2024 में Market Crash होगा? Biggest Stock Market Risks in 2024? Share Market Prediction| GoodReturns

  • 9 months ago
शेयर बाजार के लिए 2023 एक शानदार साल रहा. पॉजिटिव फैक्टर्स के दम पर शेयर बाजार (Share Market) में शानदार तेजी रही और निवेशकों की संपत्ति इस साल 81.90 लाख करोड़ रुपये बढ़ गई. लेकिन 2024 में शेयर मार्केट से क्या उम्मीद कर सकते हैं, डिटेल में समझिए Mr Amit Goel, Co-Founder & Chief Global Strategist, Pace 360 से

#sharemarket #newyear #year2024 #sharemarketprediction #stockmarketprediction2024 #sensex2024 #nifty2024
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00:00 In 2023, we have seen a lot of share market records, especially after November.
00:05 So, it looks like it is going to break.
00:07 If we talk about 2024, a new year is going to come.
00:11 What are your expectations from that?
00:14 How will 2024 be?
00:16 Look, I believe that when we were entering in 2023,
00:22 most of the investors, experts and economists were very pessimistic about 2023.
00:32 I am not talking about Indian investors and economists.
00:36 I am talking about US, UK, Europe and Asia.
00:42 There was a pessimism about all of them.
00:45 And the optimism was only about China.
00:49 Because China opened up its economy in December last year.
00:55 So, many people believed that the Chinese market,
00:58 which was underperforming for the last two years,
01:02 will do well this year because of the opening up of the economy.
01:07 And the other economies will go into recession this year.
01:12 And the stock markets will also go into a negative year.
01:19 But if I talk about global indices, China has been negative.
01:25 MSCI China has been about 13% negative this year.
01:30 If I talk about Nasdaq, it is more than 50% up.
01:35 And S&P is around 20% up.
01:38 So, this year was a very bad year.
01:42 People were expecting good performance, but it was very bad.
01:48 The Chinese market has been giving negative returns for the third year.
01:54 And where there was pessimism, we saw amazing rallies.
02:00 And we saw amazing economic strength,
02:03 whether we talk about India or the US.
02:07 Europe, of course, had a bit of a lacklustre economy.
02:11 Although the markets did well,
02:12 the European economy was quite flat this year.
02:17 I believe that 2024 is going to be a very different situation.
02:26 There is a lot of enthusiasm and optimism
02:32 that 2024 will be a very good year.
02:35 There will be no recession.
02:37 The stock markets will increase by 15%, 20%, 25% more.
02:44 My expectation is opposite.
02:48 When we were entering 2023, we were quite optimistic.
02:54 The whole world was pessimistic.
02:56 And now the situation is the opposite.
02:59 The whole world is optimistic.
03:02 I am quite pessimistic about 2024.
03:06 Because I feel that there are a lot of bubbles in the stock markets.
03:12 And this is not just in India.
03:14 There are bubbles in many markets outside India.
03:17 Brazil, Mexico, even Japanese indices,
03:22 or if I talk about Nasdaq 100,
03:25 it is possible that where we close this year, we go up by 2-4% more.
03:32 Between January and February.
03:35 But if I talk about the whole year,
03:37 I believe that 2024 will be a negative year
03:41 for Indian markets, US markets,
03:45 and for most of the stock markets in the world.
03:49 This is going to be a negative year.
03:51 The excitement and hope for the economy is that it will be a good year.
03:57 I see a slowdown in the second half of 2024.
04:03 The probability of recession, according to me,
04:06 the US recession probability is at least 70%.
04:11 And you know that the stock markets are forward looking.
04:16 So if the recession is going to come in the second half of 2024,
04:22 then you will start seeing its impact in the first half.
04:29 So I believe that January and February,
04:32 these two months can go sideways or mildly positive for the markets.
04:39 But if I talk about March to May,
04:42 I see the first cut in the world stock markets.
04:46 And the second half of the year, from July to November,
04:50 I see big cuts in the stock markets all over the world.

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