receiving yards numbers for the flock
00:17:13on the other side for Buffalo.
00:17:15Khalil Shakir, and then a pretty good drop-off,
00:17:17the Dalton Kincaid and Keyon Coleman, the rookie out of Florida State.
00:17:22Of those guys, Joe, the pass catchers for Sunday night in Western New York,
00:17:27is there anybody you expect to step up
00:17:29that maybe you can find a discount on that yardage prop?
00:17:33Listen, he's not on the list here, but we should also mention,
00:17:36don't sleep on any of the numbers for Justice Hill either
00:17:40as a change of pace back there for Baltimore here.
00:17:45So he's also, I think, could have a big role in this one.
00:17:50But you got to look at the tight ends, right, Ben, in this list here.
00:17:55Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Dalton Kincaid
00:17:58are guys that are going to sit down right in the middle of the defenses there
00:18:05and not only grab catches but also pick up some yards here.
00:18:11So while I don't think they're going to be able to stretch the field
00:18:14at all Baltimore without, say, Flowers,
00:18:16they're a different passing attack without him.
00:18:19We have seen that.
00:18:21They did it last week with Derrick Henry because why?
00:18:24Well, because they had nobody stretching the field in that game.
00:18:27They won't have it here either.
00:18:29So it's got to be all about Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely,
00:18:33moving the chains here.
00:18:35And on the flip side, Knox and Kincaid better show up in a big way here
00:18:39in this game, especially as the emergency dump-off opportunities
00:18:44come for Josh Allen.
00:18:47Again, Dave Flowers injured late in the game against the Cleveland Browns
00:18:50or early in that game, I should say, against the Cleveland Browns
00:18:53but in the regular season finale in week number 18.
00:18:57Because of that knee injury, he did not play last week
00:19:00to start off the playoffs against the Steelers,
00:19:03has been a DNP, did not practice each of the past two days,
00:19:08Wednesday and Thursday.
00:19:10We'll see if that status changes at all on this Friday.
00:19:14Joe, as we go back to this game overall, again, it is a pick-em, basically.
00:19:19It is minus 112 with a slight .5 in favor of Baltimore on that spread.
00:19:25A total at 51.5.
00:19:28The Ravens this year have been favored in every single game
00:19:31since the season debut in Arrowhead.
00:19:34They are 13-4 straight up.
00:19:36They are 11-5-1 against the spread.
00:19:39Technically, the spread could come into play, seeing as it's a .5.
00:19:44Buffalo, an underdog four times this year.
00:19:47Two outright wins, two outright losses,
00:19:50failing to cover a number, including way back in week number four.
00:19:55But as Joe has mentioned, you can't really handicap a week four game
00:19:59to end out September at this stage of the NFL season.
00:20:03In this moment, in the divisional round,
00:20:06in an area it sounds like, in your estimation, the Buffalo Bills,
00:20:10even if they close as a slight home underdog,
00:20:13come Sunday night against the Ravens,
00:20:16win a football game outright in advance of the AFC championship.
00:20:20Listen, both these teams are not often underdogs in any situation.
00:20:26And any time they are, Ben, I would look to back them.
00:20:31And this is no different here.
00:20:33I think the Bills should be favored in this matchup at home.
00:20:38I think that far too many people are referencing what they saw in week four,
00:20:43which means absolutely nothing in this game.
00:20:46And the fact that we can even get Buffalo now, Ben,
00:20:49in a teaser situation to get them up and over a touchdown.
00:20:53Boy, oh, boy.
00:20:55Money line, plus the 1.5, plus 7.5 in the teaser,
00:21:00and start loading up on the Buffalo Bills this weekend.
00:21:04And it should be very important.
00:21:06We'll talk about the Chiefs in the first game of the weekend tomorrow afternoon
00:21:10on the other side of the break.
00:21:11But, of course, KC having home field advantage
00:21:14and the playoff pedigree that neither the Ravens or Bills have
00:21:18is the favorite to win the AFC championship.
00:21:20Plus 1.35.
00:21:22Baltimore second best price at plus 2.10.
00:21:25Buffalo third best number at plus 2.40.
00:21:28If you believe strongly in your heart of hearts
00:21:31that one of these teams is just going to win outright on Sunday,
00:21:35it could be worth a wager on said team to win the AFC championship game as well.
00:21:41More than likely an underdog in Kansas City,
00:21:44but not necessarily probably more than a field goal dog on the road in Arrowhead.
00:21:51So note those AFC title prices.
00:21:54Speaking of Arrowhead, to the home of the two-time reigning Super Bowl champions now.
00:21:59Live right here on the early line on Sports Grid.
00:22:02It is a football Friday, but not just a football Friday.
00:22:06A football Friday entering the divisional round,
00:22:09and quite possibly as it is each and every NFL season,
00:22:12the best weekend of football each and every year.
00:22:15Not because we have jam-packed slates that fill up the docket both Saturday and Sunday,
00:22:21but because we have the best of the best competing in their biggest games of a season.
00:22:26And for the Kansas City Chiefs, that is a hope for history.
00:22:30The two-time reigning champs, the number one seed in the AFC,
00:22:34a 15-win football team in 2024,
00:22:38gets ready to enter the postseason fold,
00:22:41hoping to defend their two consecutive Lombardi trophies
00:22:45and play in a Super Bowl for a third consecutive year,
00:22:49becoming the first-ever back-to-back Super Bowl winner to do just that,
00:22:53even compete in the biggest of games on a Super Bowl Sunday for a third straight season.
00:23:00It is the first game of divisional weekend tomorrow afternoon in Kansas City, Missouri,
00:23:06with an eight-and-a-half point spread in favor of the Chiefs
00:23:09against a Texans team that for a second consecutive year
00:23:13has won the AFC South with quarterback C.J. Stroud
00:23:16and won a home playoff game as a short underdog outright to see the divisional round.
00:23:22Total at 41 and a hook.
00:23:24You see that spread, Joe, north of a touchdown.
00:23:27We know what the argument has been against KC all year long,
00:23:30not overwhelmingly impressive, not blowing anybody out.
00:23:34So an eight-and-a-half point spread for this matchup to kick off the divisional round
00:23:39tells you what about this game?
00:23:42Well, it tells us good luck, Houston, in this game here.
00:23:47Listen, I was on Houston last week, Ben, part of our pick six here on the show.
00:23:54I had given out Houston as my money line underdog.
00:23:58I was not a big believer in the Chargers, and as much as Houston had struggled,
00:24:03they had the experience in that spot here.
00:24:07But you may recall, Ben, that Houston last year also won a playoff game
00:24:11against Cleveland to open up things, right?
00:24:14And then what did they do?
00:24:16Well, then they went and visited the top seed in the AFC.
00:24:19Remember who that was? It was the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore.
00:24:23Remember how that game ended up for them?
00:24:25Yeah, it wasn't good.
00:24:27And as far as I'm concerned, this is a worse offensive line for the Houston Texans
00:24:34than they were a year ago, and they got dismantled by the better Ravens team.
00:24:40My feeling is they're going to get dismantled by a better Chiefs team.
00:24:46And again, you're getting the same situation here, Ben,
00:24:49where people are quoting ATS records of Kansas City from the regular season.
00:24:54If by now you don't realize there's regular season Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City,
00:25:00and then there's playoff Patrick Mahomes,
00:25:03I don't know what to tell you here.
00:25:05Kansas City will win this game by as many points as they want.
00:25:09It will likely be double digits,
00:25:11and there is no way I want anything to do with Houston in this spot.
00:25:15Because that regular season, Mark, especially for Kansas City this year,
00:25:20in five games as a touchdown favorite or greater, is not overly impressive.
00:25:25They are perfect straight up, meaning they have not squandered a game
00:25:29they were expected to win comfortably, 5-0,
00:25:32but they are 0-5 against the spread as a touchdown favorite or more
00:25:37throughout the regular season.
00:25:39But Joe, there are some very familiar settings for both of these teams
00:25:43entering this matchup to kick off Divisional Round weekend.
00:25:47Let's start with the two time reigning Super Bowl champs, the Kansas City Chiefs.
00:25:52Patrick Mahomes has now been the starting quarterback for seven full seasons in KC.
00:25:58In the prior six, Kansas City has reached the AFC Championship game all six years.
00:26:04Kansas City has made the Super Bowl four times.
00:26:07They have hoisted a Lombardi Trophy three,
00:26:10including these previous two years consecutively in the National Football League.
00:26:16So, since the start of the 2018 postseason,
00:26:19with Mahomes as the starting quarterback for KC,
00:26:22what is that ATS record in 18 total games?
00:26:2613-5 against the spread.
00:26:29A very different team in the most important games of a season.
00:26:34Now, let's talk the Texans.
00:26:36Last year, won the AFC South with a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach,
00:26:40CJ Stroud and D'Amico Ryans.
00:26:43They were a home underdog of two and a half points against the top wild card team.
00:26:48Last year, it was the Cleveland Browns.
00:26:50They won outright as a home underdog.
00:26:53What did they do this year?
00:26:54They won the AFC South.
00:26:56They were the fourth seed in the AFC playoff picture.
00:26:59They were a home underdog catching two and a half points against the top wild card team.
00:27:03This year, the Chargers.
00:27:05They won that game outright.
00:27:07What did they do in the division around a year ago?
00:27:11Against the one seed in the conference, fresh off a bye on the road.
00:27:16The Texans got worked 34-10.
00:27:20And it wasn't like the odds makers were expecting a close game in the Charm City last year, Joe.
00:27:25Four and a half, five points spread.
00:27:27It was a nine and a half point number in favor of the Ravens.
00:27:31And the Texans never even really got all that close to covering that hefty margin.
00:27:37There is a reason that Kansas City is laying eight and a half points tomorrow in Arrowhead.
00:27:44A very big reason why.
00:27:47And, you know, let's face it, Ben.
00:27:50I think that Texans team last year was better offensively.
00:27:55They've lost most of their weapons.
00:27:58Now we've learned that Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury.
00:28:02So he might be limited.
00:28:04I mean, he's kind of the heart and soul of that team.
00:28:06To expect this team, who struggled all year to protect Stroud, who's been sacked more than anybody,
00:28:12against this Chiefs' rested defense, I think is just, it's crazy.
00:28:17But again, you can lay the eight and a half with Kansas City.
00:28:21But boy, oh boy, are they a fantastic teaser opportunity to get under a field goal.
00:28:27And I think we can all live with the fact of thinking Kansas City likely wins this game by at least a field goal here.
00:28:3541 and a half is that total.
00:28:38And Joe, we have said it is foolish to compare numbers to even regular season games.
00:28:43We talked about Buffalo and Baltimore way back in September.
00:28:47Even the first time these two teams met up in week number 16 on a short week Saturday,
00:28:53the number was three points in favor of Kansas City at home.
00:28:57They won that game 27 to 19.
00:29:00They covered the total pretty close as well.
00:29:0342 and a half, it skied to the over.
00:29:06We're talking about five and a half points of difference on the spread.
00:29:10That should be alarming, but a rather similar over-under.
00:29:14We'll talk total in the quarterbacks as we do up next.
00:29:18The opening hour of a football Friday dedicated to the division around the National Football League.
00:29:25We start with the game that will start off the weekend.
00:29:28Inside Arrowhead Stadium tomorrow afternoon, 4.30 p.m. Eastern time.
00:29:33The Chiefs, a hefty favorite, laying eight and a half points.
00:29:36That total is our topic of conversation right now.
00:29:3941 and a half.
00:29:41Joe, it is the lowest over-under of the entirety of our four matchups this weekend.
00:29:46During wildcard weekend, we saw a ton of unders,
00:29:49but the only team that played to an over, or the only game, I should say, that would be Houston.
00:29:56It was the highest game of the weekend in the opening round of the postseason
00:30:01against the Chargers on Saturday, 44 combined points.
00:30:06What are your thoughts on the total and what it will mean for the outcome of tomorrow afternoon's game in KC?
00:30:14Well, I think if you look at this Houston team, if you're going to give them a chance to, let's say, win,
00:30:22but let's just say cover this game, Ben, if you're going to give them a chance to do that,
00:30:27they're going to have to do it by playing defense.
00:30:30And their defense, if we're all being honest, it was the defense that beat the Chargers last week.
00:30:37It wasn't Stroud in the offense by any stretch here.
00:30:41But the chances of Patrick Mahomes throwing four interceptions in this game against this defense,
00:30:47I think there's not a very good chance.
00:30:50However, I do think Kansas City has a formula that they always stick to,
00:30:56and it's usually have the lead maybe at the break and then suffocate you in the second half
00:31:01and play keep away and keep moving the chains.
00:31:04And that's what they do.
00:31:06And I don't know that the Texans defense is going to be able to get off the field as easily as they like here.
00:31:13So, yes, no Tyreek Hill.
00:31:16Will Worthy have a couple of opportunities to get those 80-yard two-play touchdowns?
00:31:22Sure. I don't think that will happen here, though.
00:31:25Although Houston's defense does have a habit of giving up that big play, Ben.
00:31:30We saw it again, of course, in the Chargers game.
00:31:33If they give up one or two of those in this game, this game flies over.
00:31:38If they don't, this game stays way under the 41-and-a-half.
00:31:42A quarter of the NFL, eight of 32 NFL teams throughout the regular season,
00:31:47play double-digit amount of their games to the under in the regular season,
00:31:52including both of these teams.
00:31:5410 of 17 games for the Chiefs, under.
00:31:5611 of 17 games for the Texans, under.
00:31:59Alongside the New York Giants, the Texans and the G-Men,
00:32:03the highest under percentage throughout the regular season.
00:32:06We can understand why that total is 41-and-a-hook,
00:32:10but you don't need a lot of a huff fence tomorrow afternoon in Kansas City
00:32:15to push to the over.
00:32:17And by mid-to-late January standards in Kansas City, Missouri,
00:32:21not overly cold tomorrow.
00:32:24Mid-30s, not a ton of wind.
00:32:26That wind chill out there on the plains can often be a little bit precarious.
00:32:32Not necessarily the case as expected for tomorrow afternoon in KCMO.
00:32:38Now we talk the quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud and, of course, Patrick Mahomes.
00:32:44229-and-a-hook, the number for Stroud.
00:32:47247-and-a-half, the number for Mahomes.
00:32:51Who do you think, Joe, of our two signal callers for tomorrow afternoon,
00:32:54has the better chance to go over that passing yards prop?
00:32:59Well, I think just from sheer volume,
00:33:03I do believe Stroud is going to have to throw the ball way more
00:33:08than probably what Patrick Mahomes is going to have to do
00:33:11because I do believe Houston will be playing from behind.
00:33:15And if the running game and mix-in aren't up to par,
00:33:18if he is hurt and limited, then it's going to be all C.J. Stroud.
00:33:22They're going to ask him to drop back 35, 40 times in this game.
00:33:26So just from a volume standpoint,
00:33:29I think he's got a pretty good shot of going over 229-and-a-half here.
00:33:33But, again, the big playability of Mahomes and Worthy
00:33:38and now Hollywood Brown, they can stretch the field.
00:33:41He could also fly over that 247-and-a-half in this one.
00:33:46A lot of people have pointed out Patrick Mahomes has not played
00:33:49in a football game since Christmas, now nearly a month ago,
00:33:53at least three-and-a-half weeks.
00:33:55Will there be rust?
00:33:57I'm not so sure.
00:33:58Kansas City pretty used to this position once again.
00:34:01Joe Mixon's status, as we mentioned, did not practice in full yesterday,
00:34:05listed as questionable.
00:34:07We expect him to play, and he still has a rushing yards prop,
00:34:10but it is working its way down, only 57-and-a-half.
00:34:14He had 25 carries for 106 yards against the Chargers
00:34:18in the opening round of the playoffs.
00:34:20He has been a huge acquisition to this offense.
00:34:25We'll talk some historic numbers on the other side of the break
00:34:28in terms of Travis Kelsey and Houston's Nico Collins
00:34:32as we continue our division around previews on a Football Friday
00:34:36in Hour 2 up next.
00:34:38If you were looking for football, you have come to the right place.
00:34:42We welcome you to Hour 2 on a Football Friday
00:34:45on the early line on Sports Grid.
00:34:47But again, not any regular Football Friday,
00:34:49a division around Football Friday for what is one of, if not the,
00:34:54best weekends of football each and every year
00:34:57in the National Football League.
00:34:59He is Joe Ranieri. I am Ben Stevens.
00:35:02Throughout the entirety of these three hours,
00:35:04we will preview and take a deep dive into every division around matchup.
00:35:08We're talking totals. We're talking spreads.
00:35:11We're talking player props and those individuals
00:35:14that will impact the outcomes of all four games
00:35:17this weekend continuously.
00:35:20So, Joe, let's continue to dive right in.
00:35:23In the opening hour, we focused on our two matchups in the AFC,
00:35:27the marquee matchup to end out division around weekend
00:35:30on Sunday night in Western New York,
00:35:32a game we all expect to hopefully live up to its billing
00:35:36between the Bills and the Ravens
00:35:38and become an instant classic in NFL playoff history right away.
00:35:43Now, we're talking Kansas City,
00:35:45the two-time reigning Super Bowl champions,
00:35:47hosting the Houston Texans,
00:35:49and we dive even deeper into the prop market.
00:35:52Nico Collins of the Texans has the highest receiving yards number
00:35:56for this matchup tomorrow afternoon,
00:35:58kicking at 4.30 p.m. Eastern time.
00:36:0182-and-a-half.
00:36:03But, Joe, it really is worthy.
00:36:05C.J. Stroup last week against the Bolts threw for 282 yards
00:36:09and a touchdown, 122 of those yards to Collins.
00:36:14The touchdown also to Nico Collins,
00:36:16plus 180 price to hit paydirt.
00:36:19And then you look at Travis Kelsey.
00:36:21Again, much like the Chiefs in general,
00:36:24if they're a little bit lackluster at times
00:36:26throughout a regular season,
00:36:28just wait until it is the playoffs.
00:36:31Travis Kelsey is in the business of setting postseason history.
00:36:37He has 1,903 receiving yards in his playoff career,
00:36:41second to Jerry Rice.
00:36:43He has 19 playoff receiving touchdowns,
00:36:46second only behind Jerry Rice.
00:36:49He has 165 postseason receptions.
00:36:52That's the most in NFL playoff history.
00:36:56And he has the highest receiving yards prop
00:36:58for Kansas City tomorrow against Houston.
00:37:02Yeah, well, it feels like Travis Kelsey
00:37:06probably poised to have a big game here.
00:37:10I mean, he has now played in, what, 22 postseason games,
00:37:15including the Super Bowls, right?
00:37:18He has also, I believe, exceeded this number, Ben,
00:37:22of 52-and-a-half, 53-and-a-half.
00:37:25He's exceeded that number in a lot of those.
00:37:30In fact, I believe 18 of the 22 postseason games he's played in,
00:37:34he's gotten more than that,
00:37:36including at least 13 straight to go over that 53-and-a-half.
00:37:42I don't see any reason why we would think that should change here.
00:37:46And I also don't think Nico Collins gets anywhere near 82-and-a-half,
00:37:52considering that the Chiefs secondary have only allowed 83 yards
00:37:58to just four wide receivers all year.
00:38:01That includes the Week 18 game in which they played nobody.
00:38:04But he was targeted 10 times in that first game,
00:38:07and he only got it to 60 yards.
00:38:10They're not going to let Nico Collins beat them deep
00:38:14or yards after the catch here.
00:38:16I think it's a fade of Nico Collins here.
00:38:20And I know we're not expecting a ton of offense, right?
00:38:22Lowest total of the weekend at 41-and-a-half.
00:38:25But some of these numbers are just drastically low.
00:38:27Xavier Worthy has emerged in his rookie year.
00:38:30Hollywood Brown is back and healthy.
00:38:32DeAndre Hopkins not even listed with a receiving yards number in the 30s.
00:38:37They brought Newk in to be a guy that could be trusted
00:38:41in these significant spots.
00:38:43We'll talk more about Travis Kelsey a little bit later on.
00:38:46So that's how this weekend will play out.
00:38:49Our two matchups in the AFC.
00:38:52It starts the entirety of the weekend tomorrow in Arrowhead
00:38:55with a two-time reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs
00:38:59are an eight-and-a-half point favorite against the Houston Texans.
00:39:02It ends in the AFC as well in Western New York on Sunday night,
00:39:07the Bills and the Ravens.
00:39:09Again, the Chiefs, a favorite to win the AFC title, plus 135.
00:39:14Baltimore, second-best price, plus 210.
00:39:17Buffalo, third-best number, only 30 cents behind at plus 240.
00:39:22If the odds hold, Kansas City is going to be
00:39:25at least a slight favorite at home for an AFC championship game,
00:39:29playing in that AFC title game for seven consecutive seasons
00:39:34inside Arrowhead for six of those seven years.
00:39:38Let's turn our attention now over to the NFC.
00:39:41Our first game on Sunday is where we begin.
00:39:45In Philadelphia, six-and-a-half point spread in favor of the Eagles,
00:39:49a total at 44-and-a-hook.
00:39:52Now down to 43-and-a-half from where it was yesterday
00:39:56and back to the opening number.
00:39:58Joe, this line is not necessarily north of a touchdown
00:40:02like both of our games on Saturday,
00:40:05but it also is pretty close to a touchdown.
00:40:09Do you think this game will look more competitive
00:40:12than that spread might indicate for the link on Sunday afternoon?
00:40:16Well, you know, Rams, you certainly hope so here,
00:40:20and I think this is a game that correlates
00:40:24to both of these teams and the under with the total there, Ben.
00:40:30I mean, listen, you are L.A.
00:40:32You're going to be on a short week.
00:40:34You got the weight of the world and an entire city on your shoulders.
00:40:38Unbelievable job in Arizona under all of that stress
00:40:42and all of those conditions.
00:40:44Now Matt Stafford, very experienced, going to have to go on the road
00:40:49and the elements, and by the way, Ben,
00:40:51it doesn't look like it's going to be a great weather day
00:40:53when these two teams play.
00:40:55There are possible rain, snow.
00:40:57That has not been a recipe for success for Matt Stafford over the years.
00:41:03But if anybody can keep this game competitive,
00:41:06well, it's going to have to be the Rams defense here,
00:41:09and both of these teams play extremely the same way, right?
00:41:13They're going to want to run the ball, especially Philadelphia,
00:41:17play great defense, run the ball, own time of possession, and end the game.
00:41:22I don't see that changing in this game here.
00:41:25The question is can the Rams defense, who has improved a lot
00:41:30since we last saw these two play,
00:41:34if they do, I think this game stays woefully under the total
00:41:38unless we get some sort of defensive touchdowns here,
00:41:43which I don't think we will with Stafford.
00:41:45I don't see how we get over this number.
00:41:48I also think you're asking the Eagles to do a lot here
00:41:52to win this by at least a touchdown.
00:41:54Yeah, especially if this game does stay under 43-and-a-half
00:41:59with two brilliant defensive displays from both of these teams
00:42:03last weekend to start off the postseason.
00:42:06Joe, I hear what you're saying about travel logistics
00:42:08and playing outdoors for a team that hails from Los Angeles, California.
00:42:13I'm not overly concerned about the Rams portion,
00:42:16but I do believe being at home for Philadelphia is incredibly favorable,
00:42:21not just home field advantage.
00:42:23The Eagles have been home in their own beds,
00:42:26in their own practice facility, going through the routine
00:42:30for a long time now, week 17, 18, at home,
00:42:35barely played their starters in those two matchups.
00:42:38And then they were at home last weekend as well,
00:42:42quickly dispatching the Green Bay Packers.
00:42:45They have been home for nearly a month at no other point of the season
00:42:49throughout a long and arduous NFL campaign.
00:42:52Are you home for this extended of an amount of time?
00:42:56That, I think, is a big benefit to the Birds.
00:42:59And again, back to that total, 43-and-a-half.
00:43:03The Rams allowed nine points last weekend to the Vikings.
00:43:07The Rams have not allowed double digits in their last four games
00:43:11with full reinforcements in all of their starters out there.
00:43:15Philadelphia, after a 2-2 start this year, has played in 14 games.
00:43:20They've won 13. They've gone under in 10.
00:43:23The reason the Eagles are here and a heavy favorite
00:43:26to advance back to the NFC Championship, Joe,
00:43:29is mainly because of Vic Fangio and that defense.
00:43:32And they got better as the season goes on here.
00:43:36And I expect the defense, both defenses,
00:43:39to be the stars of this game here, Ben.
00:43:42And Philadelphia, 12-2-1 to the under
00:43:45in their last 15 home playoff games.
00:43:49Yeah, that's a very, very heavy trend.
00:43:51We'll talk player prompts and the outcome next.
00:43:54Our first division-around matchup of our doubleheader on Sunday
00:43:58in Philadelphia is an intriguing one.
00:44:00Six-and-a-half points spread in favor of the Birds
00:44:03at home inside Lincoln Financial Field
00:44:06with a total of 43-and-a-half.
00:44:08If you watched the games last week for both of these teams,
00:44:11the defenses were brilliant, shutting down the opposition,
00:44:15mainly for the entirety of the football game.
00:44:17The offenses took advantage when they had to,
00:44:20but they weren't really tasked with doing all that much.
00:44:23As we compare the quarterbacks for this matchup in Philly,
00:44:26Matthew Stafford, the veteran for Los Angeles,
00:44:29Jalen Hurts on the other side for Philadelphia.
00:44:33Joe, who will need to step up the most for their team
00:44:37to win a game and advance to the NFC Championship?
00:44:40Well, if I'm the coaches in this game,
00:44:44on the defensive side, I need you...
00:44:48I need Jalen Hurts to beat me.
00:44:50I do not want Saquon Barkley beating me.
00:44:53So I might sell out a little bit
00:44:56to make sure that Saquon Barkley is under control
00:45:00and doesn't run all over you.
00:45:02And they did a pretty good job against featured backs this year, Ben.
00:45:06I think DeAndre Swift was the only guy
00:45:08that they really allowed to kind of get the edge on him here.
00:45:13I do think they are going to sell out to stop the run,
00:45:16and that's going to force Jalen Hurts
00:45:18to have to throw the ball to beat this team.
00:45:22He looked a little rusty last week here.
00:45:25And the way they like to play
00:45:27isn't dropping him back 30, 35 times in a game, Ben.
00:45:31But I think the Rams are going to try to force that issue
00:45:35and let Jalen Hurts' arm beat them and not the running game.
00:45:39Of course, it was Jalen Hurts in his first action since week number 16.
00:45:44Did not have to do all that much.
00:45:46Three plays after they forced that fumble
00:45:49on the opening kickoff return, he had all day to sit back there
00:45:52connected with Jahan Dotson in the back of the end zone.
00:45:55That's basically all Philadelphia needed.
00:45:5713 of 21, 131 yards, two passing scores for Hurts.
00:46:01Also had 36 on the ground.
00:46:04His rushing yards prop, 39 1⁄2.
00:46:07So maybe it's not the quarterbacks that do lead the wagon.
00:46:10Matthew Stafford under in four straight games he has started.
00:46:14Conveniently, four straight games,
00:46:16Los Angeles has allowed fewer than 10 points in each and every one.
00:46:2033 in total.
00:46:22Three games allowing nine, one game allowing just six.
00:46:26It's going to be a big running back day, Joe,
00:46:28especially on a cold day in Philly.
00:46:31Some snow expected.
00:46:32How much we will see on the Northeast, that remains to be seen.
00:46:36But two running backs that have really carried the load offensively
00:46:39for these teams all year, and especially as of late.
00:46:43Saquon Barkley, nearly a buck 20 on the ground last week
00:46:46against the Packers, his 12th time in 17 games
00:46:50through the century mark this year.
00:46:52Kywin Williams, slightly over this number,
00:46:55but again, a guy that has been tasked with a ton of rush attempts
00:46:59as the Rams have focused things defensively over the last month.
00:47:03Plus 74 and a half.
00:47:05His number 111 and a half is that rushing yards prop for Saquon Barkley.
00:47:11Joe, how critical will it be for both of these offenses come Sunday
00:47:15afternoon to frankly establish the run?
00:47:19Oh, they better, especially in the elements.
00:47:22We know what we're going to get here.
00:47:25And listen,
00:47:26Philadelphia has a clear blueprint on how they like to win games.
00:47:32And they like to win games by owning the time of possession,
00:47:36moving the chain, 16, 17 play drive bands.
00:47:40We have seen it time and time again,
00:47:42which is why their numbers are so ridiculous to the under.
00:47:47Again, 12, 2 and 1 to the under in their last 15 home playoff games.
00:47:51And by the way, Jalen Hurts 5 and 1 to the under in his six playoff games.
00:47:56So they are going to want to control and play their brand of football,
00:48:00which is dominate in the trenches, run, block, blow guys off the ball.
00:48:06The Rams defense is going to have their hands full.
00:48:09And if you're Williams, you need to get all.
00:48:13I mean,
00:48:14that Rams offensive line has been a problem all year long with injuries,
00:48:17Ben,
00:48:18but they need Kyron Williams to have himself a day because they cannot allow
00:48:22Matt Stafford to just sit back there and allow this defense of Philadelphia
00:48:27to come after him time and time again.
00:48:29So they need to have a threat of a running game.
00:48:32They need some early success in this game.
00:48:34If they're going to have any chance of actually winning this game and pulling
00:48:38off the upset in Philly.
00:48:40And Joe,
00:48:41three of our four division around matchups feature a rematch from the regular
00:48:44season,
00:48:45including these two teams week number 12 on a Sunday night in LA,
00:48:49the Rams,
00:48:50since a dreadful one for start were an underdog five times with all of their
00:48:55starters out there,
00:48:56including Matthew Stafford.
00:48:58They have won four games outright.
00:49:00They have lost and not covered once it was that Sunday night game against the
00:49:05Eagles.
00:49:06The reason I draw back to that regular season matchup,
00:49:09the Eagle scored 37 points.
00:49:11The Rams,
00:49:12a very different defense from that point in the year to where they are now,
00:49:15but say Kwon Barkley had a career and record shattering day,
00:49:1926 carries 255 yards,
00:49:23two touchdowns,
00:49:24both of Barkley's rushing scores,
00:49:2670 plus yards in terms of the distance.
00:49:30He had to go to hit painter.
00:49:33Of course,
00:49:34I don't need to tell any of you this.
00:49:36And certainly Chris Shula,
00:49:37LA's DC understands that can't happen on Sunday.
00:49:41If the Rams are going to keep this game close.
00:49:44Now we go to the receivers.
00:49:46Will the real Cooper cup,
00:49:47please stand up.
00:49:4941 and a half is receiving yards.
00:49:51Prop.
00:49:52Puka Nukuah state under his number a week ago against Minnesota.
00:49:57Tyler Higbee,
00:49:58actually the leading receiver for LA expects to play despite having been in
00:50:03the hospital Monday night after the win against the Vikings.
00:50:07Will AJ Brown be reading or go over his receiving yards prop that also a
00:50:12conversation piece for Sunday.
00:50:15Well,
00:50:16I think he'll definitely be reading at some particular point one way or the
00:50:19other.
00:50:20I think Dallas Goddard is interesting too,
00:50:22because I believe there,
00:50:23you know,
00:50:24the Rams defensively,
00:50:25I've struggled a little bit here with past catching tight ends.
00:50:29And again,
00:50:30given the way that Philadelphia likes to play,
00:50:33that's a low number.
00:50:35It's a low reception number two as well.
00:50:37Three and a half.
00:50:38I could see him having,
00:50:39you know,
00:50:40five or six catches in this game for sure.
00:50:42And then it's all about Puka Nukuah and Cooper cup.
00:50:46Isn't it?
00:50:47How many times can they get them?
00:50:49The ball in space will determine how many points they get.
00:50:53Yeah,
00:50:54no doubt about it.
00:50:55Puka Nukuah stayed under that number.
00:50:56Again,
00:50:57they didn't have to do much offensively.
00:50:58Did LA against the Vikings to win that game on Monday night in Glendale,
00:51:03Arizona,
00:51:04Puka Nukuah's rushing yards,
00:51:05prop two and a half,
00:51:07which he went over last week.
00:51:09Shout out to Joe Frizo,
00:51:10our producer and an astute handicapper there to Detroit on a Saturday night.
00:51:15A division around football Friday live right here on the early line on sports
00:51:20grid.
00:51:21We have talked about three of our four division around matchups this weekend,
00:51:25everybody trying to earn a spot at a conference championship game.
00:51:29The Detroit lions hoping to continuously make history in the motor city.
00:51:35The lions last year,
00:51:36one,
00:51:37a division in the NFL for the first time in three decades,
00:51:40thus hosted a playoff game in Detroit for the first time in 30 years as well.
00:51:45One,
00:51:46a playoff game for the first time in 32 seasons played in the NFC title game
00:51:51for the first time in that same span 32 years.
00:51:55And now Joe are the favorites to play and win a Superbowl.
00:52:01That would be a first in lions franchise history as well.
00:52:06Now Detroit as an NFL organization,
00:52:08one NFL championships back in the late 1950s,
00:52:11but the lions have never even played in a Superbowl expected to chart uncharted
00:52:18territory starting tomorrow night as the one seed for the first time ever in
00:52:23franchise history,
00:52:24hosting the commanders at home and eight and a half points spread in favor of
00:52:29the lions,
00:52:30the highest total of their vision around weekend at 55 and a hook based on those
00:52:36numbers.
00:52:37What are you expecting for Saturday night in the motor city?
00:52:42It's so hard with these two teams here,
00:52:45right?
00:52:46Obviously Detroit at home has been,
00:52:49it's been a wagon,
00:52:50Ben.
00:52:51It's been an ATM machine with them scoring points.
00:52:53Their team totals have been great.
00:52:55The overs have been great.
00:52:56They cover numbers like nobody's business.
00:53:00And they're even better in the first half of games because they usually just
00:53:04boat race teams.
00:53:05And that's the end of it.
00:53:06The thing with Washington is that I don't know any team,
00:53:10Ben,
00:53:11that I have seen ever that has won games in the final 60 seconds,
00:53:17like Washington has with a rookie quarterback this year.
00:53:21I mean,
00:53:22it has been absolutely mind blowing how they have managed to figure out to win
00:53:28games,
00:53:29which again,
00:53:30you got to learn how to do that sometimes because the fact that you have a
00:53:33rookie quarterback that has come in in Jaden Daniels and done this where
00:53:38Washington has nine wins by six or fewer points.
00:53:43That's the most than NFL history by the way.
00:53:46And they have six wins when tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds of
00:53:51regulation or an overtime this season.
00:53:54That's two more than any team since 2000,
00:53:57including the playoffs.
00:53:58Again,
00:53:59let me repeat that.
00:54:00They have six wins when tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds of the game
00:54:05or overtime this season,
00:54:07Ben,
00:54:08they are the definition of the cardiac kids here.
00:54:11I don't know how you bet against that.
00:54:13It feels like,
00:54:14man,
00:54:15just give me the points and let them do what they usually do in the final 60
00:54:18seconds of the game.
00:54:20And Joe,
00:54:21the number would tell you,
00:54:22it feels like much like our first game on Saturday with the other one seat in
00:54:26the other conference,
00:54:27the chiefs in the AFC.
00:54:28This is the time a team that played on wild card weekend actually goes up
00:54:33against the best of the best and falls short,
00:54:36but the commanders have defied even the final seconds of a game to come back
00:54:42and win all year long with a rookie quarterback in Jaden Daniels and a first
00:54:46year head coach in Washington,
00:54:48Dan Quinn,
00:54:49the commanders defied logic last week as well.
00:54:53Yeah.
00:54:54The Rams weren't necessarily truly at home and both the Texans and the Rams
00:54:58were slight underdogs in their home settings,
00:55:01but the commanders were the only team to win on the road in our six matchups
00:55:06during wild card weekend outright as a three point underdog against the
00:55:12Buccaneers with Jaden Daniels,
00:55:15who became the second ever quarterback in NFL playoff history to lead a road
00:55:22win and not have his team turn the football over or punt the football,
00:55:27which is going to be a big story for this game as well.
00:55:32But Detroit,
00:55:33when they see a minus in front of their name has been darn good.
00:55:3711 and five against the spread for a second consecutive year booked as the
00:55:42favorite side 49 and 22 ATS with Dan Campbell as the head coach in the Motor
00:55:48City.
00:55:49That is a cover percentage of 69%.
00:55:51Nice.
00:55:52It is also super nice because the Lions are the only team in the NFL in the
00:55:56last four years covering in more than 62% of their games and they're covering
00:56:02in 69%.
00:56:05Can the commanders continue to defy odds?
00:56:08They've been an underdog four times since week number four.
00:56:12They are two one and one against the number with two outright victories
00:56:17straight up.
00:56:18The only non cover against the Eagles on a short week back in week number
00:56:2411.
00:56:25There is so much to talk about in this game tomorrow night in Detroit,
00:56:29including the highest total of the weekend at 55 and a hook.
00:56:33We'll do that up now.
00:56:3455 and a half for a division around playoff matchup with a spot in an NFC
00:56:41championship game.
00:56:42Are you nuts?
00:56:43Well,
00:56:44it's inside tomorrow night on a Saturday in Detroit.
00:56:47Between two really good scoring offenses,
00:56:50including the best scoring offense in the NFL Detroit who average better than
00:56:5533 points per game throughout the regular season.
00:56:59So Joe,
00:57:00when you look at that total of 55 and a hook,
00:57:03is it too high or does it feel fitting for tomorrow night's matchup in the
00:57:07Motor City?
00:57:08It certainly feels fitting been given what we know about these two teams and
00:57:15what we have seen.
00:57:16And let's face it,
00:57:17Dan Quinn showed us last week,
00:57:19Ben,
00:57:20that,
00:57:21you know,
00:57:22the commanders went that entire game against Tampa,
00:57:23never punting ever.
00:57:25So here that,
00:57:26you know,
00:57:27this is,
00:57:28that means a lot of going for it on fourth down,
00:57:30right?
00:57:31That means taking chances.
00:57:32And we already know Dan Campbell does this.
00:57:34You got to love both.
00:57:35Oh,
00:57:36season this game with Kingsbury for Washington and Ben Johnson.
00:57:39Therefore Detroit.
00:57:41These are two guys that they are going to have a great game plan to go out
00:57:46and score points.
00:57:47But having said that it's a playoff game,
00:57:50Ben,
00:57:51and we've already seen what the unders are in the playoffs thus far.
00:57:55Right.
00:57:56And I don't know it.
00:57:57Listen,
00:57:58you're telling me that you expect Detroit to win this game by margin.
00:58:01And if they're going to cover this kind of number,
00:58:03well,
00:58:04that means Washington is not having a whole lot of success offensively here.
00:58:09So I do think that the commanders are the value play here,
00:58:14getting that many points.
00:58:15And if that's the case,
00:58:17man,
00:58:18if I think Washington can cover,
00:58:19I got to play the under band.
00:58:21It's correlated to the under.
00:58:22There's no way that I think they keep it close in this game goes over.
00:58:25Joe.
00:58:27I think you need a picture perfect roadmap to get to 55 and a half and push
00:58:31over that number.
00:58:33There can be no speed bumps.
00:58:35And we know these two teams and these two head coaches and what that
00:58:39mentality is fourth and two from your opponents,
00:58:4222 yard line,
00:58:43instead of taking three points at a 39 yard field goal,
00:58:47you're probably going for it.
00:58:49If you convert great,
00:58:50a touchdown might be on the horizon.
00:58:53If you miss,
00:58:54you just wasted three points,
00:58:56which could cost you a game could be crucial for the spread,
00:58:59but Joe,
00:59:00more than anything,
00:59:01I think it is heavily important for that total.
00:59:04If you think this game pushes to the over,
00:59:06knowing how aggressive both of these teams are,
00:59:09you need fourth down conversions at a very high point and you need them to
00:59:13result in seven.
00:59:15That's how this game,
00:59:16I think factors into the 55 and a half.
00:59:19I also think Joe,
00:59:20in terms of big picture narrative,
00:59:22moving forward throughout a post season,
00:59:24what is most important to me when they lie in Superbowl ticket is what do
00:59:30we get out of that Detroit defense healthier who played in a game also very
00:59:35playoff,
00:59:36like at home in the regular season finale against the Vikings with a total
00:59:40of 56 and a half.
00:59:41One of the highest numbers we had seen in five years in the national
00:59:45football league and that Detroit defensive performance.
00:59:48I think we instilled Joe in a lot of people fake the lions,
00:59:52despite the notable injuries that have been significant can make a deep
00:59:56playoff run,
00:59:57allowing just nine points.
00:59:59Jayden Daniels is better than that of Sam Donald.
01:00:01I understand that.
01:00:03But what does Aaron Glenn's group do on Saturday night?
01:00:06I think that could be a huge story,
01:00:07not just for this game,
01:00:08but maybe the remainder of the post season.
01:00:11Jayden Daniels is better though,
01:00:13then Sam Donald and he will be expected to carry Washington to a close and
01:00:18competitive game to 34 and a half.
01:00:20His passing yards prop 54 and a half is his rushing yards number.
01:00:25It is the highest for that of the commanders were outside of him.
01:00:29Austin Eckler,
01:00:30Brian Robinson,
01:00:31jr.
01:00:32Have not been able to put up much on the ground as of late to 71 and a
01:00:36half.
01:00:37The number for Jared golf,
01:00:38two and a half passing touchdowns in a game that features a total of 55
01:00:42and a half.
01:00:43We are expecting a ton of scoring from the league's best scoring offense.
01:00:48Well,
01:00:49that rushing yards number for Jayden Daniels is important because
01:00:55that's the only way they've been able to run the ball lately.
01:00:58Ben,
01:00:59if you've noticed,
01:01:00right,
01:01:01Robinson,
01:01:02nowhere to be found.
01:01:03They have not gotten a whole lot from their running back position here.
01:01:07It has been Jayden Daniels magic,
01:01:09him being able to make something out of nothing.
01:01:12So I'd even go far to say this.
01:01:15I think his ability to get up and over that number has a lot to do with
01:01:19their ability.
01:01:20Maybe to even sneak in the back door here and get a cover in this one.
01:01:25He is that elusive.
01:01:27He's done it enough times.
01:01:29Now the moment's not going to be too big.
01:01:31And guess what?
01:01:32You know,
01:01:33it used to be the lions were the laughing stock,
01:01:35right?
01:01:36They were never taken seriously.
01:01:37Dan Campbell and his group.
01:01:39It would,
01:01:40they were always the,
01:01:41the underdog.
01:01:42Well,
01:01:43now they're not the underdog.
01:01:44Ben,
01:01:45they are expected to win and win big at home.
01:01:49And oh yeah.
01:01:50Win a Superbowl.
01:01:51Now that's a big role reversal.
01:01:54And you got a Washington team and Dan Quinn,
01:01:56who's playing with house money here,
01:01:58which makes them very dangerous in this spot.
01:02:01But Jayden Daniels is gotta go over that number for them to have a chance.
01:02:05I think he's got to clear all three of the numbers.
01:02:08You see there,
01:02:09even money to the over of one and a half passing touchdowns did throw
01:02:13multiple last week on the road against the Buccaneers.
01:02:16And I mentioned,
01:02:17he has the highest rushing yards prop for his Washington side,
01:02:20Brian Robinson,
01:02:21jr.
01:02:2236 and a half.
01:02:23Now,
01:02:24Austin Eckler,
01:02:25also a huge part of the passing attack for the commanders,
01:02:28but just 21 and a half on the ground.
01:02:30The story in terms of backfields,
01:02:32Joe,
01:02:33for this game,
01:02:34that would be Jameer Gibbs in David Montgomery.
01:02:37We expect Montgomery to make his return,
01:02:39miss the final three games of the regular season for Detroit and in
01:02:43Montgomery's three game absence.
01:02:45It wasn't Sonic that was needed.
01:02:47It was knuckles Jameer Gibbs,
01:02:49at least 154 scrimmage yards in each of the three games without
01:02:54Montgomery scored,
01:02:56at least a single touchdown in all three capped off by the performance
01:03:00of his young career.
01:03:01So far,
01:03:02a four total touchdown game in that huge win over the Vikings to
01:03:06quench this one seed and to be in this spot with Montgomery back in
01:03:11the fold,
01:03:12but maybe not a hundred percent healthy Joe,
01:03:15how do you believe Ben Johnson coordinates the offense featuring those two
01:03:19backs tomorrow night?
01:03:21I think you're going to get what you have gotten here.
01:03:24I mean,
01:03:25listen,
01:03:26they have been writing Jameer Gibbs now over the last month since
01:03:28Montgomery went down,
01:03:29right?
01:03:30They have not shied away from giving him the ball,
01:03:33but I do think David Montgomery inside the 10 yard line is an
01:03:38interesting choice.
01:03:39In fact,
01:03:40I wouldn't be shocked to see both of them out on the field at the
01:03:43same time,
01:03:44certainly in red zone opportunity.
01:03:46So I do think David Montgomery is going to have a opportunity here,
01:03:50Ben,
01:03:51to get some carries and get some things done.
01:03:53But you know,
01:03:54Jameer Gibbs has been the workhorse and given the injury concerns with
01:03:58Montgomery,
01:03:59you ride with what got you there,
01:04:01but don't be shocked if David Montgomery finds the end zone here.
01:04:06More than a 35 yard gap between their two rushing yards props,
01:04:10but you can see both are heavily favored to find the end zone.
01:04:13Jameer Gibbs at minus two 40,
01:04:15a ridiculous number,
01:04:16but the game does feature a total of 55 and a half points.
01:04:20Montgomery though,
01:04:21even minus one 65,
01:04:23Amin Ross,
01:04:24a Brown minus one 44 Detroit,
01:04:27the best scoring option for Washington.
01:04:31That's Terry McCord at plus one 30,
01:04:34Jaden Daniels,
01:04:35second best price at plus one 60 career year for McLaurin,
01:04:39a lot of production from everybody for Detroit and Deami Brown,
01:04:44a big factor in this commander's passing attack.
01:04:47The last few weeks for cliff Kingsbury and Washington,
01:04:50Joe,
01:04:51if you had to pick a guy out of a plethora of options through the air,
01:04:55who gets your attention?
01:04:57It's a mon Saint Brown period.
01:04:59The guy does not drop passes.
01:05:01The over six and a half receptions.
01:05:03I have no problem.
01:05:04No problem.
01:05:05Anytime.
01:05:06Touchdown.
01:05:07Yeah,
01:05:08I think for sure he is going to be poised for a,
01:05:11another big game when they need it the most.
01:05:14And Terry McLaurin,
01:05:15the go-to guy.
01:05:16Yeah.
01:05:17Why not?
01:05:18Ben,
01:05:19if he's going to do it,
01:05:20he's going to do it in a big way.
01:05:21He can probably get over 68 and a half yards in one play,
01:05:23by the way.
01:05:25Again,
01:05:26I think they're going to need that to be the case to stay in this game,
01:05:29to force it,
01:05:30to be a high scoring affair that the odds expect.
01:05:33I'm in Ross.
01:05:34Saint Brown did not score in the first two games of the year for
01:05:36Detroit,
01:05:37then scored a touchdown in a straight,
01:05:39then did not score in three in a row.
01:05:41Now has scored in three of the last four,
01:05:44did not score against Minnesota,
01:05:45but still had six grabs for 77 yards.
01:05:48A huge component of that Lions offense.
01:05:51Now we'll talk beyond division around weekend.
01:05:54It is division around weekend in the national football league.
01:05:58You have heard us say it a few times,
01:06:00one of the best weekends of football,
01:06:02each and every season,
01:06:03because you have the best of the best,
01:06:05the cream rising to the top competing for spots in the biggest games of
01:06:09the season.
01:06:10That includes next weekend conference championship weekend.
01:06:14And that should be a part of your conversation for how you see things
01:06:18playing out in these four match-ups in the division around,
01:06:21what would it mean for a conference championship game?
01:06:25What would it mean for a run to new Orleans and a birth in Superbowl
01:06:2959? We start with the AFC.
01:06:32We'll get to the NFC before we round out this second hour,
01:06:36hypothetical AFC championship game odds. Again,
01:06:40the chiefs are an eight and a half point favorite against the Texans.
01:06:43I think everybody expects,
01:06:45even if the Texans keep the game within margin,
01:06:47Casey does enough has enough in its playoff pedigree to earn a spot in
01:06:53the AFC championship game for a seventh straight year.
01:06:57The question really Joe is who would they see in that AFC title matchup?
01:07:02Would it be the Ravens and ever so slight favorite in Buffalo on Sunday
01:07:06night or the builds holding serve at home.
01:07:09And you can see right there,
01:07:11even if it is Kansas city at home,
01:07:14the chiefs are only going to be an ever so slight favorite against both
01:07:18Baltimore and Buffalo.
01:07:20Yeah. And I could absolutely see the,
01:07:24the chiefs getting money quickly to when that opened up and I don't think
01:07:29it would ever get to three band.
01:07:32I don't think it would get through a field goal,
01:07:34but it does feel like either way,
01:07:37whether it's the Ravens or the bells it does feel like the chiefs would be
01:07:41and maintain the favorite role there.
01:07:46Listen to Texans.
01:07:47Ravens is interesting since we've seen it,
01:07:49that would probably be double digits and the Texans bills having to go to
01:07:54orchard park.
01:07:55Yeah, they should also get to double digits.
01:07:58So assuming the Texans don't advance,
01:08:02I think it's going to be interesting where that number lies.
01:08:06Given the fact that the bills on a neutral field are being priced as if
01:08:10they'd be a field goal underdog right now.
01:08:14And I mean, look at that. You gotta be kidding me.
01:08:17Are the Ravens that much better to bills, but they're not,
01:08:20they're not better than one and a half against the chiefs.
01:08:23Is that really what the market is telling us right now?
01:08:26And Joe,
01:08:27it's a closer distinction in the money line prices for those early forecast
01:08:31spreads for the AFC championship game,
01:08:33the Ravens in Kansas city against the chiefs that it is for the division
01:08:38around matchup with Baltimore as an ever so slight road favorite in Western
01:08:42New York.
01:08:43I don't mean this as a shot at the Texans or to overlook Houston by any
01:08:48means,
01:08:49but if Houston were to play spoiler to Kansas city when a game in Arrowhead
01:08:54to play in an AFC championship game,
01:08:57you would almost think their luck would not run out that they have kind of
01:09:01defied those odds.
01:09:02And thus they would be around that favor that spread for an AFC
01:09:07championship game.
01:09:08And that number would probably work its way down.
01:09:10You would expect that the Texans can slay the chiefs.
01:09:13Why couldn't they be anybody?
01:09:15Maybe that would be the thought,
01:09:17but the real conversation is Joe,
01:09:19because again,
01:09:20Kansas city is an eight and a half point favorite against the Texans tomorrow
01:09:24to kick off divisional weekend that Kansas city is going to win that game
01:09:28and Casey.
01:09:29Yes,
01:09:30has been a little bit lackluster at times and it's for 16 games this year,
01:09:34winning 15 of them,
01:09:36but only by an average margin of 6.1 points per game eighth best in the NFL
01:09:41that maybe this is the year Kansas city does not stand atop the AFC.
01:09:46I don't think either of us expect that to be the case at least until
01:09:50entering next weekend.
01:09:52So look at these numbers right now,
01:09:54the chiefs plus one 35 to win the AFC crown.
01:09:57Once again,
01:09:58they've played in an AFC championship game,
01:10:01six consecutive seasons.
01:10:03The Ravens had that second best place.
01:10:05The bills 30 cents back at plus two 40.
01:10:09Again,
01:10:10the money line numbers for a potential matchup in Arrowhead for the chiefs
01:10:14against either the Ravens or the bills is minus one,
01:10:1810 for Casey against Baltimore minus one Oh six.
01:10:22That is it.
01:10:23A four cent difference for the Ravens minus one,
01:10:2718 for Casey against Buffalo,
01:10:30even money plus 100 on the bill.
01:10:33So if you are convinced that Buffalo and or Baltimore,
01:10:37whoever you think has a better shot of winning the final game of the
01:10:41divisional round is going to advance the AFC championship.
01:10:45It would be worth a bet.
01:10:47Joe,
01:10:48in my estimation now to wager on one of those numbers to win an AFC
01:10:52championship game,
01:10:53despite the fact it is a toss up on Sunday evening in Western New York.
01:10:58I agree,
01:10:59Ben and I wouldn't even stop there.
01:11:01I'd also look at,
01:11:02you know,
01:11:03the exact forecast to about whether you think it's the,
01:11:06not only do you think the Ravens win the AFC,
01:11:08but you think the Ravens end up beating the Detroit lions or the Philadelphia
01:11:13Eagles.
01:11:14And I would ride it all the way through Ben.
01:11:16I would just ladder it.
01:11:18Whoever it is,
01:11:19you think is coming out of the AFC.
01:11:21I happen to think they're winning the Superbowl.
01:11:24So at that point,
01:11:25Ben,
01:11:26I'm laddering everything.
01:11:27I'm taking the AFC price,
01:11:28the Superbowl price,
01:11:29and the exact forecast price on who I think they're going to beat out of the
01:11:33NFC,
01:11:34which feels like it's also a two horse race here now.
01:11:38Yeah.
01:11:39And listen,
01:11:40I think it's a really great point as well,
01:11:41right?
01:11:42There's a lot of thought that this division around matchup in Orchard Park
01:11:45on Sunday night is the de facto AFC championship game.
01:11:50But we have looked past Kansas city,
01:11:52a ton at times last year,
01:11:55had to go on the road for the first time to win an AFC championship,
01:11:58check and check.
01:12:00And they still won a second consecutive Superbowl.
01:12:03I will say this though.
01:12:05Casey is trying to make history.
01:12:07They are now the ninth team in NFL history to win back to back Lombardi
01:12:11trophies.
01:12:12The previous eight,
01:12:13nobody has played even in a third consecutive Superbowl and only three
01:12:19have reached a conference championship game.
01:12:22So Casey is trying to defy that.
01:12:24On this dynastic run and Joe and a game against either Baltimore or
01:12:29Buffalo,
01:12:30it would be a razor thin edge for who would win the AFC championship.
01:12:36Yeah.
01:12:37It's going to be razor thin either way,
01:12:40Ben it's it's going to be,
01:12:42I think a very,
01:12:45very good.
01:12:47I don't think there's going to be any surprises.
01:12:49Let's go that way.
01:12:50If you're looking for a big dog or a,
01:12:52or a big bomb,
01:12:53I don't think we're getting it the rest of the way through.
01:12:57Yeah,
01:12:58I would agree.
01:12:59And I think that would be the case in the NFC.
01:13:01And again,
01:13:02it might be worth a bet even on the chiefs price,
01:13:05because then you could have an exact middle next weekend with very little
01:13:09return necessary with how close those money lines are expected to be AFC
01:13:14to NFC.
01:13:15The hypothetical lines for NFC championship games in our potential matchups
01:13:20for a weekend from now,
01:13:22again,
01:13:23it's a wrinkle that you must know down to the final four in each conference
01:13:27for the divisional round.
01:13:29Here are the hypothetical numbers.
01:13:30And again,
01:13:31what we expect to happen with two rather hefty spreads for the division
01:13:36around Detroit,
01:13:37more than a touchdown favorite lane,
01:13:39eight and a half at home on a Saturday night against the commanders.
01:13:42The Eagles are under a touchdown,
01:13:44but pretty close to a touchdown,
01:13:46a six and a half point favorite on Sunday afternoon at the link against the
01:13:50LA Rams.
01:13:51So what we have often expected Joe in what is felt at times like a two team
01:13:55race in the NFC would be the lions in the Eagles,
01:13:59the one versus the two for an NFC championship at stake next Sunday in the
01:14:06motor city,
01:14:07the lions would be a short two and a half point home favorite.
01:14:10Favorite.
01:14:11If the Rams pull the upset and we see Matthew Stafford returned to Detroit
01:14:14once again for a second consecutive playoff run,
01:14:17nearly a touchdown in favor of the lions.
01:14:20If the commander somehow pull off the upset tomorrow night in Detroit,
01:14:25they would be nearly a touchdown underdog against their divisional mate in a
01:14:29conference championship matchup against the Eagles.
01:14:32And the Rams would even be an ever so slight favorite with home field
01:14:36advantage against Washington and NFC championship game that frankly we don't
01:14:41really expect to see.
01:14:43I think the focus Joe should be at the very top one versus two Detroit hosting
01:14:48Philadelphia,
01:14:49basically as the odds have told us for the last two months or so.
01:14:54Yeah.
01:14:55I mean,
01:14:56listen,
01:14:57history tells us Ben,
01:14:58when you take a big lock here,
01:14:59that number one,
01:15:00number two,
01:15:01usually collision course or at least the number one seed.
01:15:05Uh,
01:15:06in all likelihood,
01:15:07we'll be hosting with a chance to go to the soup.
01:15:10Although it was a couple of years ago,
01:15:12I believe it was the first time since 2009 where road teams actually took the
01:15:18round,
01:15:19the divisional round by winning three of the four games when we got to this
01:15:23point,
01:15:24it's been all chalk the last couple of years,
01:15:26but there is some recent history where maybe we shouldn't sleep on an outright
01:15:31underdog.
01:15:32I don't think it's going to happen.
01:15:34While it probably will happen with Buffalo,
01:15:37but I don't consider them to be a dog of any sort.
01:15:40Uh,
01:15:41but the question is,
01:15:42can we get a Rams or a commander's team?
01:15:45That is,
01:15:46uh,
01:15:47that is going to be playing for a championship.
01:15:49It would,
01:15:50if it's going to happen,
01:15:51I think it's going to happen on this side of the bracket here,
01:15:54Ben.
01:15:55So,
01:15:56uh,
01:15:57the Rams at the lions,
01:15:58I don't think we're going to get two of them,
01:16:00but commanders or Rams pick your poison.
01:16:02Those two teams could absolutely play spoiler here this weekend.
01:16:07Yeah,
01:16:08it would be really interesting to see that be the case because Joe,
01:16:11it doesn't feel like a toss up between the Ravens and the bills,
01:16:14but if one of those teams made a conference championship,
01:16:17whoever wins at a pickup game in Western New York,
01:16:20it wouldn't be overly shocking.
01:16:21If we saw the commanders in the Rams,
01:16:24that would certainly surprise some folks.
01:16:26I think even if we got one upset outright,
01:16:29maybe not a close game within a margin of six and a half in favor of
01:16:33Philadelphia or eight and a half in favor of Detroit,
01:16:36that would be a very different story.
01:16:39You look at those NFC championship odds.
01:16:41Again,
01:16:42it really is a tier of two and a battle of one versus two,
01:16:46the lions,
01:16:47even money plus 100,
01:16:48the Eagles plus one 70.
01:16:51And that would be a two and a half point spread in favor of Detroit next
01:16:55weekend at Ford field.
01:16:58But if you think an upset might potentially be out there,
01:17:01some very juicy numbers on the Rams at plus six 50 in the commanders,
01:17:06even in four digits at 11 to one.
01:17:08And now would be the time to bet one of those two teams,
01:17:12man.
01:17:13Now would be a good time because those numbers will be significantly less
01:17:18if one of them actually does the unthinkable and wins as a underdog here.
01:17:24And listen,
01:17:25under a touchdown and a divisional round,
01:17:27I don't think the Rams is that crazy at plus six 50.
01:17:30If we're being honest here,
01:17:31it's not like Nick Sirianni and the,
01:17:34and the Eagles provide,
01:17:36you know,
01:17:37this long history of playoff and Superbowl success.
01:17:40So they're not the chiefs Rams might be alive this weekend.
01:17:44Be careful.
01:17:45I think there's an argument to be made.
01:17:47The Rams have the most playoff success of any of our four teams remaining
01:17:52in the NFC.
01:17:53The Eagles made a Superbowl two seasons ago,
01:17:56trying to get back to that peak.
01:17:58The Rams won a Superbowl three years ago with Sean McVay and Matthew
01:18:03Stafford.
01:18:04Can they get the Rams back to there with a couple of upsets along that
01:18:08path?
01:18:09Geronery,
01:18:10we have to say goodbye to you here.
01:18:11We appreciate the time on this football Friday,
01:18:13my friend,
01:18:14enjoy a sensational division around.
01:18:16Thank you for all the handicapping acumen on this Friday.
01:18:20Yeah.
01:18:21Let's let's cast some tickets here.
01:18:23It might be a little chalky,
01:18:24but there could be a bomb available.
01:18:26I think on that NFC side.
01:18:28So tread carefully.

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