IHSG jatuh sempat hingga -7%, dinilai sejumlah pengamat pasar sebagai dampak dari sentimen eksternal dan domestik. Dari dalam negeri, selera risiko investor menurun karena tingginya spekulasi atas isu yang belum terkonfirmasi misalnya pengunduran diri menteri keuangan, Sri Mulyani, kemudian penanganan sejumlah pelanggaran hukum, serta proyeksi ekonomi ke depan.
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00:00KENJI PUTRACHAHAYA, HEAD OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, PT.F.A.C. SEKURITAS INDONESIA
00:05We will talk this morning, Mr. Mirza, with Kenji Putrachahaya,
00:08Head of Business Development, PT.F.A.C. SEKURITAS INDONESIA
00:11Hello, Mr. Kenji, how are you?
00:14Good morning, Mrs. Prisa.
00:15Good morning, thank you.
00:16How are you?
00:17I'm fine.
00:18I hope the market today is rebounded,
00:21not in line with the theme of my outfit today.
00:25This is just a coincidence, Mr. Kenji.
00:27How is the price-to-join rate index?
00:29After yesterday limiting the weakness,
00:31even though it still fell by almost 4% in the afternoon.
00:35Okay, for today's opportunity,
00:37there is still a potential for correction,
00:39although what we expect is not as deep as yesterday.
00:42Because for yesterday,
00:46rumors about Mrs. Srimulyani
00:49have actually been known
00:51since before this week.
00:54So it's actually not because of that issue.
00:56In my opinion, it's more because
00:59the condition of our IHSG market share is slumped,
01:03slumped down,
01:05as a result of Samsung's conglomeration
01:08and Samsung's other big cap.
01:10What is still in the range that we have to keep,
01:14hopefully it still moves between 6150 to 6500
01:19for IHSG resistance,
01:21at least for us to be a little calm first.
01:24Okay.
01:25If you say it's actually not because of the finance minister's issue,
01:29because the issue has actually begun to show
01:31that it is not true at the beginning of this week,
01:33you see more that because of the contribution of Samsung's conglomeration
01:36which even fell in the ARB,
01:38or rejected that,
01:39why did Samsung's conglomeration
01:41do a sale action?
01:43Selling action?
01:45Okay, it's impossible,
01:47especially since the correction has continued.
01:49From the overall market,
01:51we also see that the condition of the market
01:53is less turbulent,
01:55so that many of the retailers
01:57are starting to take advantage of the position,
01:59especially as the holiday season is approaching,
02:02so people prefer to save cash.
02:06As for the big funds,
02:08as mentioned earlier,
02:11for MSCI and friends,
02:13because the market cap has fallen,
02:15they have to stream
02:17the share of Samsung's ownership,
02:19so automatically they have to sell too,
02:22so that,
02:24if we can say, the snowball effect,
02:27this is branded as a result.
02:30This results in Indiena,
02:33the retail customers,
02:35that massive sale action,
02:37there are those who want to expand their position,
02:40with maybe a stop loss,
02:42or they enter,
02:44let's say,
02:46with a margin,
02:48so that when the price drops,
02:50the choice is cut loss,
02:52to ease the margin ratio,
02:55or top up.
02:56Top up, I don't think it's an option
02:58that is prioritized
03:00in a market condition like this.
03:02So, yes,
03:03the effect is felt,
03:05especially the global uncertainty.
03:08We still protect the Fed too,
03:10even though the prediction
03:12still maintains a balance for the Fed.
03:14Okay, global uncertainty.
03:16If we talk about global uncertainty,
03:18the impact is not only on Indonesia,
03:20but other Asian regions too.
03:22But yesterday,
03:23the other regions were fine,
03:24even some were still strong at 1%,
03:26getting close to 1%.
03:27On average,
03:28it was green for the main Asian region index,
03:30such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore.
03:33Only the share price index
03:35that fell deep.
03:36If you said earlier that maybe
03:38most are still safe cash,
03:40facing global uncertainty too,
03:43is it reasonable
03:44when the weakness is up to 5%?
03:46The stock market must apply
03:48the trading halt
03:50at the end of 2020.
03:52Imagine,
03:53at the end of 2020,
03:54applied again in 2025
03:56with conditions that are not
03:58as bad as the pandemic actually.
04:00That may be a question
04:02from retail investors.
04:04Okay,
04:05this is a fun fact,
04:07not really fun,
04:08but still an interesting fact,
04:10that for the previous region,
04:12overall, it was actually strong.
04:14Well, it varies.
04:15For domestic,
04:17this is indeed
04:19from stimulus or factors,
04:21and the country also lacks support.
04:23In other words,
04:26this trading halt happens
04:28if by default,
04:29both are the worst.
04:30I remember it was the worst.
04:31At that time, it was the same.
04:32So, in 2020,
04:34it happened in March too,
04:35whether it's a coincidence or not.
04:37But indeed, from domestic,
04:39the policies that were made,
04:42I see that there is no one
04:44who can stimulate
04:46or give more stimulus
04:48for the domestic economy.
04:50So,
04:51from the trading halt,
04:53the deficit APBN,
04:55and also some projects,
04:57projects from the government
05:00that will consume a fairly large cost,
05:02this of course raises concerns
05:05from global investors,
05:07especially domestic,
05:09because it follows
05:11the development of the news,
05:13the development of the issue,
05:14day by day.
05:15So,
05:16I said the momentum is indeed
05:18together,
05:19so why when this regional
05:22is actually strengthening,
05:23there is a variation,
05:24there is also a thin one,
05:26because they are still waiting
05:28for the benefit
05:30from the results.
05:32But more to our domestic factors,
05:34there is indeed no additional stimulus,
05:36and also
05:38there is even negative news,
05:40one of them,
05:41which adds rumors,
05:43Mrs. Srimuliani,
05:44even though she has been rejected,
05:46and also earlier,
05:48the financial condition of our country,
05:51let's say,
05:52at the end of this quarter,
05:54people see,
05:55wow, there is a deficit,
05:57only two months,
05:58more than three months.
06:00So, the conditions from external
06:01have been pressing,
06:02and make the risk of investors
06:05decrease,
06:06but added again,
06:07should be given stimulus from domestic,
06:09how the trust of this investor
06:11is still increasing,
06:12the optimism is still increasing,
06:13plus with
06:15the noise from the country itself,
06:17which becomes a negative sentiment.
06:19But, there are also those who comment
06:22that the fundamental economy of Indonesia
06:23is still good,
06:24Indonesia's energy emits,
06:25including Bank Himbara,
06:26for example, is still very good,
06:27and the dividend is very high.
06:28Then, the deficit of the State Budget
06:30at the beginning of the year,
06:31as a result of the weakness of the purchasing power,
06:32temporarily,
06:33as a result of the tax system
06:34which is not yet optimal.
06:35Later, we will review
06:36and recommend some options
06:37from you.
06:38I'm Leda Apomirsa,
06:39stay tuned on Marketplus.