स्टॉक मार्केट के लिहाज से मौजूदा साल यानी 2024 जबरदस्त रहा. सेंसेक्स और निफ्टी ने इस साल अब तक 13-13 फीसदी से ज्यादा का रिटर्न दिया. दोनों इंडेक्स सितंबर में ऑल टाइम हाई टच किया. फिर ऊपरी स्तरों से करेक्शन देखने को मिला. मिडकैप और स्मॉलकैप सेक्टर फोकस में हैं. साथ ही चुनिंदा सेक्टर फोकस में है. इसमें कुछ सेक्टर निवेश का शानदार मौका बना है. नए साल में शेयर बाजार कि��� दिशा में आगे बढ़ेगा? 2025 में बाजार के किस सेक्टर में निवेश करना चाहिए? मिडकैप और स्मॉलकैप सेक्टर में कहां करें निवेश? गुडरिटर्न्स की श्रुति सरकार ने GoalFi के CEO रॉबिन आर्या से खास बातचीत की.
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#stockmarketanalysis #sensex #nifty50 #niftyprediction #niftyanalysis #niftyandbankniftyanalysisfortomorrow #sharemarketlive #sharemarketprediction #beststockstobuynow
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NewsTranscript
00:00Is December the right month to invest in the stock market?
00:04If you are a homemaker or a student, what kind of investment will be right for you?
00:09And in the coming year, what kind of changes can we expect from the stock market?
00:14Hello and welcome, my name is Shruti Sarkar and you are watching GoodReturns.
00:18And today we have with us Sneha Koddar, VP Research, Motilal Oswal. Welcome Sneha.
00:26A very good morning.
00:36My first question to you is that, you know, a new year is about to come.
00:41And this year we have seen a lot of ups and downs in Nifty and Sensex.
00:45And it's been very volatile in the past few weeks, if I could say.
00:50What is your forecast for the new year?
00:53Hi, so Shruti, basically, this year has been really good, as you said.
00:59In fact, we have seen stellar returns.
01:02But then, where the market has made a new high, at the same time, post touching new highs in September,
01:09we have seen a healthy correction of about 11-12%.
01:13So, this correction is very healthy in the sense because we have seen this correction after a long time.
01:22A couple of factors were responsible for this correction.
01:27Earnings growth moderated down a little, valuations were a little stretched.
01:31And plus, there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to geopolitical situation.
01:35And with not Trump coming in power, so the kind of tariffs that he might impose once he swears in the month of January.
01:44So, there are lots of ifs and buts which can play out for the year 2025.
01:50So, keeping that in mind, we witnessed a healthy correction.
01:54But, post that correction, we have seen some recovery.
01:59Now, that recovery was led by the confidence which the investors got.
02:04Like, you know, when BJP won the state elections of Maharashtra and Haryana,
02:09toh kahi na kahi it gave them a moral boost because Lok Sabha election ke baad,
02:14somehow, the dominance of BJP had reduced a little.
02:19So, with the state election winning, it again reboosted their entire confidence.
02:26And now, everyone is confident that the CAPEX cycle,
02:31jo ki first half of FY25, toh aasa standstill mein chala gaya tha,
02:37that CAPEX cycle is expected to revive from the second half.
02:41So, from the Indian economy point of view,
02:45though the earnings have moderated in the first half,
02:48but then we expect that from second half, the earnings might start reviving.
02:53Now, a few key reasons for this is, like, you know,
02:57one, the valuations, at least in the large caps,
03:00they have aligned to the long-term average.
03:04So, the large caps, at least, like, you know,
03:06they provide that comfort in terms of valuation.
03:09In terms of, like, you know, earnings revival, which I am talking about,
03:14how that will come.
03:15So, like, you know, the monsoon was good.
03:19So, because of which the rural economy is expected to,
03:22like, you know, the demand from the rural side is expected to revive a little.
03:27So, that will provide a push.
03:29And then, given the good monsoon, the kharif season is expected to be good.
03:33So, that is there.
03:35Plus, if the CAPEX revives from here onwards,
03:38so, obviously, the whole lot of industrials and, like,
03:42capital good theme will start playing out.
03:45And if you'll notice one thing, this time,
03:48the festive demand was pretty healthy.
03:51I mean, all the management talked about good demand
03:54that they witnessed during the festival season.
03:57And with wedding season, like, you know,
04:0130% more dates this time compared to last year.
04:05So, the demand will get a push from there as well.
04:08So, we believe that though FI25 overall earnings will end in single digit growth number,
04:16but then second half or the second coin,
04:19like, you know, the other side of the coin will be better than the first half.
04:23So, I mean, like, you know, and then from FI26,
04:27because of the low base of FI25,
04:29the earnings growth will bounce back in double digit.
04:32So, on this note, we believe that, you know,
04:35the things are not completely bad, at least on the domestic front.
04:39Inflation is a little on the higher side,
04:42but then it is expected to, like, you know,
04:45cool down once the good Kharif season will progress.
04:48So, probably the inflation will start coming down.
04:51Now, the only question is the geopolitical situation,
04:54which is not really in our control.
04:57And what really will, like, you know,
05:00Trump do once he comes in power will actually provide the real,
05:04like, you know, direction to the market.
05:07Right, that's quite nice summary.
05:09I think what we'll also add on is monetary policy.
05:13The new governor of RBI has come and we are expecting,
05:16most specialists are expecting that, you know,
05:20a rate cut is going to come in February.
05:23So, I think that will also decide the direction of the market.
05:26Next year. Sneha, moving forward,
05:29this year we have seen many big IPOs, you know,
05:32Swiggy, NTPC Green and Wari Engineering, etc.
05:35Do you have any recommendations for the newly listed companies,
05:41what investors should look at?
05:43See, we like Swiggy, we like NTPC Green,
05:47Wari to some extent we really like the company,
05:50but then the only challenge with Wari is that
05:53because it is in the solar energy space and,
05:56like, you know, the major market for Wari is US market.
06:00So, we really, like, you know, not sure,
06:03Trump, what kind of, like, you know,
06:05tariffs he would impose on the solar modules and all.
06:09So, there we are a little skeptical till we get the clear cut clarity.
06:15Otherwise, Wari is the largest, like, you know, solar player.
06:19So, obviously, like, you know,
06:20and with very good healthy financials.
06:23So, we were quite confident on Wari,
06:26but then with Trump, like, you know,
06:28there's a lot of uncertainty, which is overhang,
06:31which is there on the stock.
06:32We're quite positive on NTPC Green as well,
06:35because looking at the portfolio that they have built so far,
06:40it is actually remarkable and they have got long,
06:44like, you know, goals set for themselves
06:47over the next five years, wherein they plan to take,
06:51I mean, like, you know,
06:52almost triple their capacity over the next five years,
06:55which is if they are actually able to act upon it,
06:59this will tremendously drive the growth potential for the company.
07:03So, NTPC Green, we're quite positive because, I mean,
07:07the government has got a huge focus on the overall green energy space.
07:12So, there are a lot of incentives,
07:15which is being given out.
07:16A lot of supportive policies are being rolled out
07:20in order to push the overall renewable energy.
07:24And NTPC being the largest player, obviously, stands to benefit.
07:30And when we talk about Swiggy, so, like, you know,
07:34Swiggy is operating in a duopoly market.
07:38You know, they have always been an innovator.
07:41Like, you know,
07:42it was Swiggy who came out with the concept of food delivery
07:46or they came out with the concept of quick commerce.
07:49Though they couldn't really, like, you know,
07:51kept pace with it and somewhere Zomato took over them.
07:55But then we believe that that innovation blood is there in them.
07:59They have come out with this 10 minutes delivery concept bolt
08:04in the food delivery space,
08:09which, like, you know, has got a very good response of late.
08:13And they're actually expanding it to various cities.
08:17So, they had launched it in just a few cities
08:19and now they're taking it on a larger scale.
08:21So, like, you know, that innovation blood is there.
08:25Now, what they really need to do is, like, you know,
08:27put all these strategies in place and capture the market.
08:31So, like, you know, if we compare both Zomato and Swiggy,
08:36both their food delivery business is stable and is doing pretty well.
08:40But Zomato has taken an upper hand in case of quick commerce,
08:44wherein Blinkit is doing very well compared to the Instamart,
08:48which belongs to Swiggy.
08:49So, therein, like, you know, Swiggy has to ramp up
08:53by, say, opening more dark stores
08:57and improving the profitability of each store compared to Zomato.
09:02So, if they are able to act upon it,
09:05then, I mean, see, the market potential is really huge.
09:10So, the market can absorb both the players.
09:12It's not about, like, you know, who will survive or who will not survive.
09:16So, it's just they need to work around their economics and become profitable.
09:21Blinkit is expected to become profitable by end of FY25
09:25or probably max by first quarter of FY26.
09:28Instamart will take some time to become profitable.
09:31So, they really need to, like, you know, work around
09:34and come up with strategy which will make them a profitable platform.
09:38And then, like, you know, both the players can actually coexist together.
09:43So, we're quite positive on Swiggy so far
09:46and hopefully, like, you know, the company should be able to work their way out.
09:51Right.
09:52Sneha, our social media, you know, readers, users,
09:58they keep sending us a lot of questions.
10:01You know, for homemakers or for students,
10:04probably those who don't have a lot of money to invest,
10:08but they still want to invest in some sectors or, you know, some plan,
10:13but they are not aware of where to invest,
10:16whether to invest in stocks or SIP or put it in a mutual fund.
10:20What are your recommendations for them?
10:23Shruti, this is a very interesting question.
10:25So, I hope this message is passed on to everyone through you.
10:30When you are an initial investor,
10:33you shouldn't really burn your hands with F&O or, like, you know,
10:37investing in any small cap companies.
10:40I mean, what is the mentality at that time?
10:43Like, if my neighbor gives me a tip, I invest in it
10:48without really knowing about the company because it's easy to enter.
10:52But then exit becomes really difficult and you end up making losses.
10:56So, as a starter, what you should really do is start with SIP in mutual fund
11:03or start with investment in index fund ETFs.
11:06So, through that, you will learn to track your market,
11:10you will understand its volatility and then once you are comfortable with it,
11:14then start investing in thematic funds and all
11:17and then smaller investments can be done in the stocks.
11:21But stocks, maybe I would suggest, go with, like, you know,
11:25investment in the cash market rather than F&O in the initial stage.
11:30Understand the market, understand the volatility,
11:32how different events, be it domestic, be it, like, you know, global,
11:37how they really impact the market and what is the kind of, like, you know,
11:42ups and downs that you see.
11:44So, that understanding is very important before you become, like, you know,
11:48intraday trader or a short-term trader.
11:51So, start as a long-term investor.
11:54Do a little reading, understand about the company and start with safe stocks,
11:59like, you know, large caps, blue chips or, like, you know,
12:02good known names in case of mid caps.
12:06And once you, like, you know, get that confidence,
12:09after that, you can explore as much as you want in the market.
12:13I am not saying that there will be no loss, obviously, like, you know,
12:16that's part and parcel of the investing journey.
12:19And unless and until you don't make losses, obviously, you will not learn.
12:23So, that's the entire process.
12:26And obviously, everyone should witness the bull and the bear face of the market.
12:32But having said that, as an initial investor,
12:36with a little selective approach, one should actually navigate the market.
12:41Right. Very, very well summarized, Sneha.
12:44I think it was a fantastic way of putting things in perspective.
12:49You know, if we don't have knowledge, then we should play it safe,
12:53probably for the first initial years.
12:56It was lovely talking to you, Sneha.
12:58Thank you so much for joining us.
13:00And I wish you, you know, a great year ahead.
13:03Thank you viewers for watching us.
13:05Thank you, Shruti.