शेयर बाजार के लिए मौजूदा साल धमाकेदार रहा. लेकिनस सितंबर में ऑल टाइम हाई टच करने के बाद ऊपरी स्तरों से करेक्शन देखने को मिल रहा. बाजार बजट, इकोनॉमिक इवेंट्स जैसे फैक्टर्स के अलावा अमेरिकी फेड की पॉलिसी मीटिंग पर नजर रख रहा. हलचल वाले बाजार में कमाई का भी शानदार मौका बन रहा है. बाजार के एक्शन के बीच नए साल में कहां निवेश करें? किस सेक्टर में ज्यादा मुनाफे की उम्मीद है? शेयर बाजार के अलावा निवेश के लिए बेस्ट ऑप्शन कौन सा है? नए साल के लिए ओवरऑल स्ट्रैटेजी पर गुडरिटर्न्स की सीनियर एडिटर श्रुति सरकार ने Tradejini के को-फाउंडर और COO त्रिवेश डी से बातचीत की.
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#sharemarketinvestment #sharemarket #sharemarketprediction2025 #sharemarketnews #investmentstrategy #investmenttips #investmentplanning #sensex #nifty #nifty50 #banknifty #stockstobuy #stockmarket #sharemarket2025
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NewsTranscript
00:00In the last few weeks, we have seen a lot of volatility in Nifty and Sensex.
00:05But what's next? Will Sensex make a new record in the next year, 2025?
00:12Hello and welcome. My name is Shruti Sarkar and you are watching GoodReturns.
00:15And today we have with us, Trivesh D, CEO of TradeGenie. Welcome, Trivesh.
00:21Thank you, Shruti. What a pleasure being here.
00:23So, my first question to you is, we have seen a lot of volatility in Nifty and Sensex in the last few months.
00:38And now the question is, what is your focus for Nifty and Sensex in the coming year, 2025?
00:47For the first time, I think the market in the last five years has seen a drawdown.
00:52And for such a long time, we have seen markets going down, which we have not seen after COVID at all.
00:59So, it's a good realization for everyone that markets don't go only one way.
01:05There is also a downside and there is an upside.
01:08So, it's a very healthy correction that has happened in the market.
01:11We expect this correction going forward to remain for some more time.
01:16But I think overall, for a 2025 outlook, I think we are extremely bullish, very positive about the markets.
01:24We are expecting earnings to pick up. Quarter 2 was a little slow, but we expect quarter 3, quarter 4 to do much better.
01:32And I think the outlook for 2025 remains extremely positive and optimistic.
01:37And we believe that markets are going to bounce back from the current levels.
01:42They are at a very good support.
01:43But now we feel that the market is going to go up from here.
01:48So, I think it's going to do well.
01:50Second thing, which is the broader point is on how the global factors are affecting India,
01:56whether it is wars or it is high interest rates in other countries.
02:00I think those are affecting India with the US coming into the picture with the new president.
02:05Those policies are also impacting.
02:07So, I think those are also currently getting factored into the current markets.
02:11And they'll all take into consideration and do well in the coming few months.
02:28So, I think SMEs and IPOs have suddenly picked up interest.
02:33Everyone's eyes are on them.
02:35We have seen some mega listings even today.
02:38Some of the IPOs that have gone live today, they have seen a 60 and 40% listing day gains already.
02:45So, everyone's eyes are on the IPO.
02:47And it is agnostic of the sector.
02:49It is not a sector.
02:51But generally, SMEs' interest in people has increased a lot.
02:54The risk is also extremely high.
02:56But the reward also people feel is going to be extremely high.
03:01But at the current level, I think the mid-cap stocks are almost trading at 80 to 90 PE.
03:07Which is, from a finance background, I think it is extremely overvalued.
03:12So, for me, those sectors are something currently not to be looked at.
03:17There are certain stocks in that which are doing fairly okay.
03:20But generally, the sector, mid-cap as a sector, I think has extremely picked up its valuations.
03:27So, that is something that needs a little more rethinking.
03:31Blue-chip companies, the large caps are at a very good valuation of 21, 22, 25, 28, 30 PE.
03:39Which is in a very, very good state.
03:41Because earnings have to also now start expanding.
03:44Then the EPS also grows.
03:46And there is price expansion that happens in the market.
03:48So, mid-caps is something that is, for us, a little overvalued.
03:53The large caps seem to be fairly priced.
03:56But in terms of sector-specific, I think everyone's eyes are obviously on EV.
04:01Because everyone is looking at the future.
04:04Saying, what happens to combustion engines?
04:06What happens to diesel and petrol?
04:09And all the manufacturers of automobiles are saying by 2030,
04:12we have to go with this percentage in EV or go with full EV.
04:16The Middle East and South East countries have also started exploring other opportunities
04:21other than oil and gas.
04:22Because they have realized that this may not be a long-term play.
04:25So, EV is one sector that we are extremely bullish on.
04:27Renewable energies and the space around renewable energy is something that we are extremely bullish on.
04:33There are a lot of stocks that have got listed recently,
04:36which are doing well in the renewable energy side.
04:38So, I think that is something we are very bullish on.
04:41And the third, which is the consumption stories, is pharmaceuticals.
04:45Pharmaceuticals and healthcare as a sector, I think has not performed well the last two years.
04:52But it's time now for it to start to get the attention of people.
04:57And a lot of mutual fund participation also we see in the healthcare sector now.
05:01So, I think healthcare is something that is going to pick up steam in the coming few weeks, few months,
05:06and maybe even few quarters.
05:08That was very insightful, Trivesh.
05:10There is a slightly different kind of question.
05:12There are a lot of followers on our social media.
05:15There are GNZ followers.
05:17And some of them have recently joined the office.
05:19Some of them are in school colleges.
05:21Not in school, but in colleges.
05:23There are housewives.
05:25Which is a very small amount for a housewife.
05:31Sometimes it's 5000 or 10,000.
05:33So, what are your recommendations on who should invest in this?
05:38First, let me tell you what you should not do.
05:41F&O is to be avoided.
05:43If you are starting off your investment journey,
05:46F&O is not the place to be.
05:48Mutual fund is a great place to start.
05:51People should see mutual funds on how to pick up good mutual funds
05:57which start off with a very small SIP as well.
05:59Even 100, 200, 500, 1000 rupees SIP mutual funds are there.
06:04So, people, especially the first timers in the market,
06:09a mutual fund is an excellent opportunity.
06:12There are a lot of ETFs also which are available
06:15which help people invest smaller chunks of money into the markets directly.
06:20Direct stocks is not something that I would recommend if you are a first timer
06:25because it requires a lot of time, effort, dedication in terms of learning
06:30and updating yourself on stocks and their businesses.
06:33So, mutual funds and ETFs are definitely the place to be.
06:37The other thing is that they should also, first and foremost,
06:40start looking at savings.
06:42Because while we all talk about investment,
06:45you should also have a small amount of liquid cash available with you
06:49at any given point of time.
06:50And I think that's a very important thing for Gen Z,
06:53especially the so-called finfluencers are selling dreams
06:58that you can become rich overnight.
07:00Money doubles in 10 days, etc.
07:02Those are all not realistic, Shruti.
07:04We have been in this market far too long to realize those are not achievable.
07:08So, let's have a very, very conservative approach towards this.
07:12Have a very, very stable but secure approach to this
07:16saying that we will earn that 10%, 12%, 15% and do well with our money.
07:21And start small with mutual funds, start with smaller SIPs
07:25and gradually increase them.
07:27Very nice, Trivesh.
07:29I think this is a very important and serious topic
07:33that probably we should discuss more.
07:35You know, quick success, quick money, there's always a bigger risk.
07:39And there are a lot of finfluencers,
07:42our regulators are also looking into this.
07:46But this should probably be the theme of 2025, you know,
07:50that how to avoid wrong, misleading statements.
07:55I couldn't agree more with you, Shruti, on that.
07:58I think we are extremely, extremely scared of this entire piece
08:04because people get influenced very quickly.
08:07It's an unfortunate and an unfortunate thing that it happens.
08:12But when it comes to money matters, you need to do your own research.
08:16You cannot depend on somebody else saying do this, do that.
08:20Because it's finally your hard-earned money that is going to go,
08:23if it's going to go, it's not the influencer's money.
08:25So I think this cross-selling and mis-selling that's happening,
08:28like you rightly said, needs to stop.
08:30Regulators have been extremely active on this front,
08:33brought in a lot of regulations recently.
08:35It impacts the brokers and us as revenue.
08:38For Tradegenie, obviously, it's not a good thing business-wise.
08:41But as an investor myself in the market,
08:43I think it's very important that the regulator takes care of this piece
08:48on the influencers and how you can regulate them.
08:51And to ensure that people don't lose their money
08:53in this get-rich-quick scheme.
08:56Before I let you go, one last question.
08:59Apart from equities, what are the other asset classes
09:02you'd recommend where we can invest?
09:04Apart from equities, so to a broker, I think equities is our bread and butter.
09:09Obviously, equities is an important piece in any portfolio.
09:12But on a personal front, I think real estate
09:16and fractional real estate in that specifically,
09:19I think is picking up really well.
09:21And everybody can start early.
09:23Like how there is an SIP in stocks,
09:26where you do smaller portions into a larger fund house.
09:30There is an entire concept of satirization in real estate
09:34where you can own fractional ownership of real estate.
09:36I think that's a very important asset class
09:39which a lot of people miss because real estate is scary.
09:43People think that so much documentation,
09:46so much is to be done,
09:49who will do, who will take care of the property,
09:51your physical asset.
09:52But I think these REITs that are coming,
09:55the small and medium REITs,
09:56I think it's a very good play that people should look at.
09:59I think the first SM REIT got listed a week or maybe 10 days back.
10:03So that's a great opportunity.
10:05Second is obviously both physical and digital gold.
10:09I think people don't realize that when markets aren't doing well,
10:14typically gold is an inversely proportional asset.
10:18So while this is not health-proof,
10:21maybe after COVID things have changed,
10:23but historically gold and markets used to be inversely proportional.
10:26And for that gold is a great hedge to always hold on to.
10:30Whether physical, you want to do SGBs,
10:32you want to do ETFs,
10:34you want to do digital gold in whatever form.
10:36But gold is always a nice asset to hold on to.
10:40So for me, I think it's real estate and gold,
10:43especially fractional real estate is an excellent piece to continue to hold, Shruti.
10:48Perfect. Great.
10:49Thank you so much, Divesh, for joining us today.
10:52Thank you viewers for watching.
10:54Thank you, Shruti. Thank you.