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00:00To Dallas and Jerry World, we go for the Cotton Bowl between the in-state team, the Texas Longhorns, taking on the Ohio State Buckeyes.
00:09The Buckeyes are the eighth seed. They were not expected to be here, but maybe they are.
00:16Ohio State, a five-and-a-half-point favorite for this game against the Longhorns, who entered the college football playoff quarterfinal round as the national championship favorites.
00:27That's now Ohio State, who is a rather hefty favorite against the Longhorns.
00:31Again, I think the story of this game initially is the spread, that we can get into the key matchups that will dictate the actual outcome.
00:39When this was one of the projected hypothetical matchups for the Cotton Bowl, Ohio State was an early point-and-a-half, small-money line favorite against the Longhorns.
00:49And then Texas struggles in double overtime against Arizona State, escaping with a victory as a two-touchdown favorite.
00:57And Ohio State absolutely routes Oregon in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.
01:02Line opened back up for the actual matchup at four-and-a-half, and has only grown in favor of the Buckeyes.
01:10Susana, what do you make of this five-and-a-half-point spread now in favor of Ohio State?
01:16I mean, it's a tough call, it really is.
01:19I mean, it seems like a bigger number than you would have expected for a national semifinal.
01:23Ohio State is a wagon right now, and there may be some recency bias baked into this thing because of what they've done in their last two games,
01:29and how they dismantled the, you know, quote, number one team in the country in Oregon.
01:34But we kind of all knew that Oregon wasn't the best team in the land, but that's neither here nor there.
01:38You know, you look at what Ohio State has done, it's hard to deny that they are in full control right now,
01:42and they look like the team that's going to be the prohibitive national champion.
01:46Still, I'm not about to disrespect Texas, and really, when you look at this matchup, what stands out to me,
01:52and I can't believe when this total was posted what it was.
01:57Did we forget these have been, all season long, by a considerable margin, the number one and number two defenses in the country?
02:03And all of a sudden, we think that they are not going to be the number one and number two defenses in the country in a game that's this tight?
02:09You may hate this play, Ben, and part of me hates it myself, but a little counterculture here.
02:15First half under.
02:16Like, when I look at this, and the way this game goes, it's about game script and sheer just math.
02:22If we're going to get 10 or 11 possessions in the first half, to get over 27 and a half, which is what FanDuel has,
02:28I'm not sure if it's still there, was what they had for a better part of the week.
02:31You're going to need, without getting three touchdowns, you're going to need five or six scores, right?
02:38And so, I know Ohio State has opened up all these games with touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown,
02:43but am I to believe all of a sudden Texas and that defense is going to get walked all over?
02:48Maybe they will.
02:49I don't think it's happening.
02:51Do I think there's some regression coming for Will Howard?
02:53Maybe.
02:54Do I think that the guy that played against Michigan, who went 19-33 for 175 yards, may show up more than the guy that played against Tennessee and Oregon?
03:02Yeah, I think so.
03:03The guy that played against Penn State, 16-24 for 182 yards, does that guy show up against this level of defense?
03:09Yeah, I kind of think so.
03:11So, I mean, I'm just playing the math here that if we get two or three field goals in the first half,
03:17you're going to need three touchdowns to get over this first-half number.
03:20And I just don't know that there's enough possessions on both sides here.
03:23What you have to worry about with this bet is that there's no quick score.
03:27There's no 80-yard touchdown strike.
03:28There's no 75-yard touchdown run that happens.
03:31If that happens, the thing's probably dead on arrival.
03:33But if these teams have to drive down the field and the defense is holding, set up for field goals here,
03:38I don't know if I like the full game under because I think the adjustments in the second half can be good.
03:43Plus, I never trust Steve Sarkeesian for a full four quarters, ever.
03:47Not in a big game.
03:47He only gets half of my money, and the first half is usually his best half.
03:51So, I think there could be more scoring in the second half, but I think the first half, we stay under here.