Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) dikabarkan tengah mempertimbangkan untuk memangkas besar-besaran kuota produksi nikel guna mendongkrak harga bahan baku baterai itu di pasaran. Sejumlah sumber melansir, Kementerian ESDM berencana untuk mengurangi kuota produksi bijih nikel menjadi 150 juta ton pada tahun depan. Jumlah tersebut turun signifikan dibandingkan kuota tahun ini yang sebesar 272 juta ton.
Sebelumnya, Direktur Jenderal Mineral dan Batu Bara (Minerba) Kementerian ESDM Tri Winarno telah memberi sinyal bahwa kementerian bakal membatasi produksi produk nikel demi menjaga harga tetap tinggi di pasaran global. Tri mengatakan, pembatasan produk nikel kian relevan di tengah tingginya konflik geopolitik saat ini.
Adapun, harga nikel global anjlok sebesar 45% pada 2023 dan tak pulih hingga tahun ini. Melonjaknya pasokan dari Indonesia, yang kini menyumbang lebih dari separuh produksi nikel dunia, dan pertumbuhan permintaan yang lebih lambat dari perkiraan telah membebani pasar dan memaksa beberapa produsen di negara lain untuk menghentikan operasinya.
Sebelumnya, Direktur Jenderal Mineral dan Batu Bara (Minerba) Kementerian ESDM Tri Winarno telah memberi sinyal bahwa kementerian bakal membatasi produksi produk nikel demi menjaga harga tetap tinggi di pasaran global. Tri mengatakan, pembatasan produk nikel kian relevan di tengah tingginya konflik geopolitik saat ini.
Adapun, harga nikel global anjlok sebesar 45% pada 2023 dan tak pulih hingga tahun ini. Melonjaknya pasokan dari Indonesia, yang kini menyumbang lebih dari separuh produksi nikel dunia, dan pertumbuhan permintaan yang lebih lambat dari perkiraan telah membebani pasar dan memaksa beberapa produsen di negara lain untuk menghentikan operasinya.
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TVTranscript
00:00The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a signal to limit the production of nickel in order to maintain the price level in the world market.
00:21However, the global price of nickel has weakened to 45 percent throughout 2023 and has not recovered until now.
00:30The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is considering to limit the magnitude of the production of nickel seeds.
00:40This is done in order to boost the price of batteries in the market.
00:44A number of sources reveal that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to reduce the production of nickel seeds to 150 million tons next year.
00:53The amount has dropped significantly compared to this year's capacity of 272 million tons.
00:59Previously, the Director General of Mineral Resources and Mineral Resources of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Tri Winarno, has given a signal that the ministry will limit the production of nickel products in order to maintain the high price in the global market.
01:10Tri said that the limitation of nickel products is relevant in the midst of the current geopolitical conflict.
01:16However, he did not specify when the limitation of nickel products would take place.
01:21Tri only said that in the midst of a global conflict, Indonesia must have a resilience.
01:26There is a global price of Angelok nickel as high as 45 percent in 2023 and has not recovered until this year.
01:33A team from Indonesia, which now contributes more than half of the world's nickel production,
01:38and a slow growth in demand than expected, has burdened the market and forced several producers in other countries to stop their operations.
02:17Hello, Mrs. Catherine. How are you?
02:21I'm fine, Mr. Pras.
02:23Thank you for your time.
02:25Let's review how you see the current development of the nickel mining industry in Indonesia,
02:33and what challenges it still faces.
02:37Thank you, Mr. Pras.
02:39For your information, Mr. Pras,
02:42we are quite grateful that until the end of this year, in 2024, Indonesia's nickel holds the world's importance.
02:52So, from January to the end of December, we see that Indonesia's nickel production is around 2.4 million tons.
03:02It still holds 53 percent of the world's total global market size.
03:09That means we are still number one, Mr. Pras.
03:11But in this matter, it is very influential on the global nickel condition, which is one of the reasons why the price is still falling.
03:19Although we cannot deny that the price that is important is geopolitical,
03:23but it is quite influential from the production of Indonesia's nickel.
03:28As I said earlier, 2.4 million tons of Indonesian nickel is produced, exported,
03:38including stainless steel.
03:40There are two processes, if I may say so.
03:44The current condition of our nickel is 49 pyrometallurgy and 6 hydrometallurgy.
03:51Next year, in 2025, there will be more.
03:55What is certain is the need for nickel ore.
03:58Again, they cannot produce without us, the miners or from HULU.
04:03We are the ones who determine the size of the production of nickel ore.
04:07Again, it all depends on the government's decision.
04:11How do we adapt to the current condition?
04:14From the position of Indonesia, our nickel will be in the global market.
04:20Then how do we arrange it?
04:22If we look at it now, what is the arrangement like?
04:29We need to take care of it like a master.
04:32And we need to take care of our reserves, that's the most important thing.
04:36Okay, that's it.
04:37Taking care of Indonesia's nickel reserves is the focus of the current government.
04:41And we will go straight to Mr. Rizal Kasli first.
04:43How do you see it?
04:44Review from your point of view on the development of Indonesia's HULU nickel industry.
04:49Mr. Rizal.
04:51We see that the growth of the nickel industry is quite significant.
04:58In terms of the development of smelters, then production,
05:02as Ms. Meledy said earlier,
05:05that we are leading globally with a global percentage of 53%.
05:12This is a pretty good progress.
05:17But we do see that there are a few things that need to be reviewed again.
05:23For example, the development of the number of smelters
05:26must be in line with the availability of resources and reserves from the nickel itself.
05:34If our reserves cannot be sustained for the long term,
05:44then we need to regulate the development of smelters.
05:47But we do see that the government's program is quite advanced
05:54and has a significant impact on the nickel industry in Indonesia
06:02and also the country's income.
06:06Okay, but with the current conditions,
06:08do you see a correct step taken by the government to see the year 2025 coming?
06:14Is there an effort or a plan to limit the production of our nickel?
06:19Mr. Rizal.
06:20The plan to limit it,
06:22if we look at the needs of nickel seeds that are needed,
06:27for example, for those who use pyrometallurgy technology or smelters,
06:39the need for nickel for smelters that have been operated and produced
06:46is around 135 to 150 million tons per year.
06:50It can meet the needs of an operation.
06:54But we must remember that we still have smelters in the construction stage.
07:00It needs almost 100 million tons.
07:04Now, is there a smelter ready to be produced in 2025 or not?
07:10And then there is still a planning stage and a financial closing.
07:15It needs around 180 to 190 million tons per year.
07:21So overall, if this is all finished,
07:25we need more than 400 million tons of high-quality nickel seeds.
07:31For refinery or pyrometallurgy technology, it's not a problem.
07:36We have enough low-quality nickel seeds,
07:39or what we call limonite, so it's still safe.
07:42What we need to focus on is the high-quality nickel reserves,
07:47or safrolite.
07:48This is a consideration for some positive policies
07:58to support the development of nickel production in Indonesia.
08:02Okay. Mrs. Medi, if we look at the intake of smelters
08:06that are related to the nickel seeds,
08:08there are more of them in high-quality or low-quality nickel seeds.
08:11This is related to the limitation of nickel production in Indonesia in 2025.
08:17Yes, Mr. Pras.
08:19I will detail the total number of pyrometallurgy construction
08:23that has been produced and operated.
08:25There are 49.
08:28These 49 pyrometallurgy smelter companies
08:32need 232.292 million tons.
08:38232.292 million,
08:40which is around 230 million tons.
08:43For 6 lines of pyrometallurgy,
08:46it needs around 62 million tons.
08:49As Mr. Rizal mentioned,
08:52there are still 36 pyrometallurgy pyrotechnics
08:56that are under construction.
08:58It needs around 133 million tons.
09:02It was 230 million tons,
09:05which has already been produced.
09:07In addition, there are 133 lines of pyrometallurgy construction,
09:11of 36 smelters,
09:12which needs 158 million tons.
09:15This is specifically for pyrometallurgy,
09:16as mentioned by Mr. Rizal.
09:18It needs cadarthine nickel seeds,
09:19or what we call safrolite,
09:21including nicopic iron,
09:22ferronickel, nickelmate, and so on.
09:24What about hydrometallurgy?
09:26It needs cadarthine nickel seeds.
09:29There are still a few needs, Mr. Rizal.
09:31Of the 6 lines that have been operated,
09:34it only needs around 62 million tons of cadarthine nickel seeds.
09:38How about the other 6 lines that will be added next year?
09:42There are around 4 new hydrometallurgy factories
09:46that will be produced next year.
09:48In total, it will need around 56 million tons.
09:52In other words,
09:53from the total number of factories that have been operated
09:56and will be produced,
09:58it will need around 400 to 500 million tons of cadarthine nickel seeds.
10:03I don't know where to start.
10:06Meanwhile, this year,
10:09the need for cadarthine nickel seeds in 2024,
10:11as I have mentioned,
10:12is around 260 to 280 million tons.
10:15But the RKAB agreement for 2024
10:19is around 271 million tons,
10:23which has been agreed upon.
10:25Since we have been RKAB for 3 years,
10:27it means that we have agreed on 2026 in 2025.
10:30How many have been agreed on in 2025?
10:33There are around 246 million tons.
10:37Then in 2026, there are 198 million tons.
10:42The RKAB agreement has been agreed upon by the government
10:46for 3 years.
10:47Let's compare it to what I have mentioned earlier,
10:50how many needs for those who have been operating,
10:53those who have been producing,
10:55with those who will build,
10:57those who are constructing,
10:58with the RKAB agreement.
11:00Well, recently, there was a word of restriction.
11:05The need has increased,
11:07but the agreement for production from the government has decreased.
11:11I myself am confused,
11:13who is the one who proposed the agreement
11:15to decrease it to 150 million tons,
11:17while our needs will double next year.
11:19Yes, yes.
11:20That's it.
11:21It's very premium.
11:23That's it.
11:25What strategy should be done?
11:27Is there a middle way that can be taken
11:29when it comes to high needs,
11:31but there is an agreement for restriction.
11:33Because it is related to maintaining the price of nickel in the global market.
11:36Hold on to the answer of Mrs. Mehdi.
11:38And Mr. Rizal, we will pause for a moment.
11:40Make sure you are still with us.
11:58Thank you for joining us on Malket TV.
12:01We will continue this interesting discussion
12:03with Mrs. Mehdi Ketunelingki,
12:05as we can see around Sumo Apni.
12:06Then there is Mr. Rizal Kasli,
12:08who is the Vice President of the Investment Board
12:10of Indonesia's Industrial Union.
12:12Okay.
12:13Well, Mrs. Mehdi, this is interesting.
12:15As you said, there is a high demand
12:17for the nickel industry in Indonesia.
12:19Meanwhile, on the other hand,
12:21there is an agreement to restrict
12:23the production of nickel in 2025.
12:28What is the possibility that will happen?
12:30Will there be a new bottleneck
12:32for Indonesia's nickel industry in the future?
12:35Yes, Mr. Pras.
12:37So you have to remember that the RKB agreement,
12:39as I said earlier,
12:41that the government has given an agreement,
12:44again, an RKB agreement,
12:47which has been going on for three years.
12:49Fortunately, we proposed three years yesterday,
12:51which means it's been going on, Mr. Pras.
12:53As I mentioned earlier, in 2025,
12:55the RKB that has been agreed to
12:57will be around 246 or 250 million for 2025.
13:01But remember, Mr. Pras,
13:03because the agreement is already there,
13:05it's impossible to pull it back.
13:07Right.
13:08The government.
13:09What if I have agreed to RKB,
13:11then I can't pull it back,
13:13you deliberately, right?
13:15It's impossible.
13:17The second one is already common.
13:19For example, Mr. Pras,
13:21my company got RKB 1 million,
13:23for example, for one year.
13:25At the end of the year,
13:27in the third or fourth semester,
13:29I finished production.
13:31Additional revision.
13:33RKB additional revision.
13:35Because the city is finished.
13:37If there is no RKB, it's illegal.
13:39So we have to add or revise RKB.
13:41The question is,
13:43will the government do RKB revision next year
13:47or not at all?
13:49And the second,
13:51with the current conditions,
13:53based on the demand needs of BGN,
13:55smelter must still run, right?
13:57Mr. Pras, it's impossible to stop.
13:59So how do they get BGN?
14:03The main raw material.
14:05Whether they want it or not,
14:07from March to October,
14:09there is import.
14:11Import BGN from the Philippines.
14:13In November and December,
14:15there is no import.
14:17From March to October,
14:19it's about 300,000 tons of BGN import from the Philippines.
14:25Will there be a new import later?
14:27Yes, from the Philippines,
14:29New Caledonia,
14:31or Papua New Guinea.
14:33The closest.
14:35Because we have the same BGN.
14:37Laterally with those countries.
14:39I'm sure if, for example,
14:41the government implements
14:43BGN or raw material restrictions,
14:45whether they want it or not,
14:47they will definitely import.
14:49But on the other hand,
14:51the good news for us,
14:53for the smelters,
14:55the smelters are struggling.
14:57If they are struggling,
14:59how much is the price?
15:01This is interesting.
15:03Mr. Rizal, what do you think?
15:05Is it more important
15:07if we can increase
15:09the price of nickel
15:11in the international market?
15:13But on the other hand,
15:15we also have to meet the needs of smelters
15:17from nickel in Indonesia.
15:19Meanwhile, there will be restrictions.
15:21How about importing nickel seeds
15:23in Indonesia?
15:25Will this be a challenge?
15:27Because there are a lot of nickel importers
15:29in Indonesia.
15:31Mr. Rizal.
15:33Yes.
15:35If I look at it,
15:37the steps that need to be taken
15:39are, first,
15:41we look at the past.
15:43In the past, the government
15:45had to intensify exploration
15:47to find resources
15:49and new nickel reserves.
15:51Meanwhile, there are still areas
15:53that have not been explored
15:55by more than 50%,
15:57especially the eastern areas,
15:59such as Slovakia, Maluku,
16:01North Maluku, and Papua.
16:03This can be done
16:05by what we call
16:07Greenfield Exploration.
16:09It means opening
16:11new exploration areas
16:13and with
16:15Brownfield Exploration.
16:17Brownfield is to increase
16:19or convert
16:21resources into reserves
16:23with professional codes,
16:25such as
16:27GCMI code,
16:29EORC with Australia.
16:31Then the next step
16:33is to conserve
16:35mineral resources.
16:37That is by increasing
16:39mining recovery,
16:41higher rates,
16:43so that no seeds are wasted.
16:45Then there is also a technical step
16:47which is to reduce
16:49the rate of nickel
16:51which is lower.
16:53In the past, I remember that
16:55nickel that was prioritized
16:57to be processed
16:59using pyrometallurgy or smelter technology
17:01was above 1.8%
17:03of the rate of nickel.
17:05Now it can be below 1.5%.
17:07Maybe this can be reduced
17:09to 1.4%
17:11or 1.3% of the rate of nickel.
17:13So that our reserves can increase.
17:15Then the next step
17:17is
17:19to import.
17:21As Mr. Maggie explained earlier,
17:23we don't have to be allergic to
17:25importing nickel seeds from other countries.
17:27Because
17:29sustainable operational
17:31for smelters is more important.
17:33Because they have invested
17:35with a fairly high value
17:37and there must be a guarantee
17:39for the supply of new materials.
17:41The next step is
17:43policy improvement
17:45or the mechanism of RKAB
17:47where
17:49we see that there is
17:51a problem of delay
17:53or not approved
17:55by the RKAB
17:57by the government.
17:59In this case, the Directorate General of Mineral and Copper
18:01with various reasons
18:03and shortcomings.
18:05We once said
18:07that
18:09because the basis of this RKAB
18:11is a report
18:13of feasibility study
18:15and then
18:17the authority,
18:19then the planning of advertising
18:21and planning of mining investment,
18:23RR and RPT, and also RIPPM.
18:25The point is
18:27so that it won't be a problem in the future
18:29and the limited resources
18:31in the Ministry of Mineral and Copper.
18:33This RKAB is only based
18:35on sufficient documents
18:37that are indeed
18:39in this area.
18:41It means that this RKAB does not need to be approved
18:43as long as it complies with the documents
18:45in this area.
18:47But the question is
18:49who decides the quota?
18:51The government decides.
18:53The government must do a detailed study
18:55to see the supply and demand
18:57for the need for these nickel seeds.
18:59Okay, and it has been said
19:01by Mrs. Mehdi as well as Mr. Rizal
19:03that in three years,
19:05by 2026, the RKAB has been approved.
19:07The final quota is 198 million tons.
19:09Do you think
19:11the limitation of production
19:13of nickel seeds in Indonesia
19:15will be effective
19:17related to the movement
19:19of the price of nickel in the world
19:21and then how the trade
19:23of the nickel industry
19:25will be between production
19:27and the need for processing
19:29or the smelter?
19:31The volatility of the price of nickel
19:33is determined by supply and demand.
19:35Okay.
19:37The production of nickel itself
19:39is also influenced
19:41by the economic growth.
19:43The economic growth will indicate
19:45the demand for the smelter,
19:47especially from China and India.
19:49And for the supply and demand,
19:51as I explained earlier,
19:53we have already
19:55exploited the market
19:57by 53% globally.
19:59And there are
20:01some nickel smelters
20:03in other countries like Australia
20:05that suspend their operations
20:07because they can't compete.
20:09And the price is getting lower,
20:11they even close
20:13temporarily
20:15their mining operations
20:17while waiting
20:19for a more positive price movement.
20:21So it is necessary to
20:23control the level of production too.
20:25Don't go beyond
20:27the demand globally.
20:29Okay.
20:31What about Indonesia's position?
20:33In the future,
20:35will the restriction
20:37of nickel production be implemented?
20:39Will it really benefit
20:41Indonesia's position or not?
20:43Well,
20:45we have to see
20:47what Indonesia
20:49will get
20:51from this polarization.
20:53Because the one who pays
20:55the royalty must be paid first.
20:57The price of nickel
20:59depends on the quantity
21:01which means the revenue
21:03from the royalty
21:05must be paid first.
21:07After discussing
21:09with some countries,
21:11the price of nickel
21:13since 2020
21:15until now,
21:17the gap is enormous.
21:19Let's look at the price first.
21:21In Indonesia, the average price
21:23for all grade nickel
21:25is 1.8.
21:27From 2020 until 2024,
21:29the average price is 37 dollars.
21:31While the international price
21:33is 67 dollars.
21:37I compared it with
21:39other countries such as China
21:41or Europe.
21:43The price difference is very
21:45influential from the royalty.
21:47If I count
21:49since 2023
21:51until 2004,
21:53the price difference
21:55from other countries
21:57is 6.3 billion dollars.
22:01Let's look at the price first.
22:03Secondly,
22:05as Mr. Rizal said,
22:07there are still
22:09a lot of new areas.
22:11We are very concerned about the reserves.
22:13If all the high-grade nickel
22:15is used up, it's gone.
22:17But if the low-grade nickel is used up,
22:19from the total reserves,
22:21Mr. Rizal said,
22:2370% is low-grade nickel,
22:25which is 1.5% below
22:27for the use of
22:29hydrometallurgy.
22:31As I said earlier,
22:33the demand for hydrometallurgy is still low
22:35compared to pyrometallurgy.
22:37Meanwhile, there are more reserves
22:39compared to
22:41the demand.
22:43What should we look at?
22:45First, we have to look at
22:47the future.
22:49On the 1st, the price of
22:51PN12% is very
22:53influential
22:55on the mining industry.
22:57Not just nickel, but everything.
22:59With the increase in
23:01nickel,
23:03sorry, with the increase in taxes,
23:05how can the company
23:07survive?
23:09Second, can it open new land?
23:11Third, can we win-win a solution
23:13with smelter? Because we have to support
23:15this smelter on the demand
23:17for nickel.
23:19The country is in need of money,
23:21but there is a price gap up to
23:23US$6.3 billion.
23:25Second, how about
23:27the world supply demand?
23:29As I said earlier, 53%
23:31of our total production
23:33will continue to increase
23:35from 2020 to
23:372024.
23:39We add up to 1.5 million tons.
23:411.5 million tons
23:43of nickel production,
23:45where it is estimated that
23:47the world supply demand will decrease
23:49to 450,000 tons.
23:51It means there is an oversupply here.
23:53There will be oversupply.
23:55Let's go back to Indonesia's production.
23:57From 2020 to 2024,
23:59the graph is increasing.
24:01The increase is up to 1.5 million tons,
24:03where the world demand
24:05has decreased to 450,000 tons
24:07for nickel.
24:11How do we respond?
24:13While the price is going down.
24:15This is our step.
24:17We are discussing with the government.
24:19Again, I repeat,
24:21what is nickel premium?
24:23At the moment, APNI is trying
24:25to discuss with the government
24:27to revise the HPM.
24:29We have to calculate the price of nickel,
24:31limonide, because so far
24:33there has been no HPM-based transaction
24:35for limonide.
24:37Second, in 2023,
24:39we will produce the world's largest cobalt,
24:41where the cobalt is still free,
24:43while there is a potential for
24:45receiving the country.
24:47We are calculating the cobalt price.
24:49Not bad, right?
24:51Cobalt price is 3 times higher than nickel.
24:53Even though it's only 0.2,
24:55the cobalt content is still there.
24:57Third, back to nickel premium.
24:59For your information,
25:01we are negotiating
25:03with the EU's
25:05battery law.
25:07The EU's battery law
25:09has stipulated
25:11that on February 18, 2025,
25:13we will launch a secondary premium
25:15for battery passports.
25:19On August 18, 2025,
25:21the EU's battery law
25:23has been launched.
25:27In 2027,
25:31all batteries
25:33that enter
25:35the European Union
25:37are already based on ESG,
25:39so they must use
25:41a battery passport.
25:43What is a battery passport?
25:45Well, the condition is ESG.
25:47We have to start negotiating,
25:49so if we look at the red line,
25:51is it from nickel?
25:53What is the limitation?
25:55Second, we are doing the management
25:57that is based on ESG.
25:59We already have E, S, G,
26:01but there is no ESG regulation yet.
26:05Is there an audit for world agencies
26:07such as IRMA, RMI,
26:09or Nickelmark?
26:11It's really hard,
26:13from the chairman yesterday,
26:15Mr. Rizal, former chairman,
26:17we are also arranging
26:19how Indonesia's nickel
26:21can become a premium nickel.
26:23Premium nickel, again,
26:25based on ESG.
26:27This is what we are doing,
26:29so it depends on the government
26:31how to proceed.
26:33But for sure, for nickel to enter
26:35the European market,
26:37we have to have a passport.
26:39That's the challenge.
26:41It looks like in 2025 and in the future,
26:43it will still be quite difficult,
26:45especially with the limitation.
26:47Then how to keep the price of nickel
26:49still competitive,
26:51especially for Indonesia,
26:53how to make use of it,
26:55talking about hydrometallurgy,
26:57or nickel with a low price
26:59can be used very optimally
27:01in Indonesia.
27:03Thank you, Mr. Rizal,
27:05for your attention.
27:07We will see how it goes
27:09in 2025, of course.
27:11Mrs. Mehdi, thank you very much
27:13for the information update
27:15you have given to the audience.
27:17And Mr. Rizal, thank you
27:19for the analysis you have given
27:21to the audience today.
27:23Congratulations on your activities again.
27:25Stay healthy and see you again.
27:27Thank you, Mr. Rizal.
27:29Stay healthy.
27:31Happy New Year.
28:01Happy New Year.
28:03Happy New Year.
28:05Happy New Year.
28:07Happy New Year.
28:09Happy New Year.
28:11Happy New Year.
28:13Happy New Year.
28:15Happy New Year.
28:17Happy New Year.
28:19Happy New Year.
28:21Happy New Year.
28:23Happy New Year.
28:25Happy New Year.
28:27Happy New Year.
28:29Happy New Year.
28:31Happy New Year.
28:33Happy New Year.