Momen bulan suci Ramadan dan hari raya Idul Fitri biasanya selalu menjadi salah satu pendorong aktivitas ekonomi masyarakat dan dunia usaha secara nasional. Sebab sudah menjadi tradisi, saat Ramadan dan Idul Firi masyarakat akan mengeluarkan uang lebih banyak dibandingkan hari biasanya, baik untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pangan, pakaian hingga wisata.
Dan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan penukaran uang rupiah pada momen Ramadan dan Idul Fitri tahun ini, Bank Indonesia telah menyiapkan uang layak edar sebesar Rp180,9 triliun. Namun demikian, jumlah tersebut justru menurun dibandingkan tahun 2024 lalu, yang tercatat Rp197,6 triliun.
Sementara itu, Kementerian Perhubungan memprediksikan jumlah masyarakat yang akan melakukan perjalanan selama momen mudik lebaran tahun ini, mencapai 146,48 juta orang. Jumlah pemudik tahun ini juga tercatat mengalami penurunan sekitar 24% dibandingkan tahun 2024 lalu yang mencapai 193,6 juta orang.
Di sisi lain, dari jumlah ratusan juta jiwa tersebut, Kemenhub juga memprediksi ada 33,71 juta orang atau 23% dari pemudik yang akan menggunakan mobil pribadi.
Dan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan penukaran uang rupiah pada momen Ramadan dan Idul Fitri tahun ini, Bank Indonesia telah menyiapkan uang layak edar sebesar Rp180,9 triliun. Namun demikian, jumlah tersebut justru menurun dibandingkan tahun 2024 lalu, yang tercatat Rp197,6 triliun.
Sementara itu, Kementerian Perhubungan memprediksikan jumlah masyarakat yang akan melakukan perjalanan selama momen mudik lebaran tahun ini, mencapai 146,48 juta orang. Jumlah pemudik tahun ini juga tercatat mengalami penurunan sekitar 24% dibandingkan tahun 2024 lalu yang mencapai 193,6 juta orang.
Di sisi lain, dari jumlah ratusan juta jiwa tersebut, Kemenhub juga memprediksi ada 33,71 juta orang atau 23% dari pemudik yang akan menggunakan mobil pribadi.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's economy is on the verge of collapse
00:21Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:23Back again with me, Prasetyo Wibowo, in the Market Review program,
00:26which will address the issues that are the driving force of the economy in Indonesia.
00:30You can also watch our live streaming on idxchannel.com.
00:33Without further ado, let's start the Market Review.
00:38Indonesia's Currency Deficit
00:49Dear viewers,
00:50the demand for cash in the community during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr is usually increasing.
00:55However, the amount of cash available by Bank Indonesia this time
00:59has actually decreased compared to 2024.
01:03From Rp197.6 trillion to Rp180.9 trillion.
01:13The moments of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr
01:16are usually one of the driving forces of the community's economic activity
01:19and the business world nationally.
01:21Because it has become a tradition during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr,
01:24the community will spend more money than usual,
01:27both for food, clothing, and tourism.
01:31And to meet the needs of cash exchange
01:33at the time of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr this year,
01:35Bank Indonesia has prepared cash worth Rp180.9 trillion.
01:40However, the amount actually decreased compared to 2024,
01:44which was recorded at Rp197.6 trillion.
01:48Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transportation predicts that the number of people
01:51who will travel during the holiday season this year
01:55will reach 146.48 million people.
01:58The number of passengers this year is also recorded to have decreased by around 24%
02:01compared to last year, which reached Rp193.6 million.
02:06In addition to the number of hundreds of millions of souls,
02:08Kemehope also predicts that there will be 33.71 million people
02:12or 23% of the passengers who will use private cars.
02:15From Jakarta, I'm Ayodhya Kecilno.
02:22Yes, our topic this time is
02:24cash exchange versus people's purchasing power during Eid al-Fitr.
02:27We are connected via Zoom with Mrs. Imam Mayasari,
02:30Chairperson of the Committee on Law, Defense, and Industry of Indonesia.
02:35Hello, Mrs. Imam, how are you?
02:37Alhamdulillah, I'm fine, Mr. Pras.
02:39Okay, thank you for your time.
02:41We are also joined by Mr. Rizal Taufiq Rohman,
02:43Head of Indef's Macroeconomics and Finance Center.
02:45Hello, Mr. Rizal, how are you?
02:48I'm fine, Mr. Pras.
02:49Okay, thank you for your time.
02:51Mr. Rizal, before discussing further,
02:53let's review Indef first.
02:54It is related to people's economic activities
02:57from the beginning of the year until Ramadan.
02:59What is happening right now?
03:02Please.
03:03Yes, if we look at the purchasing power or the inflation rate,
03:08it shows a moderate number,
03:12which tends to slow down.
03:15And this shows a decrease in people's purchasing power.
03:21Is this caused by the acceptance of the community?
03:27Or is it from the economic energy side?
03:34Which is based on policy.
03:37There is indeed a policy role,
03:39where in this first quarter,
03:44there is a policy, for example, a discount.
03:49So that the number also has an impact.
03:52But what is of concern is
03:56the most dominant is how people's income decreases.
04:01And that is as a continuation of people's purchasing power,
04:07which last year was almost 7 months,
04:11it went down,
04:12except for November and December, which improved.
04:17Well, of course, this is a serious condition for the government.
04:23On the other hand, if we look at the supply side,
04:27that many communities,
04:30not only from the middle class,
04:31but also from the lower class,
04:35then there is a fairly large PHK,
04:38especially in the labor-intensive industries.
04:41And this is a big contributor to the purchasing power.
04:47The second is also related to
04:53fairly high prices,
04:58especially from certain communities.
05:00But it is also difficult to be accessed by the community.
05:04Because the income is also starting to decline.
05:08So that the community's contribution to the accessibility of products is also declining.
05:16Then on the demand side,
05:18the income of the community has decreased,
05:20as a result of the decrease in income,
05:23and they no longer have many people working.
05:26As a result of the PHK,
05:28then also the job market,
05:30in this Triwulan 1,
05:32or January-February until March,
05:35it seems that the absorption of the number of workers is still not as expected.
05:41Or the job market is also not much created.
05:45Well, I think this is an important note.
05:48Usually, when we talk about MUDIK,
05:51Eid,
05:53especially normally,
05:57it pushes consumption.
05:59But if we look at last year,
06:02indeed the push for consumption has begun to decline.
06:05Whereas in the first Triwulan,
06:08there was a build-press, then there was a build-like.
06:12And it turns out that the economic growth is also small.
06:17And especially in the current condition,
06:20so it is very likely that
06:26consumption will still be positive,
06:30but moderate,
06:32which is not like a normal condition.
06:37Okay, Mr. Rizal.
06:38Well, from Mrs. Imah herself,
06:40how do you see the condition of Ramadan this year,
06:43related to the purchasing power that has been stated by Mr. Rizal from Indef.
06:47Indeed, there is a weakness in the purchasing power of the community,
06:50due to the increase in the price of food communities.
06:52As you can see, does this also affect the business world in the end?
06:57Yes, of course.
06:58This is also very influential on the business world.
07:02Especially how the synergy between the business world and the government,
07:07to be a strategic partner of the government
07:09in achieving the target of 8% economic growth.
07:12Still, there are not many challenges faced by the industry.
07:17As mentioned earlier by Mr. Rizal,
07:20that there is an issue related to the decision on working relations
07:23or the public sector,
07:24which has also burdened the industry in the last few weeks.
07:30And then, of course, this will also have a great impact
07:33on the decline in the purchasing power of the community.
07:37There are challenges in the labor sector,
07:40which is also an issue that is quite face-to-face.
07:46Especially how the government's policy on import control
07:50which also has an impact on the domestic industry.
07:54Okay, Ms. Iman.
07:55So it does have an impact on the current situation,
07:58not just on the community.
08:00As mentioned earlier, there are also some companies
08:03that have to make a decision on working relations,
08:05so as to further weaken the purchasing power of the community.
08:08Mr. Rizal, this is interesting.
08:10If we look at it, Indonesia has prepared around Rp 180.9 trillion
08:15for the needs of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr this year.
08:18And the amount is smaller compared to last year,
08:22which is Rp 197.6 trillion.
08:25What is your analysis, Mr. Rizal?
08:28Was it because of those factors?
08:31So in the end, the Central Bank also prepared,
08:34unlike last year?
08:36Yes, the Central Bank is very sensitive to money circulation.
08:40It means that the money circulation in the community is declining,
08:44and so is the demand.
08:46Of course, if we look at last year,
08:50which was prepared by the government for Rp 197 trillion,
08:53the realization is around Rp 130 trillion, right?
08:56Okay.
08:57Moreover, this year, Rp 180 trillion,
09:00the realization is probably even smaller.
09:02Okay.
09:03What does this mean?
09:04It means that the community is currently very pressured to consume.
09:13Which of course results in a weak purchasing power.
09:18This weak purchasing power is of course due to the lack of budget for export.
09:25And now people, especially in the current economic situation,
09:28say that the financial sector is in turmoil.
09:32Yes.
09:33HSG, we are the lowest, even red,
09:39in ASEAN.
09:41This will also affect the creation of jobs through investment.
09:47Then there is also a decline in the demand for tertiary goods.
09:52Usually on Eid,
09:54similarly to the demand for fashion wear,
09:59or for example, the use of cars,
10:02tertiary goods, electronic goods,
10:05and also the main tourism sector in the area.
10:09Of course, this will also be affected.
10:12And this decline will also push for a decrease in the multiplier effect in the area.
10:19The income transfer will also decrease,
10:22the regional MSMEs will also decrease.
10:25And moreover, what we most do not expect,
10:29is actually a decrease in productivity.
10:31We do not expect industrial productivity to decrease,
10:38and of course without consumption compensation.
10:42This is what we do not expect.
10:43If this happens, of course it will be prolonged on Eid.
10:48And this must be anticipated by the government
10:51with effective policies, I think.
10:54That's it.
10:55If we look at the decline in the amount of circulating money
10:58related to the conditions of the community,
10:59will this also be felt for entrepreneurs
11:02as has been reported in various areas?
11:04How do MSMEs who usually consume quite a lot
11:08in their native areas,
11:10we will discuss in the next segment.
11:12Mr. Rizal, Mr. Hima, we will take a short break.
11:14Mr. Mirsa, we will be back in a moment.
11:17Indonesia's Central Bank Prepares Money For Ramadan
11:21And Eid
11:25Indonesia's Central Bank Prepares Money For Ramadan
11:28And Eid
11:33Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
11:36Next, we will be back to deliver data to you
11:38about the preparation of cash
11:40prepared by the Indonesian Central Bank
11:42in face of Ramadan and Eid.
11:45You can see the details on the television screen.
11:48Starting from 2022,
11:50there will be Rp180 trillion prepared by the Central Bank.
11:54Next year, it will rise to Rp195 trillion.
11:58In 2024, it will rise again to Rp197.6 trillion.
12:02And in 2025,
12:05there will be a decrease to Rp180.9 trillion.
12:10Not much different from 2022.
12:14Next, we will talk about inflation.
12:18We know that in the last two months,
12:21there has been a deflation.
12:23In February, it was minus 0.09 percent.
12:27In February, it was 0.48 percent per year.
12:33In 2020, it was 0.09 percent per year.
12:36Let's continue our discussion with
12:38Mrs. Imamaya Sari and Mr. Rizal Taufiq Rohman.
12:41Let's talk about the current situation.
12:43From the perspective of Kadina,
12:46how do you see it?
12:47The decrease in the amount of IDR from the Indonesian Central Bank,
12:50the weakening of people's purchasing power,
12:52how do you see it
12:54and how will it affect the region?
12:56Remember, there are 146 million people
12:59who will travel to a number of regions in Indonesia.
13:05Please.
13:06We can see that
13:09because of the pressure from the purchasing power of the people
13:14which is then suppressed.
13:16If we look at it, it's getting weaker
13:19compared to the previous year.
13:21Therefore, it will certainly affect
13:25the circulation of money
13:28which is then experienced
13:31and then to the region itself.
13:34For example, in this context,
13:36when they do this,
13:39usually the tradition of Mudik Lebaran,
13:41this can be...
13:42So, it has already experienced a decrease.
13:44It means that they usually
13:46mudik,
13:49so that their activities do not delay
13:51to do mudik, like that.
13:53Then we can also see
13:56that this will also be a challenge
13:58in circulation
13:59related to
14:02money circulation balance.
14:04Because in the past, they usually tended to be able to mudik
14:08to the regions.
14:09So then the funds usually revolve
14:13to the region of the origin of the mudik.
14:15So then it can increase consumption
14:17in the retail sector, funds, etc.
14:19But the economic pressure at this time
14:22is then a problem
14:25related to how the distribution
14:27related to money circulation
14:28during Ramadan and then Lebaran.
14:30Because earlier, the people could delay the mudik
14:33and then related to social assistance
14:35and then the THR actually
14:37shrunk, like that.
14:38So this is a problem
14:40of weakening economic pressure
14:42in recent times, like that.
14:45Okay, but you yourself have a special strategy
14:48to deal with this condition.
14:49I remember earlier, this demand
14:51is it also one of the
14:53resistance as well?
14:54How about the productivity of the industry itself?
14:57Yes, if we can see,
14:59there are many policies
15:01that need to be pushed to the government
15:03to then protect our industry
15:05in the country.
15:06The first example is related
15:08to import control
15:09and then also
15:10certain global gas prices
15:12which is also expected
15:13this can also
15:14give incentives to the industry world.
15:16And there are many policies
15:19related to import control
15:21and then stimulus to the business world
15:24such as master list facilities
15:26and so on, like that.
15:28Well, things like this
15:29and then
15:31how can the government
15:33have policies that can
15:35push the productivity
15:37in the industry in our country
15:39so that it can compete
15:41with the industry from outside.
15:43Like that, Mr. Pras.
15:45Okay, Mr. Arija,
15:46from your point of view,
15:47how is the deflation that happened
15:48in the last two months?
15:49Is this really one of the
15:51challenges for
15:53the people's capital,
15:55then from the point of view of
15:57the ability of the community
15:58to increase their consumption
16:00usually in the momentum
16:01of Ramadan and Eid?
16:03Indeed, January, February, March
16:07the momentum is very heavy,
16:09Mr. Pras.
16:10The efficiency policy
16:11also has an impact.
16:12Okay.
16:13Even the finance minister
16:15yesterday, we had a deficit
16:16of almost 32 trillion
16:18in February.
16:20And what does this mean?
16:22It means that
16:23the economy transactions
16:25are sluggish, right?
16:27Okay.
16:28So the government's spending
16:29is also quite large.
16:31The government must
16:33look at this situation.
16:36The tax is allocated,
16:39maybe it should be evaluated,
16:40this condition,
16:41is allocated,
16:43even though the government
16:44says it gives 100%
16:46THR rights
16:48to ASN,
16:49to honorary employees,
16:51then Gojek,
16:52let's say,
16:53or also
16:56online drivers.
16:58But it won't
17:00push too much.
17:04Because the most important thing
17:06is how the current
17:08economic circulation
17:09and transmission
17:11so that the income
17:13rises for the community.
17:16It's a bit difficult
17:18in this very short period.
17:20But the government,
17:22in a situation like this,
17:24must really take
17:27strategic and proactive steps,
17:30especially in
17:32maintaining the consumption of the community.
17:35Okay, let's say the income goes down,
17:37or the circulating money also goes down,
17:40it must really be
17:42how the mixed policy,
17:43fiscal and monetary,
17:45is really optimized
17:46in a situation like this.
17:48Especially in the middle of a situation
17:50where our financial sector
17:52is also facing
17:54a very big challenge.
17:56Well, what is the policy?
17:58The most important thing is
17:59how to
18:01stabilize goods,
18:04for example, and also price intervention.
18:06Price intervention,
18:08especially for communities
18:09that are consumed by the community
18:11during Ramadan and Eid.
18:14For example,
18:16transportation,
18:18which must be a ticket,
18:20especially for the public,
18:22which is a lot,
18:23the toll is reduced,
18:25the toll is reduced,
18:27the cost of the price,
18:28then also,
18:30free tickets are also very helpful,
18:32it will be even better
18:34if it is pushed
18:35with a policy
18:37that is quite massive.
18:39And also,
18:41prices, especially goods,
18:43which are usually consumed by goods,
18:45can also be controlled.
18:47Including in the region,
18:50the region must coordinate
18:51the center and the region,
18:53regional governments
18:55must also catch up
18:56with this situation,
18:57don't be passive,
18:59but actually have to be proactive,
19:01innovative,
19:03how to do
19:07business opportunities in the region,
19:10both tourism
19:12or in other sectors,
19:15which can increase
19:17the energy from the region.
19:19Because there are still those who are passive,
19:21those who are passive must be people who have money,
19:23who still have consumption,
19:25and their hope is that
19:27they must be maintained
19:29in order to
19:34transfer their money to the region.
19:36And open up business opportunities,
19:39especially the government has
19:41activities or programs
19:43based in the region.
19:45Okay, so it must also be optimized
19:47for regional governments
19:48to adapt to the existing conditions,
19:49how to innovate
19:51to attract more people,
19:53especially for students
19:55who go back to their hometowns.
19:57What sectors can still
19:59feel the blessings of Ramadan
20:01and Eid this time,
20:02we will discuss later in the next segment.
20:04Mr. Rizal and Mrs. Imah,
20:05we will be back in a moment.
20:06Mirsa, stay with us.
20:13Market Review
20:23You are still watching Market Review.
20:25Let's go straight to Mrs. Imah.
20:26How do you see,
20:27are there still business sectors
20:29that can still feel the blessings of Ramadan
20:32and Eid this time,
20:34even though it was still imagined
20:36the weakness of people's purchasing power
20:38in the city or even in the region?
20:41Yes, in my opinion,
20:42there are still sectors
20:45that are still in this context
20:48feel the blessings
20:49in Ramadan and Eid.
20:51For example,
20:52related to basic needs,
20:53of course we can't deny it.
20:55Related to food, drinks,
20:57clothing, and worship equipment,
20:59of course, there is still an increase
21:03in people's consumption.
21:04Then we see
21:06traditional or modern markets
21:08are still experiencing a surge
21:10in sales,
21:12especially for Eid al-Fitr itself,
21:14and especially e-commerce and marketplace.
21:17It means that the trend
21:19related to Eid al-Fitr and Ramadan
21:21is getting an increase
21:23in transactions,
21:24especially for products such as
21:26fashion, Eid al-Fitr, and so on.
21:29Then in the MSME and culinary sector,
21:32of course,
21:33because it is needed
21:36for, for example,
21:37breakfast or then suhoor,
21:39they are still experiencing an increase
21:44in the MSME and culinary sectors.
21:46And also transportation,
21:48we see that although the economic pressure
21:50is weakening,
21:52but it can also be a mode of transportation,
21:55land, sea, and air
21:57also experience a surge in passengers
21:59and also related to the service of
22:00shipping and shipping goods,
22:02as well as perhaps for the people
22:04who then use motorized vehicles,
22:08the SPBU and fuel supply
22:10certainly feel a surge in demand.
22:12And also the tourism and hotel sector
22:15to the people who then
22:17use motorized vehicles and also
22:19especially related to telecommunications
22:21and digital,
22:23because there will be a lot of increases
22:25as well as the high level of
22:27social media use and communication services
22:29during Eid.
22:30I think some sectors such as
22:32trading, MSMEs, transportation,
22:34tourism, finance, and telecommunications
22:37are the ones who benefit
22:40from the money circulation during Ramadan
22:42and Eid.
22:43Okay, your opinion,
22:44related to many workers
22:47who were previously affected by the PHK this year,
22:49especially in the labor-intensive industry
22:51such as textile and footwear,
22:53how is it?
22:54Yes, it is certain that they will experience
22:56an economic slowdown,
22:58because in this context,
22:59they are facing economic pressures
23:02due to a decline in demand,
23:04as well as the closure of several
23:06textile factories.
23:08Then we see a lot of government efforts
23:12to then control,
23:13related to the import of
23:15textiles themselves.
23:16And this then becomes a very tight competition
23:19with products rather than imports
23:21whose price can be dumped
23:23or can be cheaper.
23:25Then there is also the cost of production,
23:27because the price of raw materials
23:29and energy are still facing
23:31issues related to GDP,
23:34such as oil,
23:36and then the minimum wage.
23:38Then the change in consumption patterns
23:42or then modernization in the industry
23:44is also very influential in this context
23:47to increase the PHK in the labor-intensive industry.
23:50Like that.
23:51Okay, last, Mr. Rizal,
23:53how is your projection
23:55regarding the activity
23:57and consumption patterns of the people
23:59after Eid?
24:01If we know that the current condition
24:03is still haunted by a decrease in the purchasing power of the people.
24:07Yes, for sure,
24:09Eid is in the middle of a decrease in purchasing power
24:12and also the circulation of money
24:16is getting lower.
24:19Of course, it is still beneficial to the economy,
24:21but the numbers and intensities are lower
24:25compared to normal conditions.
24:27Of course, the government must anticipate this.
24:31Why?
24:32Because this will have an impact
24:34on household consumption
24:36in the first trimester.
24:39And this is a trigger
24:41to boost economic growth
24:43in the next trimester.
24:45Okay.
24:46Moreover,
24:48compensation or discount
24:51for electricity, for example.
24:53In March, it's back again.
24:55In April, the payment is back again.
24:58Of course, this will make it more difficult.
25:01Of course, the most certain thing is that the government
25:04is really preparing
25:07a short-term strategy
25:10that can maintain consumption
25:13of electricity.
25:14Of course,
25:15the economic stimulus
25:20that is targeted, for example,
25:22social assistance is still provided,
25:25but it must be in time and at the right moment.
25:28Secondly,
25:30the most important thing is
25:33how to create jobs
25:35that can absorb labor
25:37and also save people
25:39who are already working
25:42so that they can still work in the formal sector.
25:46Because the problem in our labor force
25:49is that the majority
25:51in the last 10 years has been informal.
25:54And this is important
25:57to switch or also
26:00find a way out
26:02in promoting the formal sector
26:04through formal business.
26:07I think that's it.
26:08Okay, that's it.
26:09So there are still many challenges
26:10that must be done
26:11by the government,
26:13entrepreneurs,
26:14or other stakeholders
26:16to increase
26:17and maintain the purchasing power of the community.
26:19Of course,
26:20that's where the country must be present
26:23with various stimulus
26:24or other policies
26:26that can boost the purchasing power of the community.
26:29Okay, Mr. Rizal,
26:30Mrs. Ima, thank you very much
26:31for the time, sharing, and update
26:33given to the PM today.
26:34You're welcome.
26:35Congratulations on your activities again.
26:36Stay healthy.
26:37See you again.
26:39Don't go anywhere.
26:41We will be back
26:42with other interesting topics
26:44related to the optimization
26:46of the distribution of people's business credits
26:48in 2025.